证券研究报告 2026 年 02 月 27 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 中药行业 价值重塑之年，寻找确定性α 相关研究： 1. 《行业未来五年有望迎来快 速转型发展期》 20260208 2. 《基药目录管理办法发布， 中药行业将进入循证驱动新周 期》 20260215 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 -10 0 10 20 30 25/02 25/05 25/08 25/11 沪深300_累计 中药_累计 | % | 1 个月 | 3 个月 | 12 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 相对收益 | -1 | -7 | -19 | | 绝对收益 | -1 | -2 | 2 | | | | 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 | | 分析师：许雯 证书编号：S0500517110001 Tel：021-50293534 Email：xw3315@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 核心要点： 从历次全国中成药集采来看，呈现出覆盖范围扩大、集采规则优化、 敬请阅读末页之重要声明 ❑ 2025 年行业在阵痛中筑底，2026 年关注政 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese medicine ETF (560080) has shown positive performance with most constituent stocks rising, indicating a favorable market sentiment towards the Chinese medicine sector [1][6]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Major stocks in the Chinese medicine ETF have seen significant gains, with Da Ren Tang rising over 4%, Pian Zai Huang over 3%, and Tong Ren Tang over 2% [1]. - The estimated weights and performance of key stocks include: - Yunnan Baiyao at 10.56% with a 1.47% increase - Pian Zai Huang at 9.21% with a 3.78% increase - Dong E E Jiao at 6.18% with a 0.73% increase [2]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - The launch of the first "Traditional Chinese Medicine Brain-Machine Interface" equipment marks a significant technological advancement, aimed at treating neurological disorders [3]. - This technology integrates brain-machine interface with acupuncture, showcasing innovation in the field of traditional medicine [3]. Group 3: Policy Developments - The implementation of the "Drug Administration Law Implementation Regulations" emphasizes a review system for traditional Chinese medicine based on traditional theories, human experience, and clinical data [4]. - The regulations aim to ensure the safety and traceability of traditional Chinese medicine products, which may lead to industry consolidation and growth for leading companies [4]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Three main investment themes in the Chinese medicine sector are identified: 1. Price governance, focusing on competitive products and companies that can leverage price reductions for volume growth [5]. 2. Consumption recovery, driven by macroeconomic improvement and an aging population, benefiting companies with strong brand and product advantages [7]. 3. State-owned enterprise reform, which may enhance performance through efficiency improvements in state-controlled companies [8]. Group 5: Market Activity - The Chinese medicine ETF (560080) has seen increased trading activity, with a transaction volume nearing 1 billion yuan and significant capital inflow over recent days [6].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share pharmaceutical sector has gained renewed investor interest due to the resurgence of COVID-19 cases in India, leading to fluctuations in the Chinese medicine ETF (560080) and notable stock performance among key companies in the sector [1][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Chinese medicine ETF (560080) experienced a nearly 2% decline on January 27, following a more than 1.4% increase the previous day, with trading volume surpassing 85 million yuan [1]. - Notable declines were observed in key stocks within the ETF, including Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical down over 7% and Yiling Pharmaceutical down over 5%, with several others also experiencing declines [3]. Group 2: Valuation Insights - The latest price-to-earnings ratio (PE TTM) for the index tracked by the Chinese medicine ETF (560080) is 24.57, indicating that the valuation is below 81.27% of the time since the index was published in May 2015, suggesting a favorable valuation opportunity [4]. Group 3: Company News - Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical announced a projected net profit of 260 million to 310 million yuan for 2025, marking a significant turnaround with an increase of 186.91% to 203.62% year-on-year [7]. - Yiling Pharmaceutical also forecasted a net profit of 1.2 billion to 1.3 billion yuan for 2025, indicating a key operational turning point [7]. - Kangyuan Pharmaceutical received