Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [1] Core Views - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development is promoting new urban renewal initiatives, leading to a significant increase in sales on a month-over-month basis despite a year-over-year decline [6] - The report highlights that while sales remain down year-over-year, the recent policies are expected to stabilize the market and improve the performance of financially sound real estate companies [6] Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index fell by 2.35%, while the CSI 300 Index decreased by 2.22%, indicating underperformance of the sector compared to the broader market [3][11] Industry Fundamentals - For the week of October 10-16, 38 tracked cities saw a total of 27,488 new homes sold, a year-over-year decline of 19.1% but a month-over-month increase of 257.2% [4][20] - The total transaction area for new homes was 2.804 million square meters, with a year-over-year decrease of 23.3% and a month-over-month increase of 281.4% [4][20] - In the same week, 16 tracked cities recorded 20,896 second-hand homes sold, down 16% year-over-year but up 459.8% month-over-month [35][38] Land Market Supply and Transactions - Land supply for the week was 1,426.4 million square meters, a year-over-year decrease of 70.1%, with an average price of 1,659 yuan per square meter, down 3.9% year-over-year [5] - Land transactions totaled 1,707 million square meters, with a year-over-year increase of 19.4% and a transaction value of 25.88 billion yuan, down 36.3% year-over-year [5] Financing Analysis - Real estate companies issued a total of 5.49 billion yuan in credit bonds, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 35.64% but a month-over-month increase of 1,272.5% [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on financially stable leading real estate companies such as Yuexiu Property, China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and others, which are expected to effectively navigate market fluctuations [6] - Property management companies are also anticipated to benefit from performance and valuation recovery as market demand rebounds [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [2][10]. Core Insights - The real estate sector continues to face a sluggish fundamental environment, with performance under pressure in the short term. However, there are signs of potential recovery in the future, albeit at a slow pace [4][2]. - The report anticipates that the performance of the real estate sector will remain under pressure in Q3 2025 due to declining sales and low profit margins, but a gradual recovery is expected in 2025-2026 [4][2]. - The government is emphasizing policies to stabilize the real estate market, including urban renewal initiatives and easing purchase restrictions in major cities [4][2]. Summary by Sections Performance Expectations - The report predicts that the performance of the real estate sector will continue to be challenged in Q3 2025, primarily due to a decline in sales since 2021 and low profit margins driven by previous price cuts [4][2]. - Sales data shows that the top 50 real estate companies experienced a cumulative sales area decline of 25% year-on-year in Q1-Q3 2025, with significant monthly declines in July to September [4][2]. Company Performance Forecast - The report categorizes major companies based on their expected net profit growth for Q1-Q3 2025: - Companies with growth >+15%: Binjiang Group - Companies with growth between 0% and +15%: China Merchants Jinling - Companies with growth between -15% and 0%: China Merchants Shekou - Companies with growth between -30% and -15%: Jianfa Co., New Town Holdings - Companies with growth <=-30%: Poly Developments, Huafa Group [7][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on new opportunities in the real estate sector, particularly in "good housing" policies and the revaluation of commercial real estate. Specific companies are highlighted for investment: - Good housing companies: Jianfa International, Binjiang Group, China Resources Land, Greentown China, China Jinmao, Jianfa Co. - Commercial real estate and undervalued companies: New Town Holdings, Yuexiu Property, China Merchants Shekou, Longfor Group, China Overseas Development, Poly Developments, Huafa Group [4][2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the current real estate policies are under pressure from the fundamental market conditions, suggesting that the policy response may exceed the measures taken in 2008 and 2014 [4] - Real estate is viewed as an early-cycle indicator, making it a key economic barometer [4] - The competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private companies performing well in land acquisition and sales [4] - The report continues to favor investment in first-tier and select second- and third-tier cities, which have shown better performance during sales rebounds [4] - Supply-side policies, including land storage and management of idle land, are critical areas to monitor for future developments [4] Summary by Sections New Housing Transactions - In the week covering the National Day holiday, new housing transaction volume in 30 cities was 835,000 square meters, down 55.3% week-on-week and 53.4% year-on-year [11] - The decline in new housing transactions is attributed to a combination of last year's high base and the current market's sluggishness [11][12] - The report anticipates continued pressure on year-on-year data for the fourth quarter due to elevated bases from the previous year [11] Secondary Housing Transactions - In the same week, secondary housing transactions in 14 sample cities totaled 843,000 square meters, reflecting a 27.9% decrease week-on-week and a 47.9% decrease year-on-year [21] - Year-to-date, secondary housing transactions have reached 80.2 million square meters, showing a 16.1% increase compared to the previous year [21] Market Performance - The report notes that the Shenwan Real Estate Index decreased by 0.8%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.30 percentage points, ranking 23rd among 31 Shenwan primary industries [32] - The report identifies a total of 64 stocks that increased in value during the week, while 43 stocks decreased [32] Credit Bond Issuance - During the week, two credit bonds were issued by real estate companies, totaling 940 million yuan, a decrease of 11.28 billion yuan from the previous week [3]

