Group 1 - The coal industry is experiencing a decline, with several companies showing significant stock price drops, including China Coal Energy (01898.HK) down 4.04%, Yanzhou Coal Mining (01171.HK) down 3.37%, Mongolian Coal (00975.HK) down 3.16%, and South Gobi Resources (01878.HK) down 3.03% [1]

2023年5月， 徐新福 任国家能源集团副总经理，至此番履新。 据介绍，国家能源投资集团有限责任公司（简称国家能源集团）于 2017 年 11 月 28 日正 式挂牌，是经党中央、国务院批准，由中国国电集团公司和神华集团有限责任公司 联合 重组 成立 的中央骨干能源企业，是国有资本投资公司改革、创建世界一流示范企业 、国有企业公 司治理示范 的试点企业 ， 202 4 年世界 500 强排名第 84 位。 据国家能源集团官网消息， 2025年7月28日下午，国家能源投资集团有限责任公司召开会 议，宣布了中央组织部关于国家能源投资集团有限责任公司董事、党组副书记调整的决定： 徐新福同志任国家能源投资集团有限责任公司董事、党组副书记，不再担任副总经理职务。 上述任职按有关法律和章程办理。 公开信息显示，徐新福， 历任大庆石油管理局第二机械厂厂长、党委书记、党委组织部部长， 中国石油集团公司人事服务中心副主任、主任、人事部副主任，中国石油物资采购中心主 任、党委副书记，中国石油物资公司执行董事、总经理，中国石油集团公司物资装备部总经 理、办公室（党组办公室、董事会办公室）主任、董事会秘书等职。 来源： 国家能源集团 ...

从中证沪港深互联互通中小综合能源指数持仓样本的行业来看，煤炭占比37.69%、焦炭占比19.45%、 油气开采占比12.76%、燃油炼制占比12.13%、油田服务占比8.87%、油气流通及其他占比5.85%、天然 气加工占比3.25%。 资料显示，该指数系列样本每半年调整一次，样本调整实施时间分别为每年6月和12月的第二个星期五 的下一交易日。权重因子随样本定期调整而调整，调整时间与指数样本定期调整实施时间相同。在下一 个定期调整日前，权重因子一般固定不变。特殊情况下将对该指数系列样本进行临时调整。当样本退市 时，将其从指数样本中剔除。样本公司发生收购、合并、分拆等情形的处理，参照计算与维护细则处 理。当中证沪港深500指数、中证沪港深互联互通中小综合指数和中证沪港深互联互通综合指数样本发 生变动时，将进行相应调整。 据了解，中证沪港深行业指数系列将中证沪港深 500、中证沪港深互联互通中小综合以及中证沪港深互 联互通综合指数样本按行业分类标准分别分为 11 个行业，再以各行业全部证券作为样本编制指数，以 反映中证沪港深指数系列中不同行业公司证券的整体表现。该指数以2004年12月31日为基日，以1000.0 ...

