Core Viewpoint - The recent transfer of shares in Liqin Resources (02245) indicates a strategic shift in shareholder interests, with a significant market value involved in the transaction [1] Group 1: Shareholder Activity - On October 14, Liqin Resources' shares were transferred from HSBC to CITIC Lyon Securities, with a market value of HKD 618 million, representing 4.09% of the company [1] Group 2: Production Capacity and Projects - Liqin Resources, in partnership with collaborators, is investing in nickel smelting production lines on Obi Island, Indonesia, with a planned total capacity of 120,000 tons of nickel and 14,000 tons of cobalt, with equity capacity of 69,000 tons of nickel and 8,200 tons of cobalt, expected to be fully operational by 2024 [1] - The first phase of the pyrometallurgical project has a capacity of 95,000 tons and is set to commence production in 2023, while parts of the second phase are expected to start in the first half of 2025, with full production by 2026, increasing total capacity to 280,000 tons and equity capacity to 155,000 tons, showcasing significant production flexibility [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the transfer of shares of Liken Resources (02245) from HSBC to CITIC Securities, with a market value of HKD 618 million, representing 4.09% of the total shares [1] Group 2 - Minsheng Securities reports that Liken Resources is collaborating with partners to invest in nickel smelting production lines on Obi Island, Indonesia, with a planned wet process capacity of 120,000 tons of nickel and 14,000 tons of cobalt, and an equity capacity of 69,000 tons of nickel and 8,200 tons of cobalt, expected to be fully operational by 2024 [1] - The company has a pyrometallurgical project with a phase one capacity of 95,000 tons, which is set to commence production in 2023, while part of the phase two production lines is expected to be operational in the first half of 2025, with full production by 2026, increasing total capacity to 280,000 tons and equity capacity to 155,000 tons, indicating significant production flexibility [1]

Group 1 - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell by 3.49%, down 916 points, closing at 25,373 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 4.54%. The morning trading volume reached HKD 281.8 billion [1] - Jinli Permanent Magnet (06680) surged over 12% as a rare earth giant announced price increases, with institutions optimistic about the strengthening strategic position of rare earths [1] - Semiconductor stocks rose against the trend, with Huahong Semiconductor (01347) increasing by 3.6%, driven by escalating competition in the technology sector and multiple catalysts for the semiconductor industry [1] - Kingsoft (03888) saw a rise of over 18% at one point, closing up over 9%, as external frictions escalate, highlighting the trend towards self-controlled industries and investment opportunities in the Xinchuang sector [1] - Gold stocks mostly rose due to risk aversion, with spot gold breaking through USD 4,060. Zijin Mining International (02259) increased by 4.6%, and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (06693) rose by 2.5% [1] Group 2 - MicroPort Scientific-B (02252) rose over 2% as its commercialization process accelerated, with overseas orders exceeding 60 units [2] Group 3 - Liqin Resources (02245) increased by over 5% following the implementation of cobalt export quotas in the Democratic Republic of Congo [3] - China Merchants Energy (01138) rose over 4% due to seasonal demand and event disturbances, with institutions expecting stronger freight rates [3] - Domestic insurance stocks fell across the board, with Tianan Insurance announcing a debt default of CNY 5.3 billion, which institutions suggest may mark the beginning of market-driven risk pricing. New China Life Insurance (01336) fell by 5%, China Pacific Insurance (02328) by 3.9%, and China Taiping Insurance (02601) by 3.6% [3] Group 4 - Pharmaceutical stocks continued their recent downward trend, with Junshi Biosciences (01877) dropping nearly 10.6% and Kanglong Chemical (03759) falling over 9% [4] Group 5 - Apple-related stocks experienced significant declines, with Hongteng Precision (06088) dropping over 10%, as institutions stated that the impact of tariffs on the supply chain should not be overestimated [5]

Group 1 - The stock of Liqin Resources (02245) increased by over 8%, reaching 26.9 HKD, with a trading volume of 19.58 million HKD [1] - The Democratic Republic of Congo announced the lifting of the cobalt export ban on October 16, implementing annual export quota management, with a cap of 18,125 tons for the remainder of 2025 [1] - The DRC is the largest cobalt producer globally, accounting for 75.86% of the world's production in 2024 [1] Group 2 - Analysts predict that the DRC's export quota policy will lead to significantly lower global cobalt supply from 2025 to 2027, with shortages of 122,000 tons, 88,000 tons, and 97,000 tons respectively, potentially driving cobalt prices up [1] - Minsheng Securities noted that nickel prices are at a cyclical bottom with clear cost support, and the DRC's export ban has exacerbated domestic raw material shortages [2] - The company’s wet-process nickel production capacity is located in Indonesia, which is unaffected by the DRC's export restrictions, allowing it to benefit from rising cobalt prices [2]

