18 Oct 2024 Earnings Summary CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update DPC Dash (1405 HK) Our view on placement by Domino's Pizza What is new? Sales of shares by the 2nd largest shareholder of DPC Dash (1405 HK). Domino's Pizza (DPZ US), the 2nd largest shareholder of DPC Dash (1405 HK), has sold 10mn shares (about 7.66% of total shares issued), at the price of HK$ 65.0 per share, with a 12.8% discount to last closing price of HK$ 74.55. After this trade, Domino's Pizza's ownership ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 92.30, compared to the current price of HKD 69.00 [2]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing a period of increasing momentum and enhanced liquidity following the announcement of a major shareholder, Domino's Pizza LLC, agreeing to sell 10 million shares, representing approximately 7.66% of the total issued share capital [2]. - The company has successfully expanded its store count to 978 in Q3 2024, with plans to exceed 1,000 stores by November 2024. It has achieved positive same-store sales growth for 29 consecutive quarters [2]. - The company reported a turnaround in net profit for the first half of 2024, with an average daily sales per store of RMB 13,515, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.1% [2]. - The company plans to open 240 new stores in 2024, having already added 210 stores by Q3, indicating confidence in meeting its annual target [2]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at HKD 3,051 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 51%. Revenue is expected to reach HKD 4,038 million in 2024, representing a growth rate of 32% [3]. - The company anticipates a significant increase in net profit, from a loss of HKD 27 million in 2023 to a profit of HKD 87 million in 2024, marking a growth rate of 428% [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to improve from -0.20 in 2023 to 0.67 in 2024, with further increases to 1.73 in 2025 and 2.52 in 2026 [3]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 94 in 2024, decreasing to 25 by 2026, indicating improving profitability [3]. Operational Highlights - The company has established a strong membership program, "达人荟," which has attracted 21.7 million members, contributing to its sales growth [2]. - The average payback period for new stores opened in 12 cities is under 9 months, demonstrating effective market entry strategies [2]. - The company maintains a healthy balance sheet with a debt-to-asset ratio of 52.32% and a net asset value per share of RMB 16.53 [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expectations of significant growth in adjusted net profit from 2024 to 2026 [1] Core Views - The company's brand momentum is strong, with leading same-store sales and store expansion performance, indicating a positive fundamental outlook [1] - The company is in a rapid store expansion phase, with a plan to open 240 new stores in 2024, aiming to surpass 1,000 stores by the end of the year, representing a year-over-year growth rate of over 30% [1] - The company's 1H24 revenue reached RMB 2.04 billion, a 48% increase year-over-year, with adjusted net profit turning positive at RMB 50.89 million and adjusted EBITDA growing by 84% to RMB 230 million [1] - Despite industry pressures, the company achieved a 3.6% year-over-year growth in same-store sales in 1H24 [1] Financial Performance and Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 4.282 billion in 2024E to RMB 6.945 billion in 2026E, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28.01% [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase significantly from RMB 19 million in 2024E to RMB 199 million in 2026E, with a CAGR of 359.25% [3] - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to grow from RMB 1.1 billion in 2024E to RMB 3.2 billion in 2026E, with a CAGR of 95% [1] - The company's ROE (Return on Equity) is expected to improve from 0.91% in 2024E to 8.44% in 2026E [3] Store Expansion and Market Position - The company is on track to reach the milestone of 1,000 stores by the end of 2024, reflecting a strong expansion strategy [1] - The company's competitive advantage in the pizza category is highlighted, with a focus on rapid store expansion and market penetration [1] Shareholder and Brand Relationship - Domino's Pizza LLC, a major shareholder, sold 10 million shares (7.66% of the company's equity) but remains supportive of the company's long-term growth, holding a 6.21% stake post-sale [1] - The sale is seen as a liquidity improvement measure, with no impact on the company's master franchise agreement with Domino's Pizza, Inc [1] Financial Ratios and Valuation - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 426.82 in 2024E to 41.29 in 2026E, indicating improving profitability and valuation [3] - The P/B ratio remains stable at 3.89 from 2024E to 2026E, reflecting consistent asset valuation [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 78.47 [7][8]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a milestone of 1,000 stores by Q4 2024, indicating strong growth potential and improved profitability due to economies of scale [2][4]. - The major shareholder, Domino's Pizza LLC, is selling 10 million shares, which is 7.66% of the issued share capital, but