Group 1 - Hong Kong coal stocks collectively declined, with Mongolian Coking Coal (00975.HK) dropping nearly 6% [1] - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (01171.HK) fell over 3% [1] - Other companies such as China Shenhua Energy (01088.HK) and China Coal Energy (01898.HK) also experienced declines [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the potential for coal prices to rebound due to the "anti-involution" policy, which is expected to lead to actual production cuts and improve coal prices. The analysis is based on the mean reversion of return on equity (ROE) and the reasonable profit distribution levels of thermal coal and coking coal within their respective industrial chains [2][6][8] Summary by Sections Introduction - The "anti-involution" policy has catalyzed significant increases in coal commodities and equity prices. The report highlights the importance of understanding the future space for coal under this policy, particularly following the State Energy Administration's notice regarding coal mine production inspections [6][18] ROE Perspective - The report calculates the expected central price levels for thermal coal and coking coal based on historical average ROE. The central price for thermal coal is estimated at 749 CNY/ton, which is 96 CNY/ton higher than the price of 653 CNY/ton on July 25, 2025 (+14.7%). For coking coal, the central price is estimated at 1838 CNY/ton, which is 158 CNY/ton higher than the July 25 price of 1680 CNY/ton (+9.4%) [6][34][35] Industry Chain Perspective - The report assesses the reasonable price levels for thermal coal and coking coal based on profit distribution in the coal-electricity and coal-steel industrial chains. It estimates that the reasonable price for thermal coal could be between 776 CNY/ton and 835 CNY/ton, reflecting potential increases of 18.9% and 27.9% respectively from current prices. For coking coal, the reasonable price could range from 1707 CNY/ton to 2094 CNY/ton, with corresponding increases of 1.6% to 24.7% [7][44][45] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that there is still room for price-to-book (PB) mean reversion, indicating a favorable investment ratio for coal stocks. It recommends focusing on short-term rebounds and long-term reversal opportunities in the coal sector. Specific stock recommendations include: 1. Elastic stocks: Lu'an Environmental Energy, Pingmei Shenma, Huaibei Mining, Shanxi Coking Coal, Yanzhou Coal, Jinkong Coal, and Shanmei International 2. Long-term stable profit leaders: China Coal Energy (A+H), China Shenhua (A+H), and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical 3. Transition growth stocks: Electric Power Investment Energy and New Energy [8][50][52]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, supported by both fundamental and policy factors, making it an opportune time to invest in the coal sector [11][12] - The report highlights a tightening supply side due to government policies aimed at curbing overproduction, which is expected to support a rebound in coal prices [3][11] - The underlying investment logic of coal capacity shortages remains unchanged, with a balanced short-term supply-demand situation and a medium to long-term gap still anticipated [11][12] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of July 26, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 645 CNY/ton, an increase of 11 CNY/ton week-on-week [30] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port is reported at 1650 CNY/ton, up 230 CNY/ton week-on-week [32] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 94%, down 0.6 percentage points week-on-week, while the utilization rate for coking coal mines is 86.9%, up 0.8 percentage points [11][42] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces has decreased by 51,000 tons/day (-13.04%) and in coastal provinces by 19,600 tons/day (-8.1%) [11][42] Inventory Situation - Coal inventory in coastal provinces increased by 429,000 tons week-on-week, while inland provinces saw a slight increase of 85,000 tons [11] Company Performance - The coal sector has shown strong performance, with the coal mining sector rising by 8.00% this week, outperforming the broader market [15][17] - Key companies to focus on include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy, which are noted for their stable operations and solid performance [12][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [10] Core Insights - The recent notice from the National Energy Administration regarding coal mine production checks is interpreted as a significant policy move to curb overproduction, potentially leading to a marginal reduction in coal supply of 140 million tons in the second half of the year, which represents 3% of the projected national coal output for 2024 [2][7] - The coal index (Yangtze) increased by 7.93% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 6.24 percentage points, indicating strong market performance [6][20] - The price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port reached 653 RMB/ton, an increase of 11 RMB/ton week-on-week, while coking coal prices at Jingtang port rose to 1680 RMB/ton, up 240 RMB/ton week-on-week [6][20] Summary by Sections Policy and Production Impact - The policy aims to stabilize coal prices above long-term contract prices by enforcing stricter production limits, with annual coal output not exceeding announced capacity and monthly output limited to 110% of announced capacity [8] - The production check will cover eight provinces, including Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang, with significant overproduction noted in Xinjiang and some months exceeding 100% capacity utilization in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia [8][14] Market Performance - The coal sector's strong performance is attributed to favorable fundamentals and expectations of reduced supply due to the production checks, leading to a positive outlook for coal prices in the short term [6][20] - The report highlights that the demand for thermal coal is expected to rise due to high temperatures increasing electricity consumption, further supporting price increases [20] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their potential for growth and stability, including: - Elastic stocks: Lu'an Energy, Pingmei Shenma, Huabei Mining, Shanxi Coking Coal, Yanzhou Coal, and Shanxi Coal International - Long-term stable profit leaders: China Coal Energy (A+H), China Shenhua (A+H), and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical - Transitioning growth companies: Electric Power Investment Energy and New Energy [9]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - Coal prices have rebounded significantly, with the central price level continuing to rise. Domestic power plants have increased daily coal consumption, leading to further price increases for both coking coal and thermal coal. The report emphasizes that the industry is supported by both policy and fundamental factors, maintaining a "Positive" rating for the coal sector [6][41]. Summary by Sections Coal Market Performance - The coal sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a weekly increase of 8% compared to a 1.69% rise in the index, resulting in a 6.31 percentage point outperformance. A total of 37 stocks in the sector saw price increases, with Lu'an Huanneng showing the highest weekly gain of 31.22% [2]. Key Data on Coal Sales and Inventory - The average daily coal sales for monitored enterprises from July 18 to July 24, 2025, were 7.14 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.4% but a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. The total coal inventory (including port storage) was 30.55 million tons, down 2.3% week-on-week but up 20.5% year-on-year [2][8]. Thermal Coal Industry Chain - As of July 25, 2025, the price index for thermal coal (Q5500K) in the Bohai Rim was 664 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.15%. The inventory at Qinhuangdao port was 5.85 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 70,000 tons [3]. Coking Coal Industry Chain - The main coking coal price at Jingtang Port was 1,650 CNY/ton, up 16.2% week-on-week. The inventory at Jingtang Port decreased by 11.16% week-on-week, while the total inventory at independent coking plants increased by 56.27% [4]. Coal Chemical Industry Chain - The price of Yanquan anthracite coal remained stable at 820 CNY/ton. The methanol market price in East China rose to 2,476.14 CNY/ton, an increase of 100.91 CNY/ton week-on-week [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend thermal coal companies and coking coal companies undergoing turnaround. Key companies to watch include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Huainan Mining for thermal coal, and Huai Bei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal for coking coal [6][41].

