Core Viewpoint - The lifting of the cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is expected to significantly impact global cobalt supply and prices, with the country being the largest producer globally, accounting for 75.86% of the world's production in 2024 [1] Group 1: Cobalt Market Impact - The DRC will lift its cobalt export ban on October 16, implementing an annual export quota management system, with a cap of 18,125 tons for the remainder of 2025 [1] - The export quota policy is projected to lead to a global cobalt supply shortage from 2025 to 2027, with shortfalls of 122,000 tons, 88,000 tons, and 97,000 tons respectively [1] - Analysts anticipate that cobalt prices are likely to rise significantly due to the expected supply constraints [1] Group 2: Nickel Market Dynamics - Indonesia's newly released RKAB regulations for 2026 are expected to boost nickel ore demand, supporting nickel prices [1] - Minsheng Securities noted that nickel prices are currently at a cyclical low, with clear cost support [1] Group 3: Company Growth Potential - The company has wet nickel production capacity located in Indonesia, which is not affected by the DRC's export restrictions, allowing it to fully benefit from rising cobalt prices [1] - The combination of new capacity release and cost advantages indicates significant growth potential for the company [1]

Group 1: Cobalt Export Quota in Congo - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has announced a cobalt export quota, effective from October 16, aimed at strengthening resource sovereignty and signaling a shift from a surplus to a shortage in the cobalt market, leading to a systematic increase in price levels [1] - The DRC's Strategic Mineral Market Regulatory Authority stated that miners will be allowed to export slightly over 18,000 tons of cobalt for the remainder of this year, with annual export limits of 96,600 tons for 2026 and 2027, which is less than half of last year's production [1] - The quota distribution includes major companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum, which received a quota of 31,200 tons (32.3%), exceeding some prior expectations [1] Group 2: Future Cobalt Supply and Demand - Institutions predict a cobalt supply gap in the next two years, with global supply expected to be 290,000 tons in 2024 (DRC 220,000 tons + Indonesia 28,000 tons) against a demand of 185,000 tons, resulting in a surplus of 105,000 tons; by 2026, supply is projected to drop to 180,000 tons (DRC 96,600 tons + Indonesia 40,000 tons) while demand will rise to 200,000 tons, leading to a shortfall of 20,000 tons [2] Group 3: Market Trends and Stock Performance - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 6.1%, with major U.S. stock indices also experiencing significant declines, indicating a bearish trend in the market [3] - Notable declines were observed in large tech stocks, with companies like Broadcom and Tesla dropping nearly 6% and 5.06% respectively, reflecting broader market challenges [3] Group 4: Rare Earth Prices - Baotou Steel and Northern Rare Earth announced an increase in rare earth concentrate prices for Q4 2025, with a projected 37.13% increase compared to Q3 [7] Group 5: Company Announcements - China Energy Construction signed three new energy EPC contracts worth approximately 27.45 billion USD (about 195.54 billion RMB) with Saudi companies [11] - Smoore International reported a record high quarterly revenue of approximately 4.1968 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of about 27.2% [12] - Kelun-Biotech's TROP2ADC drug received approval for a new indication, expanding its market potential in treating specific lung cancer cases [13] - Zhaojin Mining reported a net profit of approximately 2.117 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 140.43% [14]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) government has issued conditions for obtaining and distributing cobalt export quotas, effective from October 16, 2025 [1][2] - The DRC is expected to contribute 76% of global cobalt production in 2024, with a projected reduction in export supply over the next two years [10][11] - The report highlights potential supply shortages in the cobalt market due to various companies facing operational challenges [8][10] Summary by Sections Export Quota Details - The basic export quotas for cobalt in 2025 are set at 3,625 tons for October, and 7,250 tons for both November and December [2] - Quotas are allocated based on historical export volumes from January 1, 2022, to December 31, 2024, with specific exclusions for certain companies [2][3] Company-Specific Quotas - Key companies and their basic export quotas for Q4 2025 include: - Luoyang Molybdenum: 6,650 tons - Glencore: 3,925 tons - Eurasian Resources: 2,125 tons - Gecamines: 1,475 tons [6][16] - The 2026 quotas for these companies are projected to be significantly higher, indicating a potential increase in production capacity [7] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report anticipates a supply gap of approximately 25,500 tons in 2027, driven by increasing global demand for cobalt, particularly in electric vehicles [12][13] - The DRC's export supply is expected to decrease significantly, with a projected reduction of 12,340 tons over the next two years [11][12] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as: - Luoyang Molybdenum, which will hold a significant share of the DRC's export quotas - Huayou Cobalt, with