Core Viewpoint - The lifting of the cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is expected to significantly impact global cobalt supply and prices, with the country being the largest producer globally, accounting for 75.86% of the world's production in 2024 [1] Group 1: Cobalt Market Impact - The DRC will lift its cobalt export ban on October 16, implementing an annual export quota management system, with a cap of 18,125 tons for the remainder of 2025 [1] - The export quota policy is projected to lead to a global cobalt supply shortage from 2025 to 2027, with shortfalls of 122,000 tons, 88,000 tons, and 97,000 tons respectively [1] - Analysts anticipate that cobalt prices are likely to rise significantly due to the expected supply constraints [1] Group 2: Nickel Market Dynamics - Indonesia's newly released RKAB regulations for 2026 are expected to boost nickel ore demand, supporting nickel prices [1] - Minsheng Securities noted that nickel prices are currently at a cyclical low, with clear cost support [1] Group 3: Company Growth Potential - The company has wet nickel production capacity located in Indonesia, which is not affected by the DRC's export restrictions, allowing it to fully benefit from rising cobalt prices [1] - The combination of new capacity release and cost advantages indicates significant growth potential for the company [1]

Group 1: Cobalt Export Quota in Congo - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has announced a cobalt export quota, effective from October 16, aimed at strengthening resource sovereignty and signaling a shift from a surplus to a shortage in the cobalt market, leading to a systematic increase in price levels [1] - The DRC's Strategic Mineral Market Regulatory Authority stated that miners will be allowed to export slightly over 18,000 tons of cobalt for the remainder of this year, with annual export limits of 96,600 tons for 2026 and 2027, which is less than half of last year's production [1] - The quota distribution includes major companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum, which received a quota of 31,200 tons (32.3%), exceeding some prior expectations [1] Group 2: Future Cobalt Supply and Demand - Institutions predict a cobalt supply gap in the next two years, with global supply expected to be 290,000 tons in 2024 (DRC 220,000 tons + Indonesia 28,000 tons) against a demand of 185,000 tons, resulting in a surplus of 105,000 tons; by 2026, supply is projected to drop to 180,000 tons (DRC 96,600 tons + Indonesia 40,000 tons) while demand will rise to 200,000 tons, leading to a shortfall of 20,000 tons [2] Group 3: Market Trends and Stock Performance - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 6.1%, with major U.S. stock indices also experiencing significant declines, indicating a bearish trend in the market [3] - Notable declines were observed in large tech stocks, with companies like Broadcom and Tesla dropping nearly 6% and 5.06% respectively, reflecting broader market challenges [3] Group 4: Rare Earth Prices - Baotou Steel and Northern Rare Earth announced an increase in rare earth concentrate prices for Q4 2025, with a projected 37.13% increase compared to Q3 [7] Group 5: Company Announcements - China Energy Construction signed three new energy EPC contracts worth approximately 27.45 billion USD (about 195.54 billion RMB) with Saudi companies [11] - Smoore International reported a record high quarterly revenue of approximately 4.1968 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of about 27.2% [12] - Kelun-Biotech's TROP2ADC drug received approval for a new indication, expanding its market potential in treating specific lung cancer cases [13] - Zhaojin Mining reported a net profit of approximately 2.117 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 140.43% [14]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) government has issued conditions for obtaining and distributing cobalt export quotas, effective from October 16, 2025 [1][2] - The DRC is expected to contribute 76% of global cobalt production in 2024, with a projected reduction in export supply over the next two years [10][11] - The report highlights potential supply shortages in the cobalt market due to various companies facing operational challenges [8][10] Summary by Sections Export Quota Details - The basic export quotas for cobalt in 2025 are set at 3,625 tons for October, and 7,250 tons for both November and December [2] - Quotas are allocated based on historical export volumes from January 1, 2022, to December 31, 2024, with specific exclusions for certain companies [2][3] Company-Specific Quotas - Key companies and their basic export quotas for Q4 2025 include: - Luoyang Molybdenum: 6,650 tons - Glencore: 3,925 tons - Eurasian Resources: 2,125 tons - Gecamines: 1,475 tons [6][16] - The 2026 quotas for these companies are projected to be significantly higher, indicating a potential increase in production capacity [7] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report anticipates a supply gap of approximately 25,500 tons in 2027, driven by