Core Viewpoint - The gold price is nearing $5,600 per ounce, but gold mining stocks are experiencing a pullback, indicating market skepticism about the sustainability of high gold prices [1][2] Group 1: Gold Price and Market Performance - On January 29, the London spot gold price approached $5,600 per ounce, while gold mining stocks in both A-shares and Hong Kong showed a trend of retreating after initial gains [1] - Specific stocks such as Zhaojin Mining (01818.HK) and Zijin Mining International (02259.HK) saw declines exceeding 2% [1] - In the A-share market, leading stocks like Shandong Gold (600547.SH) and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988.SH) reported increases of 3.89% and 4.55%, respectively [1] Group 2: ETF and Investment Trends - The gold stock ETF (517520) experienced a high turnover of 2.618 billion yuan in half a day, surpassing the previous day's total of 2.019 billion yuan [1] - The tracked gold stock index (931238) has yielded nearly 172% over the past year as of January 28 [1] - The E Fund Gold ETF (159934) rose by 5.13% with a transaction volume of 2.838 billion yuan, approaching the previous day's turnover of 3.624 billion yuan [1] Group 3: Analyst Insights - Analysts suggest that despite the current high gold prices, gold mining stocks are not performing in tandem, reflecting market expectations of a lack of sustainability in high gold prices [2] - The volatility in external markets, particularly the decline in the US dollar index, has contributed to the rise in gold prices [2] - Given the significant short-term gains in both gold prices and mining stocks, some technical indicators are showing signs of being overbought, indicating a potential short-term pullback [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the divergence between rising gold prices and the performance of gold mining stocks, highlighting market expectations and funding conditions as key factors influencing this trend [2][3][4]. Group 1: Gold Price and Mining Stocks Performance - On January 29, gold prices approached $5,600 per ounce, while gold mining stocks in both A-shares and Hong Kong experienced a pullback, with some stocks declining over 2% [2]. - The gold stock ETF saw a half-day trading volume of 2.618 billion yuan, surpassing the previous day's total of 2.019 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 443 million yuan on January 28 [2]. - The gold ETF managed by E Fund rose by 5.13% on January 29, with a trading volume of 2.838 billion yuan, nearing the previous day's volume of 3.624 billion yuan, which had a net inflow of 1.083 billion yuan [2]. Group 2: Market Expectations and Funding Conditions - Analysts suggest that the lack of synchronization between gold prices and mining stocks is due to market expectations that current high gold prices may not be sustainable [3][4]. - Investors are currently more inclined to invest directly in physical gold or gold ETFs rather than mining stocks, as direct ownership avoids risks associated with operational costs and production efficiency [4]. - The divergence in performance among gold mining stocks is attributed to differing market expectations, with profit-taking and cautious attitudes from new investors leading to a pullback in high-priced stocks [4].

港股100研究中心顾问余丰慧认为，当前金价维持高位，而金矿股出现冲高回落的现象，主要可以从资 金面和市场预期两个角度来解读：从资金面来看，投资者在面对不确定性的宏观经济环境时，更倾向于 直接投资于实物黄金或黄金ETF等产品，而非金矿公司的股票。这是因为直接持有黄金可以避免企业特 有的风险，如运营成本上升、生产效率低下等，在市场预期方面，尽管金价上涨反映了避险需求的增 加，但金矿股的表现还受到公司自身经营状况、未来盈利预期等因素的影响。 1月29日上午交易时段，伦敦金现货价格继续高歌猛进，一度逼近5600美元/盎司，但A股和港股的金矿 股却出现冲高回落的走势，港股的部分个股甚至出现了下跌。 光大证券国际策略师伍礼贤向第一财经分析，当前黄金价格继续创出新高，但金矿股表现未能同步跟 随，反映出市场预期当前高位金价并不具备持续性特征。近期外部市场波动性较大，特别是美元指数回 落推动金价上行。但对于金矿股而言，市场通常以年度平均金价水平作为评估基准，进而判断全年业绩 增长预期，因此尽管当前金价处于高位，金矿股表现也未必完全跟随黄金价格走势。股价短线累计涨幅 较大，金价同样如此，部分技术指标已严重超买，短期可能出现回落， ...

