Core Viewpoint - The continuous decline in spot gold prices has negatively impacted Hong Kong-listed gold stocks, with significant drops observed across various companies [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - Spot gold prices fell by 3.05% overnight, dropping below $3990 per ounce, and further declined to below $3980 per ounce during the Asian trading session [1]. - The decline in gold prices is attributed to easing trade tensions, which reduced demand for safe-haven assets [1]. Group 2: Company Stock Performance - China Silver Group saw a decline of nearly 5%, while Tongguan Gold dropped nearly 3% [1]. - Other notable declines include: - Zhaojin Mining down 2.52% - Zijin Mining down 2.55% - Chifeng Jilong Gold down 2.25% - China Gold International down 2.00% - Zijin Gold International down 2.04% - Lingbao Gold down 1.61% - Shandong Gold down 1.73% [1]. Group 3: Future Price Expectations - Analysts from Capital Economics have downgraded their gold price forecast, predicting a drop to $3500 per ounce by the end of next year, indicating a potential decline of over 12% from current levels [1].

Core Insights - The top three stocks with net inflows from southbound funds are Yingfu Fund (02800) with 1.995 billion, China National Offshore Oil Corporation (00883) with 1.424 billion, and SMIC (00981) with 636 million [1][2] - The top three stocks with net outflows are Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) with -299 million, GigaDevice Semiconductor (02367) with -179 million, and Zhaojin Mining (01818) with -162 million [1][2] - In terms of net inflow ratios, GX Hengsheng Technology (02837) leads with 89.26%, followed by Far East Horizon (03360) at 80.25%, and Tuhu-W (09690) at 67.29% [1][2] - The stocks with the highest net outflow ratios include Huadian International Power (01071) at -74.23%, CIMC Enric (03899) at -63.04%, and Weilu Group (01196) at -57.66% [1][2] Net Inflow Rankings - Yingfu Fund (02800) recorded a net inflow of 1.995 billion, representing a 15.63% increase, with a closing price of 26.420 [2] - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (00883) saw a net inflow of 1.424 billion, with a net inflow ratio of 46.50% and a closing price of 19.500 [2] - SMIC (00981) had a net inflow of 636 million, with a net inflow ratio of 10.38% and a closing price of 74.850 [2] Net Outflow Rankings - Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) experienced a net outflow of -299 million, with a net outflow ratio of -9.94% and a closing price of 75.950 [2] - GigaDevice Semiconductor (02367) had a net outflow of -179 million, with a net outflow ratio of -31.12% and a closing price of 38.620 [2] - Zhaojin Mining (01818) recorded a net outflow of -162 million, with a net outflow ratio of -19.70% and a closing price of 29.840 [2] Net Inflow Ratio Rankings - GX Hengsheng Technology (02837) achieved a net inflow ratio of 89.26%, with a net inflow of 36.552 million and a closing price of 7.310 [3] - Far East Horizon (03360) had a net inflow ratio of 80.25%, with a net inflow of 27.178 million and a closing price of 7.140 [3] - Tuhu-W (09690) recorded a net inflow ratio of 67.29%, with a net inflow of 19.987 million and a closing price of 18.050 [3] Net Outflow Ratio Rankings - Huadian International Power (01071) had the highest net outflow ratio at -74.23%, with a net outflow of -23.262 million and a closing price of 4.400 [3] - CIMC Enric (03899) recorded a net outflow ratio of -63.04%, with a net outflow of -15.158 million and a closing price of 7.880 [3] - Weilu Group (01196) experienced a net outflow ratio of -57.66%, with a net outflow of -10.037 million and a closing price of 12.090 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The current bull market for gold is expected to continue until the new technological revolution, represented by artificial intelligence, drives real interest rates higher [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices have seen the largest increase since 2018, driven by a restructuring of gold pricing logic, shifting from commodity attributes to financial asset safety attributes due to declining trust in the US dollar [2]. - Global central banks have purchased over 1,000 tons of gold annually from 2022 to 2024, indicating strong demand [2]. - If global central banks increase the proportion of gold in their foreign exchange reserves to 15%, the demand could reach 5,000 tons, significantly impacting gold prices [2]. Group 2: Supply Constraints - Gold exploration investments have declined in recent years, limiting the ability to increase gold supply in the short term [4]. - The average annual compound growth rate for mined gold over the past 15 years is only 1.6%, while recycled gold has a growth rate of 0.6% [4]. - The global mining exploration budget for 2024 is approximately $12.5 billion, with only $5.5 billion allocated for gold exploration, showing no signs of recovery [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - High gold prices are making lower-grade mines profitable, which is expected to increase mining and exploration expenditures in the coming years [5]. - The next three to five years are anticipated to be a high-price window for gold, potentially allowing several leading Chinese gold mining companies to enter the top