Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [2] Core Views - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for 滔搏 (06110 HK) due to expected performance recovery post inventory improvement and organizational adjustments [5] - FY2025Q3 saw a mid-single-digit decline in year-over-year (YoY) sales, with retail performing slightly better than wholesale and online outperforming offline [5] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1 33 billion 1 53 billion and 1 81 billion for FY2024-2026 respectively with current P/E ratios of 12 2x 10 6x and 9 0x [5] - Sales performance improved in December compared to Q3 with expectations of further improvement in main brand channels and product performance [5] Financial Performance - FY2025Q3 saw a slight improvement in offline foot traffic decline compared to H1 with online sales accounting for 40% of total sales up from 30% in FY2025H1 [5] - Discounts deepened in FY2025Q3 with offline discounts increasing while online discounts improved partially offsetting the negative impact of higher online sales proportion [5] - Inventory-to-sales ratio is expected to improve by the end of FY2025 with current ratios at 4-5 months slightly up due to seasonal and stocking differences [5] Operational Strategy - The company is accelerating the淘汰 of underperforming offline stores while increasing the average store size and implementing integrated management across all channels [6] - Online the company is expanding its presence on platform e-commerce and building a content e-commerce advantage through a matrix-style live streaming system [6] - The company is坚持全域货品管理 including broadening inventory circulation and implementing precise price management across different channels to improve overall retail efficiency [6] Financial Summary and Valuation - Revenue for FY2023A FY2024A FY2025E FY2026E and FY2027E is projected at 27 073 million 28 933 million 26 710 million 28 309 million and 30 448 million respectively [6] - Net profit for the same periods is projected at 1 837 million 2 213 million 1 327 million 1 532 million and 1 810 million respectively [6] - Gross margin is expected to be 41 7% 41 8% 38 6% 40 2% and 40 7% for the respective fiscal years [6] - Net margin is projected at 6 8% 7 6% 5 0% 5 4% and 5 9% respectively [6] - ROE is expected to be 18 7% 22 5% 13 5% 15 6% and 18 4% for the respective fiscal years [6] - EPS (diluted) is projected at 0 3 0 4 0 2 0 2 and 0 3 respectively [6] - P/E ratios are expected to be 8 8x 7 3x 12 2x 10 6x and 9 0x respectively [6] - P/B ratios are projected at 1 7x 1 6x 1 6x 1 6x and 1 6x respectively [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1][3][27] Core Views - The company's Q3 FY2025 sales declined by mid-single digits year-over-year, but the decline narrowed compared to the previous quarter [3][5] - Online channel performance was better than offline, with online sales expected to grow by double digits in Q3, accounting for 40% of total sales [4][5] - The company aims to achieve inventory improvement by the end of the fiscal year, with deeper discounts expected in Q3 due to inventory clearance efforts [4][6] - The company's strong cash generation capability supports a high dividend payout, with a mid-term dividend payout ratio of 99% and an expected full-year payout ratio of 100% [4][26] - The company's main brand, Adidas, performed well in Greater China, with high single-digit revenue growth in the first three quarters, and the company raised its full-year revenue growth guidance to 10% [4][26] - Nike, another key brand, is in a transition phase, with potential recovery expected in FY2026 under new leadership and product innovation [4][26] - Non-core brands in the outdoor sector remain highly competitive [26] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company's Q3 FY2025 total sales declined by mid-single digits year-over-year, with a 2.1% quarter-over-quarter and 4.4% year-over-year reduction in gross sales area of directly operated stores [3][5] - The company expects to achieve inventory improvement by the end of the fiscal year, with deeper discounts in Q3 [6] - The report maintains profit forecasts, with expected net profits of 1.44 billion, 1.79 billion, and 1.92 billion yuan for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027, respectively, representing year-over-year changes of -35.1%, +24.5%, and +7.6% [27] - The reasonable valuation range is 3.8-4.0 HKD, corresponding to a 2025 PE ratio of 15-16x [27] Brand Performance - Adidas: In Q3 FY2024, Adidas reported a 10% year-over-year revenue growth at constant exchange rates, with a 9% growth in Greater China excluding Yeezy. The company raised its full-year revenue growth guidance to 10% [16][26] - Nike: In Q1 FY2025, Nike's revenue declined by 10% year-over-year, with a 16% decline in direct sales in Greater China. The company withdrew its full-year guidance due to CEO transition but expects better performance in the second half of FY2025 [13][26] Market and Industry Outlook - The company's sales decline and store closures are primarily due to weak macroeconomic demand and reduced offline foot traffic [4][26] - The company expects channel adjustments to stabilize in the next fiscal year, with potential growth driven by inventory health and market environment improvements [4][26] - The outdoor sector remains highly competitive, with non-core brands maintaining strong performance [26]

