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滔搏(06110.HK):短期审慎 长期乐观
Ge Long Hui· 2025-12-28 04:43
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in retail and wholesale sales for FY26Q3, with total sales decreasing by a high single-digit percentage year-on-year, and a reduction in gross sales area of direct stores by 1.3% quarter-on-quarter and 13.4% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Retail Strategy - The company is advancing an integrated retail network centered around physical stores, adopting a "1 (offline stores) + N (corresponding online multi-scenario layout)" model for diversified operations [1] - The company is implementing a "one product, one strategy" approach for retail store structural adjustments, focusing on innovation in store scenarios and formats that combine functional services with social attributes [1] - The online ecosystem is expanding with over 800 accounts on Douyin and WeChat video accounts, more than 3,600 mini-program stores, and over 3,700 stores participating in instant retail [1] Group 2: Brand Partnerships - The company is deepening its brand layout in the running and outdoor segments, having established exclusive operational partnerships with brands such as norda, soar, Ciele, and Norr na in mainland China [1] - The company is engaging core users through social media matrices, large-scale events, and community activities, while also utilizing diverse formats like online flagship stores and offline pop-up shops [1] - The company opened its first running concept store, ektos, in Shanghai, focusing on the needs of runners and integrating into the community to enhance user engagement [1] Group 3: User Engagement - The company is building a diversified user value system centered on consumer needs, with a cumulative user base of 89 million, and is enhancing user profiles through multi-platform information integration [1] - The company upgraded its membership system, linking the original member IP "Tao Xiaoxia" with daily scenarios and introducing a cost-saving seasonal card for frequent consumers [1] - To resonate with younger consumers, the company is activating community connections through diverse IP co-branding marketing activities and offline community experience events [1] Group 4: Financial Forecast - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting revenues of 26.5 billion RMB, 27.3 billion RMB, and 28.6 billion RMB for FY26-28, with net profits of 1.3 billion RMB, 1.5 billion RMB, and 1.7 billion RMB, and EPS of 0.21 RMB, 0.24 RMB, and 0.27 RMB respectively [2]
滔搏(06110.HK):经营短期承压 修复仍需时间
Ge Long Hui· 2025-12-26 12:43
Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the retail performance of the company continues to face pressure, with a decline in retail sales and an increase in discount rates [1][2] - For FY2026Q3, the company's direct store gross sales area decreased by 1.3% compared to the previous quarter and by 13.4% year-on-year, attributed to the optimization of the offline store network and cautious store modifications [1] - The company is expected to maintain a conservative approach towards FY2027 Nike orders, but Nike's proactive support policies are anticipated to contribute positively to gross margins [1] Group 2 - The company is currently at the bottom of its operational cycle, facing short-term pressures due to weak consumer sentiment in the Greater China region and intense competition [2] - Long-term prospects remain optimistic as Nike is expected to stabilize, which may help the company recover [2] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.24 billion, 1.36 billion, and 1.50 billion yuan for FY2026-FY2028, with respective year-on-year changes of -4%, +10%, and +10% [2]
滔搏(06110):港股研究|公司点评|滔搏(06110.HK):经营短期承压,修复仍需时间
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-25 12:48
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company is currently experiencing short-term operational pressure, and recovery is expected to take time [6]. - Retail sales have shown a decline, with direct store sales area decreasing by 1.3% quarter-on-quarter and 13.4% year-on-year as of November 30, 2025 [2][6]. - The company is optimizing its offline store network by cautiously closing underperforming stores, which is expected to stabilize the number of stores in the future [8]. - Short-term pressures remain, but there is a long-term optimistic outlook due to Nike's supportive policies and market management improvements [8]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.24 billion, 1.36 billion, and 1.50 billion yuan for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14, 12, and 11 [8][10]. Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Performance - Retail sales continue to face pressure, with deeper discounting expected. The retail performance is anticipated to be better than wholesale [8]. - The company is expected to maintain inventory reduction efforts, but retail and discount pressures are likely to persist [8]. Store Network - The decline in store sales area has narrowed, and there is hope for stabilization in the future as the company optimizes its store network [8]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 25.21 billion, 25.97 billion, and 26.75 billion yuan for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028, with a year-on-year change of -7%, 3%, and 3% respectively [10]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) are 0.20, 0.22, and 0.24 yuan for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 [10].