ten globally [5]. - Companies are advised to focus on quality project development, optimize their asset structures, and explore international capital platforms to promote internationalization [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices have not hindered the profitability of gold companies, which are reporting significant revenue and profit increases in their third-quarter results. Company Performance - Zijin Mining reported a revenue of 254.2 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.33%, and a net profit of 37.86 billion yuan, up 55.45% year-on-year. Gold production reached 65 tons, a 20% increase year-on-year, with Q3 production at 24 tons, up 7% from Q2 [1][5]. - Shandong Gold expects a net profit of 3.8 billion to 4.1 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing an increase of 83.9% to 98.5% year-on-year [5]. - Zhaojin Mining reported approximately 12.43 billion yuan in revenue, a 53.73% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of about 2.12 billion yuan, up 140.43% year-on-year [5]. - Zhaojin Gold achieved revenue of 340 million yuan, a 119.51% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 82.16 million yuan, compared to a loss of 90.08 million yuan in the previous year [5]. - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining announced a revenue of 8.64 billion yuan, a 38.91% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.06 billion yuan, up 86.21% year-on-year [5]. Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs maintains a forecast for gold prices to reach $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, while JPMorgan views gold as a top long-term investment, predicting prices to hit $5,055 per ounce by Q4 2026 and $6,000 by 2028 [5]. Cost Factors - Zijin Mining noted that factors such as declining ore grades, increased transportation distances, and higher stripping ratios at open-pit mines have led to an increase in unit sales costs [7]. - Zhaojin Gold attributed its profitability to product structure adjustments, increased sales prices, and reduced production costs, resulting in a gross profit margin increase of 38.12% year-on-year [7]. Stock Performance - As of October 24, 2023, Zijin Mining's A-shares have risen over 100% year-to-date, Chifeng Jilong Gold's A-shares have increased over 85%, Shandong Gold's A-shares have risen over 60%, and Zhongjin Gold's A-shares have increased over 90% [9].

Group 1 - The recent volatility in the gold market has seen spot gold prices drop below $4060 per ounce, with a daily decline exceeding 1% on the 24th [1] - Prior to this, spot gold experienced a significant correction, with a drop of 6.3% on the 21st, marking the largest daily decline since April 2013 [2] - Analysts from Guojin Securities attribute the rapid correction in gold prices to technical adjustments and changes in the macro environment, while maintaining that the long-term upward trend in gold remains intact due to structural erosion of the dollar's credit system [2] Group 2 - Haitong Securities highlights that the ongoing trend of de-dollarization, geopolitical risks, and the need for diversified investment portfolios are driving central banks and institutional investors to increase their gold allocations, providing solid support for gold prices [2] - The restructuring of the global order positions gold as the most suitable safe-haven asset [2] - The high gold prices have positively impacted the performance of gold-related listed companies, with significant profit increases reported [2] Group 3 - Shandong Gold expects to achieve a net profit of 3.8 billion to 4.1 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 83.9% to 98.5% [4] - Zhaojin Gold reported a net profit of 82.16 million yuan for the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 191.2% [4] - Zijin Mining's net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters reached 37.864 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 55.45% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong gold stocks experienced a decline, with several companies reporting significant drops in their stock prices [1] Company Performance - Lingbao Gold, Zhaojin Mining, and China Gold International all fell by over 4% [1] - Shandong Gold and Tongguan Gold saw declines of more than 3% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong gold stocks continue to decline, with significant drops in major companies, reflecting a broader trend in the precious metals market as gold and silver prices experience a downturn [1] Group 1: Market Performance - China Silver Group saw a sharp decline of 6%, while Zhaojin Mining and Shandong Gold fell nearly 4%, with Shandong Gold's cumulative drop exceeding 20% over the past eight days [1] - Other companies such as China National Gold and Zhu Feng Gold also experienced declines of over 3%, while Tongguan Gold, Zijin Mining, Chifeng Jilong Gold, and Lingbao Gold all dropped more than 2% [1] Group 2: Price Movements - In the Asian market, gold prices continued to adjust, reaching $4,070 per ounce, down 0.77%, while silver prices fell by 1% to $47.96 per ounce [1] - The Sukdun Financial Research team noted that the decline in precious metal prices may reflect profit-taking and a decrease in safe-haven fund flows rather than movements in U.S. Treasury yields [1] Group 3: Market Reactions - Many gold retailers expressed shock at the volatility of gold prices, reporting a decrease in transaction volumes due to the recent price adjustments [1] - The recent drop in gold prices has also cooled the previously active gold recycling market, with some retailers noting a lack of interest in silver products following a significant price drop [1]

