Key Points - The top three companies with net inflows from southbound funds are Xiaomi Group-W (01810) with 1.665 billion, Tencent Holdings (00700) with 830 million, and Alibaba-W (09988) with 747 million [1] - The companies with the highest net outflows are Pop Mart (09992) with -354 million, China Life (02628) with -351 million, and Kingsoft Cloud (03896) with -300 million [1] - In terms of net inflow ratio, Qin Port Co. (03369) leads with 78.68%, followed by Reshaping Energy (02570) with 76.94%, and Cang Port Railway (02169) with 65.01% [1] - The companies with the highest net outflow ratios include Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (03618) at -61.37%, Bank of China Aviation Leasing (02588) at -53.31%, and Swire Properties (01972) at -45.99% [1] Net Inflow Rankings - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) had a net inflow of 1.665 billion, representing a 12.37% increase [2] - Tencent Holdings (00700) saw a net inflow of 830 million, with an 8.94% increase [2] - Alibaba-W (09988) recorded a net inflow of 747 million, reflecting a 10.60% increase [2] - The highest net inflow was observed in CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (01093) with 654 million and a 21.81% increase [2] Net Outflow Rankings - Pop Mart (09992) experienced a net outflow of -354 million, with a -10.47% decrease [2] - China Life (02628) had a net outflow of -351 million, reflecting a -11.90% decrease [2] - Kingsoft Cloud (03896) recorded a net outflow of -300 million, with a -24.18% decrease [2] - Meituan-W (03690) also saw a significant outflow of -291 million, representing a -5.32% decrease [2] Net Inflow Ratio Rankings - Qin Port Co. (03369) leads with a net inflow ratio of 78.68% and a net inflow of 340,000 [3] - Reshaping Energy (02570) follows with a net inflow ratio of 76.94% and a net inflow of 10.53 million [3] - Cang Port Railway (02169) has a net inflow ratio of 65.01% with a net inflow of 4.3967 million [3] - Other notable companies include Meizhong Jiahe (02453) with a 61.71% net inflow ratio [3] Net Outflow Ratio Rankings - Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (03618) has the highest net outflow ratio at -61.37% with a net outflow of -1.04 billion [3] - Bank of China Aviation Leasing (02588) follows with a net outflow ratio of -53.31% and a net outflow of -15.3728 million [3] - Swire Properties (01972) has a net outflow ratio of -45.99% with a net outflow of -29.4662 million [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The express delivery sector shows significant divergence in June data, with a focus on the industry's anti-involution process [3] - The express logistics market is expanding, supported by the national strategy to boost domestic demand, with a year-on-year growth of 15.8% in express delivery volume in June 2025 [5] - The performance of major express companies varies, with SF Express maintaining a business volume growth rate of over 30%, while other companies like YTO Express and Yunda Express show slower growth [4][5] Summary by Sections Express Logistics - In June 2025, the total express delivery volume reached 16.87 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, with total revenue of 126.32 billion yuan, up 9.0% [5][24] - Major express companies' performance in June: YTO Express (2.627 billion pieces, +19.34%), Yunda Express (2.173 billion pieces, +7.41%), SF Express (1.460 billion pieces, +31.77%) [4][28] - The market share for these companies is 15.6% for YTO, 12.9% for both Yunda and Shentong, and 8.7% for SF Express [4] Air Transportation - The air travel sector is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 4.4% in passenger transport volume in June 2025 [52] - Major airlines are projected to improve their performance in Q2 2025 due to better supply-demand dynamics and lower oil prices [8] Shipping and Ports - The shipping sector is anticipated to benefit from OPEC+ production increases and a favorable economic environment, with a focus on crude oil transportation [16] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 27.8% week-on-week, indicating a recovery in the bulk shipping market [11][68] - Container throughput at Chinese ports showed a slight increase in cargo volume but a decrease in container throughput [81] Road and Rail - In June 2025, road freight volume increased by 2.86% year-on-year, while rail freight volume rose by 7.36% [45] - National logistics operations are running smoothly, with a slight increase in freight truck traffic [14] Supply Chain Logistics - Companies like Shenzhen International and Debon Logistics are expected to benefit from strategic transformations and improved profitability [15]

Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market indices collectively rebounded, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.33%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increasing by 1.51%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index gaining 1.65% [1] - The SaaS sector saw significant gains, with companies like Huilyang Technology rising by 15.56%, Yika by 10.11%, and Kingdee International by 7.27% [1] - The stablecoin concept also surged, highlighted by Yaocai Securities rising by 16.93% and Huajian Medical increasing by 20.41% following the U.S. House of Representatives passing a bill to establish a legal framework for stablecoins [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - Gold and non-ferrous metal stocks experienced a broad increase, with Lingbao Gold rising by 6.24% and China Molybdenum by 3.96% as spot gold prices rose above $3340 per ounce [2] - Major financial sectors, including Chinese brokerage and insurance stocks, also saw gains, with Xingsheng International up by 7.41% and China Life by 5.13% [2] Group 3: Automotive and Related Sectors - The automotive sector, including lithium battery and Tesla-related stocks, showed strong performance, with Tianqi Lithium rising by 5.82% and NIO increasing by 4.62% [3] - Other consumer sectors such as film, tobacco, and food stocks also performed well, with companies like Simoer International rising by 4.99% [3] Group 4: Declining Sectors - Sectors such as cosmetics, aviation, and luxury goods saw declines, with China Eastern Airlines dropping by 2.72% [3] - Notably, Chuangmeng Tiandi experienced a significant drop of 30.12%, despite expectations of turning a profit in the first half of the year [3]

