证券研究报告·行业深度报告·房地产服务 房地产服务行业深度报告 "三问物业行业"系列报告之三——不谋长 远者，无以图当下 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2025 年 05 月 23 日 证券分析师 房诚琦 执业证书：S0600522100002 fangcq@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -33% -28% -23% -18% -13% -8% -3% 2% 7% 12% 17% 2024/5/23 2024/9/21 2025/1/20 2025/5/21 房地产服务 沪深300 相关研究 《长风破浪会有时——物业公司2024 年年报的四大预测》 2025-03-02 《"三问物业行业"系列报告之二—— 转机、风险与分红》 2024-09-18 东吴证券研究所 1 / 27 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 中长期维度物业公司的增长来源于什么？我们认为主要依靠几点：1） 高质量的第三方外拓。无论是央国企还是民企，中长期的收入增长的来 源和保障为第三方外拓项目的获取，高质量外拓项目获取能力的差异决 定了未来公司收入增速中枢的高低。2）毛利率的企稳回升。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，5月22日，克而瑞物管发布2025中国物业管理上市公司研究成果。2024年63家上市物企营收总额2938.7亿元，同比增长4%。营业收入均 值和中位数分别为46.65亿元和17.4亿元，同比增长4.0%和11.3%。均值和中位数的差异由2023年的29.22亿元增加至2024年的29.25亿元。 资本市场表现 行业调整仍在继续，国央企优势明显 (一)板块指数：物业板块走势依旧弱于大盘，与地产板块同频共振，年内两次冲高回落 2024年，国内外经济环境依然复杂多变，全球经济增长面临诸多挑战。物业行业内部也面临着结构调整和转型升级的迫切需求。企业需要进一步优化服务模 式，提升运营效率，降低成本，以应对市场下行压力。 资本市场上的相关指标也清晰反映了物业行业的困境。恒生物业服务及管理指数的持续下滑，5月，地产"5.17"政策出台，如同给市场注入一剂强心针，物 业股跟随地产股一同反弹。10月，央行等多部门联合行动，为资本市场注入流动性，物业股平均股价顺势攀升。随着政策效应逐渐消散，股价再度回落，截 至2024年末，恒生港股通物业服务及管理指数收于1690.56点，年内下跌5.8%，较恒生指数落后26 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a belief in potential recovery despite current weaknesses in investment and sales [4][22][36]. Core Insights - The investment and sales sectors are both experiencing declines, with a focus on stabilizing the market as the main policy direction. The report anticipates that the recovery in investment will be slower than in previous cycles [4][21][36]. - The report highlights that the sales sector is currently in a bottoming phase, with expectations for policy support to drive demand recovery. However, supply constraints may limit sales recovery in the short term [4][36]. Investment Analysis Summary Investment Sector - From January to April 2025, real estate development investment totaled 27,730 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3%, with April alone seeing an 11.3% decline [5][21]. - New construction and completion rates also fell significantly, with new starts down 23.8% and completions down 16.9% year-on-year [21][22]. - The report predicts a continued weak investment environment, with forecasts for 2025 indicating a 9.9% decline in investment, 9.7% in new starts, and 22.6% in completions [4][21]. Sales Sector - The total sales area for real estate from January to April 2025 was 280 million square meters, down 2.8% year-on-year, with April sales area declining by 2.1% [22][36]. - The total sales revenue for the same period was 2.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a 3.2% decrease year-on-year, with April alone seeing a 6.7% drop [22][36]. - The average selling price of properties decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, indicating a challenging pricing environment [35][36]. Funding Sector - Total funding sources for real estate development amounted to 3.3 trillion yuan from January to April 2025, down 4.1% year-on-year, with a 5.3% decline in April alone [37][39]. - Domestic loans showed a positive trend with a 0.8% increase year-on-year, while self-raised funds and other sources saw declines [37][39]. - The report suggests that while funding conditions are expected to improve gradually due to policy easing, the overall funding environment remains