Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [4][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the broad housing demand in China has bottomed out, but the price and volume have not entered a positive cycle as expected. The real estate industry faces challenges from weakened household balance sheets and policy constraints requiring high-quality development without overall leverage [4][5][6]. - The "Good House" policy is seen as a potential breakthrough strategy that could lead to a fivefold positive resonance in core cities, gradually achieving a recovery driven by structural improvements [4][5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Status: Challenges in Real Estate Fundamentals and Policy Constraints - Broad housing demand is estimated to have bottomed out, with total transactions stabilizing around 1.4 billion square meters [15][22]. - New home sales have decreased from 1.57 billion square meters in 2021 to an estimated 0.81 billion square meters in 2024, a cumulative decline of 48%, while second-hand home sales have increased by 64% during the same period [15][22]. - The key issue in the real estate sector is not demand but purchasing power, with a trend of consumption downgrade evident in the market [22][31]. 2. Breakthrough Strategy: "Good House" Policy Leading to Fivefold Positive Resonance - The "Good House" policy aims to create new products and markets, enhancing the price system under conditions of supply scarcity and relatively abundant demand [4][6]. - The report identifies five positive resonances: policy strength of "Good House," urban renewal, housing consumption upgrade, wealth reallocation under capital controls, and stock market strength [4][6]. - Potential benefits include expected further reductions in mortgage rates and loosening of purchase restrictions, which could drive improvements in core cities [4][6]. 3. Core Cities: Hong Kong Has Reversed, Shanghai and Other Core Cities Nearing Bottom - Hong Kong's real estate market has experienced a turnaround due to four positive factors, including talent policies and stock market gains [4][6]. - Other core cities like Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen are also showing signs of improvement, with Shanghai expected to be the next city to see a bottoming out [4][6]. 4. Investment Analysis Opinion: "Good House" as a Breakthrough Strategy - The report emphasizes that the "Good House" policy could lead to a structural recovery in the real estate market, benefiting quality real estate companies positioned in core cities [4][5][6]. - Recommended companies include those with strong product capabilities and undervalued recovery potential, as well as second-hand housing intermediaries and property management firms [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6]. Core Insights - Shenzhen has followed Beijing and Shanghai in relaxing purchase restrictions, with a more significant impact expected compared to the latter cities [11]. - The overall performance of the real estate sector has lagged behind the broader market, with the Shenwan Real Estate Index down 1.5% this week, ranking 24th among 31 sectors [12]. - New home sales in 30 cities totaled 1.488 million square meters this week, reflecting a 17.9% decrease month-on-month and an 11.2% decrease year-on-year [23]. - The report emphasizes the importance of policy-driven changes in the real estate market, suggesting that the current policy environment is more robust than in previous cycles [4]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Development - Shenzhen's new policy has narrowed the scope of purchase restrictions, with only specific areas remaining under strict limits [11]. - The report anticipates that the marginal effects of Shenzhen's new policy will be more pronounced than those in Beijing and Shanghai [11]. Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index has decreased by 1.5%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.67 percentage points [12]. - A total of 49 stocks in the real estate sector increased in value this week, while 62 stocks declined [12]. New Home and Second-Hand Home Transactions - New home sales in first-tier cities increased by 4.4% month-on-month, while second-tier cities saw a 23.3% decrease [23]. - Second-hand home transactions in 14 sample cities totaled 1.719 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 13.0% [34]. Credit Bonds - Eight credit bonds were issued by real estate companies this week, totaling 8.69 billion yuan, with a net financing amount of -1.24 billion yuan [42]. - The majority of bonds issued were rated AAA, indicating a strong credit quality among issuers [42]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate stocks due to the expected policy-driven recovery and the early-cycle nature of the real estate market [4]. - Recommended companies include major players in both A-shares and H-shares, as well as local state-owned enterprises and property management firms [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector [1] Core Views - The relaxation of purchase restrictions in Shenzhen has led to a month-on-month increase in new home transactions, while year-on-year sales remain lower [1][8] - The report highlights that the real estate market is in a recovery phase, with ongoing policy support expected to bolster demand [8] - Key companies with strong financials and performance are recommended for investment, including Yuexiu Property, China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and others [8] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index fell by 1.48%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index, which declined by 0.81% [5][13] 2. Industry Fundamentals - For the week of August 29 to September 4, new home sales in 38 monitored cities totaled 25,688 units, a year-on-year decrease of 10.4% but a month-on-month increase of 5.3% [6][21] - The total transaction area for new homes was 2.425 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 17.7% and a month-on-month increase of 5.3% [6][21] - In the same period, second-hand home sales in 16 monitored cities reached 15,607 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 5% but a month-on-month decrease of 13.3% [6][38] 3. Land Market Analysis - Land supply for the week was 36.101 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 29.3%, with an average price of 1,808 yuan per square meter [7] - Land transactions totaled 23.902 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 43% and a transaction value of 30.78 billion yuan, up 61.7% year-on-year [7] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on financially stable leading real estate companies that can effectively navigate market fluctuations, as well as property management firms that may see performance recovery [8]