滔搏(06110.HK):3QFY26符合公司预期 后续展望审慎
Ge Long Hui· 2025-12-24 20:42
Company Performance - The company reported a total sales decline in retail and wholesale business by high single digits year-on-year for 3QFY26, with direct store gross sales area decreasing by 1.3% compared to the end of August [1] - The performance in 3QFY26 was in line with the company's expectations, reflecting weak terminal demand in the sports footwear and apparel market [1] - Retail channels outperformed wholesale, with offline channels showing slight improvement compared to 1HFY26 due to a low base [1] Inventory and Discounts - The company effectively managed the sales rhythm of new and old products, resulting in a year-on-year decrease in total inventory by the end of November while maintaining good turnover efficiency [1] - Retail discounts deepened year-on-year due to the increased proportion of online channels and promotional environment, although the rate of deepening narrowed compared to the previous quarter [1] Management Outlook - Since December, demand has continued to fluctuate, with management maintaining a cautious outlook due to weather variations and holiday timing issues [1] - Management emphasized the importance of discount and healthy operational management, acknowledging challenges in achieving the annual performance guidance, but expects better results from cost optimization in 2HFY26 [1] - The company plans to continue collaborating with key brands to optimize the market environment and actively expand into running and outdoor segments, aiming to become a one-stop operational partner for brands in the Chinese market [1] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Due to weak demand and ongoing adjustments from key brands, the company has lowered its FY26/27 EPS forecasts by 4% and 13% to 0.20 and 0.23 HKD respectively [2] - The current stock price corresponds to 14 and 12 times FY26/27 P/E, with a target price reduction of 7% to 3.88 HKD, indicating a 24% upside potential from the current price [2]
滔搏(06110.HK):三季度基本符合预期 经营指标健康 需求仍待回暖
Ge Long Hui· 2025-12-24 20:42
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the retail and wholesale sales of the company have experienced a high single-digit decline year-on-year, which is in line with expectations. Retail performance is better than wholesale, with online sales outperforming offline sales [1] - The company maintains a healthy inventory level, with total inventory continuing to decline and turnover efficiency being good. The company prioritizes maintaining a relatively healthy inventory as a key objective [1] - Nike is strengthening product innovation and retail capabilities while increasing efforts to recover inventory. The company is cautious about new product orders for 2026 to avoid channel inventory buildup and is focusing on recalling old inventory from distributors [2] Group 2 - Retail demand has weakened since the fourth quarter, posing challenges to achieving the annual guidance. The company is making efforts to optimize personnel and adjust stores to save costs in the second half of the year [3] - The company is focused on high-quality growth in the sports apparel retail business and is expanding its brand portfolio to create diverse growth curves. Profit forecasts for FY26-28 have been slightly lowered, with expected net profits of 1.25 billion, 1.39 billion, and 1.51 billion yuan respectively [3] - The company has a strong retail operation capability through deep cooperation with major brands like Nike and Adidas, and is optimistic about the mid-term recovery trend despite short-term retail fluctuations [3]
滔搏(06110.HK):Q3销售仍有波动 关注品牌伙伴去库和上新节奏
Ge Long Hui· 2025-12-24 20:42
Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing a significant decline in sales across various channels, with offline sales under pressure due to store closures and a fluctuating consumer environment, while e-commerce is expected to continue its growth momentum [1][2]. Group 1: Sales Performance - In FY2026Q3, the company's total sales (including retail and wholesale) decreased by a high single-digit percentage year-on-year, with offline sales facing challenges due to store closures and reduced foot traffic [1]. - The number of offline stores decreased by 332 to 4,688 by the end of FY2026H1, leading to a 13.4% year-on-year decline in gross sales area and a 1.3% quarter-on-quarter decline [1]. - The company anticipates that the net store closures in FY2026H2 will decrease compared to FY2026H1, improving the average quality of stores after the exit of inefficient locations [1]. Group 2: E-commerce