Core Viewpoint - The report from Cinda Securities indicates that Tabo (06110) has experienced a high single-digit year-on-year decline in total sales for its retail and wholesale businesses in Q3 of the fiscal year 2025/26, aligning with previous performance guidance trends [1] Group 1: Retail and Wholesale Performance - Retail business continues to outperform wholesale, with manageable discount and inventory situations, reflecting strong retail management capabilities [2] - The decline in retail sales is less severe than that in wholesale, with offline sales showing improvement while online growth is weakening due to high base effects [2] - Overall discount rates in direct retail have deepened year-on-year, but the extent of discounting has narrowed compared to the first half of the fiscal year [2] - Total inventory at the end of the period has decreased year-on-year, with good turnover efficiency and a slight improvement in inventory age structure [2] - The network of stores is continuously optimized, with a 13.4% year-on-year and 1.3% quarter-on-quarter reduction in gross sales area of direct stores, and the pace of store closures has slowed compared to Q2 [2] Group 2: Collaboration with Core Brands - The collaboration with Nike is expected to deepen, as both companies face similar pressures in the Chinese market regarding foot traffic, sell-through rates, and inventory challenges [3] - Strategies include increased support for product recovery and adjustments to 2026 spring/summer orders to manage new inventory shipments [3] - Joint efforts are being made to regulate online market order and promote unified pricing management [3] - The company is anticipated to navigate through the downturn alongside its core clients, with potential for future recovery [3] Group 3: New Business Development - The company is steadily advancing its new business layout, with successful launches in specialized segments [4] - The running category has seen the establishment of the Ektos brand store, enhancing brand recognition through participation in major events like the Shanghai Marathon [4] - In the outdoor category, the exclusive agency for the high-end Norwegian outdoor brand Norrøna has been established, with plans for expansion into more cities [4] - The company is focused on creating new growth curves through the introduction of new categories [4] Group 4: Financial Guidance - The company has adopted a conservative financial outlook, noting increased volatility in terminal demand since December and significant operational pressures [5] - The previously set target of "year-on-year net profit flat" is expected to deviate within a controllable range [5] - The company maintains a "short-term cautious, long-term optimistic" stance [5] - Profit forecasts for FY2026-2028 are projected at HKD 1.285 billion, 1.397 billion, and 1.528 billion, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14.52X, 13.36X, and 12.21X [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Cinda Securities indicates that Tmall (06110) has experienced a high single-digit decline in total sales for its retail and wholesale business in Q3 of the fiscal year 2025/26, aligning with previous performance guidance trends [1] Group 1: Retail and Wholesale Performance - Retail business continues to outperform wholesale, with controllable discount and inventory situations reflecting strong retail management capabilities [2] - The decline in retail sales is less severe than that in wholesale, with offline sales showing improvement while online growth is weakening due to high base effects [2] - Overall discount rates in direct retail have deepened year-on-year, but the extent of discounting has narrowed compared to the first half of the fiscal year [2] - Total inventory at the end of the period has decreased year-on-year, maintaining good turnover efficiency, with a slight improvement in inventory age structure [2] - The network of stores is continuously optimized, with a 13.4% year-on-year and 1.3% quarter-on-quarter reduction in gross sales area of direct stores, and the pace of store closures has slowed compared to Q2 [2] Group 2: Collaboration with Core Brands - The collaboration with Nike is deepening, with both companies facing similar pressures in the Chinese market regarding foot traffic, sell-through rates, and inventory challenges [3] - Nike plans to enhance support through increased old goods recovery and inventory impairment processing, optimizing channel inventory structure, and adjusting orders for Spring/Summer 2026 to control new product shipments [3] - Both companies are focusing on regulating online market order and promoting unified price management, suggesting Tmall may rebound alongside its core clients [3] Group 3: New Business Development - The company is steadily advancing its new business layout, with successful establishment in specialized segments [4] - The running category has seen the launch of the running brand collective store Ektos, which has strengthened brand recognition and community connection through events like the Shanghai Marathon [4] - In the outdoor category, the exclusive agency of the high-end Norwegian outdoor brand Norr na has achieved breakthroughs, with the first store opened and plans for expansion in more cities [4] Group 4: Financial Guidance - The company has adopted a conservative financial outlook, noting increased volatility in terminal demand since December and significant operational pressure [5] - The previously set target of "year-on-year net profit flat" is expected to deviate within a controllable range [5] - The company maintains a "short-term cautious, long-term optimistic" attitude, with profit forecasts for FY2026-2028 estimated at HKD 1.285 billion, 1.397 billion, and 1.528 billion, corresponding to P/E ratios of 14.52X, 13.36X, and 12.21X respectively [5]