FF301 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年9月30日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年10月3日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 06049 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 347,000,090 | RMB | | | 1 RMB | | 347,000,090 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | RMB | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 347,000,090 | RMB | | | 1 RMB | | 347,000,090 | | 2. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | | 其他類 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4] Core Views - The current monetary policy stance in China is supportive, with measures to optimize down payment ratios and mortgage rates, potentially reducing interest expenses for over 50 million households by approximately 300 billion yuan annually [10][11] - The real estate sector is viewed as an early-cycle indicator, making it a key economic barometer [4] - The competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private companies expected to benefit more in the future [4] - The report emphasizes a focus on first-tier and select second- and third-tier cities, which have shown better performance during sales rebounds [4] - Supply-side policies, including land storage and management of idle land, are critical areas to monitor for future developments [4] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The real estate index decreased by 0.2% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.22 percentage points, ranking 11th among 31 sectors [12] - In the past week, 30 cities recorded new housing transaction areas of 186.1 million square meters, a 20.0% increase month-on-month but a 23.6% decrease year-on-year [23] New Housing Transactions - New housing transaction areas in first-tier cities reached 55.8 million square meters, up 11.6% month-on-month and up 12.5% year-on-year [23] - Second-tier cities saw transactions of 91.0 million square meters, a 41.9% increase month-on-month but a 20.5% decrease year-on-year [23] - Third-tier cities recorded 39.2 million square meters, down 4.1% month-on-month and down 50.6% year-on-year [23] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - The total transaction area for second-hand housing in 14 sample cities was 198.9 million square meters, a 1.4% increase month-on-month and a 13.9% increase year-on-year [31] - Year-to-date, the cumulative transaction area for second-hand housing is 7,815.4 million square meters, reflecting a 17.3% increase year-on-year [31] Credit Bond Issuance - This week, 14 credit bonds were issued by real estate companies, totaling 14.781 billion yuan, a 67.61 billion yuan increase from the previous week [41] - The net financing amount was 4.562 billion yuan, marking a significant increase of 111.56 billion yuan from the previous week [41]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [3][4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the broad housing demand in China has reached a bottom, although the volume and price have not yet entered a positive cycle. It predicts that the overall real estate market will continue to stabilize, with policies aimed at stopping the decline and promoting recovery [3][4]. - The report highlights significant policy support, including over 1.6 trillion yuan allocated for three major projects to stabilize the real estate market and support the delivery of nearly 20 million housing units [31][32]. - The report emphasizes the emergence of a new development track driven by favorable housing policies, which will enhance the penetration of quality housing in core cities [3][4]. Industry Data Summary New Housing Transactions - For the week of September 20-26, 2025, new housing transactions in 34 key cities totaled 2.458 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 17.2%. The transaction volume in first and second-tier cities rose by 15.4%, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a significant increase of 43.8% [4][12]. - In September, the total transaction volume for new homes in 34 cities was 8.078 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [7][8]. Second-Hand Housing Transactions - For the week of September 20-26, 2025, second-hand housing transactions in 13 key cities totaled 1.148 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 3.8%. Cumulatively, September transactions were up 21.2% year-on-year [12][13]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of September 20-26, 2025, 15 key cities launched 1.48 million square meters of new housing, with a transaction volume of 950,000 square meters, resulting in a transaction-to-launch ratio of 0.64. The total available residential area in these cities was 90.309 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 0.6% [21][22]. Policy and News Tracking - The report notes that various local governments are implementing policies to stabilize the real estate market, including subsidies for home purchases and regulations to improve housing quality [31][32]. - Shanghai has introduced new regulations to standardize balcony measurements and support the renovation of old residential areas [31][32]. Company Dynamics - New City Holdings issued USD 1.6 billion in overseas bonds, while Poly Developments announced a plan to issue corporate bonds not exceeding 150 billion yuan [38][39]. - The report tracks significant financing activities, including guarantees provided by major companies for their subsidiaries [38][39].