and Brand Strategy - The company is expected to maintain growth in e-commerce sales, leveraging its strong operational capabilities and enhancing its online presence through various platforms such as Douyin, Xiaohongshu, and WeChat Mini Programs [2]. - The company is focusing on expanding its brand presence in the outdoor and running segments, collaborating with brands like Norda, Soar, Ciele, and Norr na, and launching the running ecosystem brand Ektos [2]. - Ektos was showcased at the Shanghai Marathon, attracting attention from the running community, indicating a strategic move to meet diverse consumer needs [2]. Group 3: Financial Outlook - The company is projected to see a revenue decline of 7% and a net profit decrease of approximately 4% for FY2026, influenced by a volatile consumer environment and inventory management challenges faced by brands like Nike [2]. - The company’s main brand, Adidas, showed a 6% revenue growth in the Greater China region on a currency-neutral basis for the period of July to September 2025, while Nike's revenue in the same region declined by 16% [3]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.229 billion, 1.379 billion, and 1.533 billion yuan for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 respectively, with a current price corresponding to a FY2026 PE ratio of 14 times, maintaining a "buy" rating [3].
滔搏(06110.HK):三季度零售下滑高单位数 静待NIKE大中华区调整效果
Ge Long Hui· 2025-12-24 20:42
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the retail performance of the company has declined in FY25/26 Q3, with total retail sales (including retail and wholesale) experiencing a high single-digit year-on-year decrease, which aligns with expectations [1] - As of November 30, 2025, the company's direct store gross sales area decreased by 13.4% year-on-year and 1.3% quarter-on-quarter, with a slowing pace of store closures expected in FY26 compared to FY25 [1] - Nike's collaboration with distributors is expected to alleviate pressure and increase revenue for the company, with initiatives including inventory clearance, more precise consumer segmentation, stronger brand storytelling, and enhanced visual merchandising to restore profitability growth in the Greater China region [1] Group 2 - The company is gradually restoring its core international brand momentum and diversifying its portfolio through deep collaborations with leading brands like Nike and Adidas, which are expected to drive performance growth [2] - The opening of exclusive Adidas stores and the new CEO of Nike are anticipated to provide more brand support policies for third-party distributors, benefiting the company's future development [2] - Recent introductions of new brands such as Soar and NORRONA are expected to broaden the customer base and create new growth opportunities for the company [2] Group 3 - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.287 billion yuan, 1.479 billion yuan, and 1.684 billion yuan for FY2026-FY2028, representing year-on-year growth of 0.09%, 14.91%, and 13.88% respectively [3] - The company's advantages in distribution channels, brand resources, customer loyalty, and digital management, along with the gradual recovery of major agency brands and the potential of new agency brands, support a "buy" rating [3]
滔搏(6110.HK):需求弱复苏及竞争加剧下零售承压
Ge Long Hui· 2025-12-24 20:41
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in total sales for retail and wholesale businesses in FY26 Q3, with retail outperforming wholesale, indicating a weak recovery in overall terminal demand [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - Total sales for retail and wholesale businesses decreased year-on-year, with retail showing better performance than wholesale [1] - The online and offline channel performance gap has narrowed, with a slight improvement in offline sales compared to the first half of FY26 [2] - The overall discount rate has deepened year-on-year due to increased online sales, but the narrowing performance gap between channels has improved the discount depth compared to the first half of the fiscal year [2] Group 2: Store Operations - The company is focusing on optimizing store operations, with a 13.4% year-on-year decrease in gross sales area of direct-operated stores by the end of Q3 FY26 [2] - The net store closure trend has slowed down compared to Q2, indicating a cautious approach to store openings and closures [2] - The company aims to improve overall expense ratios through careful store management and the elimination of underperforming stores [2] Group 3: Brand Strategy - The company is strengthening