Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company expects a decline of approximately 35% in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of the 2025 fiscal year, primarily due to weak consumer demand and increased promotional efforts [2] - The main brands, Nike and Adidas, show contrasting outlooks, with Nike being cautious and expecting a decline in revenue, while Adidas remains optimistic about growth [2] - The company plans to implement various measures to manage inventory effectively and will introduce niche brands to enhance its brand matrix [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY2025, the company forecasts a revenue of 26,146 million, a decrease of 9.6% from FY2024 [3] - The net profit for FY2025 is projected at 1,488 million, reflecting a decline of 32.8% compared to FY2024 [3] - The EPS for FY2025 is estimated to be 0.24, with a P/E ratio of 8 [3] Market Data - The total market capitalization is 138.29 billion HKD, with a total share capital of 6.201 billion shares [5] - The stock has traded between 2.11 and 6.96 HKD over the past year, with a turnover rate of 26.9% in the last three months [5] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin is expected to be 41.1% for FY2025, with a net profit margin of 5.7% [7] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 14.9% for FY2025 [7] Valuation Metrics - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio, exceeding 100% in the previous years, indicating strong dividend attributes [2] - The projected P/B ratio remains stable at around 1.3 for the upcoming years [3][7]

12 Sep 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Topsports (6110 HK) Grim outlook but dividend is attractive What is new? Topsports reported a profit warning for 1H25E (ending Aug 2024). The Company is now expecting an around 35% YoY net profit drop in 1H25E (vs RMB 1.3bn in 1H24), due to: 1) worse-than-expected offline traffic, hence a meaningful SSS drop and significant operating deleverage and 2) decline in GP margin as a result of higher retail discounts and greater sales ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Tabo (6110.HK) [1] Core Views - Despite short-term performance pressures and a lack of growth drivers, the current stock price reflects the anticipated decline in profits for 1HFY25 and the management's pessimistic outlook for 2HFY25 [1] - The stock is currently valued at 7.8x CY25 P/E, indicating limited room for further decline [1] - The report anticipates a recovery in brand and product momentum for Nike and Adidas over the next 12 months, which could drive revenue growth for Tabo [1] - The expected dividend yield for FY25 is 11.2%, positioning Tabo as a strong long-term value investment [1] Financial Forecasts - The projected revenue for FY2025 is 26,246 million RMB, reflecting a 9% decline year-on-year [2][3] - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for FY2025 is 1,427 million RMB, a significant decrease of 36% compared to FY2024 [2][3] - The PE ratio for FY2025 is estimated at 8.9x, with a projected ROE of 14% [2][3] Key Financial Metrics - Revenue for FY2023 was 27,073 million RMB, with a year-on-year decline of 15% [2][3] - The company expects to maintain a 100% dividend payout ratio, leading to a high dividend yield [1] - The operating profit margin is projected to stabilize around 41.2% for the upcoming years [3][4] Market Position and Strategy - Tabo is focusing on enhancing its competitive advantages in retail by optimizing its brand matrix and expanding consumption scenarios [1] - The company aims to improve store operations and inventory efficiency to support brand sales and maintain stable gross margins [1] - Management has indicated a need to adjust FY25 full-year performance guidance due to anticipated challenges in terminal demand [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][4]. Core Views - The company issued a profit warning for FY2025H1, with revenue declining due to weak consumer demand impacting the retail environment, resulting in a 35% year-on-year decrease in net profit attributable to shareholders. This is primarily due to negative operating leverage from decreased foot traffic and increased expense ratios, alongside a decline in gross margin due to deeper discounts. The company remains committed to a high dividend policy, expecting a payout ratio of 100% for the year [4][5]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - For FY2025H1, the company anticipates a net profit of 1.327 billion HKD, down from previous estimates of 2.37 billion HKD for FY2025, reflecting a significant downward revision in profit forecasts for FY2025-2027 [4][6]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 are 0.2, 0.2, and 0.3 HKD respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 9.5, 8.2, and 7.0 [4][6]. Market Dynamics - The company's main brands are experiencing varied performance, with professional brands outperforming casual brands. The Nike brand is facing challenges with product mix, while Adidas is expected to perform well with new product launches [5]. - Online sales are outperforming offline sales, benefiting from the company's comprehensive layout strategy, which has led to an increase in online sales proportion [5]. Operational Strategies - The company is focusing on inventory management, demand capture, and cost control to improve operations. This includes managing inventory levels effectively, introducing niche brands to enhance the brand matrix, and being cautious with physical store expansions and closures [5].

