消息面上，相关机构近期表示，创新药仍处于产业加速向上的周期，今年也有强基本面的兑现支撑。在 既往ADC、PD1/VEGF等技术爆发之后，TCE、ProTac等新技术已经看到萌芽开花；同时，创新药从可 预期的BD潮走向盈利潮，以往大家对创新药的疑虑是研究壁垒高、企业没盈利，因此不敢投，但随着 未来企业的收入高增速带动利润的快速提升，就进入了投资者可理解的范畴内。 港股创新药板块高盈利持续消化估值。港股创新药指数2月21日市盈率为64倍，4月24日最新市盈率仅为 27倍，不足两个月前的一半，当前布局性价比突出。 4月24日，港股市场低开震荡，港股创新药板块全面爆发。港股创新药指数成分股中，凯莱英涨超 17%，荣昌生物、亚盛医药-B、康方生物涨超7%，信达生物、联邦制药涨超6%，康龙化成、三生制药 涨超4%。港股创新药ETF（159567）连续2个交易日成交额超9亿元，市场关注度较高。 西南证券表示，创新药板块的投资价值在于其背后的新质生产力和高质量发展的大背景。随着各地政府 不断出台支持创新药的政策，如北京、深圳等地发布的支持创新药政策，这些政策不仅加强了对创新药 械研发、生产、审批、使用的全链条支持，还促进了健 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Federated Pharmaceuticals Company Overview - The conference call focused on Federated Pharmaceuticals, discussing its recent economic situation and performance in the pharmaceutical industry, particularly in the weight loss medication sector [2][3]. Key Financial Highlights - The overall revenue for the year was 13.759 billion RMB, remaining stable compared to the previous year [4]. - Profit slightly decreased by 1.5% to 2.66 billion RMB [4]. - The company plans to distribute a total dividend of 0.56 RMB per share for the year, including a special dividend of 0.12 RMB [4]. - The payout ratio increased to 38.3%, up from 35% the previous year, indicating a focus on shareholder returns [9]. Product Development and Innovation - Federated Pharmaceuticals has made significant strides in its weight loss drug pipeline, particularly with the product UBT-251, which has shown promising results in clinical trials [19][32]. - The company entered a licensing agreement with Novo Nordisk for UBT-251, receiving an upfront payment of 200 million USD and potential milestone payments totaling 1.8 billion USD [8]. - The product has demonstrated a weight loss effect of 15.1% in the highest dosage group during trials, outperforming placebo results [19][33]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a leader in the pharmaceutical industry, benefiting from a favorable industry environment and a robust product pipeline [2][3]. - Federated Pharmaceuticals is expanding its international presence, having registered six animal health products in Vietnam and Australia, with plans for further market penetration in Southeast Asia and beyond [13][39]. - The company is also focusing on the pet care market, with plans to introduce high-end pet food products, capitalizing on the growing demand in this sector [37][38]. Operational Efficiency and Cost Management - The company is implementing various projects to improve production efficiency and reduce costs, including an environmental project aimed at 100% recycling of waste [26]. - A new power station has been established to optimize energy costs based on coal price fluctuations [26][27]. Challenges and Market Outlook - There are concerns regarding price fluctuations in the market, primarily driven by changes in demand [25][29]. - The company remains optimistic about its ability to manage these fluctuations through cost improvements and strategic planning [29][30]. Conclusion - Federated Pharmaceuticals is demonstrating stable financial performance while actively pursuing innovation and market expansion. The focus on shareholder returns, product development, and operational efficiency positions the company well for future growth in the competitive pharmaceutical landscape [22][40].

