Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have been significantly influenced by speculative demand and short-term arbitrage, but long-term demand from central bank purchases and financial investments is expected to support gold prices, leading to a potential rise above $3,700 per ounce by the end of the year [1] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may signal interest rate cuts, which would support liquidity and consequently gold prices, amidst ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [1][2] - The gold stock ETF has shown a year-to-date net value increase of 29.36%, with a historical one-year profit probability of 100% [3] Group 2 - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Hong Kong and Shanghai Gold Industry Index account for 66.13% of the index [4] - The performance of the top ten holdings in the gold stock ETF shows mixed results, with some stocks experiencing declines while others, like Zijin Mining and Chow Tai Fook, have seen slight increases [7] - The gold stock ETF fund has a management fee rate of 0.50% and a custody fee rate of 0.10%, indicating a relatively low cost for investors [3]

Group 1 - Hong Kong gold stocks collectively declined, with Tongguan Gold (00340.HK) and Shandong Gold (017817.HK) falling over 3% [1] - China Silver Group (00815.HK), Lingbao Gold (03330.HK), and Zhaojin Mining (01818.HK) experienced declines exceeding 2% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance and strategy of the AI Fund, specifically the 富国港股通红利精选混合A fund, which reported a profit of 12.98 million yuan in Q2 2025 and a net asset value growth rate of 13.86% [3][8] - As of July 21, the fund's unit net value was 1.304 yuan, and it has a total scale of 261 million yuan [3][8] - The fund manager indicated an increase in positions in the non-ferrous sector, particularly in gold and copper, due to favorable price trends and high valuation attractiveness [3] Group 2 - The fund's performance metrics show a three-month net value growth rate of 14.80%, ranking 156 out of 615 comparable funds, and a six-month growth rate of 28.46%, ranking 33 out of 615 [3] - The fund's Sharpe ratio since inception is 0.3175, with a maximum drawdown of 9.86% since inception and a single-quarter maximum drawdown of 8.49% occurring in Q2 2025 [7] - The fund has a relatively high concentration of holdings, with the top ten stocks including Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, Tencent Holdings, China Mobile, Alibaba-W, and others [10]

Group 1: Gold Market Trends - Gold prices have recently surpassed $3400 per ounce, marking a significant increase of nearly 1.5% due to weakening of the US dollar and bond yields amid trade negotiation uncertainties [1] - The demand for gold is being supported by geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties, with the EU considering broader countermeasures against the US due to bleak prospects for a trade agreement [1][2] - Central banks are expected to continue increasing their gold reserves, with over 90% of surveyed central banks indicating plans to buy more gold in the next 12 months, the highest percentage since the survey began in 2019 [3] Group 2: Central Bank and Economic Factors - The trend of central banks purchasing gold remains strong, with China's gold reserves reported at 73.9 million ounces as of June, marking an increase for the eighth consecutive month [3] - The geopolitical risks and inflation concerns are driving investors towards gold as a defensive asset, with expectations of continued price increases in the coming weeks [2][4] - The Federal Reserve's potential for interest rate cuts and ongoing global uncertainties are expected to support a long-term upward trend in gold prices [4] Group 3: Company Insights - Zijin Mining (02899) is projected to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12% in gold production from 2020 to 2024, with strong performance in resource acquisition and production capabilities [5] - Zhaojin Mining (01818) benefits from excellent gold resources and ongoing projects that are expected to drive future growth, supported by rising gold prices due to geopolitical risks [6] - Shandong Gold (01787) has a rich resource base and ongoing expansion projects, with projected net profits increasing significantly from 30.30 billion to 59.38 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026 [6] - Lingbao Gold (03330) has substantial gold reserves and is implementing a "going out" strategy to focus on overseas quality resources, enhancing its growth potential [6]