approval for clinical trials of a new traditional Chinese medicine aimed at treating children's adenoid hypertrophy, marking a step forward in innovation [7]. Group 4: Industry Trends - The Chinese traditional medicine market is projected to exceed 700 billion yuan in 2024, driven by stable demand amid an aging population, although pricing volatility has been influenced by inventory adjustments and procurement policies [8]. - The industry is experiencing a consolidation trend, with leading companies capturing over half of the market revenue and profits, while ongoing policy focus on innovation and quality development is reshaping the competitive landscape [8].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious investment outlook for the Chinese traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) industry, highlighting short-term pressures and long-term quality improvement opportunities [2]. Core Insights - The TCM industry is experiencing stable demand due to an aging population, with the market size expected to exceed 700 billion yuan by 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 6.6% [4][11]. - The financial performance of TCM listed companies is under pressure, with high sales expenses eroding profits and increasing internal differentiation among companies [11][25]. - The competitive landscape is characterized by a high concentration of revenue and profits among the top tier of companies, which hold over half of the industry's income and profits due to proprietary formulas and brand advantages [20][22]. Industry Overview - The TCM industry has a well-established supply chain, with stable demand driven by an increasing elderly population, projected to reach 220 million by the end of 2024, a 1.36% increase from 2023 [4]. - The industry is facing significant price fluctuations due to inventory destocking, upstream capacity changes, and downstream procurement policies [4][5]. - The TCM manufacturing sector consists of approximately 5,000 companies, primarily located in regions such as Jilin, Guangdong, Anhui, and Henan [4]. Financial Performance of TCM Companies - As of 2024, there are 70 listed TCM manufacturing companies, with an average annual revenue of about 340 billion yuan and an average profit of around 34 billion yuan [11][13]. - The overall profit margin for TCM companies is below 20%, indicating a challenging financial environment [11]. - The sales gross margin for sample companies remains stable at around 55%, while the sales expense ratio is approximately 24% [14][18]. Competitive Landscape - The first tier of TCM companies, including Yunnan Baiyao and Tongrentang, dominate the market, accounting for over 52% of total revenue and profits [22][25]. - The second tier includes regional leaders with a more diverse product range, while the third tier consists of smaller companies with concentrated product lines [23][24]. - The financial data shows that the first tier companies have significantly higher equity scales, providing a solid foundation for market expansion and R&D [26]. Industry Policies - Recent policies emphasize innovation and quality improvement in the TCM sector, with initiatives aimed at enhancing regulatory frameworks and promoting high-quality development [27][28]. - The government has outlined plans to establish national laboratories and improve the quality of TCM products through stricter regulations [28][29]. TCM Procurement Situation - The gradual implementation of TCM procurement policies has led to significant price reductions, with the average price drop reaching 68% in recent rounds of procurement [31][34]. - The procurement process is designed to promote standardization and quality control, which may lead to increased market concentration among leading companies [31][40]. - The report notes that the procurement policies have created challenges for TCM companies, particularly regarding profitability due to cost pressures [40]. TCM Innovation Drug Development - The TCM sector has seen a surge in innovation, with a notable increase in clinical trial applications and new drug approvals, particularly in areas such as digestion and respiratory health [41][42]. - The number of IND applications for TCM has grown significantly, indicating a robust pipeline for future product development [42][43].