Financial Performance - For the six months ended June 30, 2025, the company's revenue was RMB 8,392.0 million, an increase of approximately 6.6% from RMB 7,871.4 million in the same period of 2024[8]. - The gross profit for the same period was RMB 1,626.7 million, with a gross margin of 19.38%, down from 20.46% in 2024[8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 890.6 million, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 5.3% from RMB 846.0 million[8]. - Total revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2025, was approximately RMB 8,392.0 million, an increase of about 6.6% compared to RMB 7,871.4 million for the same period in 2024[32]. - The group's gross profit for the six months ended June 30, 2025, was approximately RMB 1,626.7 million, an increase of about 1.0% compared to RMB 1,610.1 million for the same period in 2024[35]. - The overall gross margin decreased from approximately 20.46% in 2024 to about 19.38% in 2025[35]. - The net profit for the six months ended June 30, 2025, was approximately RMB 904.0 million, an increase of about 5.8% compared to RMB 854.6 million in 2024[38]. - Basic and diluted earnings per share were both RMB 1.62, up from RMB 1.54, indicating a 5.2% increase[81]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from property management services accounted for approximately 75.4% of total revenue, amounting to RMB 6,324.8 million, a year-on-year increase of about 13.1%[13]. - The revenue from third-party projects amounted to RMB 2,778.4 million, a year-on-year increase of approximately 19.9%, accounting for 43.9% of total property management service revenue[18]. - The revenue from residential communities was approximately RMB 3,606.3 million, a year-on-year increase of about 10.2%[20]. - The revenue from commercial and office properties was approximately RMB 1,148.1 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 29.8%[21]. - The revenue from public and other properties was approximately RMB 1,570.3 million, a year-on-year increase of about 9.4%[22]. - Non-owner value-added services generated revenue of RMB 863.1 million, a decrease of 16.1% from RMB 1,028.2 million in 2024, representing 10.3% of total revenue[32]. - Community value-added services contributed RMB 1,204.1 million, down 3.7% from RMB 1,249.9 million in 2024, making up 14.3% of total revenue[32]. Assets and Liabilities - The total assets of the company as of June 30, 2025, were RMB 17,620.1 million, compared to RMB 16,781.2 million at the end of 2024[9]. - The company's equity totalled RMB 10,055.6 million, up from RMB 9,871.3 million at the end of 2024[9]. - The asset-liability ratio increased to 42.9% as of June 30, 2025, compared to 41.2% at the end of 2024[9]. - Current assets as of June 30, 2025, were approximately RMB 14,568.9 million, an increase of about 6.8% from RMB 13,636.0 million as of December 31, 2024[39]. - Trade receivables increased to approximately RMB 3,926.2 million, up about RMB 1,110.3 million from RMB 2,815.8 million as of December 31, 2024[43]. - The company's total liabilities decreased from RMB 9,701,014,000 as of December 31, 2024, to RMB 9,872,267,000 as of June 30, 2025, reflecting a slight increase of approximately 1.76%[87]. Management and Operations - The company managed a total contracted area of approximately 996.1 million square meters and an area under management of approximately 833.7 million square meters as of June 30, 2025[11]. - The company has expanded its management projects, with a total of 3,269 projects under management as of June 30, 2025, compared to 3,168 projects in 2024[14]. - The management area from third-party projects reached approximately 549.7 million square meters, accounting for 65.9% of the total management area[18]. - The average property management fee per unit has steadily increased due to improved pricing standards for new projects[23]. - The company plans to enhance growth momentum by focusing on core products and key markets, and will leverage data-driven strategies for market expansion[28]. - The company aims to integrate AI and robotics into property services to improve operational efficiency and service consistency[30]. Employee and Governance - Total employee costs for the six months ended June 30, 2025, were approximately RMB 1,646.8 million, with a workforce of 30,310 employees[55]. - The company does not recommend the distribution of an interim dividend for the six months ended June 30, 2025[57]. - The company has adopted a restricted stock incentive plan to attract and retain core employees, effective for ten years[62]. - The company has complied with all applicable provisions of the Corporate Governance Code during the reporting period[59]. Investments and Acquisitions - The company acquired 100% equity of Shanghai Jiansheng Property Service Co., Ltd. on February 21, 2025, to expand its related business[134]. - The total assets acquired in the acquisition amounted to RMB 22,902,000, with total liabilities of RMB 19,203,000, resulting in a net asset value of RMB 3,699,000[135]. - The goodwill generated from the acquisition was RMB 971,000, which is recognized under "intangible assets" in the financial statements[135]. Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the total number of shares issued by the company is 553,333,400, consisting of 206,333,310 domestic shares and 347,000,090 H shares[67]. - Major shareholders include China Poly Group Co., Ltd. holding 193,666,690 H shares, representing 55.81% of the H shares and 35.00% of the total issued shares[66]. - The company will disclose further details regarding the restricted share incentive plan in the annual report as per the Listing Rules[64].

