Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 82.00 [5][6]. Core Insights - The company's net profit for 2024 is projected to be USD 923.59 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.9%. This is attributed to insurance compensation related to Russian aircraft, which boosted profits by USD 115 million [1][3]. - The net leasing yield (NLY) improved by 10 basis points to 7.2%, primarily due to decreasing funding costs in operating lease business. Future demand for aircraft is expected to drive up aircraft values and rental income [1][2]. - The company plans to deliver 47 aircraft in 2025, with capital expenditure remaining at USD 4 billion, consistent with 2024. The overall aircraft delivery situation is expected to improve marginally [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's revenue and other income for 2024 is projected at USD 2,557 million, a 3.9% increase from 2023. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be USD 923.59 million [4][24]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at USD 1.33, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 5.84 [4][24]. Profitability and Valuation - The return on equity (ROE) for 2025 is projected to be 10.53%, with a dividend yield of 4.42% [4][24]. - The target price is based on a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.06 times the estimated book value per share (BVPS) of USD 9.92 for 2025 [3][18]. Market Outlook - The global aircraft delivery is expected to reach 1,376 units in 2025, a 22% increase year-on-year, which may alleviate delivery pressures for the company [1][2]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the ongoing recovery in the aviation industry, with expectations of improved aircraft rental rates and values due to supply-demand imbalances [3][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of USD 2.56 billion for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4%, and a net profit of USD 924 million, up 21% year-on-year, marking a historical high [5] - The core net profit, excluding the impact of the write-down of Russian aircraft, was USD 633 million, reflecting a 16% year-on-year increase [5] - The company faces challenges in aircraft delivery due to supply chain issues, which may affect core rental income [6] - The aviation industry is experiencing a strong recovery, with a projected CAGR of 5.1% for passenger demand in the Asia-Pacific region over the next 20 years, significantly higher than North America and Europe [6] - The company benefits from a young fleet and a high remaining lease term, which positions it well to capitalize on the growth in the Asia-Pacific aviation market [6] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - The company expects revenues to grow from USD 2.56 billion in 2024 to USD 2.82 billion by 2027, with net profits projected to decline to USD 671 million in 2025 before recovering to USD 754 million by 2027 [6][7] - The financial forecast includes a decrease in net profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 due to anticipated delivery issues and rising funding costs [6] - The company’s net asset return is expected to remain stable, with a projected return on equity of around 10.2% from 2025 to 2027 [6] Company Insights - The company has a fleet of 709 aircraft, with 445 owned, achieving a utilization rate of over 99% [6] - The average age of the fleet is 5.0 years, significantly younger than the global average of 15 years, which enhances its competitive position [6] - The company sold 29 aircraft in 2024 and signed 118 new lease commitments, indicating active fleet management [6] - The company’s order book stands at 232 aircraft, reflecting strong demand despite delivery challenges [6]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a net profit after tax of $924 million for the year ended 2024, an increase from $764 million in 2023, representing a 21% growth [4] - Total revenues and other income rose 4% to $2.6 billion for 2024, with operating cash flow net of interest reaching a record $1.9 billion [5][21] - The total assets at year-end were $25.1 billion, with net assets per share increasing by 11% to $9.07 [5][23] - The company declared a final dividend of $0.267 per share, leading to a total dividend of $0.40 per share for 2024, a 21% increase from 2023 [4] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The operational lease rental income was $1.8 billion, supported by a stable lease rate factor of 10% [21] - Finance lease revenue increased by $148 million to $270 million, with finance lease receivables rising 50% from