this is not expected to negatively impact the company's operations or franchise relationships [2][3]. - The company has shown resilience with a positive same-store sales growth for 29 consecutive quarters, and the membership base has reached 21.7 million, contributing to demand growth [4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - As of September 30, 2024, the company operates 978 stores, with a net increase of 210 stores in the year and 64 stores in Q3 [4]. - The company has achieved a turnaround in profitability with positive adjusted and net profit in the first half of 2024 [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at RMB 40.80 billion, RMB 53.69 billion, and RMB 68.24 billion respectively, with a significant growth rate of 33.73% in 2024 [6][12]. - The adjusted EPS is forecasted to be RMB 0.81, RMB 1.40, and RMB 2.54 for 2024-2026 [5][12]. Valuation Metrics - The report uses a price-to-sales (PS) ratio of 2.3x for 2024, reflecting a premium due to the company's strong growth prospects [5]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately HKD 9.003 billion, with a closing price of HKD 69.00 as of October 17, 2024 [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [2][7]. Core Views - The major shareholder, Domino's Pizza LLC, sold 10 million shares, representing 7.66% of the company's equity, to improve liquidity while still expressing confidence in the company's long-term growth [2]. - The company reported significant financial improvements, with a revenue of 2.04 billion RMB in the first half of 2024, a 48% increase year-on-year, and an adjusted net profit of 50.89 million RMB, marking a turnaround from losses [2]. - The company is on track to exceed 1,000 stores by the end of 2024, with a projected growth rate of over 30% year-on-year in store count [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue growth rates are projected at 40.37% for 2024, 26.71% for 2025, and 28.01% for 2026, with expected revenues of 4.28 billion RMB, 5.43 billion RMB, and 6.95 billion RMB respectively [5]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 19 million RMB in 2024, with significant growth anticipated in subsequent years, reaching 199 million RMB by 2026 [5]. - The adjusted net profit is forecasted to be 1.1 billion RMB in 2024, 1.6 billion RMB in 2025, and 3.2 billion RMB in 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 1145%, 50%, and 95% respectively [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company shows robust fundamentals and improved liquidity following a major shareholder's reduction in holdings, which is expected to enhance trading liquidity and attract long-term investors [4][3]. - The company has consistently achieved positive same-store sales growth for 29 consecutive quarters since the current management team took over in Q3 2017 [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 42.35 billion, 53.65 billion, and 67.83 billion RMB, representing year-on-year growth of 39%, 27%, and 26% respectively [4]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are 1.10 billion, 1.56 billion, and 2.59 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 1156%, 42%, and 66% respectively [4]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios corresponding to the adjusted net profits are projected to be 75x, 53x, and 32x for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4]. Operational Highlights - As of Q3 2024, the company operates 978 stores, with a net increase of 146 stores in H1 2024 and 64 stores in Q3 2024, achieving its annual opening target [4]. - The company plans to open approximately 300 to 350 new stores in 2025 and 2026 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The recent shareholding structure update is expected to improve liquidity and broaden the shareholder base without affecting the company's fundamental operations [3]. - The company has demonstrated strong operational resilience, achieving positive same-store sales growth for 29 consecutive quarters and plans to exceed 1,000 stores by November [3]. - The company is at a profit inflection point, with significant market penetration opportunities remaining [3]. Financial Forecasts and Indicators - Revenue is projected to grow from 3,051 million RMB in FY2023 to 6,907 million RMB in FY2026, with growth rates of 51.0%, 40.2%, 27.6%, and 26.5% respectively [4][10]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to increase from 9 million RMB in FY2023 to 269 million RMB in FY2026, reflecting growth rates of 1,151%, 45%, and 68% [4][10]. - Adjusted EPS is forecasted to rise from 0.07 RMB in FY2023 to 2.06 RMB in FY2026, with corresponding P/E ratios decreasing from 939 to 31 [4][10]. - The company’s net profit margin is projected to improve from -0.87% in FY2023 to 2.59% in FY2026 [10]. Operational Performance - The company has maintained a net profit margin of 0.5% and an adjusted net profit margin of 2.5% for the first half of FY2024, with a store operating profit margin of 14.5% [3]. - Membership has grown to 21.7 million, indicating strong customer engagement [3]. Shareholder Structure - Domino's Pizza LLC has reduced its stake from 13.87% to 6.21% through an off-market block trade, while committing to a 90-day lock-up on the remaining shares [2][3].