Core Insights - The report from the China Index Academy highlights the expansion of the top 50 property service companies in China, with a total new contract area of approximately 54.9 million square meters in August 2025, averaging 1.1 million square meters per company [1][2]. Group 1: Top 50 Companies by New Contract Area - China Resources Vientiane Life Co., Ltd., Shanghai Yongsheng Property Management Co., Ltd., and Shimao Service Holdings Co., Ltd. are leading the expansion, each exceeding 5 million square meters in new contract area [1][2]. - The average new contract area for the top 50 companies is 1.1 million square meters, indicating a robust growth trend in the property service sector [1][2]. Group 2: Third-Party Market Expansion - The total third-party market expansion area for the top 50 property service companies reached 47.14 million square meters in August 2025, with an average of 940,000 square meters per company [6][7]. - Shanghai Yongsheng Property Management Co., Ltd. and China Resources Vientiane Life Co., Ltd. led the third-party market expansion with areas of 563,000 square meters and 557,000 square meters, respectively [6][7]. Group 3: Associated Area Analysis - The total area contracted from associated developers by the top 50 companies was approximately 9.86 million square meters, with an average of 200,000 square meters per company [12]. - Companies like Wuhan Urban Services Group Co., Ltd., China Overseas Property Management Co., Ltd., and Poly Property Services Co., Ltd. are expected to add over 700,000 square meters to their managed area due to support from parent companies [12]. Group 4: City Service Bidding - In August 2025, the top five companies in city service bidding included Shenzhen Jindi Property Management Co., Ltd. with a winning bid of 47.48 million yuan, followed by Shenzhen Xinghe Zhishan Life Co., Ltd. and China Overseas Property Management Co., Ltd. [13][14]. - The report notes significant wins in city service projects, particularly for Shenzhen Jindi Property Management Co., Ltd. in the public affairs center project in Pingshan District, Shenzhen [14].

FF301 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年8月31日 狀態: 新提交 呈交日期: 2025年9月2日 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 保利物業服務股份有限公司（於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司） I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 06049 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 347,000,090 | RMB | | 1 | RMB | | 347,000,090 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | RMB | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 347,000,090 | RMB | | 1 | RMB | | 347,0 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS has downgraded the rating of Poly Property (06049) to "Neutral" as the stock price has reached the target price set by the bank, indicating that the current risk-reward level has become average [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The latest target price for Poly Property has been slightly raised from HKD 36 to HKD 36.5 [1] - UBS has observed an increase in the area under management (GFA) contract cancellations in the first half of the year, suggesting that the company may need to terminate some projects with declining cash recovery rates or low profitability quality [1] Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The increase in contract cancellations is attributed to intensified competition in the property management industry and a general decline in property management fees [1] - If the trend of cancellations continues, it will exert pressure on revenue growth [1] Group 3: Revenue Forecast - UBS has revised down its revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 by 2% to 5% [1] - However, it is believed that reductions in sales and administrative expenses will offset the impact of the revenue decline [1]

Group 1 - UBS downgraded the rating of Poly Property (06049) to "Neutral" as the stock price has reached the target price set by the bank, indicating that the current risk-reward level has become average [1] - The new target price has been slightly raised from HKD 36 to HKD 36.5 [1] - The bank observed an increase in the termination of managed area (GFA) contracts in the first half of the year, suggesting that the company may have to terminate some projects with declining cash recovery rates or low profitability quality due to intensified competition in the property management industry and a general decline in management fees [1] Group 2 - If the termination situation continues to increase, it will exert pressure on revenue growth [1] - The bank has revised down its revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 by 2% to 5%, but believes that a reduction in selling and administrative expenses will offset the impact [1]

Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 8.4 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing an 8% year-on-year growth, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 900 million yuan, which is a 5% increase compared to the previous year [1] Group 1: Property Management Business - The property management business generated revenue of 6.3 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a 13.1% year-on-year increase, with residential, commercial, and public service revenues at 3.6 billion, 1.1 billion, and 1.6 billion yuan respectively [2] - The gross margin for the property management business was 16.6%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company operates in 191 cities with 2,912 projects under management, covering an area of 830 million square meters, and has a total of 3,269 contracted projects covering 1 billion square meters [2] Group 2: Community Value-Added Services - Revenue from community value-added services was 1.2 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, showing a slight decline, while the gross margin improved to 39.9%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The community life service revenue accounted for 77% of the total community value-added services, while community asset management services made up 23% [3] - The company focused on high-quality cities, with new contract amounts from the core 50 cities accounting for 84.6%, a growth of 5.1 percentage points year-on-year [3] Group 3: Investment Outlook - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits attributable to shareholders of 1.6 billion and 1.7 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.85 and 3.05 yuan [3] - The price-to-earnings ratio based on the latest stock price is projected to be 10.9 and 10.2 times for 2025 and 2026 respectively [3]

Core Viewpoint - Poly Property's (06049) net profit for the first half of the year increased by 5.3% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [1] - Total revenue rose by 6.6% year-on-year, indicating strong growth in third-party expansion [1] Financial Performance - The company's third-party expansion showed robust growth, while non-owner value-added service revenue decreased by 16.1% year-on-year [1] - Community value-added services also experienced a decline of 3.7% [1] Investment Rating - The firm maintains a "Buy" rating for Poly Property, with a target price increase of 2%, from HKD 54.03 to HKD 54.91 [1] - Despite the positive outlook, the company has chosen not to declare an interim dividend, which did not meet some investors' expectations [1] Dividend Policy - The company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio by 10 percentage points to 50% for the fiscal year 2024, but this remains relatively low compared to peers [1]

Core Viewpoint - Poly Property's (06049) net profit for the first half of the year increased by 5.3% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations; total revenue rose by 6.6% [1] Financial Performance - The company's third-party expansion showed strong growth, while non-owner value-added service revenue decreased by 16.1% year-on-year; community value-added services fell by 3.7% [1] Investment Rating - The firm maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price increase of 2%, from HKD 54.03 to HKD 54.91 [1] Dividend Policy - The company continues its policy of not declaring an interim dividend, which did not meet some investors' expectations; although the dividend payout ratio for the fiscal year 2024 is set to increase by 10 percentage points to 50%, it remains relatively low compared to peers [1]