智通财经APP获悉，东北证券发布研报称，维持紫金黄金国际(02259)"买入"评级，随金价上涨、Allied Gold收购完成，将公司2025/2026/2027年归母净利润上修至15.4/39.9/49.3亿美元，同比增速 220%/159%/24%。考虑到金价长牛背景，叠加公司资源获取能力、矿山运营能力、产量兑现能力等α属 性强大。 Allied Gold还有进一步降本的空间，紫金赋能后业绩有望显著改善 25Q1-Q3，Sadiola/Bonikro/Agbaou的AISC成本分别为2067/1647/2403美元/盎司，平均AISC成本超2000 美元/盎司，但未来整体有望改善：1)Sadiola二期投产后，增设重油机组+光伏+储能系统，幅降低现有 能源成本，AISC预计降至1200美元/盎司;2)Kurmuk投产后，目前预计的全生命周期AISC<950美元/盎司; 此外，通过紫金赋能，完善采选方案设计、优化供应链管理等方式，Allied Gold成本有望得到更好控制 (参考奥罗拉、罗斯贝尔等在被紫金收购后迅速扭亏为盈，完成价值修复)。 紫金黄金国际拟以44加元/股，总对价55亿加元(约280亿人民币) ...

| | | 黄金股全线高开，截至发稿，赤峰黄金（600988）(06693)涨6.2%，报49港元；山东黄金（600547） (01787)涨4.49%，报53.5港元；招金矿业(01818)涨3.04%，报42港元；紫金黄金国际(02259)涨1.9%，报 258港元。 消息面上，美国总统特朗普表示，一支庞大的舰队正前往伊朗，已准备好迅速履行其使命。希望伊朗能 够迅速坐到谈判桌前。伊朗外长回应美方威胁称，伊朗武装力量高度戒备。此外，匈牙利可能考虑提高 央行储备中黄金的占比，波兰央行已批准一项购买多达150吨黄金的计划。 值得注意的是，1月29日，现货黄金首次突破5500美元/盎司大关，再创历史新高。大摩发布研报称，波 兰央行正转向以绝对吨位数作为黄金储备目标，而非占总储备比例，显示其对价格敏感度降低。该行认 为黄金涨势尚未结束，强调对2026年下半年的牛市情境目标为每盎司5700美元。 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 黄金股早盘全线高开，截至发稿，赤峰黄金（06693）上涨4.81%，报48.36港元；山东黄金（01787）上 涨3.71%，报53.10港元；招金矿业（01818）上涨0.59%，报41港元；紫金黄金国际（02259）上涨 2.29%，报259港元。 责任编辑：卢昱君 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 黄金股早盘全线高开，截至发稿，赤峰黄金（06693）上涨4.81%，报48.36港元；山东黄金（01787）上 涨3.71%，报53.10港元；招金矿业（01818）上涨0.59%，报41港元；紫金黄金国际（02259）上涨 2.29%，报259港元。 责任编辑：卢昱君 ...

值得注意的是，1月29日，现货黄金首次突破5500美元/盎司大关，再创历史新高。大摩发布研报称，波 兰央行正转向以绝对吨位数作为黄金储备目标，而非占总储备比例，显示其对价格敏感度降低。该行认 为黄金涨势尚未结束，强调对2026年下半年的牛市情境目标为每盎司5700美元。 消息面上，美国总统特朗普表示，一支庞大的舰队正前往伊朗，已准备好迅速履行其使命。希望伊朗能 够迅速坐到谈判桌前。伊朗外长回应美方威胁称，伊朗武装力量高度戒备。此外，匈牙利可能考虑提高 央行储备中黄金的占比，波兰央行已批准一项购买多达150吨黄金的计划。 智通财经APP获悉，黄金股全线高开，截至发稿，赤峰黄金(06693)涨6.2%，报49港元；山东黄金 (01787)涨4.49%，报53.5港元；招金矿业(01818)涨3.04%，报42港元；紫金黄金国际(02259)涨1.9%，报 258港元。 ...

