政策层面，《求是》杂志今年2月初刊文称，要积极推动物价合理回升，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，着力提升宏观经济治理效能，切实推动物价水平逐 步回升到合理区间。国盛证券认为，化债政策加码下，政府财政压力有望减轻，企业资产负债表也存在修复的空间，市政工程类项目有望加快推进，市政管 网及减隔震实物工作量有望加快落地。关注中国联塑等。 行业层面，地产预期改善叠加上游原材料涨价，中泰证券看好有定价权的企业盈利能力修复，迎来景气度和估值共振向上拐点。该行认为，地产有望企稳回 升带动建材需求回暖；而沥青、聚丙烯、聚乙烯等上游原材料价格持续上涨，驱动建材涨价传导成本压力。看好需求有望率先企稳、集中度高、价格更容易 向下传导的细分行业中的头部企业。建议关注中国联塑等。 公司层面，国金证券认为PVC管道主要用于建筑排水、电线护套等，产品单价低、同质化严重，区别在成本优势。增大生产规模可以实现规模经济、降低原 材料和生产成本，PVC龙头例如中国联塑目前已在全国20个省份及海外国家建立超30个生产基地。此外，塑料管道格局较为分散，各家企业商业模式及产品 亦有区别。截至2024年底，从产量口径看，塑料管CR20约40%，头部企业主要有中 ...

花旗此前表示，该行在中国联塑业绩缄默期前与公司CFO及副CFO接洽，其内地核心业务呈现企稳迹 象，住宅业务的拖累减少，并被非住宅业务如农业、工业、医疗及市政等业务强劲增长所抵销。该行以 预测今年市盈率9倍为估值基础，目标价相应由6.5港元上调至7港元，评级"买入"。 中金发布研报称，消费建材行业价格有望温和修复，部分板块龙头毛利率或边际改善。近期龙头企业相 继发布涨价函，如防水、石膏板、市政管道等细分领域。判断提价基础包括供给优化；上游原材料多为 化工品，年初以来价格中枢上移，包括PVC、乳液等。该行看好行业复价趋势下，龙头企业盈利边际修 复。该行建议关注中国联塑等。 中国联塑(02128)盘中涨近7%，年内累计涨幅已超50%。截至发稿，涨3.91%，报6.91港元，成交额1.13 亿港元。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中国联塑(02128)盘中涨近7%，年内累计涨幅已超50%。截至发稿，涨3.91%，报 6.91港元，成交额1.13亿港元。 花旗此前表示，该行在中国联塑业绩缄默期前与公司CFO及副CFO接洽，其内地核心业务呈现企稳迹 象，住宅业务的拖累减少，并被非住宅业务如农业、工业、医疗及市政等业务强劲增长所抵销。该行以 预测今年市盈率9倍为估值基础，目标价相应由6.5港元上调至7港元，评级"买入"。 中金发布研报称，消费建材行业价格有望温和修复，部分板块龙头毛利率或边际改善。近期龙头企业相 继发布涨价函，如防水、石膏板、市政管道等细分领域。判断提价基础包括供给优化；上游原材料多为 化工品，年初以来价格中枢上移，包括PVC、乳液等。该行看好行业复价趋势下，龙头企业盈利边际修 复。该行建议关注中国联塑等。 ...

【天风建筑建材 & 新材料】周观点 20260223 节前1-2周涨幅较好的主线为：①AI 算力相关电子材料主线，以特种电子布为核心的玻纤领涨建材板块；PCB 基材、半导体封装材料、液冷相关标的领涨新材料板块；②AI + 建筑主线，VR/AR 应用、算力 + 工程咨询设计相 关标的领涨建筑板块；③外围市场 PCB 核心基材、半导体设备/材料主线领涨。 下周重点关注： 1、科技主线持续回归，核心推荐【电子布】赛道：①供需格局持续失衡，行业整体供需缺口约 20%，26 年 1 月 起全品类电子布均出现供应紧张，企业在手订单已达 2 个月水平，预计26 年全年将维持供应偏紧格局；②产能供 给刚性收缩，普通电子布产能向高端转移带来60% 产能损失，全品类供给持续收缩；③涨价节奏加快、弹性充 足，25 年电子布行业普遍提价 4-5 次，26 年 已提价10%，高端 DK 布、Q 布、CTE布价格仍处上行通道；④扩产 瓶颈短期无法突破，高端产品生产依赖的丰田高端织布机交付周期长达 1-2 年，但需关注池窑法突破（单个池窑 年产3000吨VS坩埚36吨）带来的供应增加（29年有可能供过于求）；⑤库存与需求端共振，CCL及电 ...