Group 1 - The "anti-involution" policy is becoming a new focus in the market, with expectations for a three-stage development: policy anticipation, price increases, and demand expansion [2] - The photovoltaic industry is expected to see a supply-demand turning point due to capacity clearance, particularly in the polysilicon and photovoltaic glass segments, with companies like Tongwei Co., Ltd., LONGi Green Energy, Daqo New Energy, and GCL-Poly Energy being highlighted [3] - High-dividend coal companies and turnaround coking companies such as China Coal Energy and Yanzhou Coal Mining Company are noted for their potential [4] Group 2 - The stabilization and recovery of bulk commodity prices driven by the "anti-involution" trend will benefit the profitability of bulk supply chain companies like Xiamen Xiangyu, Xiamen International Trade, and Zheshang Zhongtuo [5]

流动性方面，截止7月23日，港股央企红利50ETF（520990）近20个交易日累计成交金额29.62亿元，日 均成交金额1.48亿元；今年以来，134个交易日，累计成交金额155.35亿元，日均成交金额1.16亿元。 港股央企红利50ETF（520990）现任基金经理为龚丽丽、汪洋。龚丽丽自2024年7月25日管理（或拟管 理）该基金，任职期内收益17.15%；汪洋自2025年7月15日管理（或拟管理）该基金，任职期内收益 3.73%。 最新定期报告显示，港股央企红利50ETF（520990）重仓股包括中国移动、中国石油股份、中远海控、 中国海洋石油、中国神华、中国石油化工股份、中国电信、中国联通、招商银行、中煤能源，持仓占比 如下。 股票代码股票名称持仓占比持仓股数（股）持仓市值（元）00941中国移动10.83%621.75万4.94亿00857 中国石油股份10.55%7814.80万4.81亿01919中远海控9.66%3540.75万4.40亿00883中国海洋石油 9.03%2547.10万4.12亿01088中国神华8.09%1328.00万3.69亿00386中国石油化工股份7.66%931 ...