increasing global demand for cobalt, particularly in electric vehicles [12][13] - The DRC's export supply is expected to decrease significantly, with a projected reduction of 12,340 tons over the next two years [11][12] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as: - Luoyang Molybdenum, which will hold a significant share of the DRC's export quotas - Huayou Cobalt, with substantial production capacity in Indonesia - Other companies like Likin Resources and Greeenmei, which are expanding their nickel and cobalt production capabilities [15]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the dynamics of precious metals (gold, silver) and industrial metals (copper, cobalt) in the context of recent market changes and geopolitical factors [1][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Monetary Policy Impact**: The new Japanese Prime Minister's loose monetary policy contrasts with market expectations, alleviating the strength of the dollar and stimulating precious metal trading. This has led to increased expectations of currency devaluation globally, positively impacting commodity prices [1][4]. - **Copper Price Drivers**: Changes in the Central African copper mining assets and the Lobiito Corridor plan enhance companies like Glencore's pricing power. The reduction in output from Grasberg exacerbates supply tightness, driving copper prices upward [1][5]. - **Future Demand for Copper**: By 2030, investments in the power grid in China and the U.S. are expected to significantly boost industrial metal demand. Even without considering monetary easing, the trends of supply tightening and demand expansion indicate a bullish outlook for copper prices [1][6]. - **Valuation of Domestic Mining Companies**: Domestic mining companies are maturing in their valuation systems and are currently undervalued compared to international peers. They exhibit leading advantages in capital expenditure, resource capture, and cost reduction, positioning them favorably for future growth [1][7][8]. - **Precious Metals Performance**: From October 1 to 8, 2023, London spot gold and silver prices rose by 4.62% and 4.84%, respectively, driven by factors such as the U.S. government shutdown and Japan's monetary policy [1][9]. Additional Important Insights - **Cobalt Market Dynamics**: The cobalt price in China has surged to over 340,000 yuan per ton due to quota policies from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which are insufficient to meet global supply and demand, leading to a bullish sentiment in the market [2][14]. - **Impact of U.S. Tech Stocks on Gold**: Poor performance of U.S. tech stocks may increase the allocation of gold in personal asset portfolios. Notably, Oracle's cloud business gross margin fell short of expectations, raising concerns about the sustainability of AI profitability [10]. - **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: Continuous gold purchases by central banks, particularly by China, support gold prices. As of September, China's reserves reached 2,303.5 tons, although monthly purchases have shown a slight decline [15]. - **Stock Recommendations**: The call recommends several stocks in the precious metals and cobalt sectors, including Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and Luoyang Molybdenum, which are expected to benefit from current market conditions [16]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the interplay between monetary policy, market dynamics, and investment opportunities in the precious and industrial metals sectors.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant stock price increase of Liqin Resources (02245), which has risen over 6% recently and nearly 90% over the past ten trading days [1] - As of the report, the stock is trading at 28.64 HKD with a transaction volume of 203 million HKD [1] - The Democratic Republic of Congo has announced an extension of the cobalt export ban until October 15, with plans to lift the ban on October 16 and implement annual export quotas [1] Group 2 - Tianfeng Securities believes that the price center of cobalt is expected to rise in the medium to long term, and long-term assets in the equity sector may face revaluation [1] - Minsheng Securities points out that the company's wet nickel production capacity in Indonesia is substantial, with cost advantages that are likely to benefit significantly from rising cobalt prices [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant stock price increase of Liqian Resources (02245), which has risen over 6% recently and nearly 90% over the past ten trading days [1] - As of the report, the stock price is at 28.64 HKD with a trading volume of 203 million HKD [1] - The Democratic Republic of Congo has announced an extension of the cobalt export ban until October 15, with plans to lift it on October 16 and implement annual export quotas [1] Group 2 - Tianfeng Securities believes that the price center of cobalt is expected to rise in the medium to long term, and long-duration assets in the equity sector may face revaluation [1] - Minsheng Securities points out that the company's wet nickel production capacity in Indonesia is large and cost-effective, positioning it to benefit significantly from rising cobalt prices [1]