金融界7月21日消息，上证指数高开高走，中证香港300上游指数 (H300上游，H30100)报2739.89点。 数据统计显示，中证香港300上游指数近一个月上涨3.08%，近三个月上涨17.66%，年至今上涨 12.89%。 据了解，中证香港300主题指数系列从中证香港300指数样本中根据中证行业分类选取符合相应主题的证 券作为指数样本，反映了在香港交易所上市各主题证券的整体表现。该指数以2004年12月31日为基日， 以1000.0点为基点。 资料显示，指数样本每半年调整一次，样本调整实施时间分别为每年6月和12月的第二个星期五的下一 交易日。特殊情况下将对指数进行临时调整。当样本退市时，将其从指数样本中剔除。样本公司发生收 购、合并、分拆等情形的处理，参照计算与维护细则处理。 本文源自：金融界 作者：行情君 从指数持仓来看，中证香港300上游指数十大权重分别为：中国海洋石油（28.06%）、中国石油股份 （13.23%）、紫金矿业（10.89%）、中国神华（9.44%）、中国石油化工股份（9.23%）、中国宏桥 （4.71%）、中煤能源（3.3%）、招金矿业（3.07%）、洛阳钼业（2.83%）、兖矿 ...

Group 1 - The CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Interconnection Small Comprehensive Materials Index reported a value of 4406.56 points, showing a monthly increase of 7.39%, a three-month increase of 14.25%, and a year-to-date increase of 15.75% [1] - The index is categorized into 11 industries based on the classification standards of the CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Index Series, which includes the CSI 500, CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Interconnection Small Comprehensive Index, and the CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Comprehensive Index [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (1.53%), Zhaojin Mining Industry (1.28%), China Rare Earth (1.16%), and others, indicating a diverse representation of companies in the materials sector [1] Group 2 - The market share of the index's holdings shows that Shenzhen Stock Exchange accounts for 49.61%, Shanghai Stock Exchange for 38.62%, and Hong Kong Stock Exchange for 11.76% [2] - In terms of industry composition, non-ferrous metals represent 40.64%, chemicals 37.39%, non-metallic materials 9.51%, steel 8.03%, and paper and packaging 4.43% [2] - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December, ensuring that the weight factors are updated accordingly [2]

Core Views - The report maintains a positive long-term outlook on gold, copper, and aluminum, emphasizing the importance of strategic metals [1][3] - In H1 2025, domestic economic indicators show signs of bottoming out, with improvements in real estate construction and a gradual shift towards new economic drivers [4][8] - The global economic landscape is being reshaped by fluctuating interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve and the impacts of trade wars, leading to significant changes in resource sectors [4][8] Investment Strategies - **Main Line 1: Expansion on the Denominator Side - Gold and Silver**: Focus on gold and silver, with specific attention to the performance of gold stocks and the potential for silver due to its high price ratio to gold [4][5] - **Main Line 2: Improvement on the Numerator Side - Aluminum, Copper, Tin**: Anticipate continued high profitability in aluminum due to falling costs, while remaining cautious of potential short-term demand weakness [4][7] - **Main Line 3: Key Strategic Metals**: Highlighting opportunities in rare earths and other strategic metals amid US-China tensions, particularly in six key strategic metals [4][7] - **Main Line 4: Supply-Side Disruptions from Anti-Competition**: The report suggests that supply-side constraints in sectors like lithium carbonate may present attractive bottom-fishing opportunities [4][7] Market Performance - The CRB metal spot index increased by 7.08% from the beginning of 2025 to June 30, 2025, indicating a general upward trend in metal prices [9][10] - Gold prices surged by 23.93% during the same period, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [12][14] - Industrial metals, particularly tin and copper, saw significant price increases of 19.91% and 15.59% respectively, while zinc prices fell by 5.55% [16][19] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global copper inventories saw a significant reduction, with LME copper stocks decreasing by 66.17% by June 30, 2025 [21][69] - The report anticipates limited growth in global copper supply due to insufficient capital expenditure in mining, projecting only a 2.3% increase in global copper production in 2025 [62][64] - The refined copper market is expected to remain slightly short, with a projected demand growth of 7.1% for 2025, supporting a high price center for copper [69] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector outperformed the broader market, with a cumulative increase of 19.17% from January to June 2025, compared to a 5.6% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index [38][40] - Sub-sectors such as tungsten, gold, and rare earths performed particularly well, with respective increases of 39.64%, 33.57%, and 31.88% [42][44] - Companies closely tied to resource price fluctuations, particularly in gold and rare earths, showed strong performance, while midstream processing companies faced challenges due to weak downstream demand [44]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the China Hong Kong 300 upstream index has shown positive performance, with a 0.94% increase over the past month, an 18.02% increase over the past three months, and a 12.03% increase year-to-date [1] - The China Hong Kong 300 upstream index is composed of securities selected based on the China Securities Industry Classification, reflecting the overall performance of various thematic securities listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1] - The index has a base date of December 31, 2004, with a base point of 1000.0 [1] Group 2 - The top ten holdings of the China Hong Kong 300 upstream index include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (28.76%), PetroChina Company Limited (13.17%), Zijin Mining Group (10.73%), China Shenhua Energy Company (9.47%), Sinopec Limited (9.06%), China Hongqiao Group (4.45%), China Coal Energy Company (3.29%), Zhaojin Mining Industry Company (3.19%), Luoyang Molybdenum Company (2.74%), and Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (2.33%) [1] - The index's holdings are entirely composed of securities listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with a 100% allocation [1] Group 3 - In terms of industry composition, the China Hong Kong 300 upstream index has a significant allocation to oil and gas at 51.38%, followed by precious metals at 15.91%, coal at 15.56%, and industrial metals at 14.64% [2] - The index samples are adjusted semi-annually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December each year [2] - Special circumstances may lead to temporary adjustments to the index, such as delisting of sample companies or corporate actions like mergers and acquisitions [2]