Group 1 - BOC Aviation (BOCA) delivered 13 aircraft in 2Q25, maintaining flat year-over-year (YoY) and increasing two quarter-over-quarter (QoQ), with a total of 24 aircraft delivered in 1H25, which is an increase of six YoY and four half-over-half (HoH) [1] - The firm’s self-owned fleet grew to 441 aircraft by the end of 1H25, up 12 YoY and six HoH, while the order book increased to 351, reflecting a growth of 132 YoY and 119 HoH [1] - Aircraft lease rates are trending upward, with the Airbus A320NEO lease rate rising approximately 6% YoY as of February 2025, supporting high-priced contract execution and potentially lifting gross lease rental yields [2] Group 2 - The firm sold 14 self-owned aircraft in 2Q25, an increase of three YoY and 10 QoQ, with a total of 18 self-owned aircraft sold in 1H25, also up three YoY [3] - The market value of the firm’s self-owned fleet exceeded book value by 15% as of the end of 2024, indicating that steady aircraft disposals could improve fleet quality and realize asset premiums [3] Group 3 - The firm has a higher exposure to floating-rate liabilities (27% at end-2024), making it more sensitive to interest rate cuts compared to leasing peers, with historical share price movements closely tied to US Treasury yields and interest rate cut expectations [5] - In previous periods of rising interest rate cut expectations, the firm’s share price increased by 18.7% from its trough to peak in November 2023 and climbed 26.2% by July 2024, suggesting potential short-term catalysts for share price [5] Group 4 - Improved aircraft deliveries are expected to drive up gross lease rental yields, while overseas interest rate cuts may lower financing costs, leading to a steady recovery in the firm’s return on equity (ROE) [6] - The firm’s historical average valuation has shown a strong correlation with its ROE, indicating that ROE expansion could provide room for a steady rise in valuation [6]

Core Viewpoint - 中银航空租赁（BOCA） reported a slight increase in aircraft deliveries in 2Q25, with a total of 13 aircraft delivered compared to 11 in 1Q25, while the total number of owned aircraft decreased to 441 due to the sale of 14 aircraft [1][2] Group 1: Operational Performance - In 2Q25, BOCA executed 75 transactions, including the delivery of 13 aircraft and the sale of 14 aircraft, resulting in a net decrease of 1 owned aircraft [2] - The company maintains a strong order book with 351 aircraft on order, supporting long-term growth despite a decrease in owned aircraft [2] - The utilization rate of the fleet remains stable at 100%, with an average remaining lease term of 7.9 years [2] Group 2: Market Conditions - The recovery of upstream aircraft manufacturers' production capacity is a positive signal, with Boeing and Airbus delivering a total of 320 aircraft in 2Q25, up from 266 in 1Q25 [1] - Despite improvements in aircraft supply, demand for air travel continues to rise, with global revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) increasing by 5% year-on-year in May, indicating ongoing pressure on aircraft availability and rental rates [2] Group 3: Financial Outlook - The company expects a core ROE of 10.6% for 2025, roughly in line with 10.5% in 2024, reflecting stable operational performance [1][2] - Profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are maintained at USD 700 million, USD 790 million, and USD 800 million respectively, with a target price of HKD 82 based on a price-to-book ratio of 1.06x for 2025 [3]

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for China Aircraft Leasing Group (02588.HK) with a target price of HKD 82, citing improved upstream capacity and stable operational data as positive indicators for leasing rates and return on equity (ROE) [1] Financial Performance - The company recently disclosed its operational data for Q2 2025, showing a quarter-on-quarter improvement in upstream capacity [1] - It is expected that the core ROE for 2025 will remain roughly the same as in 2024 [1] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is estimated at USD 700 million, USD 790 million, and USD 800 million respectively [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The supply of aircraft is slightly improving, with Boeing and Airbus delivering a total of 320 aircraft in 2Q25, up from 266 in 1Q25. The company delivered 13 aircraft in 2Q25, an increase from 11 in 1Q25, but sold 14 aircraft, resulting in a decrease in owned aircraft to 441 [1][2][3] - The company expects a core ROE of 10.6% for 2025, roughly in line with 10.5% in 2024, indicating stable performance despite potential challenges in the debt market due to fluctuating U.S. Treasury rates [1][4] Summary by Sections Supply Chain Improvement - The report highlights that the recovery of aircraft manufacturers' capacity is crucial for the company's performance. The increase in aircraft deliveries is expected to positively impact leasing rates and ROE if the trend continues [2] Fleet Management - In 2Q25, the company executed 75 transactions, including the delivery of 13 aircraft and the sale of 14 aircraft, leading to a net decrease in owned aircraft. The average age of sold aircraft was 10.4 years, which is higher than the overall fleet average of 5 years. The company maintains a strong order book with 351 aircraft on order [3] Financial Projections - The company forecasts a net profit of USD 702.62 million for 2025, with a slight decrease from 2024. The target price is set at HKD 82, based on a 1.06x 2025E PB ratio [5][10]

