Core Viewpoint - The company's 1H25 performance fell short of expectations, with significant declines in both EBITDA and net profit due to higher costs and expenses [1][2]. Financial Performance - 1H25 operating EBITDA was AUD 595 million, down 40% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was AUD 163 million, down 61% year-on-year, with earnings per share at AUD 0.124, below expectations [1]. - 1H25 coal production increased to approximately 18.9 million tons, up 11% year-on-year, while sales volume decreased to approximately 16.6 million tons, down 2% year-on-year [1][2]. - The average selling price for self-produced coal was AUD 149 per ton, down 15% year-on-year [2]. Sales and Pricing - 1H25 sales of thermal coal were 13.8 million tons, down 7% year-on-year, while coking coal sales were 2.8 million tons, up 40% year-on-year [1][2]. - The cash operating cost per ton of coal (excluding royalties) was AUD 105, up 4% year-on-year, while the cash cost per ton based on production was AUD 93, down 8% year-on-year [2]. Capital Expenditure and Cash Flow - Capital expenditure for 1H25 was AUD 407 million, with free cash flow estimated at AUD 66 million [2]. - As of the end of 2Q25, the company held AUD 1.8 billion in cash, with a net cash position of AUD 1.67 billion [2]. Future Outlook - The company expects full-year coal production to be at the upper end of the guidance range of 35-39 million tons, with cash costs per ton expected to be at the lower end of the guidance range of AUD 89-97 [2]. - The company announced an interim dividend of AUD 0.062 per share, resulting in a payout ratio of 50% based on net profit for 1H25 [2]. Market Trends - The company anticipates a recovery in sales volume in the second half of the year, driven by easing weather disruptions [3]. - Coal prices have shown signs of recovery since June, with prices for Australian coal increasing compared to 2Q25 averages [3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down by 37% and 7% to AUD 535 million and AUD 747 million, respectively [3]. - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 13.6x for 2025 and 9.3x for 2026, with a target price adjustment of 6% down to HKD 29, implying a 3% upside potential [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yancoal Australia (3668 HK) with a target price adjusted to HKD 34.70, reflecting a potential upside of 22.9% and a target P/E ratio of 8.5 times for FY25 [4][6][20]. Core Views - The mid-year performance for FY25 was slightly disappointing, with a year-on-year decline in revenue and net profit of 14.8% and 61.2%, respectively, due to lower average coal prices and temporary weather-related logistics issues [1][2]. - However, the outlook for the second half of FY25 is expected to improve, driven by seasonal energy demand and policy changes in China, leading to a forecasted rebound in coal prices [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of FY25, Yancoal reported revenue of AUD 268 million and a net profit of AUD 16 million, down from the previous year [1]. - The average coal price fell by 15.3% to AUD 149 per ton, with thermal and metallurgical coal prices decreasing by 11.5% and 35.1%, respectively [1]. - Despite an 11.1% increase in coal production to 18.9 million tons, sales volume dropped by 1.8% to 16.6 million tons due to logistical challenges [1]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a narrowing of the year-on-year decline in coal prices for FY25, with expected average prices of AUD 149 for thermal coal and AUD 219 for metallurgical coal [2]. - The forecast for total coal sales volume for FY25 is projected to increase by 1.3% to 38.2 million tons, with a sales-to-production ratio of 97.2% [2]. Operational Guidance - Yancoal maintains its operational guidance for FY25, targeting coal production between 35 million to 39 million tons, cash operating costs of AUD 89-97 per ton, and capital expenditures of AUD 750-900 million [3]. Adjusted Profit Forecasts - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for FY25-27 downwards by 9.3%, 8.0%, and 11.0%, respectively, reflecting the updated expectations based on mid-year performance [4][5].