Group 1 - Gold stocks experienced a collective rebound in early trading, with notable increases in share prices: Zhaojin Mining rose by 4.91% to HKD 32.02, Zijin Mining increased by 3.33% to HKD 33.56, Shandong Gold rose by 2.35% to HKD 36.56, Lingbao Gold increased by 2.18% to HKD 19.22, and Chifeng Jilong Gold rose by 1.81% to HKD 30.3 [3] - The surge in gold prices was driven by ongoing concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown, leading to increased market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut and central banks globally increasing their gold holdings [3] - As of the close, the December gold futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange reached USD 4,359.4 per ounce, marking a 3.47% increase [3] Group 2 - HSBC's recent commodity outlook report indicates that the upward momentum for gold is expected to continue until 2026, supported by strong gold purchases from central banks, ongoing fiscal concerns in the U.S., and expectations for further monetary easing [3] - The target price for gold set by HSBC is USD 5,000 per ounce, reflecting the anticipated sustained demand and market conditions [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report maintains a "buy" rating for Zhaojin Mining (01818) with a target price of HKD 43.72, driven by the clear timeline for the commencement of the Haiyu gold mine and the gradual release of production capacity, which is expected to lead to upward revisions in profit forecasts and valuation [1] - The company reported strong year-on-year growth in Q3, with revenue reaching RMB 12.43 billion, a significant increase of 53.73%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately RMB 2.12 billion, up 140.43% [1] - In Q3 alone, the company achieved revenue of approximately RMB 5.08 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 59.03% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 25.73%, with net profit of about RMB 678 million, a year-on-year increase of 106.69% [1] Group 2 - The ongoing bull market in gold provides strong support, with the average gold price in Q3 reaching USD 3,459 per ounce, a year-on-year increase of 39.88%, significantly boosting the company's revenue [2] - The Haiyu gold mine, the largest single gold mine discovered in China, has proven reserves exceeding 560 tons and an average grade of 4.20 grams per ton, positioning it as a world-class asset with substantial future value [2] - The Haiyu gold mine's production system has successfully completed initial testing, with full production expected to ramp up between 2026 and 2027, potentially yielding at least 15 tons of gold annually, which will enhance the company's competitive edge due to low production costs [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zhaojin Mining (01818) with a target price of HKD 43.72, anticipating upward revisions in profit forecasts due to the clear production timeline and gradual capacity release of the offshore gold mine [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of RMB 12.43 billion, a significant year-on-year increase of 53.73% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company reached approximately RMB 2.12 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 140.43% [2] - For the third quarter alone, the company reported operating revenue of approximately RMB 5.08 billion, a year-on-year increase of 59.03% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 25.73% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the third quarter was about RMB 678 million, showing a year-on-year growth of 106.69% [2] Group 2: Market Conditions - The international gold price remained strong in the third quarter of 2025, with an average price of USD 3,459 per ounce, marking a year-on-year increase of 39.88% [2] - The rising gold prices significantly boosted the company's revenue, which is the primary reason for the substantial year-on-year growth in performance [2] - The company is expected to benefit from a "Davis Double Play" effect, where production growth coincides with price increases, enhancing both performance and market value [2] Group 3: Asset Value Realization - The offshore gold mine is the largest single gold mine discovered in China, with proven gold reserves exceeding 560 tons and an average grade of 4.20 grams per ton, making it a rare large-scale gold mine [3] - The ore dressing system of the offshore gold mine successfully completed a water trial run in the first half of the year, indicating initial industrial production capability, with full production expected to be achieved gradually from 2026 to 2027 [3] - Once fully operational, the offshore gold mine is anticipated to produce at least 15 tons of gold, with low comprehensive costs per kilogram due to its scale and high-grade characteristics, positioning it as a core engine for the company's future leap in development [3]