FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) 表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 公司名稱： 貝殼控股有限公司 呈交日期： 2024年11月27日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | 股份類別 A | | 於香港聯交所上市 | 是 | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02423 | 說明 | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）變動 | | 庫存股份變動 | | | | | 事件 | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數 目 | 佔有關事件前的現有已發 行股份 ...

FF305 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | 股份類別 A | | 於香港聯交所上市 | 是 | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02423 | 說明 | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）變動 | | 庫存股份變動 | | | | | 事件 | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數 目 | 佔有關事件前的現有已發 行股份（不包括庫存股 份）數目百分比 (註3) | 庫存股份數目 | 每股發行/出售價 (註4) | 已發行股份總數 | | 於下列日期開始時的結存(註1) | 2024年11月7日 | 3,479,6 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [4][51]. Core Views - The company's Q3 revenue and profit showed a sequential decline, but a significant recovery is expected in Q4 due to policy influences [2][35]. - The new housing business continues to outperform the market, with a GTV market share increase and a record high monetization rate [2][23]. - The existing housing business performance aligns with real estate policy trends, with expectations for a notable rebound in Q4 [2][9]. Revenue and Profit Summary - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a GTV of 736.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 12%. Revenue was 22.6 billion yuan, up 27% year-on-year but down 3% quarter-on-quarter [2][7]. - Adjusted net profit for Q3 2024 was 1.8 billion yuan, down 17% year-on-year and 34% quarter-on-quarter, with an adjusted net profit margin of 7.9% [2][7]. Business Segment Performance - The existing housing business had a GTV of 477.8 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 16%. Revenue was 6.2 billion yuan, down 1% year-on-year and 15% quarter-on-quarter [2][9]. - The new housing business achieved a GTV of 227.6 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 18% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3%, with a market share of 12.0% [2][23]. - The new business segment showed strong growth, with home decoration and rental services contributing significantly to revenue [2][35]. Financial Forecasts - The company expects adjusted net profits of 9 billion yuan and 9.2 billion yuan for 2024 and 2025, respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of 2.50 yuan and 2.54 yuan [2][35]. - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected at 18.3 for 2024 and 18.0 for 2025 [2][35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [4][51]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 revenue and profit showed a sequential decline, but a significant recovery is expected in Q4. The adjusted net profit for Q3 2024 was 1.8 billion yuan, down 17% year-on-year and 34% quarter-on-quarter [2][4][35]. - The new housing business continues to outperform the market, with a GTV of 227.6 billion yuan in Q3 2024, representing an 18% year-on-year increase [2][23]. - The company’s new track business is maintaining good growth momentum, with home decoration and rental services showing significant revenue increases [2][35]. Revenue and Profit Summary - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a GTV of 736.8 billion yuan, a 12% increase year-on-year but a 12% decrease quarter-on-quarter. Revenue was 22.6 billion yuan, up 27% year-on-year but down 3% quarter-on-quarter [2][7]. - The adjusted net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 7.9%, with a gross margin of 23%, both showing a decline compared to previous periods [2][7]. Business Segment Performance - The existing housing business GTV was 477.8 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a 9% year-on-year increase but a 16% decrease quarter-on-quarter. Revenue from this segment was 6.2 billion yuan, down 1% year-on-year and 15% quarter-on-quarter [2][9]. - The new housing business's GTV market share increased to 12.0%, up 1.7 percentage points from Q2 2024, with a revenue of 7.7 billion yuan, reflecting a 31% year-on-year growth [2][23]. - The new track business accounted for 4% of GTV and 38% of revenue, with home decoration revenue growing by 33% year-on-year and rental service revenue increasing by 118% year-on-year [2][35]. Financial Forecasts - The report forecasts adjusted net profits of 9 billion yuan for 2024 and 9.2 billion yuan for 2025, with corresponding earnings per share of 2.50 yuan and 2.54 yuan, leading to a PE ratio of 18.3 and 18.0 respectively [2][4][35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, citing its strong market position and expected growth in adjusted net profit for 2024/2025/2026 [3][6] Core Views - The company benefits from favorable real estate policies, which are expected to drive market recovery and enhance its market share [6] - The company's new home GTV monetization rate reached a historical high in 2024Q3, with a GTV of 227.6 billion yuan, up 18.5% YoY, outperforming the industry [5] - The company's rental service business revenue grew 118% YoY in 2024Q3, driven by the rapid expansion of its "Worry-Free Rent" managed properties [6] - The company has consistently delivered on its shareholder return commitments, with $5.8 billion used for share repurchases in the first three quarters of 2024 [6] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2024Q3 