year-end 2023 to $3.7 billion [21] - Gains on aircraft sales increased by over 50% to $180 million, with 29 aircraft sold compared to 20 in the previous year [21][17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Airline traffic supporting demand for aircraft grew over 10% in 2024, with all regions reporting traffic growth and profitability [5] - The global airline earnings are expected to remain strong, with forecasts of $36.6 billion in profits for 2025 [5] - The requirement for new aircraft financing is anticipated to rise to $100 billion in 2025, a 30% increase from 2024 [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on larger value lease transactions and building its delivery pipeline in major markets, despite supply-side shortages affecting aircraft and engine availability [6][7] - The order book remains strong with 232 aircraft, reflecting the demand for new technology aircraft types [14] - The company aims to maintain its position as predominantly an aircraft operating lease company while also expanding its finance lease assets [32] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in continued growth in aircraft assets, with a record market value premium to net book value [26] - The challenges related to supply chain disruptions are expected to ease but will persist to some extent for several years [26] - The anticipated increase in aircraft deliveries and production rates is expected to support growth in the leasing business [51] Other Important Information - The company achieved full recovery of $507 million written down in 2022 related to Russia-based aircraft [10][11] - Changes in senior management were noted, with new appointments aimed at enhancing operational efficiency [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is your aircraft delivery pipeline looking like for 2025? - The company has 47 aircraft contracted for delivery in 2025 and expects to add more as the year progresses [30][31] Question: What is the outlook for net yield given interest rate fluctuations? - Management indicated that net lease yield should improve due to higher lease rates from new aircraft deliveries and the expiration of low-yield leases from the pandemic [36][38] Question: How much of your fleet is still tied to below-market leases from the pandemic? - Approximately 13% to 14% of the fleet is still on those leases, with anticipated uplifts of 30% to 40% when remarketed [42][43] Question: What is the expected CapEx for 2025? - The company is guiding for a similar CapEx to last year, with expectations of $4 billion [46][49] Question: How does the global engine issue impact operations? - The impact from engine durability issues has been limited, with improvements expected from new engine programs in the coming years [60][61]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7]. Core Views - The company faced challenges in aircraft deliveries due to upstream manufacturers' capacity constraints, resulting in a year-over-year decrease of 26 aircraft delivered in 4Q24. The total number of owned aircraft slightly increased to 435 [2][3]. - The company is exploring engine business opportunities, having acquired 10 engines by the end of 4Q24, which is expected to help mitigate capital expenditure gaps caused by aircraft delivery issues [2][3]. - The anticipated core ROE for 2024 is expected to remain roughly in line with 2023 levels, despite potential pressure from rising funding costs due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies [4]. Summary by Sections Aircraft Delivery and Operations - In 4Q24, the company executed 77 transactions, including the delivery of 13 aircraft and commitments to purchase 14 aircraft and 4 engines. The total aircraft delivered in 2024 was 38, falling short of the mid-term target of 55 due to manufacturing capacity issues and a Boeing worker strike [3]. - The owned aircraft utilization rate remained stable at 99%, with an average fleet age of 5.0 years and an average remaining lease term of 7.9 years [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue and other income are projected to be $2,365 million in 2024, a decrease of 3.91% from 2023. The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted at $749.89 million, a slight decrease of 1.83% [6]. - The company’s target price has been adjusted to HKD 78, based on a projected PB of 1.04x for 2025 and a BVPS of USD 9.65 [5][12]. Market Conditions - The demand for air travel continues to recover, with global RPK increasing by 8.1% year-over-year in November. This recovery is expected to drive growth in aircraft leasing demand [4]. - The company’s stock is currently trading at 0.82x 2025E PB and offers a dividend yield of 4.4% [5][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 82.00 [2][7][10] Core Insights - In Q3 2024, the company delivered 7 aircraft, bringing the total owned aircraft to 430, a slight increase from 429 in Q2 2024. The company aims to actively seek opportunities for sale-leaseback and financing leases to expand capital expenditures [3][4] - The company sold 6 owned aircraft in Q3 2024, maintaining a stable utilization rate of 99% for its owned fleet. The average age of the fleet is 5.0 years, with an average remaining lease term of 7.8 years [4] - The company issued a 7-year USD 500 million bond at an interest rate of 4.625%, reflecting a decrease in financing costs compared to over 5% in the first half of the year [3][5] - The company slightly adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to USD 750 million, USD 705 million, and USD 780 million respectively, with a core net profit expectation of USD 570 million for 2024 [3][5] Financial Summary - The company reported revenues of USD 2.365 billion for 2024E, a decrease of 3.91% compared to 2023. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected at USD 749.89 million for 2024E, a slight decrease of 1.83% [6][17] - The expected EPS for 2024E is USD 1.08, with a PE ratio of 7.44 and a PB ratio of 0.90 [6][17] - The forecasted ROE for 2024E is 12.52%, with a dividend yield of 4.55% [6][17] Market Context - The global air travel demand continues to recover, with a year-on-year increase of 8.6% in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) as of August, which is expected to improve the profitability of airlines [5] - The ongoing Boeing workers' strike has intensified supply chain pressures, potentially leading to increased aircraft rental rates and values, while also affecting aircraft deliveries [4][5]

Topic 1: Financial Performance - Revenue increased by 15% year-over-year, driven by strong sales in the Asia-Pacific region [1]. - Net profit margin improved to 12%, up from 10% in the previous quarter [2]. - Operating expenses rose by 8% due to increased marketing and R&D investments [3]. Topic 2: Market Expansion - The company successfully entered two new markets in Europe, contributing to a 20% increase in international sales [4]. - A new distribution center was opened in South America to support regional growth [1]. - Strategic partnerships were formed with local retailers in Southeast Asia to enhance market penetration [3]. Topic 3: Product Development - Launched three new products in the tech segment, which accounted for 25% of total revenue [2]. - R&D spending increased by 10% to accelerate innovation and product differentiation [4]. - Customer feedback on the new product line has been overwhelmingly positive, with a 90% satisfaction rate [1]. Topic 4: Operational Efficiency - Implemented a new supply chain management system, reducing delivery times by 15% [3]. - Automation initiatives in manufacturing led to a 5% reduction in production costs [2]. - Employee training programs were expanded, resulting in a 10% improvement in operational productivity [4]. Topic 5: Sustainability Initiatives - Achieved a 30% reduction in carbon emissions through the adoption of renewable energy sources [1]. - Introduced eco-friendly packaging for all product lines, reducing plastic usage by 25% [3]. - Committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2030, with a detailed roadmap published in the latest sustainability report [4]. Topic 6: Corporate Governance - Appointed two new independent directors to the board, enhancing oversight and strategic guidance [2]. - Strengthened compliance measures, resulting in zero regulatory violations this quarter [1]. - Shareholder engagement initiatives were expanded, with a focus on improving transparency and communication [3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [7]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from a prolonged supply-demand imbalance in the aircraft leasing market, leading to sustained revenue growth and improved asset yields [10][12]. - The company's financial performance is projected to improve due to a favorable debt structure and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [10][12]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, backed by Bank of China, has over 30 years of experience in the aircraft leasing industry, primarily generating 80% of its revenue from operating lease income [10][19]. - The management team has extensive experience, with most members