Group 1 - China Lesso (2128.HK) saw its stock price rise by 6.16% to HKD 6.55, reaching a nearly three-year high since March 28, 2023, with a year-to-date increase of over 41%, significantly outperforming the Hang Seng Index, which rose over 5% in the same period [1] - The stock price has increased by 108% compared to the same period last year, when it closed at HKD 3.15 on February 7, 2022 [1] - CICC's report indicates a potential mild recovery in the consumer building materials sector, with leading companies in certain segments expected to see marginal improvements in profit margins due to price increases in waterproofing, gypsum boards, and municipal pipelines [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities noted that positive real estate policies are likely to accelerate the stabilization of the real estate market, with current data reflecting in the stock prices and valuations of building materials companies [1] - Companies are improving their domestic market share, expanding overseas, and diversifying product categories, with some beginning to show signs of revenue improvement [1] - Citigroup reported that the core business of China Lesso is stabilizing, with reduced drag from residential business offset by strong growth in non-residential sectors such as agriculture, industry, healthcare, and municipal services [2] Group 3 - Citigroup raised its target price for China Lesso from HKD 6.5 to HKD 7, based on a forecasted price-to-earnings ratio of 9 times for this year, which is 0.5 standard deviations above the historical average, maintaining a "Buy" rating [2]

Group 1 - China Liansu (2128.HK) saw its stock price rise by 6.16% to HKD 6.55, reaching a nearly three-year high since March 28, 2023, with a year-to-date increase of over 41%, significantly outperforming the Hang Seng Index, which rose over 5% during the same period [1] - The stock price has increased by 108% compared to the closing price of HKD 3.15 on February 7, 2022 [1] - CICC's report indicates a potential mild recovery in the consumer building materials sector, with leading companies in certain segments expected to see marginal improvements in profit margins due to price increases in waterproofing, gypsum boards, and municipal pipelines [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities noted that positive real estate policies are likely to accelerate the stabilization of the real estate market, with current data reflecting in the stock prices and valuations of building materials companies [1] - Companies are improving revenue through increased domestic market share, overseas business expansion, and product category diversification, with some showing signs of revenue improvement [1] - Citigroup reported that China Liansu's core business in mainland China is stabilizing, with reduced drag from residential business offset by strong growth in non-residential sectors such as agriculture, industrial, medical, and municipal [2]

Core Insights - The Chinese duct industry is transitioning from traditional construction accessories to high-tech, high-value key system components, characterized by expanding market size, highly differentiated competition, and technology-driven transformation [1][8] Industry Overview - Ducts, short for "ventilation ducts," are closed channel systems used in buildings or industrial systems to transport, distribute, and control air (or gas) flow [2] - The primary functions of ducts include achieving directed airflow for ventilation, temperature regulation, smoke and dust removal, material transport, or maintaining specific cleanliness standards [2] Market Size - The market size of the Chinese duct industry is projected to reach approximately 3.342 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.44% [1][8] - The demand for efficient ventilation systems is driven by policies promoting building energy retrofitting and carbon neutrality goals, with a surge in demand for ducts meeting specific cleanliness, corrosion resistance, and high airtightness requirements in high-end manufacturing sectors such as data centers and biomedicine [1][8] Industry Chain - The upstream of the duct industry includes raw materials such as galvanized steel plates, stainless steel plates, aluminum plates, and various insulation materials [4] - The midstream involves the production and manufacturing of ducts, while the downstream applications span commercial and public buildings, industrial facilities, data centers, cleanrooms, and residential buildings [4] Key Enterprises - The competitive landscape of the duct industry is characterized by a "large industry, small enterprises" model, with significant differentiation along technological and application lines [9] - China Liansu Group is a major player in the duct market, leveraging its large-scale production and nationwide sales network to extend its product lines into various duct materials [9] - Duken New Materials is recognized as a national-level specialized and innovative "little giant," focusing on flexible composite ducts and innovative solutions [10] Trends and Innovations - The future of ducts will evolve from "standardized transport carriers" to "multi-functional integrated components," driven by breakthroughs in material technology [11] - The industry will increasingly adopt environmentally friendly, high-performance composite materials and functional surface treatments to meet stringent hygiene standards in healthcare and laboratory settings [11] - Digital transformation will fundamentally change duct production and operation, with automation and digital twin technologies enhancing efficiency and monitoring capabilities [12] - The demand for highly specialized and customized duct solutions will rise, necessitating duct manufacturers to transition into deep scene solution providers [13]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the price of ordinary electronic cloth has exceeded expectations, with significant price increases observed in recent months, suggesting a sustained high demand in the market [12][13] - Shanghai's initiative to purchase second-hand homes for rental purposes is expected to boost the supply of rental housing and stimulate the construction materials market [13][14] - The construction materials industry is currently at a historical valuation low, with potential for recovery as demand stabilizes and supply-side improvements take effect [23][25] Group 1: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - The price of ordinary electronic cloth has seen cumulative increases of 1-1.2 RMB/m due to supply-demand imbalances and rising copper prices, indicating a long-term bullish trend [12] - The Shanghai government has launched a program to acquire second-hand homes for rental purposes, focusing on small-sized units, which is anticipated to enhance the supply of rental properties and invigorate the construction materials sector [13] - Recent data shows a recovery in second-hand home transactions, with significant year-on-year increases, suggesting a potential rebound in the real estate market [14][15] Group 2: Industry Fundamentals and Company Performance - The construction materials sector is experiencing a bottoming out phase, with various sub-sectors like cement and fiberglass showing signs of recovery, supported by supply-side adjustments and improved market conditions [23][25] - The report highlights that leading companies in the consumer building materials segment are demonstrating resilience, with improved revenue growth rates compared to the overall market, indicating strong operational capabilities [29] - Cement prices have recently decreased by 1%, but the overall market is expected to stabilize as companies implement price control measures and benefit from lower coal costs [25][26] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the consumer building materials sector, such as Three Trees, Rabbit Baby, and Oriental Yuhong, which are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing market recovery [23][25] - In the cement industry, companies like Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement are highlighted as potential investment opportunities due to their strong market positions and historical performance [25][26] - The fiberglass sector is also noted for its growth potential, with leading firms like China Jushi and Zhongtai Technology expected to capitalize on increasing demand for high-end electronic cloth [26][28]