was 22.6 billion yuan, up 26.8% YoY, with a gross margin of 22.7%, down 5.2 percentage points QoQ due to increased fixed costs [7] - Adjusted net profit for 2024Q3 was 1.78 billion yuan, down 17.5% YoY, but exceeded Bloomberg consensus expectations [7] - The company's existing home GTV in 2024Q3 was 477.8 billion yuan, up 8.8% YoY, with expectations of significant YoY and QoQ growth in Q4 due to policy tailwinds [7] Business Segments - The home decoration and furnishing segment saw a GTV of 4.1 billion yuan in 2024Q3, up 24.6% YoY, with a contribution margin increase of 2.1 percentage points to 31% [9] - The rental service business contributed a profit margin of 4.4% in 2024Q3, down 1.4 percentage points QoQ due to seasonal cost increases [6] Market Data - The company's closing price was $19.98 per ADS, with a total market capitalization of $24.1 billion and total assets of 1,227.96 billion yuan as of November 21, 2024 [1] - The company's net assets were 707.75 billion yuan, with a net asset per share of 19.5 yuan [1]

Financial Performance - Gross transaction value (GTV) reached RMB736.8 billion (US$105.0 billion), a 12.5% year-over-year increase[4] - Net revenues increased by 26.8% to RMB22.6 billion (US$3.2 billion) compared to RMB17.8 billion in the same period of 2023[5][15] - Net income was RMB1,168 million (US$167 million), with adjusted net income at RMB1,782 million (US$254 million)[6] - Total net revenues for the three months ended September 30, 2024, increased to RMB 22,584,647, representing a 27.5% growth compared to RMB 17,810,705 for the same period in 2023[68] - Net income attributable to KE Holdings Inc. for the three months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 1,171,073, compared to RMB 1,158,042 for the same period in 2023, reflecting a 1.1% increase[70] - The company reported a total comprehensive income of RMB 1,049,224 for the three months ended September 30, 2024, up from RMB 927,825 in the same quarter of 2023[70] - The net income for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 3,500,932, representing a decrease of 32.9% from RMB 5,219,541 in the same period of 2023[75] Revenue Breakdown - Net revenues from home renovation and furnishing grew by 32.6% to RMB4.2 billion (US$0.6 billion) year-over-year[21] - Net revenues from home rental services surged by 118.4% to RMB3.9 billion (US$0.6 billion) compared to RMB1.8 billion in the same period of 2023[22] - Contribution from new home transaction services net revenues increased to RMB 7,726,316 for the three months ended September 30, 2024, compared to RMB 5,901,966 in the same period of 2023, representing a growth of approximately 30.9%[84] - Home renovation and furnishing net revenues for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, reached RMB 10,662,113, up from RMB 7,209,569 in the same period of 2023, indicating a growth of about 48.5%[84] - Home rental services net revenues for the three months ended September 30, 2024, were RMB 3,941,234, significantly higher than RMB 1,804,374 for the same period in 2023, reflecting an increase of approximately 118.5%[84] - Total contribution from existing home transaction services for the three months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 2,549,227, down from RMB 3,069,848 in the same period of 2023, indicating a decline of approximately 17%[84] Expenses and Costs - Total cost of revenues increased by 35.0% to RMB17.4 billion (US$2.5 billion) in Q3 2024[23] - Gross profit increased by 5.2% to RMB5.1 billion (US$0.7 billion) in Q3 2024, with a gross margin of 22.7%, down from 27.4% in Q3 2023[30] - Total operating expenses rose by 11.0% to RMB4.4 billion (US$0.6 billion) in Q3 2024, with sales and marketing expenses increasing by 18.6% to RMB1.9 billion (US$0.3 billion)[32][33] - Research and development expenses increased by 21.5% to RMB573 million (US$82 million) in Q3 2024, driven by higher headcount and technical service costs[34] - Operating expenses for the three months ended September 30, 2024, totaled RMB 4,407,769, an increase from RMB 3,969,722 in the same period last year[68] Cash and Assets - As of September 30, 2024, the combined balance of cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash, and short-term investments was RMB59.5 billion (US$8.5 billion)[45] - Cash and cash equivalents were reported at RMB 9,576,948 as of September 30, 2024, a decrease from RMB 19,634,716 as of December 31, 2023[64] - Short-term investments increased significantly to RMB 43,654,035 as of September 30, 2024, up from RMB 34,257,958 as of December 31, 2023, representing a growth of approximately 27%[64] - The company reported a net decrease in cash and cash equivalents of RMB 1,706,229 for the three months ended September 30, 2024[82] Shareholder Information - The company allocated approximately US$200 million to share repurchases in Q3 2024[14] - The company has repurchased approximately 102.2 million ADSs (representing approximately 306.5 million Class A ordinary shares) for a total consideration of approximately US$1,493.4 million under its share repurchase program[46] - Basic and diluted net income per ADS attributable to KE Holdings Inc.'s ordinary shareholders were RMB1.04 (US$0.15) and RMB1.00 (US$0.14) in Q3 2024, compared to RMB0.99 and RMB0.97 in Q3 2023[41] - The weighted average number of ADS used in computing net income per ADS, diluted, for the three