Group 1 - Hong Kong sportswear stocks experienced a decline in the afternoon, with Xtep International (01368.HK) falling over 5% [1] - Tmall (06110.HK) dropped more than 4.5%, while China Dongxiang (03818.HK), 361 Degrees (01361.HK), and Yue Yuen Industrial (00551.HK) all saw declines exceeding 3% [1]

Group 1 - The stock of Tabo (06110.HK) has dropped over 4%, currently down 4.32% at HKD 2.88 [2] - The trading volume reached HKD 17.4752 million [2]

Core Viewpoint - Tmall's stock has dropped over 4%, currently trading at HKD 2.88, with a trading volume of HKD 17.4752 million [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - For the third quarter of the fiscal year 2025/26, the total sales amount of the retail and wholesale business experienced a high single-digit decline year-on-year [1] - As of November 30, 2025, the gross sales area of direct-operated stores decreased by 1.3% compared to the previous quarter and by 13.4% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - According to Cinda Securities, the decline in total sales aligns with previous performance guidance trends, indicating that retail business continues to outperform wholesale business [1] - The company has demonstrated strong retail management capabilities, with controllable discount and inventory situations [1] Group 3: Financial Guidance - The company noted increased operational pressure due to heightened fluctuations in terminal demand since December, leading to an expected deviation from the previously set target of "year-on-year net profit remaining flat" within a controllable range [1] - The company maintains a "short-term cautious, long-term optimistic" outlook for the future [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company's retail and wholesale business experienced a high single-digit decline in total sales year-on-year, aligning with previous performance guidance [1] - Retail performance continues to outperform wholesale, with manageable discount and inventory situations reflecting strong retail management capabilities [2] - The company is expected to collaborate closely with its core brand, Nike, to navigate current market challenges, including foot traffic pressure and inventory issues [3] - The company is actively expanding into new business areas, with a focus on niche segments such as running and outdoor categories, which are anticipated to contribute to future growth [3] - The financial guidance for the year is conservative, with a cautious short-term outlook but a long-term optimistic perspective [3] Financial Summary - For FY2025, total revenue is projected at 27,013 million HKD, with a year-on-year decline of 7%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1,286 million HKD, reflecting a 42% decrease year-on-year [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY2025 is estimated at 0.21 HKD, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16.25 [6] - The company forecasts a gradual recovery in net profit, with projections of 1,285 million HKD for FY2026, 1,397 million HKD for FY2027, and 1,528 million HKD for FY2028, corresponding to P/E ratios of 14.52, 13.36, and 12.21 respectively [4][6]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in retail and wholesale sales for FY26Q3, with total sales decreasing by a high single-digit percentage year-on-year, and a reduction in gross sales area of direct stores by 1.3% quarter-on-quarter and 13.4% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Retail Strategy - The company is advancing an integrated retail network centered around physical stores, adopting a "1 (offline stores) + N (corresponding online multi-scenario layout)" model for diversified operations [1] - The company is implementing a "one product, one strategy" approach for retail store structural adjustments, focusing on innovation in store scenarios and formats that combine functional services with social attributes [1] - The online ecosystem is expanding with over 800 accounts on Douyin and WeChat video accounts, more than 3,600 mini-program stores, and over 3,700 stores participating in instant retail [1] Group 2: Brand Partnerships - The company is deepening its brand layout in the running and outdoor segments, having established exclusive operational partnerships with brands such as norda, soar, Ciele, and Norr na in mainland China [1] - The company is engaging core users through social media matrices, large-scale events, and community activities, while also utilizing diverse formats like online flagship stores and offline pop-up shops [1] - The company opened its first running concept store, ektos, in Shanghai, focusing on the needs of runners and integrating into the community to enhance user engagement [1] Group 3: User Engagement - The company is building a diversified user value system centered on consumer needs, with a cumulative user base of 89 million, and is enhancing user profiles through multi-platform information integration [1] - The company upgraded its membership system, linking the original member IP "Tao Xiaoxia" with daily scenarios and introducing a cost-saving seasonal card for frequent consumers [1] - To resonate with younger consumers, the company is activating community connections through diverse IP co-branding marketing activities and offline community experience events [1] Group 4: Financial Forecast - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting revenues of 26.5 billion RMB, 27.3 billion RMB, and 28.6 billion RMB for FY26-28, with net profits of 1.3 billion RMB, 1.5 billion RMB, and 1.7 billion RMB, and EPS of 0.21 RMB, 0.24 RMB, and 0.27 RMB respectively [2]