今日港股回调，创新药再度逆市上涨！港股通创新药ETF（159570）强势大涨近3%，成交额继续爆量，盘中成交近5亿元！上周五成交额再度刷新历史，天 量成交16.49亿元！资金持续乐观，上周累计获资金净流入近2亿元，今日盘中再获净申购4300万份！ 港股通创新药ETF（159570）成分股多数飘红：乐普生物涨超12%，百济神州涨超5%，信达生物涨超3%，晶泰控股涨超2%，康方生物、药明生物、科伦博 泰生物涨超1%。 资金狂涌创新药，港股通创新药ETF（159570）近60日"吸金"近10亿元，融资余额保持历史高位，反映杠杆资金布局意愿！最新规模19.27亿元创上市新 高，1个月实现规模翻倍！ 【机构：医药见底回暖，创新药主线强化】 光大证券认为，医药行情见底回暖，优化集采政策有望稳定资产盈利能力。近期，医药行情整体已显现见底回暖迹象，从2025.1.2~2025.3.27期间，港股创 新药指数上涨26.28%，跑赢恒生科技1.20pp。2025年工作报告提出"优化药品集采政策"，有望优化产业竞争环境，仿制药利润压缩接近尾声，竞争格局趋于 稳定，龙头白马企业凭借技术壁垒与产能优势，盈利能力有望企稳。后集采时代，行 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 18.59 HKD [8][9]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 13.759 billion RMB in 2024, a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.660 billion RMB, a decrease of 1.5% year-on-year, primarily due to seasonal factory maintenance in the second half of 2024 [1]. - The company has entered a significant partnership with Novo Nordisk for the overseas development and commercialization rights of UBT251, marking a milestone in GLP-1 related transactions in China [2]. - The diabetes segment is projected to grow steadily in 2025, driven by existing product demand and new product launches [2]. - The intermediate segment achieved sales of 2.659 billion RMB in 2024, a 15% year-on-year increase, supported by stable pricing and export opportunities [3]. - The animal health segment saw a 17% year-on-year increase in revenue in 2024, with expectations for accelerated growth in 2025 due to new product launches and partnerships [4]. - The company anticipates a rapid increase in net profit in 2025, supported by the confirmation of UBT251's upfront payment [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenues of 14.945 billion RMB in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 8.62% [7]. - The net profit is expected to rise to 4.146 billion RMB in 2025, reflecting a 55.87% increase year-on-year [7]. - The EPS for 2025 is projected at 2.28 RMB, with a PE ratio of 7.5x [5]. Business Segments - The diabetes segment is expected to generate 1.248 billion RMB in revenue in 2024, a 9.5% increase year-on-year, with further growth anticipated in 2025 [2]. - The intermediate segment's revenue is projected to remain stable in 2025, supported by controlled pricing and export opportunities [3]. - The animal health segment is expected to see significant growth in 2025 due to new product launches and collaborations with industry leaders [4]. Valuation - The target price of 18.59 HKD is based on a PE ratio of 7.5x for 2025, compared to a comparable company average of 9x [5].

Group 1 - Federal Pharmaceutical (03933) shares rose over 10%, reaching HKD 15.32 with a trading volume of HKD 450 million [1] - The company announced an exclusive licensing agreement with Novo Nordisk for UBT251, retaining rights in China while granting global rights (excluding mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) to Novo Nordisk [1] - Federal Biotech will receive an upfront payment of USD 200 million and up to USD 1.8 billion in potential milestone payments, along with tiered sales royalties based on annual net sales outside of China [1] Group 2 - Federal Pharmaceutical reported a revenue of approximately RMB 13.759 billion for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was about RMB 2.66 billion, a decrease of 1.5% [2] - The company proposed a final dividend of HKD 0.28 per share and a special dividend of HKD 0.12 per share [2] - Due to expected short-term pressure on the sales of intermediates, raw materials, and antibiotics, revenue forecasts for 2025-2026 were adjusted downwards by 8.9% and 12.3% respectively, although the company anticipates receiving the USD 200 million upfront payment from Novo Nordisk in 2025 [2]

Financial Performance - The total revenue for the year 2024 was approximately RMB 13,758.9 million, showing a slight increase of 0.1% compared to 2023[3]. - The profit attributable to the company's owners for the year was RMB 2,659.7 million, reflecting a decrease of 1.5% year-on-year[4]. - The basic earnings per share for the year were RMB 146.39, down 1.5% from the previous year[3]. - Gross profit decreased to RMB 6,082,391 thousand in 2024 from RMB 6,334,837 thousand in 2023, reflecting a decline of about 3.98%[13]. - The company reported a net profit of RMB 2,657,821 thousand for 2024, down from RMB 2,700,845 thousand in 2023, indicating a decrease of approximately 1.6%[13]. - The revenue breakdown for 2024 includes RMB 2,658,691 thousand from intermediate products, RMB 6,372,683 thousand from active pharmaceutical ingredients, and RMB 4,727,563 thousand from formulation products[30]. - The segment profit before R&D expenses for 2024 was RMB 4,009,219 thousand, compared to RMB 4,112,034 thousand in 2023, indicating a decrease of about 2.5%[30][32]. - R&D expenses for 2024 totaled RMB 890,757 thousand, an increase from RMB 757,248 thousand in 2023, reflecting a rise of approximately 17.6%[34]. - The