substantial production capacity in Indonesia - Other companies like Likin Resources and Greeenmei, which are expanding their nickel and cobalt production capabilities [15]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the dynamics of precious metals (gold, silver) and industrial metals (copper, cobalt) in the context of recent market changes and geopolitical factors [1][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Monetary Policy Impact**: The new Japanese Prime Minister's loose monetary policy contrasts with market expectations, alleviating the strength of the dollar and stimulating precious metal trading. This has led to increased expectations of currency devaluation globally, positively impacting commodity prices [1][4]. - **Copper Price Drivers**: Changes in the Central African copper mining assets and the Lobiito Corridor plan enhance companies like Glencore's pricing power. The reduction in output from Grasberg exacerbates supply tightness, driving copper prices upward [1][5]. - **Future Demand for Copper**: By 2030, investments in the power grid in China and the U.S. are expected to significantly boost industrial metal demand. Even without considering monetary easing, the trends of supply tightening and demand expansion indicate a bullish outlook for copper prices [1][6]. - **Valuation of Domestic Mining Companies**: Domestic mining companies are maturing in their valuation systems and are currently undervalued compared to international peers. They exhibit leading advantages in capital expenditure, resource capture, and cost reduction, positioning them favorably for future growth [1][7][8]. - **Precious Metals Performance**: From October 1 to 8, 2023, London spot gold and silver prices rose by 4.62% and 4.84%, respectively, driven by factors such as the U.S. government shutdown and Japan's monetary policy [1][9]. Additional Important Insights - **Cobalt Market Dynamics**: The cobalt price in China has surged to over 340,000 yuan per ton due to quota policies from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which are insufficient to meet global supply and demand, leading to a bullish sentiment in the market [2][14]. - **Impact of U.S. Tech Stocks on Gold**: Poor performance of U.S. tech stocks may increase the allocation of gold in personal asset portfolios. Notably, Oracle's cloud business gross margin fell short of expectations, raising concerns about the sustainability of AI profitability [10]. - **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: Continuous gold purchases by central banks, particularly by China, support gold prices. As of September, China's reserves reached 2,303.5 tons, although monthly purchases have shown a slight decline [15]. - **Stock Recommendations**: The call recommends several stocks in the precious metals and cobalt sectors, including Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and Luoyang Molybdenum, which are expected to benefit from current market conditions [16]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the interplay between monetary policy, market dynamics, and investment opportunities in the precious and industrial metals sectors.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant stock price increase of Liqin Resources (02245), which has risen over 6% recently and nearly 90% over the past ten trading days [1] - As of the report, the stock is trading at 28.64 HKD with a transaction volume of 203 million HKD [1] - The Democratic Republic of Congo has announced an extension of the cobalt export ban until October 15, with plans to lift the ban on October 16 and implement annual export quotas [1] Group 2 - Tianfeng Securities believes that the price center of cobalt is expected to rise in the medium to long term, and long-term assets in the equity sector may face revaluation [1] - Minsheng Securities points out that the company's wet nickel production capacity in Indonesia is substantial, with cost advantages that are likely to benefit significantly from rising cobalt prices [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant stock price increase of Liqian Resources (02245), which has risen over 6% recently and nearly 90% over the past ten trading days [1] - As of the report, the stock price is at 28.64 HKD with a trading volume of 203 million HKD [1] - The Democratic Republic of Congo has announced an extension of the cobalt export ban until October 15, with plans to lift it on October 16 and implement annual export quotas [1] Group 2 - Tianfeng Securities believes that the price center of cobalt is expected to rise in the medium to long term, and long-duration assets in the equity sector may face revaluation [1] - Minsheng Securities points out that the company's wet nickel production capacity in Indonesia is large and cost-effective, positioning it to benefit significantly from rising cobalt prices [1]

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年9月30日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 備註： 第 1 頁 共 11 頁 v 1.1.1 FF301 公司名稱: 寧波力勤資源科技股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年10月6日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02245 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 550,694,291 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 550,694,291 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | RMB | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 550,694,291 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 550,694,291 ...

