东吴证券研报指出，华友钴业预计25年归母净利58.5~64.5亿元，同比+40.8%~55.2%，其中25Q4归母净 利16.3~22.3亿元，同比+44%~97%，环比+9%~48%；25Q4业绩亮眼、超市场预期。价格方面，25Q4镍 均价1.5万美金，环比持平，但印尼政府计划26年减少采矿配额发放，以此挺价，12月镍价从底部1.45万 美金已提升至1.68万美金，若价格维持，26年公司镍单吨利润可增厚0.1万美金至0.4万美金，对应镍可 贡献40亿+利润。三元正极方面，预计25年近10万吨，同比翻番，三元前驱体近11万吨，26年预计平稳 增长。考虑到公司受益于价格全面上涨，该行上修25-27年归母净利润由60/90/109亿元至62/107/124亿 元，同增50%/72%/15%，对应PE为22x/13x/11x，给予26年20xPE，目标价113元，维持"买入"评级。 ...

业绩增长主要源于：（1）镍湿法产能逐步释放，印尼华飞项目实现达产超产，华越项目持续稳产高产； （2）下游材料业务恢复增长，锂电材料自上游到下游一体化带来的优势逐步释放，"产品领先、成本领 先"的竞争战略成效凸显。（3）钴价、锂价上涨，2025Q4 MB钴价（标准级）均价为23美元/磅，环比 +45%；2025Q4国内碳酸锂均价8.8万元/吨，环比+21%。 项目：12万吨金属镍Pomalaa项目已开工，硫酸锂项目有望进一步降本 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件： 华友钴业于2026年1月5日公告2025年业绩预增公告，预计2025年实现归属于上市公司股东净利润58.5-64.5 亿元，同比增长40.8%-55.2%；实现归属于上市公司股东扣除非经常性损益 ...

2026 年 1 月 6 日 公司研究 一体化产业链优势凸显，2025Q4 单季度净利润有望创历史新高 ——华友钴业（603799.SH）2025 年业绩预告点评 要点 事件 :华友钴业于 2026 年 1 月 5 日公告 2025 年业绩预增公告，预计 2025 年实 现归属于上市公司股东净利润 58.5-64.5 亿元，同比增长 40.8%-55.2%；实现归 属于上市公司股东扣除非经常性损益净利润 57-63 亿元，同比增长 47.6%-66%。 2025Q4 预计可实现归母净利润 16.3-22.3 亿元，中值为 19.3 亿元，环比+28%， 同比+70%。 点评： 业绩：印尼华飞镍项目投产，一体化产业链优势释放。业绩增长主要源于：（1） 镍湿法产能逐步释放，印尼华飞项目实现达产超产，华越项目持续稳产高产；（2） 下游材料业务恢复增长，锂电材料自上游到下游一体化带来的优势逐步释放， "产品领先、成本领先"的竞争战略成效凸显。（3）钴价、锂价上涨，2025Q4 MB 钴价（标准级）均价为 23 美元/磅，环比+45%；2025Q4 国内碳酸锂均价 8.8 万元/吨，环比+21%。 项目：12 万吨金属 ...

证券日报网讯1月5日，华友钴业（603799）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司充分发挥产业一体 化优势，深化上游资源布局，持续增厚镍钴资源储备，实现红土镍矿湿法冶炼项目持续稳产超产，不断 提升技术领先水平和成本控制能力，构建了极具竞争力的原料保障体系。同时，公司密切关注镍价及行 业供需变化，适时调整产品结构，科学应用套期保值等金融工具，动态优化应对策略。 ...

西部证券研报指出，市场认为公司是跟随钴价的β品种，但该行认为公司更大的看点在于镍，目前镍价 处于底部区域附近，2027-2028或有望迎来周期拐点；镍项目投资规模都较大，具备明显的资金和规模 壁垒；公司已实现镍矿-镍中间品-镍产品全产业链布局，核心竞争优势彰显，是比较稀缺的α型公司。 给予2025年26倍PE，目标价为78.98元/股，首次覆盖，给予"买入"评级。 ...