Core Viewpoint - Hubei Baocheng Property Service Co., Ltd. has been established, indicating a potential expansion in the property management sector, with a focus on various service offerings [1] Company Summary - Hubei Baocheng Property Service Co., Ltd. is newly formed and is wholly owned by Poly Property [1] - The legal representative of the company is Yin Chao [1] Industry Summary - The company's business scope includes services such as designated driving, motor vehicle repair and maintenance, termite control, and pest control services [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that new housing transaction areas have shown a month-on-month increase, while real estate development investment has decreased year-on-year from January to August 2025 [3] - The report highlights that the decline in housing prices has been consistent since 2022, with a significant drop in both new and second-hand housing prices across 70 cities, although the rate of decline has started to narrow due to supportive policies [5][16] - It emphasizes that the relationship between population growth and housing prices is not straightforward, as effective housing demand driven by economic development and income growth is crucial for influencing prices [5][25] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The real estate market has entered a downward trend since 2022, with new and second-hand housing prices experiencing a decline for over 40 months [5][16] - As of August 2025, the new housing price index across 70 cities has decreased by 3.0% year-on-year, while the second-hand housing price index has dropped by 5.5% [16][20] Population Impact - The report concludes that population factors are long-term variables with limited mid-term impact on housing prices, as the marginal changes in housing prices are influenced more by monetary policy, supply-demand relationships, and economic expectations [25][39] - A regression analysis across several developed countries shows that housing price indices do not have a significant correlation with population growth rates [40][42] International Experience - The report draws parallels with international experiences, noting that stable fiscal and monetary policies are essential for stabilizing housing prices after declines [6][46] - It cites examples from the U.S., Japan, and South Korea, where coordinated fiscal and monetary policies have successfully supported housing market recovery after significant downturns [46][49] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on real estate companies with strong credit ratings and solid fundamentals in urban areas, such as China Overseas Development and Poly Developments [7] - It also suggests that companies excelling in both residential and commercial real estate, as well as those providing high-quality property management services, are well-positioned for growth [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the impact of mid-term population changes on housing prices in developed countries/regions is limited, as there is no significant positive correlation between housing price indices and population growth rates or numbers [1] - From 2022, housing prices in 70 cities have entered a downward trend, with a widening decline expected in Q3 2024, although the year-on-year decline has narrowed since Q4 due to supportive policies [1] - The current adjustment cycle in the housing market has seen both new and second-hand housing price indices decline for over 40 months [1] Group 2 - Historical data shows that housing prices in developed countries/regions have experienced fluctuations since the 1980s, with price corrections often exceeding those in China, but eventually stabilizing [2] - Key factors for stabilizing and recovering housing prices include coordinated fiscal and monetary policies, such as large-scale quantitative easing, interest rate cuts, and fiscal subsidies [2] - A stable policy outlook, low interest rate environment, and improved supply-demand structure are crucial for halting the decline and stabilizing the real estate market [2] Group 3 - The stabilization of housing prices is influenced by multiple factors, including monetary policy, supply-demand relationships, and economic expectations, rather than solely by population dynamics [3] - Recommended investment targets include strong credit property companies with good urban fundamentals and leading product capabilities, as well as firms that can drive both residential and commercial real estate [3] - The increasing penetration rate of second-hand housing indicates a promising outlook for the real estate after-service sector [3]