零售延续承压，折扣幅度加深。FY2026Q3 零售流水同比高单下滑，预计零售好于批发。 直营折扣预计同比加深，库存保持去化，预计后续零售及折扣仍存在一定压力。 门店下滑收窄，后续有望企稳。FY2026Q3 直营店毛销售面积较上一季末减少 1.3%，较去年同期减少 13.4%，预计主因公司持续优化线下门店网络，谨慎开改店，适度淘汰尾部店和亏损店，预计后续门店 数量有望企稳。 机构：长江证券 研究员：于旭辉/柯睿/陈信志 事件描述 滔搏发布FY2026Q3（2025 年9 月-2025 年11 月）零售数据，零售流水同比高单下滑，截至2025 年11 月 30 日，直营门店毛销售面积较上一季末减少 1.3%，较去年同期减少13.4%。 事件评论 风险提示 1、零售恢复不及预期； 2、海外品牌去库不及预期； 3、多品牌整合不及预期。 短期压力仍存，中长期保持乐观。短期而言，预计公司对FY2027 Nike 订货仍保守审慎态度，但Nike 主 动积极的支持货品支持政策预计对毛利率有所贡献。中长期而言，考虑Nike 回归专业运动，优化市场 管理，后续价格及折扣有望逐步企稳，中长期保持乐观。 综合而言，公司当前处于经营周 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company is currently experiencing short-term operational pressure, and recovery is expected to take time [6]. - Retail sales have shown a decline, with direct store sales area decreasing by 1.3% quarter-on-quarter and 13.4% year-on-year as of November 30, 2025 [2][6]. - The company is optimizing its offline store network by cautiously closing underperforming stores, which is expected to stabilize the number of stores in the future [8]. - Short-term pressures remain, but there is a long-term optimistic outlook due to Nike's supportive policies and market management improvements [8]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.24 billion, 1.36 billion, and 1.50 billion yuan for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14, 12, and 11 [8][10]. Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Performance - Retail sales continue to face pressure, with deeper discounting expected. The retail performance is anticipated to be better than wholesale [8]. - The company is expected to maintain inventory reduction efforts, but retail and discount pressures are likely to persist [8]. Store Network - The decline in store sales area has narrowed, and there is hope for stabilization in the future as the company optimizes its store network [8]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 25.21 billion, 25.97 billion, and 26.75 billion yuan for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028, with a year-on-year change of -7%, 3%, and 3% respectively [10]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) are 0.20, 0.22, and 0.24 yuan for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 [10].

Company Performance - The company reported a total sales decline in retail and wholesale business by high single digits year-on-year for 3QFY26, with direct store gross sales area decreasing by 1.3% compared to the end of August [1] - The performance in 3QFY26 was in line with the company's expectations, reflecting weak terminal demand in the sports footwear and apparel market [1] - Retail channels outperformed wholesale, with offline channels showing slight improvement compared to 1HFY26 due to a low base [1] Inventory and Discounts - The company effectively managed the sales rhythm of new and old products, resulting in a year-on-year decrease in total inventory by the end of November while maintaining good turnover efficiency [1] - Retail discounts deepened year-on-year due to the increased proportion of online channels and promotional environment, although the rate of deepening narrowed compared to the previous quarter [1] Management Outlook - Since December, demand has continued to fluctuate, with management maintaining a cautious outlook due to weather variations and holiday timing issues [1] - Management emphasized the importance of discount and healthy operational management, acknowledging challenges in achieving the annual performance guidance, but expects better results from cost optimization in 2HFY26 [1] - The company plans to continue collaborating with key brands to optimize the market environment and actively expand into running and outdoor segments, aiming to become a one-stop operational partner for brands in the Chinese market [1] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Due to weak demand and ongoing adjustments from key brands, the company has lowered its FY26/27 EPS forecasts by 4% and 13% to 0.20 and 0.23 HKD respectively [2] - The current stock price corresponds to 14 and 12 times FY26/27 P/E, with a target price reduction of 7% to 3.88 HKD, indicating a 24% upside potential from the current price [2]