中金发布研报称，考虑到煤价下调等假设，下调兖煤澳大利亚(03668)2025/26E盈利37%/7%至5.35/7.47 亿澳元。当前股价对应港股2025/26E市盈率为13.6倍/9.3倍。考虑到公司较可比同行具备一定成本优 势，该行维持跑赢行业评级，随着需求边际改善，叠加7月以来"反内卷"政策在行业中持续发酵，看好 2025-2026年基本面保持韧性，切换至2026年估值，下调目标价6%至29港元，对应港股14.0倍2025E市 盈率和9.6倍2026E市盈率，隐含3%上行空间。 中金主要观点如下： 1H25业绩低于该行预期 1H25吨煤现金经营成本(不含特许权使用费)105澳元，同比+4%，主要是销量相对偏低导致摊薄减少， 而以单位产量计算的吨现金成本为93澳元，同比-8%。资本开支4.07亿澳元，该行测算自由现金流0.66 亿澳元。截至2Q25末公司持有现金18亿澳元，对应净现金16.7亿澳元。公司预计全年权益商品煤产量或 处3,500-3,900万吨指引区间上端，吨煤现金成本处于89-97澳元指引区间下端，资本开支处于7.5-9.0亿澳 元指引区间内。宣布中期股息0.062澳元/股。以净利润计算，1 ...

Core Viewpoint - Yancoal Australia (3668.HK) experienced a significant decline in stock price, dropping over 9% to 28.46 HKD, marking the lowest point since June 11 [1] Financial Performance - The company reported a shareholder profit of 163 million AUD for the interim period ending June, representing a year-on-year decrease of 61.2% [1] - A mid-term dividend of 0.062 AUD was declared [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Yancoal Australia (03668) experienced a significant decline in its stock price following the release of its interim results, with a drop of over 9% and a current price of 28.98 HKD [1] - Yancoal Australia's interim performance showed a revenue of 2.675 billion AUD, a year-on-year decrease of 14.75%, and a shareholder profit of 163 million AUD, down 61.19% compared to the previous year [1] - The company announced a proposed interim dividend of 0.062 AUD per share, with basic earnings per share reported at 12.4 AUD cents [1] Group 2 - The decrease in revenue was primarily attributed to a 16% decline in coal sales revenue, which fell from 3.030 billion AUD in the same period last year to 2.558 billion AUD in the first half of this year [1] - Yancoal Australia reported that its equity sales volume reached 8.1 million tons in the second quarter of 2025, remaining stable compared to the previous quarter, but down 1.3 million tons from the equity commodity coal production [1] - Adverse weather conditions led to temporary port closures, delaying planned shipments from the current quarter to the third quarter, although the company still expects to deliver the delayed shipments during the third quarter of 2025 [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Long coal production was 32.2 million tonnes, and attributable sellable coal production was 18.9 million tonnes, tracking well against full year production guidance [4] - Cash operating costs were $93 per tonne, flat compared to the previous year, with an implied cash operating margin of $40 per tonne [5][11] - Revenue for the first half was $2.68 billion, with operating EBITDA of $595 million at a 23% margin, reflecting a 15% decrease in revenue compared to the previous year [5][30] - Profit after tax was $163 million, with a fully franked interim dividend of $82 million declared, representing a 50% payout ratio [6][34] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - ROM coal and saleable coal production were 15% to 16% higher than the first half of the previous year, while attributable sales were effectively flat due to temporary disruptions [10] - Attributable saleable coal was up 11% compared to the previous year, indicating strong operational performance despite challenges [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Realized thermal coal price was $138 per tonne, down 12% from the previous year, while metallurgical coal price was $207 per tonne, down 35% [23][24] - The company observed cuts to supply from Indonesia (12%) and Colombia (24%), which could support a recovery in international thermal coal prices [23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain low cash operating costs and optimize production volumes, product quality, and efficiency metrics to deliver the best outcomes for shareholders [36] - There is a focus on operational recovery and maintaining production guidance of 35 to 39 million tonnes for the full year [36] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that geopolitical events and weather disruptions impacted sales and logistics, but they are optimistic about recovering delayed shipments in the third quarter [20][30] - The company is confident in the demand for metallurgical coal, particularly from India and Southeast Asia, as these regions are expected to see growth [56] Other Important Information - The company retains a strong balance sheet with $1.8 billion in cash and no external debt, providing flexibility for future growth opportunities [6][34] - The capital expenditure