东吴证券研报指出，赣锋锂业25Q4业绩亮眼，扣非净利略好于预期。公司预计2025年归母净利为11.0至 16.5亿元，同比增153%~180%，其中，公司预计2025Q4归母净利润为10.7至16.2亿元，同比扭亏为盈， 环比增93%~192%。由于公司自供碳酸锂，预计26年单wh利润有望略微提升至0.02元/wh。固态方面， 公司布局固态电解质、金属锂负极、固态电池，多种技术路线布局，稳步推进。考虑到碳酸锂价格上涨 贡献弹性，展望26年，若按照碳酸锂价格15万元/吨，预计锂盐对应可贡献90亿元+利润，因此，上调公 司25-27年归母净利至14.8/94/109亿元（原预期4.3/20/32亿元），同比+172%/+532%/+16%，对应 PE103/16/14倍，考虑公司碳酸锂涨价弹性、公司固态全产业链布局，给与26年25x估值，对应目标价 112元，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recovery in lithium prices is primarily benefiting mining assets and investment returns rather than evenly distributing across the lithium salt processing segment [5][10]. Group 1: Company Performance Forecasts - Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium both released performance forecasts for 2025, indicating a shift from significant losses in 2024 to profitability [3]. - Ganfeng expects a net profit of 1.1 billion to 1.65 billion yuan for 2025, recovering from a loss of 2.074 billion yuan in the previous year [6]. - Tianqi anticipates a net profit of 369 million to 553 million yuan, compared to a loss of 7.905 billion yuan in the same period last year [8]. Group 2: Profit Contribution Analysis - Both companies' profit increases are heavily concentrated in the fourth quarter, closely linked to improvements in upstream resource rights and related investment returns [4]. - Ganfeng's fourth-quarter contribution is estimated to be between 1.074 billion and 1.624 billion yuan, which is crucial for the overall annual results [7]. - Tianqi's fourth-quarter net profit is projected to be between 189 million and 373 million yuan, also significantly impacting the annual profit recovery [8]. Group 3: Investment and Asset Performance - Ganfeng attributes its profit reversal to changes in financial assets and investment returns, including a fair value change gain of approximately 1.03 billion yuan from its holdings in Pilbara Minerals [8]. - Tianqi's profit recovery is supported by increased investment returns from its joint venture SQM, along with gains from currency exchange and reduced asset impairment losses [12][13]. Group 4: Industry Comparison - The recovery in the lithium industry is not uniform; differences arise from resource endowments, cost mechanisms, and production capacity realization [14]. - Yahua Group expects a net profit of 600 million to 680 million yuan for 2025, attributing improvements to rising lithium salt prices and increased sales in the latter half of the year [14]. - Cangge Mining forecasts a net profit of 3.7 billion to 3.95 billion yuan, driven by improvements in both potassium chloride and lithium carbonate businesses [16]. Group 5: Challenges in the Industry - Some lithium salt companies are still facing losses; Shengxin Lithium Energy anticipates a net loss of 600 million to 850 million yuan for 2025 due to industry supply-demand dynamics and exchange losses [16]. - Tibet Mining expects a net loss of 20 million to 40 million yuan, indicating that price rebounds are insufficient to improve current financial statements [17].

（文章来源：中国证券报·中证金牛座） 其中，一家不愿具名的企业负责人对记者表示："公司产品供不应求，产销正常，现在没有什么库存。" 上海钢联数据显示，2025年下半年以来，电池级碳酸锂价格持续上涨，从7万元/吨左右一度涨至17万 元/吨左右。 业内人士表示，碳酸锂价格的回暖，有望带动拥有自有矿和盐湖的生产企业业绩修复。 1月30日，锂矿板块大跌，截至14:40，锂矿板块跌超6%，西部矿业、中矿资源、天齐锂业等跌超7%。 对此，赣锋锂业、雅化集团等多家锂矿企业回应中国证券报·中证金牛座记者称，公司生产经营一切正 常。 ...

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market indices collectively rose this month, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 6.85% to close at 27,387.11 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 3.67% to 5,718.18 points, and the China Enterprises Index up by 4.53% to 9,317.09 points [2] - The Hang Seng Index showed resilience, climbing from a low of 26,498.35 points at the beginning of the month to a recent high of 28,056.10 points before a slight pullback [3] Sector Performance - High-performing sectors this month included AI, consumer goods, and real estate, driven by favorable policies and strong earnings [4] - Notable stock performances included: - Zhizhu (02513.HK) surged by 94.66%, recognized as the "first global large model stock" with strong market confidence in its AGI technology [4] - Woan Robotics (06600.HK) also rose by 94.67%, benefiting from AI and smart manufacturing policies [4] - Mingming Hen Mang (01768.HK) increased by 73.71%, supported by impressive revenue growth of 75.2% year-on-year [4][5] - Changfei Optical Fiber (06869.HK) saw a 61.90% increase, driven by rising demand for optical fiber due to AI computing infrastructure [5] Declining Stocks - Declining stocks included: - Zhu Feng Gold (01815.HK), which fell by 22.13% due to fluctuations in international gold prices [8] - Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK) decreased by 16.46% as lithium carbonate futures prices dropped significantly [9] Institutional Insights - Institutional perspectives suggest a continuation of the spring market rally, focusing on dual drivers of policy and earnings [10] - Everbright Securities noted that the Hong Kong market is transitioning from being driven by funds to being driven by earnings, with a structural rebound expected in Q1 [10] - CITIC Securities highlighted three key investment directions: "14th Five-Year Plan" policies, sectors benefiting from policy reversals, and areas likely to gain from the spring rally [10] Education and Technology Sector - The education sector saw significant gains, with China Spring (01969.HK) rising by 22.76% due to AI integration in educational applications [11] - Longfei Optical Fiber (06889.HK) also experienced a slight increase, reflecting ongoing high demand for computing power [13] Commodity Market Impact - The commodity market faced volatility, with gold and other precious metals experiencing significant price fluctuations, impacting related stocks negatively [15][18] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange announced margin adjustments to curb excessive speculation, which may further influence market stability [17]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 27,387.11, down by 580.98 points or 2.08%, with a trading volume of 301.6 billion [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index fell to 5,718.18, decreasing by 122.92 points or 2.10%, with a trading volume of 63.1 billion [1] - The Hang Seng Biotechnology Index dropped to 15,420.07, down by 371.54 points or 2.35%, with a trading volume of 15.3 billion [1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreased to 9,317.09, down by 235.49 points or 2.47%, with a trading volume of 108.8 billion [1] - The Hang Seng Composite Index closed at 4,196.05, down by 89.51 points or 2.09%, with a trading volume of 212.5 billion [1] Sector Performance - Gold stocks experienced significant declines, with companies such as Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining and Shandong Gold falling over 14%, while Long Resources, Datang Gold, Zijin Mining International, and China National Gold all dropped more than 10% [1] - Lithium mining stocks also saw a downturn, with Ganfeng Lithium decreasing by nearly 11% and Tianqi Lithium falling over 10% [2]