company reported a pre-tax profit of RMB 3,288,898 thousand for 2024, compared to RMB 3,344,148 thousand in 2023, showing a decrease of about 1.65%[32]. - The total other income for 2024 was RMB 356,929 thousand, significantly higher than RMB 212,475 thousand in 2023, representing an increase of about 67.9%[33]. - The company’s external customer revenue from the Chinese market was RMB 11,115,585 thousand in 2024, slightly down from RMB 11,124,265 thousand in 2023, a decrease of about 0.08%[32]. - The company’s net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 2,659,700,000, a decrease of 1.5% year-on-year, with earnings per share at RMB 146.39[62]. - The company’s formulation product segment saw a significant profit decline of 47.0%, primarily due to price reductions from national drug procurement policies[62]. Dividends and Shareholder Returns - The company declared a total annual dividend of RMB 56.0 per share, representing a 7.7% increase compared to the previous year[3]. - The total dividend declared for 2024 was RMB 726,733,000, consistent with the previous year's total of RMB 726,811,000, indicating stability in dividend distribution[39]. Assets and Liabilities - The total assets increased to RMB 17,060,503 thousand in 2024 from RMB 14,390,448 thousand in 2023, marking a growth of about 18.6%[14]. - Non-current assets rose to RMB 9,762,356 thousand in 2024, compared to RMB 7,229,979 thousand in 2023, an increase of approximately 35%[14]. - The company’s total assets rose to approximately RMB 25,833,100,000 from RMB 21,017,200,000 in 2023, while total liabilities increased to RMB 11,397,800,000 from RMB 8,269,600,000[65]. - The company’s accounts payable for trade and supplier financing arrangements amounted to RMB 2,088,785,000, a decrease from RMB 2,238,152,000 in 2023[13]. Investments and Expenditures - The company invested approximately RMB 2,858,081,000 in property, plant, and equipment in 2024, significantly higher than RMB 1,143,439,000 in 2023, representing an increase of about 150%[41]. - The company has committed to capital expenditures of RMB 2,147,126,000 for property, plant, and equipment that have been contracted but not yet provided for in the financial statements[45]. - The company recorded a depreciation expense of RMB 579,883,000 for property, plant, and equipment in 2024, compared to RMB 536,303,000 in 2023, reflecting an increase of about 8.1%[39]. Research and Development - The company has 8 Class 1 new drug projects in clinical stages, including several high-value products[5]. - The company is actively pursuing new drug projects for overseas licensing to provide comprehensive treatment options globally[5]. - The company has established a comprehensive R&D system, including multiple platforms for biological, chemical, and innovative drug development[59]. - The company invested approximately RMB 985,500,000 in drug research and development, with R&D expenses increasing by 21.9% year-on-year[59]. - The company has 45 new human drug products in development, including 22 Class 1 new drugs focusing on endocrine, metabolism, autoimmune, ophthalmology, and anti-infection fields[59]. Market Expansion and Partnerships - The company has secured 6 overseas registrations for its animal health products and is expanding its international market presence[8]. - Strategic partnerships have been formed with various domestic and international partners to enhance the company's global footprint[8]. - The company achieved record overseas revenue in its intermediates and raw materials business, enhancing its international brand recognition[9]. Corporate Governance and Management - The company has adopted and complied with the corporate governance code as per the Stock Exchange Listing Rules, with some deviations noted[72]. - There is currently no Chief Executive Officer, and the company plans to appoint one at an appropriate time[73]. - The audit committee, consisting of three independent non-executive directors, reviewed the consolidated financial statements for the year ending December 31, 2024[75]. - The board of directors includes six executive directors and three independent non-executive directors as of the announcement date[77]. Compliance and Accounting Standards - The group has adopted revised Hong Kong Financial Reporting Standards effective from January 1, 2024, including HKFRS 16 regarding lease liabilities and HKAS 1 for classifying liabilities as current or non-current[17]. - The adoption of these amendments did not have a significant impact on the consolidated financial statements[22]. - The group has not early adopted any new or revised Hong Kong Financial Reporting Standards that have been issued but are not yet effective[23]. Legal Matters - The group is involved in a lawsuit to recover approximately RMB 340,000,000 in unpaid receivables, with a court ruling on December 28, 2024, ordering Chengdu Evergrande to pay approximately RMB 136,300,000[69].