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Hong Kong 300 Materials Index has shown significant growth, with a 41.40% increase year-to-date, indicating strong performance in the materials sector [1][2]. Group 1: Index Performance - The China Securities Hong Kong 300 Materials Index reported a value of 2311.34 points, with a 6.83% increase over the past month and a 23.83% increase over the past three months [1]. - The index is designed to reflect the overall performance of different industries in the Hong Kong market, classified according to the China Securities industry classification standards [1]. Group 2: Index Composition - The top ten holdings in the China Securities Hong Kong 300 Materials Index include Zijin Mining (26.28%), China Hongqiao (10.9%), and Zhaojin Mining (7.98%) among others [1]. - The index is fully composed of stocks listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with a 100% representation [1]. Group 3: Industry Breakdown - The industry composition of the index shows that non-ferrous metals account for 78.94%, non-metallic materials for 15.04%, chemicals for 4.62%, and paper and packaging for 1.41% [2]. - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with changes implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December [2].

Investment Positives - Zhaojin Mining has resumed coverage with an OUTPERFORM rating and a target price of HK$27.00, implying a 27x 2025 estimated P/E ratio, indicating strong growth momentum as a leading gold producer and smelter in China [1] - The Haiyu Gold Mine, in which Zhaojin Mining holds a 70% stake, is expected to produce 15–20 tons of gold annually at full capacity, with the company's attributable output projected at approximately 10.5–14 tons, positioning it as one of China's largest gold mines [1][2] Global Expansion - The successful acquisition of Tietto Minerals and Xijin Mining marks Zhaojin Mining's global expansion efforts, with Tietto holding an 88% stake in the Abujar open-pit gold project in Côte d'Ivoire, expected to produce 5.28 tons of gold annually for the next nine years [3] - Xijin Mining operates the Komahun gold mine in Sierra Leone, producing 1.77 tons annually, which will help Zhaojin Mining leverage its experience for further global expansion, aiming for overseas profits to reach around 50% [4] Corporate Management and Efficiency - Zijin Mining became the second-largest shareholder of Zhaojin Mining in 2022, holding a 44% stake in the Haiyu Gold Mine, which is expected to create synergies in institutional mechanisms, investment development, and technological innovation [5] - A management reshuffle in 2023 has optimized corporate governance, leading to a decrease in the company's expense ratio since 2022, which, along with organic growth and external expansion, is anticipated to drive strong profit growth [5] Market Trends and Gold Prices - The trend of de-dollarization and potential interest rate cuts may support gold price growth, with falling real interest rates creating favorable conditions for gold investments [6] - Global central banks have been increasing net gold purchases, particularly from emerging countries, indicating sustained demand for gold investment [7] Financial Outlook - Zhaojin Mining's estimated EPS is projected at Rmb0.92 in 2025 and Rmb1.10 in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of 62%, with the stock currently trading at 20.2x 2025 estimated P/E [8] - The company is optimistic about its growth outlook, driven by its ability to convert quality resources into production capacity and long-term earnings [8]