tight [4][37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector [1] Core Insights - The central government has issued policies to promote urban renewal, aiming to stabilize the real estate market and foster healthy development. There is a noticeable sales differentiation among cities of varying tiers, with first-tier cities performing significantly better than second and third-tier cities [8][14] - The report highlights that while overall sales of new and second-hand homes have declined, the inventory cycle in key cities continues to decrease, indicating a potential recovery in demand [8][14] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index fell by 0.31%, while the CSI 300 Index rose by 1.12%, resulting in a relative return of -1.43%, indicating weaker performance compared to the broader market [2][12] 2. Industry Fundamentals - For the week of May 9-15, 2025, the total transaction of new homes in 38 key cities was 24,616 units, a year-on-year decrease of 11.2% but a month-on-month increase of 72.9%. The total transaction area was 2.608 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 13% and a month-on-month increase of 69.1% [4][21] - In the same week, the total transaction of second-hand homes in 16 key cities was 20,827 units, a year-on-year decrease of 8.5% and a month-on-month increase of 88.9%. The total transaction area was 1.99 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 6% and a month-on-month increase of 87% [4][33] 3. Market Dynamics - The inventory of commercial housing in 17 key cities was 187.874 million square meters, with a month-on-month growth rate of 0% and a de-stocking cycle of 146.7 weeks. The land supply for the week was 1.585 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 43.4% [5] - The total issuance of credit bonds by real estate companies was 4.184 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 69.39% but a month-on-month decrease of 27.49% [5] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on financially stable and well-performing leading real estate companies such as Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and Yuexiu Property, which are expected to effectively respond to market fluctuations under the current policy environment [8][14]

在4月24日观点指数研究院发布的《外商受鼓励进入 | 2025年4月物业服务发展报告》中，我们发现，以 过去一年观点指数样本物业企业的各项指标综合来看，行业面临规模和营收增长持续放缓、盈利水平下 滑、增值业务面临挑战、在手现金总体下降等情况；物业企业需依靠战略转变及数字化提质获得市场的 发展机遇，亦需要在经营发展与资金回笼之间寻求平衡。 观点指数过往一年，随着物企普遍注重项目拓展领域的质量和效益，强调聚焦核心区域，优势业态和优 质客户，叠加业内存量竞争加剧，行业规模增长呈现出持续放缓的态势。 据统计，2024年53家样本上市物企在管总建筑面积约为76.24亿平方米，较2024年中期的75.05亿平方米 仅增长1.6%；共计11家物企在管面积出现下滑，占比20.75%。同时，43家物企公布的合约总面积约为 69.91亿平方米，同比增长率为4.20%，共计15家物企合约面积下滑，占比为35%。 随着市场化发展能力的不断强化，部分物企多业态拓展成效正在显现。统计显示，25家样本物企中有11 家的非住物管收入占基础物管收入的比例超过40%，占比为44%。不过总体来看，头部物企的非住业态 规模优势更明显，例如招商积余、 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中指物业研究发布的数据显示，2025年4月，中国物业服务TOP50企业新增合约面积约5225万平方米，头部企业规模持续扩张；新增 合约面积均值为104万平方米。其中，华润万象生活有限公司、上海永升物业管理有限公司、招商局积余产业运营服务股份有限公司规模扩张迅速，新增 合约面积超过350万平方米。 | 排名 | 企业名称 | 新增合约面积 (万平方米) | | --- | --- | --- | | | 华润万象生活有限公司 | 570 | | | 上海永升物业管理有限公司 | 475 | | ਤ | 招商局积余产业运营服务股份有限公司 | 370 | | 4 | 保利物业服务股份有限公司 | 311 | | 5 | 江苏银河物业管理有限公司 | 273 | | 6 | 绿城物业服务集团有限公司 | 250 | | | 碧桂园生活服务集团股份有限公司 | 207 | | | 金科智慧服务集团股份有限公司 | 199 | | ರ | 金茂物业服务发展股份有限公司 | 190 | | 10 | 龙湖物业服务集团有限公司 | 172 | | 11 | 中海物业管理有限公司 | 154 | | 12 ...