刚果金钴出口配额政策及海关流程问题导致中国国内钴供应紧张，预计 2026 年一季度钴价将保持乐观，或涨至 50 万元/吨，但 3 月初原料到 达后可能回调，大幅跌破 40 万元可能性小。若到货量低于预期，价格 或再次上涨；若符合预期，大企业控制供应也可能维持高位，全年钴价 有望维持在 50 万元以上，甚至 60 万元。 印尼镍项目投产虽能部分对冲刚果金出口限制，但无法完全弥补缺口。 预计 2025 年印尼镍项目带来约 4 万吨钴供应，其中不到 3 万吨进入中 国，2026 年增量约 1 万吨，难以弥补刚果金缺口。2027 年底或 2028 年初，新建湿法项目投产后，钴供应将显著增加，逐步解决原料短缺问 题。 预计 2026 年全球钴实际供应量约为 21.5 万吨，增量主要来自印尼和黑 粉回收。2025 年全球供应量约为 20 万吨，而 2026 年精炼钴产量预计 接近 22 万吨，供需紧张局面将持续，库存已消耗过去几年过剩量，明 年紧张状况延续。 2025 年全球精炼钴需求量约为 22 万吨，同比增长约 3%，主要由骨传 导技术和 3C 电子消费推动，动力电池领域消费呈下降趋势。预计 2026 钴镍行业观点交 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) regarding cobalt export quotas is expected to positively impact cobalt prices and benefit companies like Liqin Resources, which has significant operations in Indonesia [1] Group 1: Cobalt Export Quota Policy - The DRC will implement a cobalt export quota system starting from October 16, 2025, with a remaining export limit of 18,100 tons for the rest of 2025 [1] - The annual quota for 2026-2027 is set at 96,600 tons, allocated based on companies' historical export volumes, with unused quotas transferable to strategic quotas [1] - The government retains the right to make dynamic adjustments to the quotas [1] Group 2: Market Implications - Tianfeng Securities suggests that the new quota policy indicates a long-term balance or even a shortage in supply and demand, leading to an expected increase in cobalt prices [1] - CICC notes that the total cobalt export quota for 2026/2027 will only account for 44% of the DRC's cobalt production in 2024, indicating a tightening supply [1] - The tightening of export quotas is anticipated to drive cobalt prices higher, benefiting Liqin Resources' wet processing capacity in Indonesia and potentially leading to an expansion in the nickel industry chain [1]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of cobalt export quotas by the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is expected to impact cobalt prices positively, benefiting companies like Liqin Resources [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Liqin Resources (02245) saw a stock price increase of 5.3%, reaching HKD 19.2, with a trading volume of HKD 28.05 million [1] Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The DRC will implement a cobalt export quota system starting October 16, 2025, with a remaining export limit of 18,100 tons for 2025 and annual quotas of 96,600 tons for 2026-2027 [1] - The quotas will be allocated based on companies' historical export volumes, with unused quotas transferable to strategic quotas, allowing the government to adjust dynamically [1] - Tianfeng Securities noted that the new quota policy could lead to a supply-demand balance or even a shortage, which may elevate cobalt prices in the long term [1] - CICC highlighted that the total cobalt export quota for 2026/2027 will only account for 44% of DRC's cobalt production in 2024, indicating tightening supply [1] - The tightening of export quotas is expected to drive cobalt prices higher, benefiting Liqin Resources' wet-process capacity in Indonesia and potential expansion in the nickel industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - Huayou Cobalt achieved revenue and profit growth in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating strong operational performance and effective business strategies [2] Financial Performance - The company reported a cumulative operating revenue of 58.941 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 29.57% [2] - The cumulative net profit attributable to shareholders reached 4.216 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 39.59% [2] - In the third quarter alone, the company achieved an operating revenue of 21.744 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.35% [2] - The net profit for the third quarter was 1.505 billion yuan, showing a quarter-on-quarter growth of 3.18% [2] Business Operations - The company's precursor business for cobalt and nickel raw materials is fully self-sufficient [2] - The Pomalaa project in Indonesia is expected to be completed and commence production by the end of next year [2]

Core Points - Tengyuan Cobalt Industry (301219.SZ) closed at 64.36 yuan, with a decline of 3.80%, and a total market capitalization of 18.968 billion yuan, currently in a state of breaking issue [1] - The company was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's ChiNext board on March 17, 2022, with an initial public offering (IPO) of 31.4869 million shares at a price of 173.98 yuan per share [1][2] - The total funds raised from the IPO amounted to 5.478 billion yuan, with a net amount of 5.204 billion yuan after deducting issuance costs, exceeding the original plan by 3.006 billion yuan [2] Fund Utilization - The funds raised were intended for projects including an annual production capacity of 20,000 tons of cobalt and 10,000 tons of nickel metal products, as well as for working capital [2] - The total issuance costs were 274 million yuan, with the underwriting fees for the sponsor, Dongxing Securities, amounting to 245 million yuan [2] Dividend Distribution - In 2021, the company announced a dividend distribution plan of 39.9 yuan per 10 shares (including tax) and a capital reserve increase of 8 shares for every 10 shares held [2] - For the year 2022, the company proposed a cash dividend of 12.00 yuan per 10 shares (including tax), totaling 272.046 million yuan, along with a capital reserve increase of 3 shares for every 10 shares held, increasing the total share capital to 294,717,182 shares [3]