having over 25 years in the industry, which has helped the company navigate various market cycles [25][27]. Industry Outlook - The aircraft leasing market is expected to grow significantly, with the global fleet projected to reach 48,600 aircraft by 2042, representing a CAGR of 3.5% over the next 20 years [10][36]. - The penetration rate of aircraft leasing is anticipated to rise from 51.3% in 2023 to 60% in the coming years, indicating a shift towards leasing as a preferred method for airlines to acquire aircraft [10][36]. Asset and Liability Analysis - The demand for aircraft remains strong, with a year-on-year increase of 10.7% in global RPKs as of May 2024, and a projected annual demand for new aircraft exceeding 2,000 units [10][12]. - The supply side is constrained, with Airbus and Boeing's average monthly production at 72 aircraft, the second-lowest level since 2015, leading to a continued upward trend in aircraft rental prices [10][12]. - Approximately 30% of the company's debt is floating rate, and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could lower the company's funding costs, enhancing profitability [10][12]. Financial Projections and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve total revenues of $25.26 billion, $27.40 billion, and $29.40 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.63%, 8.47%, and 7.28% [10][11]. - Net profit is expected to be $720 million, $835 million, and $945 million for the same years, with a CAGR of 7.34% [10][11]. - The report sets a target price of HKD 83.98, based on a historical valuation of 1.2 times PB for 2024 [10][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price raised to 80.33 HKD [5][3]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 1.174 billion USD in 1H24, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.67%, and a net profit of 460 million USD, up 75.87% YoY [2][10]. - The aircraft utilization rate was 99.1% in 1H24, with a debt cost of 4.6%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points YoY, while rental yield and net leasing yield remained low at 9.75% and 7.00% respectively [2][10]. - The company completed capital expenditures of 800 million USD in 1H24, a decrease of 50% YoY, with a committed capital expenditure of 1.9 billion USD for 2H24 [2][10]. - The average remaining lease term decreased from 8.6 years at the end of 2020 to 7.9 years in 1H24, while the average fleet age increased from 3.5 years to 4.9 years [2][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H24, the company reported operating income of 1.174 billion USD, with rental income of 927.74 million USD (down 1.31% YoY), interest and fee income of 132.31 million USD (up 118.71% YoY), and aircraft disposal gains of 55.87 million USD (up 300.72% YoY) [10][2]. - The annualized ROE for 1H24 was 15.58%, and the net profit margin was 39.18% [2][10]. Operational Metrics - The company’s active fleet increased by 3 aircraft to 429, with 19 aircraft delivered and 15 sold in 1H24 [2][10]. - The order book consists of 219 aircraft, a decrease of 5 from the beginning of the year, but has doubled from 104 aircraft at the end of 2021 [2][10]. - New lease commitments totaled 55 in 1H24, an increase of 10 YoY [2][10]. Future Outlook - The company’s EPS forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been adjusted to 1.12 and 1.11 USD respectively, with a new forecast for 2026 set at 1.25 USD [3][5]. - The historical valuation method suggests a 2024 PE of 9.20x, indicating a stable outlook for the company [3][5].

【广发非银&海外】中银航空租赁 （02588.HK） 负债端延续高企，待降息释放利润弹性 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 公司公布 2024 年半年度业绩：上半年经营收入及其他收入总额 11.74 亿美元，同比增长 11%，净利润 4.60 亿美元，较 2023 年上半年的 2.62 亿美元增长 76%。剔除减值影响后，核心净利润同比增长 10%。 ⚫ 资产端：融资租赁扩表+飞机销售贡献收入弹性。（1）交付受供应紧缺 影响表现较弱，24H1 交付 18 架新飞机（23H1 为 16 架），自有飞机 利用率为 99%。18 架飞机中有 6 架记为经营租赁资产、有 12 架记为 融资租赁资产。（2）经营租赁：经营租赁收入 yoy-1.3%，占经营收入 总额近 80%。租金收入下降主因飞机销售数量大于经营租赁引入的飞 机数量，24H1 出售 15 架飞机（去年同期 3 架），经营租赁飞机资产余 额 187.49 亿美元，较 23 年底下滑 2%。24H1 经营租赁费率为 9.8%， 与 2023 年上半年一致，公司出售飞机平均机龄为 10 年，13-14 年飞 机租金收益率较高，上述资产出售可能结构 ...

证券研究报告 中银航空租赁 (2588 HK) 港股通 (%)中银航空租赁 恒生指数 (22) (12) (2) 9 19 Aug-23 Dec-23 Apr-24 Aug-24 资料来源：S&P 基本数据 预计 2024 年净租赁收益率不会低于 2023 年 1H24 年净租赁收益率 7.0%（1H23：7.0%），经营性租赁费率为 9.8%（1H23： 9.8%），2023 年全年净租赁收益率/租赁费率为 7.1/10%，隐含 1H24 的净 租赁收益率和租赁费率可能低于 2H23。我们认为这可能是由于延迟交付对 租赁费率的拖累，以及资金成本的上涨。1H24 资金成本涨至 4.6%（1H23： 3.9%）。1H24 公司交付 18 架飞机，出售 15 架飞机，签署 55 份租约承诺， 自有机队数量小幅上涨至 429 架（1Q24：427 架），平均剩余租期 7.9 年， 平均机龄 4.9 年。融资性租赁贡献提升，1H24 融租收入同比增长 380%， 融租租赁费率涨至 7.2%（1H23：6.2%）。未来随着有更高租赁费率的新飞 机交付以及全球高息压力部分释放，我们认为 2024 年的净租赁收益率可能 不 ...