业内人士表示，碳酸锂价格的回暖，有望带动拥有自有矿和盐湖的生产企业业绩修复。 1月30日，锂矿板块大跌，截至14:40，锂矿板块跌超6%，西部矿业、中矿资源、天齐锂业等跌超7%。 对此，赣锋锂业、雅化集团等多家锂矿企业回应中国证券报·中证金牛座记者称，公司生产经营一切正 常。 其中，一家不愿具名的企业负责人对记者表示："公司产品供不应求，产销正常，现在没有什么库存。" 上海钢联数据显示，2025年下半年以来，电池级碳酸锂价格持续上涨，从7万元/吨左右一度涨至17万 元/吨左右。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The data indicates significant outflows of main funds from various stocks, with notable declines in share prices across multiple sectors, particularly in the rare metals and non-ferrous metals industries [1][2][3] Group 1: Stock Performance and Fund Outflows - BlueFocus Media experienced a fund outflow of 1.638 billion yuan, with a share price decline of 3.59% [2] - Northern Rare Earth saw a fund outflow of 1.321 billion yuan, with a share price drop of 8.72% [2] - Zijin Mining reported a fund outflow of 1.256 billion yuan, with a decrease in share price of 8.33% [2] - Tongling Nonferrous Metals had a fund outflow of 1.232 billion yuan, with a share price decline of 10.01% [2] - Luoyang Molybdenum experienced a fund outflow of 1.128 billion yuan, with a share price drop of 9.21% [2] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The rare metals sector, represented by Northern Rare Earth and Luoyang Molybdenum, is facing significant fund outflows and price declines [2][3] - The non-ferrous metals sector, including companies like Zijin Mining and Tongling Nonferrous Metals, is also experiencing substantial outflows, indicating potential challenges in this industry [2][3] - The energy metals sector, represented by Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium, shows notable fund outflows, with share price declines of 8% and 7.46% respectively [2][3]

星展发表研报指，赣锋锂业预计2025年度净利润将介乎11亿至16.5亿元。该行预期，在江西锂矿获得采 矿许可前，锂价仍将维持高位，相信锂行业的盈利能力将于2026年触底反弹。该行维持赣锋锂业"买 入"评级，以预测市盈率40倍及H股较A股折让两成计，将H股目标价由39港元大幅上调至83港元，A股 目标价则由45元上调至92元。 ...

下跌，截至发稿，跌8.98%，报61.8港元，成交额5.47亿港元。 消息面上，赣锋锂业近日发布年度业绩预告，预计全年实现净利润11亿元至16.5亿元，同比增长153.04%至179.56%，去年同期亏损20.74亿元。值得注意的 是，公司持有的Pilbara Minerals股票价格变动带来的公允价值变动收益贡献约10.3亿元利润，期内扣非净利润亏损3亿元至6亿元。 东吴证券发布研报称，25Q4业绩亮眼，扣非净利略好于预期；25Q4锂盐出货环比持平，涨价贡献弹性。展望26年，该行预计公司锂盐出货量21万吨，同比 +25%，资源自供规模13-14万吨，若按照碳酸锂价格15万元/吨，对应可贡献90亿元+利润。 编辑/doris ...

Core Viewpoint - Ganfeng Lithium's stock experienced a significant decline of over 8% in early trading, currently down 6.77% at HKD 63.3, with a trading volume of HKD 440 million [1] Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit of between CNY 1.1 billion and CNY 1.65 billion for the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 153.04% to 179.56%, compared to a loss of CNY 2.074 billion in the same period last year [1] - A notable contribution of approximately CNY 1.03 billion to profit is attributed to fair value changes from the fluctuation in the stock price of Pilbara Minerals, while the non-recurring net profit is expected to show a loss between CNY 300 million and CNY 600 million [1] Market Outlook - Dongwu Securities reported that the performance for Q4 2025 is expected to be strong, with non-recurring net profit slightly exceeding expectations; lithium salt shipments are projected to remain stable quarter-on-quarter, with price increases contributing positively [1] - For 2026, the company is anticipated to achieve lithium salt shipments of 210,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 25%, with self-supply resources estimated at 130,000 to 140,000 tons; assuming a lithium carbonate price of CNY 150,000 per ton, this could contribute over CNY 9 billion in profit [1]