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains a "outperform" rating for Tmall (06110) with a target price of HKD 3.1 [1] Sales Performance - In the third quarter, sales amount decreased by single digits year-on-year, while direct store gross sales area also reduced [1] - Online sales, however, continued to grow at a double-digit rate [1] Inventory Management - Inventory control is in line with expectations [1] Brand Adjustments - The main brand Nike is undergoing adjustments, which is expected to bring growth elasticity in the future [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][7]. Core Views - The company experienced a mid-single-digit decline in overall sales for FY2025Q3, with a notable improvement compared to FY2025Q2. The decline in sales is attributed to fluctuations in foot traffic and a challenging consumption environment [2][3]. - The company's e-commerce segment is expected to continue its rapid growth, potentially achieving double-digit growth rates, driven by promotional activities and an expanded platform strategy [3][4]. - The main brands, Nike and Adidas, are showing different growth trajectories, with Adidas maintaining steady growth while Nike is undergoing structural adjustments under new leadership. The long-term growth potential for Nike remains positive, benefiting the company as a key retailer in the Greater China region [4]. Financial Summary - For FY2025, the company is projected to see a high single-digit decline in revenue and a nearly 40% drop in net profit attributable to shareholders. This is influenced by macroeconomic improvements and promotional activities [3][6]. - The financial metrics indicate a revenue forecast of 26,523 million for FY2025, with a net profit of 1,338 million, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 39.6% [6][12]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.22 for FY2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.6 [6][14]. Operational Insights - The company is focusing on inventory reduction and optimizing its store structure, which includes closing underperforming stores. As of the end of September, the total sales area decreased by 2.1% from August and 4.4% year-over-year [2][4]. - The report highlights the importance of digital transformation and effective membership operations in enhancing retail efficiency and customer loyalty [4]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a leading player in the sports footwear and apparel retail sector, with ongoing efforts to improve store operations and digital capabilities [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [4][64]. Core Views - The company has established deep partnerships with leading international brands such as Nike and Adidas, which are expected to drive future growth despite recent challenges [4][10]. - The company is optimizing its offline channel structure by closing inefficient stores and opening larger, more efficient ones, enhancing customer experience and brand image [4][57]. - The company is well-positioned in the sports apparel distribution industry, with a strong brand portfolio and a commitment to expanding its offerings [5][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Growth and Brand Resources - The sports apparel industry is expected to continue its growth trajectory, driven by increasing consumer spending and the expansion of emerging markets [24][28]. - The company has a rich portfolio of agency brands and a leading dividend yield in the industry, reflecting its strong financial health and commitment to returning value to shareholders [10][35]. 2. Anticipating Recovery of International Brands - The company is poised for recovery as international brands adjust their strategies, with new store formats and products expected to rejuvenate sales channels [4][10]. - The company has been proactive in expanding its brand partnerships, including collaborations with emerging brands, which enhances its revenue diversification and risk resilience [35][10]. 3. Profit Forecast and Rating - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.316 billion RMB, 1.627 billion RMB, and 1.873 billion RMB for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027, respectively, with growth rates of -40.53%, 23.62%, and 15.11% [5][64]. - The report highlights that the company's valuation is relatively low compared to peers, justifying the "Accumulate" rating based on its strong market position and brand resources [5][64]. 4. Key Assumptions - The company is expected to maintain a sales expense ratio of approximately 28.90% to 28.30% from FY2025 to FY2027, reflecting its efficient marketing strategies [59][60]. - Management expenses are projected to decline, indicating improved operational efficiency through digital management systems [59][60].

