香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性或完整性亦不 發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損 失承擔任何責任。 STANDARD CHARTERED PLC 渣打集團有限公司 （於英格蘭及威爾士註冊之有限責任的公眾有限公司） （編號：966425） （股份代號：02888） 二〇二五年全年度及第四季度業績 目錄 | 表現摘要 | 03 | | --- | --- | | 業績報表 | 05 | | 集團主席報告 | 06 | | 集團行政總裁報告 | 08 | | 集團財務總監回顧 | 11 | | 財務回顧 | 14 | | 補充財務資料 | 20 | | 基本及列賬基準業績對賬 | 32 | | 集團風險總監回顧 | 36 | | 風險回顧 | 44 | | 資本回顧 | 48 | | 財務報表 | 53 | | 其他補充財務資料 | 58 | | 股東資料 | 64 | 除另有指明其他貨幣外，本文件中提述的「元」字或「$」符號概指美元，而「仙」字或「c」符號概指一百分之一美元。 除文義另有所指外，於本文件內 ...

Core Insights - The stablecoin market is projected to expand significantly, potentially reaching a market capitalization of $2 trillion by the end of 2028, up from approximately $309 billion today, which could reshape the Treasury market [2][3] - Stablecoin issuers are expected to become major buyers of U.S. Treasury bills, generating between $0.8 trillion and $1.0 trillion in incremental demand for these short-term government debt securities [3][4] - The total new demand for Treasury bills could reach around $2.2 trillion by 2028, factoring in expected Federal Reserve purchases and reinvestments [4] Treasury Market Implications - Every dollar minted in stablecoins typically translates into demand for safe, liquid assets like Treasury bills, indicating a direct correlation between stablecoin issuance and Treasury bill demand [3][4] - Analysts suggest that if the share of outstanding debt in Treasury bills is not increased, there could be an excess demand of $0.9 trillion for T-bills, leading to potential scarcity [5] - To address this imbalance, it is recommended to increase Treasury bill issuance while reducing long-dated bond supply, which could allow for the suspension of 30-year bond auctions for the next three years [6] Government Response - The U.S. Treasury is actively monitoring the growing demand for Treasury bills from the private sector and the System Open Market Account (SOMA) purchases, indicating awareness of the changing dynamics in the Treasury market [7]

Core Insights - Stablecoins are projected to significantly impact the US Treasury market, potentially leading to a major shift in debt issuance strategies [2][3] - Standard Chartered estimates that stablecoin issuers could create between $0.8 trillion and $1 trillion in new demand for Treasury bills by the end of 2028 [2] - The total short-term Treasury demand could reach $2.2 trillion when combined with Federal Reserve purchases [3] Demand Dynamics - Emerging market stablecoins are expected to account for the majority of the projected demand, with two-thirds of T-bill demand coming from these markets [5] - In contrast, stablecoins in developed markets primarily replace existing holdings rather than generating new demand [5] Implications for Treasury Strategy - The US Treasury may leverage the anticipated excess demand for T-bills to justify increasing T-bill issuance while decreasing long-term bond supply [3][4] - This strategy could potentially lead to the suspension of all 30-year bond auctions for the next three years [3] Market Impact - The shift of approximately $9 billion from long-term bonds to T-bills could initially flatten the US Treasury yield curve [6] - Long-term premia, fiscal deficit concerns, and market sentiment may influence investor reactions over time [7]

Market Overview - Bitcoin (BTC-USD) experienced a 4% decline, hovering under $65,000, following a three-week low as the broader market faced global trade uncertainties [1] - The decline was influenced by the Supreme Court's decision to strike down President Trump's tariffs, leading to a 10% blanket global tariff that was later raised to 15%, increasing investor unease [1] Bitcoin Performance - Bitcoin is down 24% year-to-date and remains approximately 47% below its all-time high from October [2] - The cryptocurrency is on track for its fifth consecutive month of losses [2][6] Market Sentiment - Bespoke Investment Group noted that investors are questioning Bitcoin's effectiveness as a store of value [2] - Analysts suggest that the current "crypto winter" may not be as severe as previous cycles, with fewer insolvencies among crypto lenders and prime brokers compared to the 2022 downturn [3][6] Notable Events - The largest failure in the current year has been Blockfills, a midsize prime broker that halted deposits and withdrawals amid declining Bitcoin prices; however, it is considered smaller than many peers, and no significant domino effect has been observed in the broader market [4][6] Analyst Predictions - Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick revised the year-end price target for Bitcoin to $100,000 from $150,000 [7] - Kendrick indicated that the market does not expect further Federal Reserve rate cuts until Kevin Warsh takes over as chair in June, suggesting that ETF holders may be more inclined to sell rather than buy the dip for the time being [8]

Crypto Stablecoins might be about to rewrite part of the US debt story. New research from Standard Chartered says the sector could drive up to $1T in fresh demand for US Treasury bills by 2028. As stablecoin issuers grow, they are expected to become major buyers of government debt, turning digital dollars into a serious force in traditional finance. Key Takeaways $2 Trillion Trajectory: Analysts project the total stablecoin market capitalization will surge to $2 trillion by the end of 2028, up from rou ...