months ended September 30, 2024, was 1,167,050,588[72] Liabilities and Equity - Current liabilities increased to RMB 43,147,206 as of September 30, 2024, compared to RMB 39,523,983 as of December 31, 2023, reflecting a growth of approximately 6.5%[65] - Total shareholders' equity decreased to RMB 70,893,663 as of September 30, 2024, down from RMB 72,201,105 as of December 31, 2023, indicating a decline of about 1.8%[66] - Total non-current liabilities increased to RMB 8,754,843 as of September 30, 2024, from RMB 8,606,843 as of December 31, 2023, marking an increase of approximately 1.7%[65] - The company’s accumulated deficit improved to RMB (2,178,008) as of September 30, 2024, from RMB (5,672,916) as of December 31, 2023, showing a significant reduction in losses[66]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2024-2026 at 19.0x, 17.9x, and 15.5x respectively [2]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 22.585 billion yuan for Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 26.8%, while net profit decreased by 0.2% to 1.168 billion yuan. Adjusted net profit fell by 17.5% to 1.782 billion yuan [1]. - The increase in revenue was accompanied by a higher rise in operating costs, which increased by 35.0% year-on-year, leading to a decline in gross margin by 4.7 percentage points to 22.7% [1]. - The company experienced growth in both new and existing home transactions, with existing home gross transaction value (GTV) at 477.8 billion yuan, up 8.8% year-on-year, and new home GTV at 227.6 billion yuan, up 18.4% year-on-year [1]. - The company's "one body, three wings" strategy is showing positive results, with home decoration, rental housing, and emerging businesses contributing to a total revenue of 8.64 billion yuan, a 54.3% increase year-on-year, accounting for 38.3% of total revenue [1]. - The company has been actively repurchasing shares, spending approximately 5.8 billion USD in 2024, which represents 3.32% of the total shares outstanding at the beginning of the period [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company’s projected Non-GAAP net profits are adjusted to 9.01 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 8.0%, with subsequent years showing growth of 6.3% and 15.4% for 2025 and 2026 respectively [2]. - The revenue forecast for 2024 is set at 91.12 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 17.16%, and is expected to reach 107.62 billion yuan in 2025 [5]. - The company’s diluted earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 2.486 yuan, with a return on equity (ROE) of 7.12% [5].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q2 2024, total GTV reached RMB 839 billion, up 7.5% year-over-year, while net revenues were RMB 23.4 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 19.9% [9][10] - Gross margin increased by 0.5 percentage points year-over-year to 27.9%, and GAAP net income reached RMB 1.9 billion, rising by 46.2% year-over-year [9][14] - Non-GAAP net income grew by 13.9% year-over-year to RMB 2.69 billion, exceeding market consensus [9][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue from existing home transactions reached RMB 7.3 billion, up 14.3% year-over-year, with PTV at RMB 570.7 billion, increasing 25% year-over-year [10][11] - New home GTV reached RMB 235.3 billion, growing by 20.2% year-over-year and 55% quarter-over-quarter, despite a market downturn [10][11] - Revenue from home renovation and furnishings grew by 85.3% year-over-year, while home rental services revenue surged by 167.1% year-over-year [12][13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The existing home market saw a notable recovery, with transaction volumes in first-tier cities increasing significantly, particularly in June [19][20] - The proportion of national GTV from existing home transactions increased from around 40% last year to approximately 44% in the first half of this year [18][19] - The new home market's year-over-year sales decline narrowed month by month in Q2, but overall performance remained subdued [21][22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on enhancing operational capabilities, expanding store and agent networks, and improving customer acquisition strategies [4][5] - Emphasis is placed on community-based business models to better meet customer needs and differentiate from traditional residential industry practices [6][7] - The company aims to balance scale, quality, and efficiency while investing in infrastructure and technology to support growth [15][16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that supportive policies have contributed to market recovery, particularly in first-tier cities, and expressed optimism about the second half of the year [9][18] - The company anticipates challenges in the new home market but remains committed to improving operational efficiency and service quality [21][22] - Management highlighted the importance of adapting to changing customer needs and market dynamics to sustain growth [24][25] Other Important Information - The company has expanded its share repurchase program from US$2 billion to US$3 billion, reflecting a commitment to returning value to shareholders [15][16] - The number of active stores increased by over 2,400, or 6%, and the number of active agents rose by 40,000, indicating growth in operational capacity [3][4] Q&A Session Summary Question: Changes in the real estate market post-policy implementation - Management noted steady month-by-month improvement in the housing market, particularly in existing home transactions, with significant recovery in first-tier cities [18][19] Question: Performance of new home business compared to the industry - The new home business significantly outperformed the industry, with a notable increase in contracted transaction volume and revenue, indicating strong operational capabilities [23][24]