Group 1 - The upcoming summer peak season for civil aviation in 2025 is prompting multiple airlines to launch new routes and explore diversified markets, indicating a focus on enhancing market consumption potential [1] - According to Minsheng Securities, domestic airline prices have improved since the beginning of the year, with off-season demand showing support, and strong performance in holiday air traffic likely to carry over into the summer peak season [1] - Airbus's 2024 GMF report predicts a long-term global air passenger traffic compound annual growth rate of 3.6%, with significant growth in per capita flight frequency, particularly in China, where it is expected to rise from 0.6 times in 2024 to 1.8 times by 2044 [1] Group 2 - Cathay Haitong Securities reports a slight increase in fleet size in the first half of 2025, with limited room for improvement in fleet turnover during the summer peak, and domestic operational investment expected to show minimal growth [2] - The demand for family travel during the summer peak is anticipated to remain strong, with optimistic supply-demand expectations, and a slight adjustment in ticket prices by some airlines to ensure good pre-sale progress for the summer season [2] - With a low base for ticket prices in the summer of 2024, a year-on-year increase in ticket prices for the summer of 2025 is expected, potentially leading to record profits for airlines [2] Group 3 - The aviation sector is entering a low growth supply era, with demand showing resilience since April, and the next two years expected to see continued improvement in supply-demand dynamics [2] - The aviation market is steadily approaching the peak season, with limited growth in supply and a natural increase in passenger volume, supporting the logic of rising airline revenues if domestic ticket prices recover [2] - Shenwan Hongyuan Securities continues to recommend focusing on the aviation sector, highlighting strong certainty in supply slowdown and elastic demand, which, combined with favorable oil and exchange rate conditions, could significantly enhance airline performance [2] Group 4 - Related Hong Kong stocks in the aviation sector include China Southern Airlines (600029)(01055), Air China (601111)(00753), China Eastern Airlines (00670), Cathay Pacific Airways (00293), BOC Aviation (02588), and China Civil Aviation Information Network (00696) [3]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.33%, gaining 79 points to reach 24,261 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.33% [1] - Insurance funds continue to increase holdings in Chinese bank stocks, with institutions indicating significant valuation recovery potential for Hong Kong bank stocks [1] - Bank of Communications (01988) rose by 3.47%, China Everbright Bank (06818) increased by 1.86%, and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (01398) gained 1.68% [1] - Three-Synch Pharmaceutical (01530) surged over 11% to a new high after reaching a significant licensing agreement with Pfizer, with strong ASCO data performance [1] - Innovent Biologics (01801) rose over 3.42%, with a year-to-date increase of over 120%, as Morgan Stanley anticipates further clinical catalysts to boost stock performance [1] - InnoCare Pharma-B (09606) increased by 13%, recently disclosing clinical data for DB-1310, attracting attention from international pharmaceutical giants [1] - China Rare Earth (00769) surged over 17%, following a 60% increase in trading volume, with positive signals for rare earth exports [1] - Pop Mart International (09992) rose by 2.47%, continuing to set historical highs, with its Labubu brand gaining global popularity [1] - Airline stocks continued their recent upward trend, benefiting from falling oil prices and the appreciation of the Renminbi, with institutions optimistic about airline profitability [1] - Air China (00753) rose by 4.5%, China Eastern Airlines (00670) increased by 4.42%, China Southern Airlines (01055) gained 4.18%, and BOC Aviation (02588) rose by 3.42% [1] Group 2 - Zhi Zi Cheng Technology (09911) rose over 7%, approaching historical highs, as the company plans to establish its global headquarters in Hong Kong, with institutions optimistic about future profit margin improvement [2] - Dekang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry (02419) increased by 4.97% to a new high, with the company reporting sales of 869,400 pigs in May, drawing market attention to industry capacity regulation progress [2] - Shide Global (00487) surged nearly 140%, as Australia’s Crown Resorts expressed interest in acquiring the property where the Sixteen Piers Casino is located [2]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong aviation stocks experienced a volatile upward trend, with China Eastern Airlines (00670.HK) rising over 4% [1] - China Southern Airlines (01055.HK) increased by more than 3.5% [1] - BOC Aviation (02588.HK) saw a nearly 3% rise [1] - Air China (00753.HK) gained 1.7% [1]