Core Viewpoint - Despite announcing a collaboration with Novo Nordisk for the weight loss drug UBT251, the stock price of Federated Pharmaceutical fell significantly due to disappointing financial results for 2024, which showed a decline in net profit [3][4]. Financial Performance - Federated Pharmaceutical reported a revenue of 13.76 billion RMB for 2024, a slight increase of 0.14% year-on-year [7]. - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.66 billion RMB, reflecting a decrease of 1.54% compared to the previous year [7]. - The earnings per share decreased by 1.5% to 146.39 RMB [5]. Business Segments - Revenue from intermediate products increased by 1.8%, while revenue from raw materials and formulation products decreased by 0.5% and 5.9%, respectively [7]. - The significant decline in the formulation business was attributed to price reductions due to national drug procurement policies, alongside a 26.6% increase in R&D expenses for formulation products [7]. Key Product Developments - The UBT251 drug, developed by Federated Pharmaceutical, is currently in early clinical development and aims to treat obesity and type 2 diabetes [3][9]. - The company is the first in China and the second globally to have a long-acting GLP-1/GIP/GCG tri-target agonist approved for clinical trials using chemical synthesis methods [9]. - Sales of diabetes products reached 1.25 billion RMB in 2024, marking a 9.5% increase year-on-year, with insulin product sales benefiting from a significant increase in procurement volume [8].

Financial Performance - The total revenue for the year 2024 was approximately RMB 13,758.9 million, showing a slight increase of 0.1% compared to 2023[3] - The profit attributable to the company's owners for 2024 was RMB 2,659.7 million, reflecting a decrease of 1.5% year-on-year[3] - The basic earnings per share for 2024 were RMB 146.39, down 1.5% from the previous year[3] - The gross profit for 2024 was RMB 6,082,391 thousand, down from RMB 6,334,837 thousand in 2023, indicating a decrease of about 3.98%[14] - The company achieved a net profit of RMB 2,657,821 thousand for 2024, compared to RMB 2,700,845 thousand in 2023, reflecting a decline of approximately 1.6%[14] - The company’s net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was RMB 2,659,704,000, a slight decrease from RMB 2,701,350,000 in 2023, representing a decline of about 1.5%[46] - The company reported a pre-tax profit of RMB 3,288,898 thousand for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, compared to RMB 3,344,148 thousand in 2023, reflecting a decrease of about 1.66%[35] - The total tax expenses for 2024 amounted to RMB 631,077,000, compared to RMB 643,303,000 in 2023, reflecting a decrease of approximately 1.9%[41] Dividends and Shareholder Returns - The company declared a total annual dividend of RMB 56.0 per share, an increase of 7.7% compared to the previous year, with a payout ratio of 38.3%[5] - The company declared a total dividend of RMB 726,733,000 for the year ending December 31, 2024, slightly lower than RMB 726,811,000 in 2023[44] Research and Development - The company has 8 Class 1 new drug projects in clinical stages, including several high-value products, and is actively advancing its R&D efforts[6] - The company has entered into an exclusive licensing agreement with Novo Nordisk for the self-developed product UBT251, marking a significant milestone in its R&D progress[12] - R&D expenses for the year amounted to RMB 890,757 thousand, up from RMB 757,248 thousand in 2023, indicating an increase of approximately 17.6%[38] - The company invested approximately RMB 985,500,000 in drug research and development, with R&D expenses increasing by 21.9% year-on-year[68] - The company has established a comprehensive R&D system, including multiple platforms for biological, chemical, and innovative drug research, as well as clinical studies and external collaborations[68] - The company has initiated several key clinical trials for new drugs, including TUL01101 and UBT251, with significant milestones achieved in 2024[69] Market Expansion and Strategic Initiatives - The company has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with New Zealand Riverland Foods Ltd. to enter the high-end pet food market in China[9] - The company has obtained 6 overseas registration approvals for its animal health products and aims to expand its market presence in Southeast Asia, Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa[9] - The company achieved record overseas revenue in its intermediates and raw materials business, enhancing its global brand recognition[10] - The company plans to enhance its core industry advantages and strengthen vertical integration while optimizing its diversified business layout and resource allocation to accelerate international market expansion[12] - The company aims to maintain its leading position in the industry amidst ongoing healthcare reforms and demographic changes in China, which are expected to drive market growth[12] Financial Position and Assets - The total assets as of December 31, 2024, amounted to RMB 17,060,503 thousand, an increase from RMB 14,390,448 thousand in 2023, showing a growth of about 18.6%[15] - The company’s cash and cash equivalents rose to RMB 6,329,841 thousand in 2024, up from RMB 