Revenue and Profitability - Revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 2,041,461 thousand, representing a 48.3% increase from RMB 1,376,370 thousand for the same period in 2023[9]. - The company reported a net profit attributable to owners of RMB 10,907 thousand for the six months ended June 30, 2024, a 24.6% increase from RMB 8,751 thousand in the same period last year[9]. - Adjusted EBITDA for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 233,387 thousand, an increase of 83.7% compared to RMB 127,022 thousand in 2023[9]. - Store-level operating profit for the same period was RMB 296,155 thousand, up 59.0% from RMB 186,289 thousand in the previous year[9]. - Store-level EBITDA for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 393,902 thousand, reflecting a 53.0% increase from RMB 257,421 thousand in 2023[9]. - The adjusted EBITDA margin for the six months ended June 30, 2024, improved to 11.4%, up from 9.2% in the previous year[9]. - Basic earnings per share remained stable at RMB 0.08 for both the six months ended June 30, 2024, and June 30, 2023[148]. Store Expansion and Membership - The total number of stores as of June 30, 2024, reached 914, up from 768 as of December 31, 2023, and 672 as of June 30, 2023[14]. - The company expanded its presence in new growth markets, increasing the number of stores to 551 as of June 30, 2024, from 417 as of December 31, 2023[14]. - The number of stores in Beijing and Shanghai increased to 363 as of June 30, 2024, from 351 as of December 31, 2023[14]. - Membership increased to 19.4 million as of June 30, 2024, up from 10.9 million as of June 30, 2023, with membership contributing 63.6% of total revenue[19]. Sales Performance - Same-store sales growth (SSSG) for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was 3.6%, down from 8.8% for the same period in 2023[17]. - Average daily sales per store increased by 10.1% to RMB 13,515 for the six months ended June 30, 2024, from RMB 12,275 for the same period in 2023[25]. Expenses and Costs - Raw materials and consumables cost reached RMB 557.8 million, up RMB 177.4 million or 46.6% from RMB 380.4 million in the same period of 2023, accounting for 27.3% of total revenue[28]. - Employee compensation expenses totaled RMB 711.9 million, an increase of RMB 166.1 million or 30.4% from RMB 545.8 million in 2023, representing 34.9% of total revenue[29]. - Rent expenses amounted to RMB 201.7 million, up RMB 62.3 million or 44.7% from RMB 139.4 million in 2023, with rent costs accounting for 9.9% of total revenue[32]. - Advertising and promotion expenses were RMB 109.3 million, an increase of RMB 28.2 million or 34.8% from RMB 81.1 million in 2023, accounting for 5.4% of total revenue[38]. Financial Position - Total assets as of June 30, 2024, amounted to RMB 4,521,811 thousand, up from RMB 4,145,755 thousand at the end of 2023, representing a 9.1% increase[110]. - The company's equity attributable to equity holders increased to RMB 2,156,184 thousand from RMB 2,099,131 thousand, a rise of 2.7%[112]. - The total liabilities as of June 30, 2024, amounted to RMB 2,328,410 thousand, compared to RMB 1,994,201 thousand as of December 31, 2023, indicating an increase of 16.8%[127]. - The debt-to-equity ratio was approximately 9.3% as of June 30, 2024, a slight decrease from 9.5% as of December 31, 2023[55]. Cash Flow and Investments - The net cash inflow from operating activities for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 376.8 million, compared to RMB 174.8 million for the same period in 2023[52]. - Cash and bank balances increased by 6.9% to RMB 1,089.3 million as of June 