Financial Performance - Revenue for the six months ended August 31, 2024, decreased by 7.9% year-on-year to RMB 13,054.7 million[7]. - Gross profit declined to RMB 5,362.4 million, with a gross margin of 41.1%, down 3.6 percentage points from the previous year[7][12]. - Profit attributable to equity holders of the company was RMB 1,120.9 million, representing a decrease from RMB 1,725.9 million in the same period last year[7]. - The company's profit attributable to equity holders decreased by 34.7% to RMB 873.8 million, with a profit margin decline of 2.7 percentage points to 6.7%[14]. - Operating profit for the same period was RMB 1,120.9 million, down 35.1% year-on-year[37]. - The company reported a net profit of RMB 873.8 million for the six months ended August 31, 2024, compared to RMB 1,337.2 million for the same period in 2023, representing a decline of approximately 34.7%[90]. - Basic earnings per share decreased by 34.7% from RMB 21.56 to RMB 14.09 for the six months ended August 31, 2024[52]. Inventory and Sales - The average inventory turnover period increased to 148.3 days compared to 140.9 days in the previous year[7]. - The company's inventory increased by 6.4% year-on-year to RMB 6,119.9 million, but decreased by 2.6% compared to the previous period[23]. - Direct online sales accounted for approximately 30% of total direct sales, with live streaming sales on Douyin platform increasing by about 200% year-on-year[20]. - Sales of goods amounted to RMB 12,960.1 million, down from RMB 14,068.2 million, reflecting a decline of 7.8%[112]. - The total inventory cost for the six months ended August 31, 2024, was RMB 7,601.7 million, down from RMB 7,824.2 million for the same period in 2023, a decrease of 2.8%[140]. Cash Flow and Liquidity - Cash and cash equivalents as of August 31, 2024, amounted to RMB 2,839.6 million, with net cash generated from operating activities increasing by 2.5% year-on-year to RMB 2,613.5 million despite a 35.1% decline in pre-tax profit[15]. - The current ratio as of August 31, 2024, is 2.8, down from 3.2 as of February 29, 2024[7]. - The company maintained a net cash position as of August 31, 2024, with total short-term bank deposits and cash exceeding short-term borrowings by RMB 2,039.6 million[57]. - Net cash generated from operating activities increased by RMB 22.2 million to RMB 2,702.9 million for the six months ended August 31, 2024[54]. - The cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period stood at RMB 2,839.6 million, down from RMB 3,148.2 million at the end of the same period last year[93]. Store Operations and Employee Metrics - The number of directly operated stores decreased by 6.4% year-on-year to 5,813, with total sales area declining by 1.9%[16]. - Employee headcount as of August 31, 2024, was 28,941, a decrease of 3.2% year-on-year, aligning with the reduction in store numbers[24]. - The company opened new stores focusing on key brands and professional niche brands, while also accelerating the closure of underperforming stores[19]. Dividends and Shareholder Returns - The company declared an interim dividend of RMB 0.14 per share, with a payout ratio of 99.4%, up from 74.2% in the previous year[15]. - The company declared an interim dividend of RMB 0.14 per share, totaling RMB 868.2 million[66]. Strategic Initiatives and Market Position - The company is focusing on long-term brand building and user value creation despite external market challenges[11]. - The company is implementing a flexible retail network adjustment strategy to optimize store layouts in response to declining foot traffic[10]. - The company is enhancing its online presence through over 2,500 mini-program stores and more than 300 live streaming accounts, significantly increasing consumer engagement[20]. - The company implemented personalized marketing strategies through refined user segmentation, enhancing marketing precision and efficiency[27]. - Future initiatives focus on enhancing digital capabilities and sustainable practices, aiming for long-term growth and resilience in retail operations[36]. Governance and Compliance - The company has complied with all applicable code provisions of the Corporate Governance Code, except for the separation of roles between the Chairman and CEO[171]. - The board will regularly review and enhance its corporate governance practices to ensure continued compliance with the Corporate Governance Code[172]. - The Audit Committee is composed of three independent non-executive directors, with Mr. Lin Yaojian serving as the chairman and possessing professional accounting qualifications[175].