Macro Strategy - Recent international gold prices are fluctuating at high levels, with domestic jewelry gold prices also remaining elevated. There is a new trend in gold consumption favoring lighter products like gold bars. Short-term gold prices are expected to maintain high volatility. Consumers should pay attention to international gold price fluctuations if investing, and choose purchasing timing based on their budget for wearing needs [2][3] - From January to October, the national general public budget revenue reached 18.649 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%. The national general public budget expenditure was 22.5825 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2%. Securities transaction stamp duty revenue was 162.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 88.1% [2] - By the end of 2024, the total asset scale of urban commercial banks in China is projected to be 60.15 trillion yuan, a 134-fold increase since 1995, accounting for 13.53% of the banking financial institutions, with a market share increase of 8.24 percentage points. The non-performing loan ratio is 1.76%, and the provision coverage ratio is 188.08% [2] Industry and Company Medical Services Industry - The medical and biological sector rose by 3.29%, ranking fifth among the 31 first-level industries. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell by 1.08%, indicating that the medical sector outperformed the index by 4.37 percentage points [6] - The PE (ttm) of the medical services sector is 33.47X, with a PB (lf) of 3.37X. The PE increased by 0.51X and the PB increased by 0.05X compared to the previous week [7][8] - The TIDES CRDMO market is expected to grow significantly, with the global market projected to increase from 2.1 billion USD in 2018 to 5.5 billion USD in 2023, with a CAGR of 20.9%, and further to 37.3 billion USD by 2032, with a CAGR of 23.8%. The Chinese market is expected to grow from 200 million USD in 2018 to 800 million USD in 2023, with a CAGR of 37.1%, and to 6.2 billion USD by 2032, with a CAGR of 25.5% [9] - Investment recommendations for the medical services sector include focusing on high-growth companies in the ADC CDMO and TIDES CDMO areas, as well as companies in the third-party testing laboratories and consumer medical sectors [10] Traditional Chinese Medicine Industry - The traditional Chinese medicine sector rose by 4.08%, ranking third among secondary sub-sectors. Companies such as Te Yi Pharmaceutical and Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical performed well, while others like *ST Changyao and ST Huluwa performed poorly [12] - The PE (ttm) for the traditional Chinese medicine sector is 29.25X, with a PB (lf) of 2.47X, indicating a slight increase from the previous week [13][14] - The market for traditional Chinese medicinal materials is experiencing volatility, with an overall supply surplus due to increased arrivals from new harvests. Recent weather conditions have also impacted harvesting [15] - The steady advancement of centralized procurement in the traditional Chinese medicine industry aims to reduce patient medication costs and shift competition towards cost control and quality standards [16][17] - Investment recommendations for the traditional Chinese medicine sector include focusing on companies with competitive advantages in product quality and cost, as well as those benefiting from national reforms and centralized procurement policies [18][19]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Overweight" [6] Core Views - The Chinese medicine industry is experiencing steady progress in centralized procurement, with a focus on companies that have advantages in product variety, quality, and cost [5][9] - The market performance of the Chinese medicine sector has shown a 4.08% increase recently, ranking third among secondary sub-sectors [2][13] - The price governance policies are expected to lead to a clearer differentiation within the industry, benefiting companies with competitive advantages [10][11] Market Performance - The Chinese medicine sector's PE (ttm) is 29.25X, which has increased by 1.14X week-on-week, while the PB (lf) is 2.47X, up by 0.1X [3] - The overall market for Chinese medicinal materials is experiencing volatility, with a recent price index of 225.47 points, down 0.2% from the previous week [4] Centralized Procurement - The fourth batch of centralized procurement for traditional Chinese medicine has been initiated, with significant competition in certain product groups [5] - The "3+N" alliance in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has also started procurement for 200 types of Chinese medicine formula granules [5] Investment Suggestions - Focus on three main lines: price governance, consumption recovery, and state-owned enterprise reform [10][11] - Recommended companies include Zhaoli Pharmaceutical and Yiling Pharmaceutical, with a watch on Pizaihuang and Shouxiangu [11]

Core Viewpoint - The company is focusing on its main business while expanding its product offerings in traditional Chinese medicine, particularly in the herbal medicine segment [1] Group 1: Company Strategy - The company is actively selling its main products, including Yuanhu Zhitong Diban and Xuanfei Zhiso Heji, while also developing its herbal medicine business [1] - The company has not yet participated in centralized procurement for its herbal medicine products and is monitoring related policies and market dynamics [1] Group 2: Market Positioning - The company aims to align its herbal medicine business with market demand and its strategic planning to create value for itself and its shareholders [1]