Core Viewpoint - CICC has downgraded the 2025 profit forecast for Poly Property (06049) by 6% to HKD 1.55 billion, reflecting a 5% year-on-year growth, while introducing a 2026 profit forecast of HKD 1.62 billion, also a 5% year-on-year growth. The target price has been reduced by 9% to HKD 38.6, indicating a 25% upside potential based on a 13x target P/E for 2025 [1] Group 1 - The bidding expansion strategy is expected to drive stable growth in the core property management segment, with a projected annual contract value of new third-party projects in 2024 at HKD 3.01 billion, remaining flat year-on-year. The commercial and public service sectors are expected to see a 13% year-on-year increase in contract value to HKD 2.75 billion [2] - The overall revenue growth rate for the core property management segment is anticipated to exceed 10%, with third-party project revenue growth potentially outpacing the overall growth [2] Group 2 - In the value-added services segment, non-owner value-added income may face pressure due to the current real estate market conditions and short-term challenges in office leasing. However, there is potential growth in community maintenance and elevator maintenance services. The company has shifted its strategy from a broad product range to focusing on core products, leading to a slight decline in overall revenue [3] - By 2025, the adjustment in business layout is expected to conclude, stabilizing profitability in community value-added services [3] Group 3 - The company reported a net operating cash flow of HKD 2.3 billion in 2024, with a coverage ratio of 1.6 times against net profit attributable to shareholders. This is expected to provide support for operating cash flow in 2025 [4] - The dividend payout ratio is set to increase by 10 percentage points to 50% in 2024, reflecting the management's commitment to shareholder returns. The company aims to enhance operational quality while steadily optimizing its dividend mechanism [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Poly Property (06049.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in revenue and profit, with a notable increase in the dividend payout ratio to 50%. The management expects a recovery in profitability following business optimization adjustments [5][6] - The revenue for 2024 reached 16.34 billion HKD, representing an 8.5% year-on-year increase, while the net profit was 1.47 billion HKD, up 6.8% year-on-year. However, gross and net profit margins have slightly declined [6] - The property management revenue grew by 15.0% year-on-year to 11.67 billion HKD, accounting for 71.4% of total revenue, despite a slight decrease in gross margin [7] - The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts for 2025-2026 and introduced new estimates for 2027, projecting net profits of 1.58 billion, 1.72 billion, and 1.88 billion HKD for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][9] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company reported a revenue of 163.42 billion HKD, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5%. The net profit was 14.74 billion HKD, reflecting a 6.8% increase. The gross margin was 18.3%, down 1.3 percentage points, and the net margin was 9.1%, down 0.2 percentage points [6][9] - The company’s cash and bank balance stood at 11.87 billion HKD at the end of 2024, a 7.8% increase year-on-year, with trade receivables rising by 4.8 billion HKD [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 2.86 HKD, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.9 times [5][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the increasing importance of real estate strategies, emphasizing the need for quality housing supply and urban renewal initiatives to stabilize the market [4][32]. - Recent policies aim to enhance the real estate market's stability, with a focus on optimizing existing housing stock and promoting high-quality housing [32][33]. Industry Data Summary New Housing Transactions - In the week of April 19-25, 2025, 34 key cities recorded a total new housing transaction volume of 206.4 million square meters, reflecting an 8.4% week-on-week increase [5]. - Year-on-year, April's new housing transactions in these cities decreased by 21.2% compared to the same period last year [7][8]. Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the same week, second-hand housing transactions in 13 key cities totaled 142.4 million square meters, marking a 6.5% increase from the previous week [13]. - Cumulatively, second-hand housing transactions for April showed a 1.5% year-on-year increase [13]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of April 19-25, 2025, 15 key cities launched 121 million square meters of new housing, with a sales-to-launch ratio of 0.68, indicating ongoing inventory reduction [23]. - The total available residential area in these cities reached 89.5 million square meters, with an average absorption period of 23.2 months [23]. Policy and News Tracking - The report notes that the central government is reinforcing economic stability measures, including urban renewal and high-quality housing supply [32][33]. - Local governments are implementing targeted policies, such as tax subsidies for home purchases in specific regions [33][35]. Company Performance Overview - The report provides a snapshot of key companies' performances, indicating mixed results with some companies like Lujiazui showing revenue growth of 33% in 2024, while others like Tianjian Group experienced a 21% revenue decline [39]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw Lujiazui's revenue increase by 41% year-on-year, reflecting a positive trend in the company's performance [39].

内容概要：城市服务是指向地方政府、公共机构及物业开发商提供市政城市服务，以改善市民生活体验 和环境。近年来，随着城市化进程、新型城镇化建设的加快和居民生活水平的提高，我国房地产在政策 支持下市场需求整体稳定，居民对物业公司提供的资产和生活服务需求不断增加，城市服务行业规模稳 步扩大。2024年我国城市服务市场规模增长至15455亿元，其中，公共物业服务规模为1344.3亿元，城 市环卫服务规模增为2977.5亿元，城市园林绿化服务规模为1757.8亿元，其他城市服务规模增长至 9375.4亿元。预计2025年我国城市服务市场规模将达16380亿元。随着城市化进程加快、数字技术升级 和消费需求多元化的推进，城市服务行业的市场需求总体呈增长趋势，并从"传统人力驱动"向"科技+数 据驱动"转型，未来将更加智能化、绿色化和平台化。 上市企业：碧桂园服务（06098）、保利物业（06049）、招商积余（001914）、雅生活服务 （3319.HK） 相关企业：万物云、龙湖创智生活、明德物业 关键词：城市服务市场规模、城市服务市场竞争格局、城市服务代表企业经营现状、城市服务行业发展 前景、碧桂园服务经营现状、保利物业经营 ...