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/纺织与服装/服装与奢侈品 证券研究报告 滔搏（6110）公司半年报点评 2024 年 11 月 06 日 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------|--------------| | 股票数据 | | | 11 [ Table_StockInfo 月 05 日收盘价（港元） ] | 2.71 | | 52 周股价波动（港元） | 2.11-6.36 | | 总股本（百万股） | 6201 | | 总市值（百万港元） | 16805 | | 相关研究 | | | [Tabl 《 FY24H1 e_ReportInfo] 经营利润同比增 23% | ，实现全域高 | | 质量增长》 2023.10.23 | | 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is downgraded to "Neutral" [4][3]. Core Insights - The company has experienced a decline in both revenue and net profit for the first half of the fiscal year 2025, with a revenue drop of 7.9% year-on-year to 13.05 billion RMB, slightly below market expectations. The gross margin decreased by 3.6 percentage points to 41.1% due to increased discount rates and a higher proportion of lower-margin wholesale channels [1][3]. - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio, with an interim dividend of 0.14 RMB per share, resulting in a payout ratio of 99.4%, and an average payout ratio exceeding 100% over the past three years [1][3]. - The total number of stores decreased by over 300, with 5,813 stores in operation by the end of the first half of fiscal year 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 396 stores. However, the quality of membership continues to improve, with a total membership of 81 million, reflecting a 10.8% year-on-year growth [2][3]. - The company is actively expanding its brand partnerships to capture future growth potential, including collaborations with high-end brands in the trail running segment and digital operation platforms [2][3]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending February 29, 2025, the company is projected to have a revenue of 26.58 billion RMB, a decrease of 8.1% year-on-year. The net profit is expected to be 1.472 billion RMB, down 33.4% year-on-year [6][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.24 RMB, with a significant adjustment of -42.2% from previous forecasts [6][10]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 10.3 times for 2025, reflecting a downward adjustment from previous estimates [6][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is downgraded to Neutral with a target price of HKD 3.06, indicating a potential upside of 14.1% from the current closing price of HKD 2.68 [1][4][3]. Core Insights - The company experienced a decline in both revenue and net profit for the first half of the fiscal year 2025, with revenue dropping by 7.9% year-on-year to RMB 13.05 billion, slightly below market expectations. The gross margin decreased by 3.6 percentage points to 41.1%, primarily due to increased discount rates and a higher proportion of lower-margin wholesale channels [1][3]. - The company maintained a high dividend payout ratio, with an interim dividend of RMB 0.14 per share, resulting in a payout ratio of 99.4%, and an average payout ratio exceeding 100% over the past three years [1][5]. - The total number of stores decreased by 396 year-on-year to 5,813, with a 1.9% decline in total sales area compared to the previous year. However, the average sales area per store increased by 4.8% [2]. - The company has enhanced its membership quality, with a total membership count reaching 81 million, reflecting a 10.8% year-on-year growth. The contribution of repeat members to overall sales remains stable at 60-70% [2]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal years ending February 29, the projected revenues are as follows: RMB 26.58 billion for 2025E (down 8.1% year-on-year), RMB 27.57 billion for 2026E (up 3.7%), and RMB 29.11 billion for 2027E (up 5.6%) [5][9]. - The net profit is expected to be RMB 1.47 billion for 2025E (down 33.4% year-on-year), RMB 1.67 billion for 2026E (up 13.6%), and RMB 1.85 billion for 2027E (up 10.6%) [5][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025E is RMB 0.24, with a significant downward adjustment of 42.2% from previous estimates [5][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [3][4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue decline of 8% year-on-year to 13.1 billion HKD for FY2025H1, with a net profit attributable to shareholders down 35% to 870 million HKD. The interim dividend payout ratio was 99.4% [3][4]. - The company maintains strong cost control despite pressure on terminal discounts, with a net profit margin decrease of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year to 6.7%, primarily due to a gross margin decline of 3.7 percentage points to 41.1%. This was influenced by significant retail pressure and an increase in online sales, which affected gross margins [4]. - Inventory levels remain manageable, with inventory turnover days increasing by 7 days year-on-year to 148 days. The company reported good cash flow from operating activities at 2.61 billion HKD, maintaining a high dividend payout ratio [4]. - Looking ahead, the company anticipates gradual recovery in performance due to adjustments in previous orders and improved support from Nike's new CEO. The sports industry demand has shown signs of recovery since October, and the company continues to implement cautious cost control measures [4]. Financial Summary - For FY2024, the company expects revenue of 28.93 billion HKD, with a projected decline of 8% in FY2025 to 26.736 billion HKD. The net profit is forecasted to drop to 1.377 billion HKD in FY2025, a decrease of 38% [8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.36 HKD for FY2024, decreasing to 0.22 HKD in FY2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.70 for FY2024 and 10.84 for FY2025 [8].