吴梓杰告诉期货日报记者，对企业自身而言，这种"以价换量"的扩张逻辑，一方面能通过整合低成本在 产项目有效摊薄整体生产成本，增强抗风险能力；另一方面能通过产量的阶梯式增长直接提振盈利预期 和市场估值，巩固其在全球矿业版图中的领先地位。尽管面临地缘政治风险和市场不确定性，但优质金 矿资产作为抵御通胀和波动的"硬通货"，依然是头部企业实现战略转型与跨越式发展的较优路径。 据记者了解，联合黄金核心资产分布于非洲三大金矿成矿区，包括在产的马里Sadiola金矿、科特迪瓦金 矿综合体（含Bonikro和Agbaou金矿），以及将于2026年下半年建成投产的埃塞俄比亚Kurmuk金矿。截 至2024年年底，联合黄金拥有黄金资源量533吨，平均品位1.48克/吨；保有矿石储量2.37亿吨，黄金金 属量337吨，平均品位1.42克/吨。 产量方面，联合黄金2023年、2024年分别产金10.7吨、11.1吨，预计2025年产金11.7~12.4吨。依托 Sadiola项目改扩建及Kurmuk新项目投产，其2029年黄金产量有望跃升至25吨，届时将成为紫金矿业全 球黄金生产的核心支柱之一。另外，Kurmuk项目投产后全维持成本预 ...

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market continued its upward trend with all three major indices closing higher: Hang Seng Index up 2.58% at 27,826.91 points, Hang Seng Tech Index up 2.53% at 5,900.16 points, and the National Enterprises Index up 2.89% at 9,512.24 points [2] - Leading sectors included optical communications, oil, gold, telecommunications, and real estate, while tea and aviation stocks faced downward pressure [3] Optical Communications - Demand for AI infrastructure has spurred the optical communications industry, with Changfei Optical Fiber Cable (06869.HK) leading the sector, closing up 15.43% at 75.20 HKD [4][5] - Corning, a major player in the fiber optics market, saw a single-day increase of over 15%, reaching a historical high, following a long-term agreement with Meta for the procurement of $6 billion worth of fiber optic cables by 2030 [4] Energy Sector - Geopolitical risks have heightened energy security expectations, with China National Offshore Oil Corporation (00883.HK) and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (00857.HK) both reaching historical highs, closing up 4.85% and 4.99% respectively [5][6] - The U.S. military's recent military exercises in the Middle East have raised concerns about energy supply stability, contributing to the rise in oil stocks [6] Gold Market - The weakening U.S. dollar has stimulated international gold prices, with Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (06693.HK) rising 10.65% [7] - The dollar index experienced its largest single-day drop since April 2023, pushing gold prices above $5,200 per ounce [7] Telecommunications - The telecommunications sector is entering a new phase of "deep integration," with China Telecom (00728.HK) rising 6.27% [9] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reported that the three major operators have added 108,000 data center racks, indicating a shift in focus from "broad coverage" to "deep integration" [9] Real Estate - Regulatory optimizations have boosted confidence in the real estate sector, with China Jinmao (00817.HK) rising 11.92% [11] - Feedback from multiple real estate companies indicates that the regulatory body has lifted the monthly reporting requirements for most firms, enhancing market expectations for liquidity and operational environment improvements [11] Individual Stock Movements - Wuneng Zhixing (00800.HK) rose 2.11% as it prepares to launch autonomous buses in Abu Dhabi [17][18] - Kuaishou-W (01024.HK) increased by 4.44%, with its AI product, Keling, surpassing 12 million monthly active users and achieving a 350% growth in paid users [19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase exceeding 15% over the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The acquisition of Allied Gold for CAD 5.5 billion (approximately RMB 28 billion) at CAD 44 per share represents a 5.39% premium over the closing price on January 23 [1]. - The acquisition is expected to increase the company's resource and reserve volumes by 25% and 33%, respectively, enhancing its production capabilities significantly [2]. - The report forecasts substantial profit growth for the company, with net profits projected to reach USD 15.4 billion, USD 39.9 billion, and USD 49.3 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 220%, 159%, and 24% [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from USD 2.26 billion in 2023 to USD 12.91 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 75.55% from 2024 to 2025 [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from USD 230 million in 2023 to USD 4.93 billion in 2027, indicating a significant upward trend in profitability [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from USD 0.42 in 2023 to USD 1.84 in 2027, showcasing strong earnings growth potential [4].