Core Viewpoint - Stablecoin issuers are projected to become significant buyers of short-term U.S. government debt, with market capitalization expected to reach $2 trillion by the end of 2028, up from approximately $309 billion today [1][5]. Group 1: Demand for U.S. Treasury Bills - The growth of stablecoins is anticipated to generate an incremental demand of approximately $0.8 trillion to $1.0 trillion for U.S. Treasury bills, as issuers will hold short-dated government securities as reserves [2]. - Total new demand for Treasury bills is estimated to be around $2.2 trillion between now and 2028, factoring in expected Federal Reserve purchases of $500 billion to $600 billion and reinvestment of maturing mortgage-backed securities [3]. - There is a projected excess demand of $0.9 trillion for Treasury bills if their share of outstanding debt is not increased, indicating a potential scarcity of T-bills if no action is taken [3]. Group 2: Adjustments in Treasury Supply - To address the imbalance in demand, one suggested approach is to increase T-bill issuance while reducing the supply of long-dated bonds, allowing for a suspension of 30-year auctions for the next three years [4]. - The Treasury is already monitoring the situation, as indicated in its February Quarterly Refunding Announcement, which noted the growing demand for Treasury bills from the private sector [5]. Group 3: Stablecoin Market Dynamics - Recent months have seen a slowdown in stablecoin growth due to weaker digital asset markets and adjustments following the passage of the GENIUS Act, although this is viewed as a cyclical pause rather than a structural change [5][6]. - The long-term forecast for stablecoin market capitalization remains at $2 trillion, with an estimated $500 billion in deposits potentially shifting from banks into stablecoins by 2028 [6]. - Some market participants suggest that the macroeconomic impact of stablecoins may be limited unless they achieve significant scale [6].

渣打银行表示，随着稳定币规模持续扩张，到 2028 年可能带来高达 1 万亿美元的美国国债（主要为短 期 T-bills）新增需求。报告指出，稳定币发行方通常以短期美债作为储备资产，若稳定币供应量显著增 长，将对美国短期国债市场形成结构性买盘，并可能为美国财政部调整债务发行结构提供空间。 （TheBlock） （来源：吴说） ...

Core Insights - Standard Chartered has lowered its price forecasts for major cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP, indicating a potential further decline in the market before stabilization in 2026 [1][8] Cryptocurrency Price Forecasts - The year-end 2026 target for XRP has been reduced to $2.80 from $8.00, and the 2027 estimate has also been lowered, while longer-range projections remain unchanged [2] - Bitcoin's end-2026 target has been cut to $100,000 from $150,000, marking the second reduction in less than three months [2][8] - Ethereum's end-2026 forecast has been lowered to $4,000 from $7,500, with a potential drop to $1,400 before a rebound [7] - Solana's end-2026 target has been reduced to $135 from $250 [7] Market Sentiment and Trends - Weaker risk appetite and selling pressure from exchange-traded funds could exacerbate losses across the cryptocurrency industry [1] - Despite the overall market struggles, XRP saw inflows of $33.4 million, contrasting with the broader market's net outflows of $173 million, primarily driven by Bitcoin's $133 million in withdrawals [4][5] - Market sentiment around XRP has weakened since its late-2025 rally, with analysts suggesting that recent price movements may be more indicative of a relief rally rather than a sustained recovery [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - Standard Chartered Bank has significantly reduced its year-end price target for XRP from $8 to $2.8, representing a decline of approximately 65%, and anticipates continued pressure on the cryptocurrency market in the short term [1] Price Target Adjustments - The bank has also lowered its year-end price targets for other cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin (BTC) from $150,000 to $100,000, Ethereum (ETH) from $7,000 to $4,000, and Solana (SOL) from $250 to $135 [1] Market Conditions - Geoffrey Kendrick, the head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, indicated that the recent performance of digital asset prices has been "extremely challenging," prompting the downward revision of forecasts across the asset class [1]

Core Viewpoint - Standard Chartered has significantly reduced its end-of-year price target for XRP by 65%, revising it from $8 to $2.80 due to the recent downturn in the crypto market [1] Market Performance - The digital asset market has faced severe challenges, with Bitcoin experiencing a 28% decline over the past month, reaching a low of $60,000 before a slight recovery [2] - XRP has also struggled, briefly dropping to $1.16, its lowest price in 15 months, and is currently down approximately 28% over the last month [3] XRP's Recent Trends - XRP started 2026 positively, with a 25% increase in the first week, driven by ETF inflows and favorable regulatory conditions [4] - The total amount locked in XRP ETFs peaked at $1.6 billion but has since decreased by 40% to just over $1 billion as of February 13 [4] Broader Crypto Forecasts - Standard Chartered has also revised its year-end targets for other cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin from $150,000 to $100,000, Ethereum from $7,000 to $4,000, and Solana from $250 to $135 [5] - The bank anticipates that XRP will perform similarly to Ethereum, benefiting from the development of stablecoins and tokenized real-world assets [5] Legislative Developments - A potential catalyst for XRP's price recovery is the Clarity Act, a significant crypto market bill currently under consideration in the US Senate [6] - US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that the passage of the Clarity Act could aid in the recovery of the crypto market [6] - Progress on the Clarity Act had stalled due to disagreements among banking leaders and crypto executives, but recent discussions have been described as productive [7]