guidance for 2025 is set at $750 million to $900 million, with ongoing investments required to ensure productivity [36] Q&A Session Summary Question: Why is the decline in profit from certain mines more drastic than others? - Management attributed this to the drop in API five prices, which affected margins, particularly from low CV coal [40][42] Question: Is the year-over-year increase in coal royalty per sellable tonne due to the royalty rate change? - The increase is due to both the royalty rate change and lower coal prices, resulting in a relatively flat royalty across periods [45][48] Question: How likely is it that inventory will be digested by year-end? - Management is on schedule to catch up on first-half underperformance and aims to reduce inventory by the end of August or early September [51][54] Question: What are the growth opportunities for coking coal outside of China? - Significant growth opportunities are seen in India and Southeast Asia, driven by infrastructure plans and GDP growth [56] Question: Are there plans for further expansion in coal production volume? - The company is focused on optimizing existing assets for productivity rather than significant expansions at this time [57][59] Question: What is the expected sales mix for 2025? - The sales mix is expected to remain relatively consistent, with minor variations due to production impacts from weather [80][82] Question: What is the interest rate on the cash balance held? - The company is currently receiving between 4% to 5% on its cash balance [85] Question: Will Yancoal consider acquisitions in China? - While open to growth opportunities, competing against the majority shareholder in China may not be practical [100] Question: How does the company assess potential M&A opportunities? - The company evaluates all opportunities in the best interest of shareholders, maintaining a strong balance sheet to support growth [90][92]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Yancoal reported a revenue of AUD 2.68 billion, a 15% decrease compared to the previous year, primarily due to lower average realized coal prices and delayed sales volumes [29][30] - Operating EBITDA was AUD 595 million, reflecting a 40% decrease, resulting in a margin of 23% [5][30] - Profit after tax was AUD 163 million, translating to AUD 0.02 per share, with a 50% payout ratio leading to an interim dividend of AUD 82 million [6][30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Long coal production reached 32.2 million tonnes, with attributable sellable coal production at 18.9 million tonnes, indicating a strong operational performance [4][10] - Cash operating costs remained flat at AUD 93 per tonne, an 8% improvement over the previous year [11][14] - Attributable saleable coal was up 11% compared to the previous year, despite flat sales due to temporary disruptions [12][10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The realized thermal coal price was AUD 138 per tonne, down 12% from the previous year, while metallurgical coal prices fell 35% to AUD 207 per tonne [22][23] - The company noted a stable customer mix, with significant contributions from China and Japan, although global demand for metallurgical coal remains sluggish [20][21] - Supply cuts from Indonesia (12%) and Colombia (24%) were observed, which could support a recovery in international thermal coal prices [22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Yancoal aims to maintain production guidance of 35 to 39 million tonnes for the full year, with a focus on optimizing operational performance and cost management [34] - The company is committed to reinvesting in its assets to ensure productivity and cost-effectiveness, with capital expenditure guidance set between AUD 750 million and AUD 900 million [35] - Management remains open to M&A opportunities, evaluating both domestic and international prospects while being cautious in the current coal market conditions [89][91] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in recovering delayed shipments and optimizing inventory levels, targeting to catch up on first-half underperformance by the end of Q3 [19][53] - The company anticipates a potential recovery in coal prices, driven by geopolitical events and supply-demand dynamics, while acknowledging the need to navigate the current market cycle [25][113] - Management emphasized the importance of maintaining financial discipline and operational efficiency in the short term [113] Other Important Information - The company has no external debt and holds AUD 1.8 billion in cash, providing a strong financial position for future growth opportunities [6][30] - Yancoal's sustainability strategy includes initiatives for decarbonization and improving safety performance, with a commitment to reducing TRIFR [7][8] Q&A Session Summary Question: Why is the profit decline from certain mines more drastic than others? - Management attributed the decline to the drop in API five prices, which affected margins, particularly from low CV coal [39][41] Question: Is the year-over-year increase in coal royalty per sellable tonne due to the royalty rate change? - Management confirmed that the increase is due to both the royalty rate change and lower coal prices, resulting in relatively flat royalties across periods [44][47] Question: How likely is it that inventory will be digested by year-end? - Management indicated that they are on schedule to catch up on inventory by the end of August or early September [53] Question: What are the growth opportunities for coking coal outside of China? - Management highlighted significant growth opportunities in India and Southeast Asia, driven by infrastructure needs and economic growth [55] Question: Are there plans for further expansion in coal production volume? - Management stated that while there are conceptual projects under study, the current production profile is steady, focusing on optimizing existing assets [56][59] Question: Will Yancoal consider acquisitions in China? - Management noted that while they are open to M&A opportunities, competing against their majority shareholder in China may not be practical [105] Question: What is the expected sales mix for 2025? - Management indicated that while there may be a marginal difference in the thermal coal mix, it would not be substantial [84]

据悉，公司此前发布公告称，2025年第二季度，权益销量达810万吨，虽与上一季度基本持平，但仍较 权益商品煤产量减少130万吨。本季度末恶劣的天气因素导致港口临时关闭，使得原计划本季度完成的 发运延后至第三季度完成。尽管第三季度初港口因天气因素再次闭港，集团仍有望将延迟的发货于2025 年第三季度期间交付。 消息面上，兖煤澳大利亚发布中期业绩，收入26.75亿澳元，同比减少14.75%；股东应占溢利1.63亿澳 元，同比减少61.19%；每股基本收益12.4澳分；拟派发中期股息每股0.062澳元。公告称，收益减少主 要由于煤炭销售收入由去年同期的30.30亿澳元减少16%至今年上半年的25.58亿澳元所致。 兖煤澳大利亚(03668)绩后跌超9%，截至发稿，跌7.71%，报28.98港元，成交额1186.59万港元。 ...

据悉，公司此前发布公告称，2025年第二季度，权益销量达810万吨，虽与上一季度基本持平，但仍较 权益商品煤产量减少130万吨。本季度末恶劣的天气因素导致港口临时关闭，使得原计划本季度完成的 发运延后至第三季度完成。尽管第三季度初港口因天气因素再次闭港，集团仍有望将延迟的发货于2025 年第三季度期间交付。 消息面上，兖煤澳大利亚发布中期业绩，收入26.75亿澳元，同比减少14.75%；股东应占溢利1.63亿澳 元，同比减少61.19%；每股基本收益12.4澳分；拟派发中期股息每股0.062澳元。公告称，收益减少主 要由于煤炭销售收入由去年同期的30.30亿澳元减少16%至今年上半年的25.58亿澳元所致。 智通财经APP获悉，兖煤澳大利亚(03668)绩后跌超9%，截至发稿，跌7.71%，报28.98港元，成交额 1186.59万港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Yancoal Australia reported a significant decline in revenue and profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to falling global coal prices and supply chain disruptions [1][3]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 was AUD 2.675 billion, a 15% decrease year-on-year [1]. - After-tax profit dropped to AUD 163 million, reflecting a substantial 61% decline compared to the previous year [1]. Coal Production and Sales - Despite challenges, the company achieved an 11% increase in equity coal production, reaching 18.9 million tons [1][4]. - However, coal sales decreased by 2%, falling from 16.9 million tons in the first half of 2024 to 16.6 million tons [4]. Price Trends - The average selling price of self-produced coal fell by 15%, from AUD 176 per ton in the first half of 2024 to AUD 149 per ton [3]. - Major coal price indices experienced significant declines, with the GCNewc thermal coal index dropping by USD 28 per ton (21%) and the API5 coal index decreasing by USD 19 per ton (21%) [3]. Supply Chain Issues - Supply chain disruptions, particularly due to severe weather in New South Wales, led to operational delays and increased inventory levels [4]. - The company faced challenges with rail network interruptions and restricted vessel passage at Newcastle port, resulting in coal stockpiling and cash flow impacts [4]. Outlook and Guidance - Yancoal Australia remains optimistic about achieving its full-year production target of 35 million to 39 million tons, supported by strong production capacity and operational efficiency [6]. - The company aims to maintain cash operating costs within the lower half of its guidance range, with costs reported at AUD 93 per ton [6]. - Capital expenditures are on track, with AUD 407 million spent in the first half, expected to reach the full-year guidance of AUD 750 million to AUD 900 million [6].