4,261,989 thousand in 2023, marking an increase of approximately 48.5%[15] - The company’s total equity increased to RMB 14,435,240 thousand in 2024 from RMB 12,747,618 thousand in 2023, reflecting a growth of about 13.2%[17] - The company’s total assets increased to approximately RMB 25,833,100,000, compared to RMB 21,017,200,000 in 2023, while total liabilities rose to RMB 11,397,800,000 from RMB 8,269,600,000[74] Operational Efficiency - The company reported a decrease in selling and distribution expenses to RMB 1,402,483 thousand in 2024 from RMB 1,593,799 thousand in 2023, a reduction of approximately 11.97%[14] - The company’s financial costs decreased to RMB 34,958 thousand in 2024 from RMB 66,896 thousand in 2023, a reduction of approximately 47.8%[40] - The company’s employee costs, including director remuneration, rose to RMB 1,827,993,000 in 2024 from RMB 1,648,745,000 in 2023, an increase of about 10.9%[44] - The inventory cost recognized in expenses for 2024 was RMB 7,692,205,000, compared to RMB 7,361,854,000 in 2023, representing an increase of approximately 4.5%[44] Corporate Governance and Compliance - The group has adopted revised Hong Kong Financial Reporting Standards effective from January 1, 2024, which include HKFRS 16 regarding lease liabilities and HKAS 1 for classifying liabilities as current or non-current[20] - The group has retrospectively applied new accounting policies for classifying liabilities as current or non-current, with no significant impact on the consolidated financial statements[23] - The company has adopted and complied with the corporate governance code as per the Stock Exchange Listing Rules, with a commitment to high standards of corporate governance[81] - There is currently no Chief Executive Officer, and the company plans to appoint one at an appropriate time[82] - The audit committee, consisting of three independent non-executive directors, reviewed the consolidated financial statements for the year ending December 31, 2024[84] Legal Matters - The company is involved in a lawsuit to recover approximately RMB 340,000,000 in unpaid receivables from Chengdu Evergrande, with a court ruling on December 18, 2024, ordering payment of approximately RMB 136,300,000[78]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Federal Pharmaceutical (03933 HK) with a "Buy" rating [2][3] Core Investment Thesis - Federal Pharmaceutical is a leading player in the penicillin-based antibiotics sector, benefiting from the current high industry demand [1] - The company has a well-established presence in the insulin and GLP-1 markets, with a robust pipeline including the innovative triple-target UBT251, which has global rights and is in advanced clinical stages [1] - The animal health business is poised to become a second growth driver, with three new production bases expected to alleviate capacity constraints [1] - The company has implemented an equity incentive plan in 2023, granting 12 0969 million shares, which is expected to enhance group cohesion [1] Antibiotics Business - Federal Pharmaceutical is the global leader in penicillin intermediates, with a nearly 50% market share in 6-APA production [1] - The company's 6-APA production is supported by high environmental barriers, ensuring stable competition [1] - In H1 2024, the company's intermediate revenue increased by 25 4% to RMB 1 314 billion, while API revenue rose by 1 2% to RMB 3 464 billion [1] - The company is expanding into higher-value sterile APIs, with a RMB 1 2 billion project in Gaolan Port expected to commence production in 2025 [1] Insulin and GLP-1 Pipeline - Federal Pharmaceutical has a comprehensive pipeline in the diabetes and weight loss sector, with 44 R&D projects, including GLP-1 products like liraglutide and semaglutide [2] - The company's UBT251, a triple-target GLP-1/GIP/GCG agonist, is the first in China and second globally to enter clinical trials using chemical synthesis [2] - The company's insulin products, including U40, U100, and premixed insulins, have secured favorable positions in national procurement, with a 52 5% increase in procurement volume [2] Animal Health Business - The animal health business has shown rapid growth, with a CAGR of 75% from 2020 to 2023 [2] - The company's core products in the animal health sector are primarily antibiotic formulations, leveraging its expertise in antibiotics [2] - Three new production bases are expected to be operational by the end of 2024, with a combined output value exceeding RMB 5 billion [2] - The pet drug segment is a key focus, with over 40 pet drugs in the pipeline, including five Class 1 new veterinary drugs [2] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of RMB 3 095 billion, RMB 3 513 billion, and RMB 3 892 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2] - The corresponding P/E ratios are projected at 4 8x, 4 2x, and 3 8x for the same periods [2] Industry Overview - The global antibiotics market is projected to reach USD 57 billion by 2024, with China being the largest consumer [29] - The industry faces strict regulatory controls, with limited new capacity additions due to environmental barriers [30] - Federal Pharmaceutical holds a dominant position in the 6-APA market, with a 45% market share, followed by Chia Tai Tianqing and CSPC Pharmaceutical [34]