证券研究报告 | 公司研究 gszqdatemark 2024 09 08 年 月 日 滔搏（06110.HK） 短期销售有所波动，长期持续深化运营升级 公司 3-5 月销售下降中单位数，6 月份以来我们判断公司终端销售或仍有一定压 力。根据公司此前披露，2024 年 3-5 月公司全渠道销售额同比下降中单位数，我 们判断公司相对较弱的销售表现主要系消费环境波动对线下门店客流造成影响， 当前国内线下奥莱业态表现或较好，而滔搏门店多为正价店，因此受消费环境波 动影响较大；受益于公司电商业务运营能力的提升，3-5 月电商渠道则保持快速增 长势头。6 月份以来，我们判断公司电商业务或保持较优异表现，线下门店客流仍 处于波动状态，从数据上来看同业公司宝胜国际 6 月/7 月销售同比分别14.1%/-10.6%，综合考虑下我们判断滔搏近期流水或存在一定压力。 ➢ 因业务模式不同，滔搏短期经营情况与其上游客户经营情况并不完全一致。 作为滔搏的核心客户，adidas 以及 Nike 近期也陆续发布季报，货币中性基 础上 adidas 2024 年 Q1/Q2 大中华区营收同比分别+8%/+9%，Nike 2024 年 3- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company with a target price of HKD 3.6, compared to the current price of HKD 2.9 [1]. Core Insights - The company's performance is under short-term pressure due to weak consumer spending and challenges in offline customer acquisition. The sales in the apparel, footwear, and textile categories showed only a 0.5% year-on-year growth from January to July, with a significant decline of 5.2% in July compared to June [1]. - Nike has lowered its full-year guidance, while Adidas is gradually recovering its sales. Nike's sales in Greater China are expected to decline in FY25, while Adidas has raised its full-year revenue forecast [1]. - The company is facing operational challenges, with a projected decline in revenue for FY25 and a potential decrease in gross margin due to higher online discounting compared to offline sales [1]. - Despite these challenges, the company is committed to maintaining a high dividend policy and enhancing operational efficiency through strategic partnerships [1]. Financial Summary - The total revenue forecast for FY2025 is adjusted to HKD 27.348 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 5.5%. The net profit forecast for FY2025 is revised down to HKD 1.827 billion, a decrease of 17.4% [2]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for FY2025 is projected at HKD 0.29, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.9 [2]. - The financial indicators show a total revenue of HKD 28.950 billion for FY2024, with a growth rate of 6.9%, and a net profit of HKD 2.213 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 20.5% [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong performance relative to the market [3][12]. Core Insights - The retail environment is under pressure, with a forecasted decline in sales for the first quarter of FY25, reflecting a similar trend to the previous quarter. The company expects continued challenges in the retail sector due to extreme weather and a lack of significant improvement in offline retail [3][4]. - Key clients show mixed performance, with Adidas recovering gradually while Nike faces increased pressure. Adidas reported sales growth in the Greater China region, while Nike's sales growth is slowing down [3][4]. - The company is actively exploring diverse retail models to mitigate the impact of reduced foot traffic, focusing on enhancing store quality and expanding online sales through various platforms [4]. - New brand collaborations and partnerships are progressing, which are expected to contribute to incremental growth. Strategic partnerships with Fanatics and Norda are highlighted as key initiatives [4]. - The company is focusing on high-quality growth through a comprehensive retail strategy, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts for FY25-27, with projected net profits of 1.79 billion, 1.92 billion, and 2.09 billion RMB respectively [4]. Summary by Sections Market Data - As of August 22, 2024, the closing price is HKD 2.98, with a market capitalization of HKD 18.48 billion [2]. Financial Performance - For FY2024, the company expects a revenue of 28.93 billion RMB, with a net profit of 2.21 billion RMB, reflecting a 20% growth compared to the previous year [5][9]. - The gross margin is projected to be 41.8%, with a net profit margin of 7.6% for FY24 [6][9]. Sales and Store Performance - The company reported a decline in sales for the first half of FY24, with a year-on-year decrease in sales area for offline stores [8]. - The average store area has shown growth, indicating a focus on quality over quantity in store expansion [4][8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [2][4]. Core Views - Short-term sales pressure is expected to continue, but the company has significant long-term operational advantages. The report anticipates a healthy and steady growth driven by strong retail operational capabilities [4]. - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to RMB 1.9 billion, RMB 2.21 billion, and RMB 2.45 billion respectively, down from previous estimates of RMB 2.39 billion, RMB 2.62 billion, and RMB 2.89 billion [4]. - The report highlights that online sales are expected to continue growing, with a projected increase in online revenue share to 30% in FY2025Q1, compared to 20-30% in FY2024 [4]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - The company’s retail and wholesale business total revenue is expected to show a year-on-year decline in the mid-single digits for FY2025Q1, with online growth outpacing offline due to fluctuating consumer demand and weak foot traffic [4]. - The report references industry peers, noting that the company’s revenue performance in June and July is expected to mirror Q1 trends, with continued differentiation between online and offline channels [4]. Profitability - The report indicates that the increase in online sales and negative operating leverage may impact overall profit margins. The overall discounting is expected to deepen slightly due to the higher proportion of online sales [4]. - The company’s historical return on equity (ROE) remains high, and it is expected to achieve further growth through enhanced multi-channel retail operations and optimized store structures [4]. Dividend Policy - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio of around 100% since 2021, demonstrating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [4].

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 消费行业 滔搏（6110.HK）：短期收入与利润率承 压，但长期基本面依然稳健 • 短期需求面临挑战，下调 FY25 收入与利润预期：继 1QFY25（2024 年 3-5 月）收入同比下滑中单位数之后，滔搏 6-7 月的收入依然面临较 大挑战。我们预计 6-7 月收入同比下滑高单位数，下滑幅度高于 1QFY25。 尽管 8 月初的零售流水表现出一定的回暖迹象，但可能是受到短期天 气转好以及奥运热度的影响，后续是否可持续依然未知。鉴于现阶段整 体较弱的终端需求，我们下调 FY25 的收入预测至全年同比下跌中单位 数。考虑到收入下降可能带来较大的经营负杠杆，我们预测 FY25 归母 净利润同比下降 17.4%。考虑到较弱的销售趋势以及市场情绪，我们下 调目标价至 3.76 港元（10 倍 CY25 P/E）。维持"买入"评级。 • FY25 恐将面临较大的经营负杠杆：受渠道结构的影响（线上占比增 加），我们保守预计全年零售折扣同比可能有所加深，令毛利率同比小 幅下滑。收入和毛利的下滑无疑将带来较大的经营负杠杆。尽管公司长 期致力于降本增效，但考虑到滔搏本身已经较高的运营效率，我们认为 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5]. Core Views - The company reported a decline in retail sales for FY2025Q1, with a year-on-year decrease in single digits and a 1.4% quarter-on-quarter decrease in gross sales area of direct stores, reflecting a challenging retail environment [5][6]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its online presence to offset weak offline traffic, with e-commerce channels expected to perform better due to content-driven marketing and private domain operations [5]. - The inventory levels are expected to remain healthy, with a stock-to-sales ratio projected to be within a healthy range of 4-5 months, despite increased competition from low-priced products in the market [5]. - The company aims to optimize store efficiency and enhance overall retail operations, with a stable average store area and a strategy to integrate online and offline sales channels [5]. - The company is positioned as a leading distributor of major sports brands in China, with potential growth from domestic brands and outdoor products, projecting net profits of 2.36 billion, 2.54 billion, and 2.73 billion for FY2025-2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10, 9, and 9 [5][8].