Core Viewpoint - China Lesso (02128) has seen its stock price increase by over 30% year-to-date, with a recent rise of 6.15% to HKD 6.21, driven by positive market sentiment and a favorable report from Citigroup [1] Financial Performance - Citigroup has revised its earnings forecast for China Lesso for 2026 to 2028, reducing estimates by 11% to 18% due to impairment in non-core projects [1] - The company's core business in mainland China shows signs of stabilization, with reduced drag from residential business offset by strong growth in non-residential sectors such as agriculture, industry, healthcare, and municipal services [1] Valuation and Target Price - Citigroup has set a target price of HKD 7, up from HKD 6.5, based on a forecasted price-to-earnings ratio of 9 times for this year, which is 0.5 standard deviations above the historical average [1] Growth Drivers - The overseas pipeline business of China Lesso is expected to be a major growth driver, with sales growth projected to exceed 50% this year [1] - The company is anticipated to report a core net profit of RMB 938 million for the second half of last year, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 10% and a half-year decline of 13% [1] Profit Margins - The net profit margin for the second half of last year is expected to slightly decrease to 7.4% from 8.7% in the first half [1] Market Sentiment - The stock has recently appreciated by approximately 20% amid positive sentiment, and any potential pullback is viewed as a buying opportunity [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Liansu (02128) has seen its stock price increase over 30% year-to-date, with a recent rise of 6.15% to HKD 6.21, and a trading volume of HKD 97.15 million [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Citigroup's recent report indicates a downward revision of China Liansu's earnings forecast for 2026 to 2028 by 11% to 18%, reflecting impairments in non-core projects [1] - The company's core business in mainland China shows signs of stabilization, with reduced drag from residential operations, offset by strong growth in non-residential sectors such as agriculture, industry, healthcare, and municipal services [1] - Citigroup projects a 10% year-on-year decline in core net profit for the second half of last year to RMB 938 million, with a 13% decline compared to the first half, and a slight decrease in net profit margin from 8.7% to 7.4% [1] Group 2: Valuation and Investment Outlook - Citigroup has set a target price for China Liansu at HKD 7, up from HKD 6.5, based on a forecasted price-to-earnings ratio of 9 times, which is 0.5 standard deviations above the historical average [1] - The overseas pipeline business of China Liansu is expected to be a major growth driver, with sales growth anticipated to exceed 50% this year [1] - The stock has recently appreciated approximately 20% amid positive sentiment, and any potential pullbacks are viewed as buying opportunities [1]