Group 1: Company Performance and Sales - As of the end of Q3 2025, Wuling Capsules have been adopted by over 15,000 hospitals, with ongoing collection procurement in 6 provinces including Zhejiang and Shanghai [2] - The company expects Wuling Capsules to maintain steady growth, driven by market access benefits from national procurement and enhanced patient education [2] - The Bai Ling series has been included in national procurement across 30 provinces, with a goal to achieve a sales scale of 1 billion RMB for Bai Ling Tablets [3] Group 2: Marketing and Distribution Strategies - The company is actively expanding its presence in chain pharmacies and has formed strategic partnerships with leading pharmacy chains to enhance patient management [4] - Digital marketing efforts are being intensified through collaborations with platforms like Meituan and Ele.me, aiming to capture the young user market [4] - The company plans to integrate other products into its retail strategy to enhance overall product distribution and sales [4] Group 3: Impact of Procurement Policies - The upcoming national procurement 2.0 for traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) is expected to include nearly 100 products, which may lead to price reductions but also promote industry standardization [5][6] - The company is enhancing its competitive edge by collaborating with standardized planting bases and establishing a traceability system for TCM products [6] Group 4: Financial Metrics and Projections - The overall gross margin has slightly decreased due to changes in product mix and price reductions from procurement policies affecting Wuling and Bai Ling series products [9] - Accounts receivable have increased due to higher sales revenue and longer payment cycles from hospital clients, aligning with the company's credit policies [9]

Core Viewpoint - Hongri Pharmaceutical is experiencing significant declines in both revenue and profit, raising concerns in the investment market about its future performance and management strategies [1][2][9]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Hongri Pharmaceutical reported an operating income of 5.783 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.34%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 21.47 million yuan, down 95.76% [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company recorded an operating income of 4.149 billion yuan, a decline of 6.59%, and a net profit of 80.76 million yuan, down 52.03% [1][2]. - The company's non-recurring net profit turned negative, with a loss of 760.71 million yuan in 2024 and a decrease of 43.81% in the first three quarters of 2025 [1][2][3]. Cost Management Efforts - Hongri Pharmaceutical has implemented cost-cutting measures, resulting in a 7.35% reduction in sales expenses, a 0.73% decrease in management expenses, a 13.87% reduction in R&D expenses, and a 64.26% decrease in financial expenses for the first three quarters of 2025 [3]. Product Portfolio and Market Position - The company operates in various sectors, including traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) granules, finished pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and healthcare services, with a primary revenue source from the TCM segment [4]. - Key products include TCM granules and Xuebijing injection, which has been recognized for its efficacy in treating sepsis [4][5]. Market Challenges - The TCM granule market is highly competitive, with major players including China Traditional Chinese Medicine, Huaren Sanjiu, and others, leading to intensified competition due to policy relaxations and market expansions [7]. - Price fluctuations from centralized procurement initiatives have impacted profit margins for TCM products, with significant collective procurement efforts affecting the market [7][8]. Investor Sentiment and Management Response - Investors have expressed concerns regarding the company's prolonged stock price stagnation and declining performance over four consecutive years, questioning the clarity of its management and R&D strategies [9]. - The company's management has outlined a strategy focused on innovation, integration, and market adaptation, but the lack of tangible results raises skepticism about its effectiveness [10].

Core Viewpoint - Zhaoli Pharmaceutical (300181.SZ) has demonstrated strong profitability with a cumulative return of 154.14% over three years, despite a generally lackluster performance in the traditional Chinese medicine sector [1] Financial Performance - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders increased from 25.59 million yuan in 2019 to 508 million yuan in 2024 [1] - The gross profit margin for Zhaoli Pharmaceutical has decreased from 71.43% in 2021 to 60.95% currently, a decline of approximately 10 percentage points [7] Key Products - Zhaoli Pharmaceutical specializes in traditional Chinese medicine products, with its flagship product, Wuling Capsule, generating 1.438 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, accounting for 55.79% of total revenue [3] - Wuling Capsule, used for treating insomnia, is a 1 billion yuan-level product with a stable gross profit margin exceeding 80% [4][5] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Wuling Capsule benefits from unique barriers to entry, including proprietary technology and its inclusion in the National Essential Medicines List, which limits competition and maintains pricing power [3][5] - The company has successfully increased the packaging size of Wuling Capsule to enhance sales and reduce marginal costs [5] Strategic Focus - Zhaoli Pharmaceutical is committed to its core business of traditional Chinese medicine while expanding into the rapidly growing market for traditional Chinese medicine pieces and granules [11] - The company aims to develop its Bailing series products into a 1 billion yuan-level product by 2025, despite facing competition from established players [12] Sales Channels and Growth Strategy - The company is shifting its sales strategy from primarily hospital sales to a more consumer-oriented approach, targeting online retail and chain pharmacies to tap into the broader health market [13]