Group 1 - The cobalt market in China experienced a significant surge on September 29, with the average price of 1 cobalt reported at 337,000 yuan per ton, an increase of 29,000 yuan from the previous trading day, marking the largest single-day increase of the year [2] - Huachuang Securities suggests that the Congolese government's ban and quota policy are exacerbating the tight supply of cobalt raw materials, leading to a strong upward trend in cobalt prices [2] - Minsheng Securities indicates that the domestic raw material shortage is intensifying, and the Congolese government's firm pricing stance suggests a high probability of implementing a quota system, which could lead to a supply contraction and a clear upward shift in cobalt price levels [2] Group 2 - The company’s wet nickel production capacity is located in Indonesia, which is not affected by the Congolese export restrictions, allowing it to fully benefit from the rising cobalt prices [2] - The company is expected to see significant growth due to the release of new production capacity and cost advantages [2] - The stock of the company, Likin Resources, rose over 5%, reaching a new high of 26.46 HKD, with a trading volume of 95.9946 million HKD [3]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Liqin Resources (02245) has surged over 5%, reaching a new high of 26.46 HKD, driven by a significant increase in cobalt prices due to supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) [1] Industry Summary - On September 29, the domestic cobalt market experienced a dramatic surge, with the average price of 1 cobalt reported at 337,000 RMB/ton, marking a substantial increase of 29,000 RMB from the previous trading day, the largest single-day rise this year [1] - Huachuang Securities suggests that the DRC government's ban and quota policies are exacerbating the tight supply of cobalt, leading to a strong upward trend in cobalt prices [1] - The DRC is expected to implement a quota of 18,000 tons starting in 2025, and considering transportation time, there will be a supply gap within the year, compounded by seasonal demand and smelter restocking, which will further tighten raw material availability and increase cobalt prices [1] - Minsheng Securities' recent report indicates that the domestic raw material shortage is intensifying, and the DRC government's firm stance on price support suggests that a quota system is likely to be implemented, leading to a probable contraction in supply and a clear upward shift in cobalt price levels [1] Company Summary - The company’s wet nickel production capacity is located in Indonesia, which is not affected by the DRC's export restrictions, allowing it to fully benefit from the rising cobalt prices [1] - The combination of new production capacity and cost advantages significantly enhances the company's growth potential [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Liqin Resources (02245) has surged over 13%, reaching a historical high of 25.6 HKD, with an 80% increase in the past month, driven by changes in cobalt export policies in the Democratic Republic of Congo [2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Liqin Resources' stock price increased by 13.45%, trading at 25.48 HKD with a transaction volume of 201 million HKD [2]. - The company's wet-process nickel production capacity is located in Indonesia, which is not affected by the cobalt export restrictions from the Democratic Republic of Congo, allowing it to fully benefit from rising cobalt prices [2]. Group 2: Industry Context - The government of the Democratic Republic of Congo updated its cobalt export policy on September 20, extending the cobalt export ban to October 15, 2025, and limiting export quotas for 2026-2027 to only 44% of annual production [2]. - Huachuang Securities believes that the Congolese government's ban and quota policy will exacerbate the shortage of cobalt raw materials, potentially accelerating the rise in cobalt prices [2]. - Minsheng Securities indicates that the Congolese government's firm stance on supporting cobalt prices suggests a high likelihood of implementing quota systems, leading to a contraction in supply and a clear upward shift in cobalt price levels [2].