30, 2024, from RMB 1,019.2 million as of December 31, 2023[52]. - The company incurred a cumulative loss of RMB (1,111,342) thousand as of June 30, 2024, compared to RMB (1,086,895) thousand at the end of the previous year[115]. Shareholder Information and Corporate Governance - The company did not declare an interim dividend for the six months ended June 30, 2024[68]. - The company has established a nomination committee and a remuneration committee in addition to the audit and risk committee[71]. - The company’s major shareholders hold a total of 79,009,570 shares, representing 60.6% of the total[81]. - The total number of issued shares as of June 30, 2024, is 130,446,977 shares[84]. Risk Management and Compliance - The group faced various financial risks, including market risk, credit risk, and liquidity risk, with risk management policies remaining unchanged as of June 30, 2024[126]. - The independent auditor found no issues that would lead to a belief that the interim financial information was not prepared in accordance with International Accounting Standard 34[107].

同店逆势增长，关注入"通"机会 ——达势股份 24H1 点评 达势股份（1405.HK）/餐饮 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024 年 09 月 03 日 [Table_Title] 评级：买入（维持） 市场价格：69.95 港元 分析师：郑澄怀 执业证书编号：S0740524040004 Email：zhengch@zts.com.cn [Table_Industry] 分析师：张友华 执业证书编号：S0740523110006 Email：zhangyh@zts.com.cn | --- | --- | |-----------------------|-------| | | | | 总股本 ( 百万股 ) | 130 | | | | | 流通股本 ( 百万股 ) | 130 | | 市价 ( 港元 ) | 69.95 | | 市值 ( 百万港元 ) | 9,125 | | 流通市值 ( 百万港元 ) | 9,125 | [Table_QuotePic] 股价与行业-市场走势对比 达势股份 恒生指数 -10% -5% 0% 5% 2024-07-18 2024-08-18 公司持有该股票比例 相关报告 1 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1]. Core Views - The report highlights strong performance in new growth markets, achieving annual profitability for the first time [1][3]. - The company reported a revenue of 2.04 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 48% [3]. - The adjusted net profit for the same period was 50 million yuan, with an adjusted net profit margin of 2.5%, an increase of 3.8 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The report anticipates continued growth in store openings and sales, with a target of 240 new stores in 2024 and 300-350 stores in 2025-2026 [3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 1H24 was 2.04 billion yuan, up 48% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 72.7%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points [3]. - Adjusted EBITDA reached 230 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 84%, with an EBITDA margin of 11.4%, up 2.2 percentage points [3]. - The company has maintained a strong same-store sales growth for 28 consecutive quarters, with a same-store revenue growth of 3.6% in 1H24 [3]. Store Expansion and Market Strategy - As of June 30, the total number of stores reached 914, with a net addition of 146 stores in 1H24 [3]. - The company has expanded into four new cities and plans to continue its aggressive expansion strategy [3]. - Membership growth has been significant, with a total of 19.4 million members, contributing 63.6% to revenue, an increase of 5.1 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Profitability and Cost Management - The report indicates a clear operating leverage effect, with a notable increase in profitability [3]. - The company’s adjusted net profit for 2024 is projected to be 110 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1203% [5]. - The report also provides updated revenue forecasts for 2024-2026, with expected revenues of 4.21 billion yuan in 2024, 5.28 billion yuan in 2025, and 6.76 billion yuan in 2026 [5].