its main brand connections in the sports sector, focusing on professional sports lines and enhancing brand recognition in outdoor markets [3] - New product lines, such as the ACG sub-brand and localized designs for the Chinese market, are expected to drive sales growth [3] - The company is accelerating multi-brand development, with new store formats and collaborations aimed at enhancing market presence in specialized segments [3] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company adjusted its net profit forecasts for FY2026-28 downwards by 4.2%, 4.0%, and 4.1% to 1.25 billion, 1.43 billion, and 1.63 billion yuan respectively, due to ongoing competitive pressures and weak retail recovery [4] - The target price has been adjusted to 3.84 HKD, reflecting a PE ratio of 15.2x for FY27, maintaining a "buy" rating [4] - The company is expected to maintain an attractive dividend yield, with a projected payout ratio of 100% for FY2027 [4]
华源证券:维持滔搏(06110)“买入”评级 不断外拓新品牌有望获得新增长驱动
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-24 10:05
Core Viewpoint - Huayuan Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Taobo (06110), highlighting its leading position in the domestic sports apparel distribution industry and its potential for new growth through brand expansion and strong partnerships with international brands [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For FY25/26 Q3, the total retail amount (including retail and wholesale) decreased by a high single-digit percentage year-on-year, which aligns with expectations [2] - As of November 30, 2025, the gross sales area of direct-operated stores declined by 13.4% year-on-year and 1.3% quarter-on-quarter, with a slower pace of store closures anticipated for FY26 compared to FY25 [2] Group 2: Brand Partnerships and Market Strategy - Nike's Q2 FY26 revenue increased by 1% year-on-year (excluding currency fluctuations), exceeding market expectations, while the Greater China region experienced a 16% decline in revenue [3] - Nike plans to collaborate closely with distributors like Taobo to address challenges in the Greater China market through inventory management, targeted consumer selection, enhanced brand storytelling, and improved visual merchandising [3] - The company is deepening its collaboration with leading international brands such as Nike and Adidas, with new initiatives expected to drive performance growth [4] Group 3: New Brand Development - The opening of exclusive Adidas stores and the appointment of a new Nike CEO are expected to enhance brand support for third-party distributors, benefiting the company's future growth [4] - Recent introductions of new brands like Soar and Norr?na are anticipated to diversify the company's offerings and expand its customer base, creating new growth opportunities [4] Group 4: Profit Forecast - The company forecasts net profits for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 to be 1.287 billion, 1.479 billion, and 1.684 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 0.09%, 14.91%, and 13.88% [5]
华源晨会精粹20251224-20251224
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2025-12-24 09:41
Group 1: Power and Environmental Industry - The core viewpoint highlights the significant power supply shortage in the U.S. due to increased computing power investments, with OpenAI raising its investment scale to 250GW by 2033 and peak electricity demand expected to exceed 1000GW by 2030, up from approximately 820GW currently [2][5] - The report suggests that the power generation side will rely on gas power, nuclear power, energy storage, and SOFC as emergency measures, with a projected electricity gap of 182GW or 89GW depending on whether existing units are retired by 2030 [6] - It is anticipated that U.S. grid investments will increase significantly, with projections of reaching $30 billion in 2024 and $43.4 billion by 2027, creating export opportunities for domestic companies [7] Group 2: Home Appliance Industry - The report on Tabo (06110.HK) indicates a high single-digit decline in retail sales for Q3 FY25/26, aligning with expectations, and a reduction in store closures is anticipated for FY26 compared to FY25 [11][12] - Nike's revenue in the Greater China region has decreased by 16% year-on-year, prompting the company to collaborate closely with distributors like Tabo to address inventory issues and enhance brand image through targeted strategies [11][12] - The introduction of new brands such as Soar and NORRONA is expected to diversify Tabo's offerings and expand its customer base, potentially driving new revenue growth [12]