Investment Rating - Maintains a **Buy** rating with a target price raised to **USD 23.3** (previously USD 21.5), reflecting a 15.2% upside from the current price of USD 20.23 [1][5] Core Views - **Revenue Growth**: Q3 2024 revenue increased by 27% YoY to RMB 22.6 billion, slightly below Bloomberg consensus and CICC estimates by 1.5% and 4.7%, respectively, due to weak existing home transaction (EHT) sentiment [1] - **Non-GAAP Net Income**: Q3 2024 non-GAAP net income was RMB 1.8 billion, with a gross margin of 7.9%, in line with expectations, driven by cost control measures [1] - **Market Share Expansion**: Continued market share gains in both existing home transactions (EHT) and new home transactions (NHT), along with successful new business expansion, support a positive outlook [1] - **Q4 2024 Outlook**: EHT and NHT gross transaction value (GTV) are expected to grow over 40% YoY, supported by strong performance in October and November, though additional expenses of RMB 1-1.5 billion may reduce Q4 non-GAAP net income to RMB 220 million [2] Business Performance - **EHT Performance**: EHT GTV grew 9% YoY but declined 17% QoQ due to slowing transaction sentiment post-June peak, with contribution margin dropping 7 percentage points to 41% due to increased fixed costs from agent expansion [2] - **NHT Performance**: NHT GTV grew 18.5% YoY, significantly outperforming the industry's 19% decline, driven by partnerships with state-owned developers [2] - **Policy Impact**: Policy Package 924 and subsequent measures have significantly boosted transaction sentiment, with better sustainability compared to previous policy supports [2] Financial Projections - **Revenue Growth**: FY2024E revenue is projected at RMB 91.0 billion, growing 17.1% YoY, with FY2025E and FY2026E revenues expected at RMB 107.7 billion (+18.3% YoY) and RMB 121.8 billion (+13.0% YoY), respectively [4] - **Non-GAAP Net Profit**: FY2024E non-GAAP net profit is estimated at RMB 8.1 billion, with FY2025E and FY2026E projections of RMB 9.4 billion (+16.7% YoY) and RMB 10.9 billion (+16.0% YoY), respectively [4] - **Valuation Metrics**: The target price implies a 2025E non-GAAP P/E of 21.4x, with core business valued at USD 22.3 per ADS and Shengdu at USD 0.9 per ADS [1][10] Corporate Social Responsibility - **Employee Welfare**: Plans to invest RMB 1.2 billion over the next 3-4 years in employee welfare, including transitioning to fixed salary structures and providing social insurance for brokers, enhancing long-term value [3] Valuation Summary - **DCF Valuation**: The discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation for the core business is RMB 193.7 billion, with a total enterprise value of RMB 201.7 billion, translating to a valuation of USD 23.3 per ADS [9][10] - **SOTP Valuation**: The sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation includes RMB 193.7 billion for the core business and RMB 8.0 billion for Shengdu, resulting in a total valuation of RMB 201.7 billion (USD 28.0 billion) [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Ke Holdings (BEKE US) with a target price raised to US$23.30 from US$21.50, indicating a potential upside of 15.2% from the current price of US$20.23 [3]. Core Insights - Ke Holdings reported a revenue increase of 27% year-over-year (YoY) to RMB22.6 billion for Q3 2024, although this was slightly below consensus estimates due to mixed performance in existing home transactions [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from favorable policies in Q4 2024, with guidance indicating over 40% YoY growth in both existing and new home transaction volumes [1]. - The report highlights the company's proactive expansion strategy, which has led to an increase in fixed costs but is expected to enhance long-term value through improved employee compensation and social responsibility initiatives [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for FY24E is projected at RMB91.0 billion, with a YoY growth of 17.1%, and net profit is expected to be RMB5.19 billion [2]. - Non-GAAP net profit for Q3 2024 was RMB1.8 billion, with a margin of 7.9%, aligning with estimates [1]. - The company anticipates a non-GAAP net profit of RMB2.2 billion for Q4 2024, reflecting a margin of 7.7% [1]. Business Segment Performance - Existing home transaction (EHT) gross transaction value (GTV) rose 9% YoY but fell 17% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ), while new home transaction (NHT) GTV increased by 18.5% YoY, outperforming the industry [1]. - The report notes a divergence in performance between EHT and NHT businesses, with EHT facing challenges due to low transaction sentiment [1]. Future Outlook - The report projects continued growth in both EHT and NHT segments, driven by recent policy support and market share gains [1]. - The company plans to invest RMB1.2 billion over the next 3-4 years in staff welfare and social insurance for agents, which is expected to enhance its long-term value [1].