Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market showed a mixed performance with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.13% to 25,808.79 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.14% to 5,496.52 points. The National Enterprises Index fell by 0.03% to 8,911.15 points, and the Red Chip Index decreased by 0.14% to 4,061.97 points [1] Company News - Vanke Enterprises extended the grace period for the repayment of its fourth tranche of medium-term notes (total principal of 2 billion yuan) to 30 trading days [2] - Cathay Pacific reported a passenger count of 2.5304 million in November, marking a 26% year-on-year increase [3] - China General Nuclear Power's units 1 and 2 in Huizhou are in the debugging phase, with expected operational dates adjusted to the first half and second half of 2026, respectively [3] - Nanshan Aluminum International has increased its annual production capacity of alumina to 4 million tons [7] - He Yu Pharmaceutical's CSF-1R inhibitor received approval from China's NMPA [5] - Shengnuo Pharmaceutical completed Phase I trials for its drug STP707 and submitted a clinical research report to the FDA [6] Industry Insights - Huatai Securities noted that the market is still in a left-side layout phase, with a strong consensus on an early spring rally, but year-end supply and demand pressures may create uncertainty for a "Santa rally" [10] - CITIC Construction pointed out that after a period of single-sided growth in September, the Hong Kong market has experienced adjustments, with some quality assets returning to a high cost-performance ratio [10] - Guotai Junan Securities highlighted that historical data shows strong performance in U.S. stocks during year-end, despite uncertainties regarding interest rates and inflation paths for 2026 [11] - GF Fund mentioned that while short-term liquidity disturbances may impact the market, the upward trend in the AI industry cycle remains intact, suggesting that the market structure for Hong Kong stocks will not change [11]

格隆汇12月24日｜中金发表报告指，滔搏今年11月底止第三财季符合公司预期，后续展望审慎。考虑需 求偏弱及主力品牌仍在调整期，该行下调公司2026及27财年每股盈利预测4%及13%至0.2及0.23元，相 应下调目标价7%至3.88港元，维持"跑赢行业"评级。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the sports retail operator, Tmall, continues to experience a decline in sales, with a high single-digit decrease in total sales for the third quarter of fiscal year 2026, which is slightly weaker than the overall performance in the first half of the year [1] - Online sales growth remains better than offline channels, but the growth rate for online sales has slightly slowed compared to the first half of the year due to base effects, while offline performance has improved slightly compared to the first half [1] - Nike's impact is significant on Tmall's sales decline, with Nike's sales in China dropping 16% year-on-year to $1.423 billion, affected by decreased foot traffic and lower sell-through rates in stores [1] Group 2 - The sports market is under pressure, with Peak's direct sales segment reporting a cumulative loss of over 130 million yuan from January to July, leading to the divestment of three subsidiaries [2] - Anta Sports reported low single-digit positive growth in retail sales for its brand products, while FILA also recorded low single-digit positive growth, indicating a significant drop compared to previous years [2] - Li Ning experienced a direct sales decline, with a mid-single-digit decrease in retail revenue for the third quarter [2] Group 3 - A positive development for Tmall is that Nike is placing greater emphasis on this distribution channel and plans to strengthen cooperation with distributors like Tmall [3] Group 4 - Tmall is downsizing its scale, with a 1.3% reduction in gross sales area of direct stores compared to the previous quarter and a 13.4% decrease year-on-year, while also optimizing its offline store network [4] - The company plans to close fewer stores this year compared to last year, with a more significant reduction in the second half of the fiscal year compared to the first half [4] Group 5 - Tmall is also expanding its offerings, such as the launch of its running brand collective store, Ektos, at the Shanghai Marathon Sports Expo, featuring nearly 20 brands, and the introduction of the Norwegian outdoor brand Norrona through a pop-up store in Shanghai [5] Group 6 - Overall, Tmall's transformation needs to accelerate in the current market environment [6] Group 7 - On December 23, Tmall's stock closed at HKD 2.98 per share, reflecting a decline of 4.49% [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that due to significant disruptions in offline retail, the profit forecast for Tmall (滔搏) has been slightly lowered, with expected net profits for FY2026-2028 being 1.22 billion, 1.33 billion, and 1.49 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year change of -5.3%, +9.6%, and +11.5% [1] - The reasonable valuation range has been adjusted to 3.2 to 3.5 HKD, down from the previous range of 3.8 to 4.0 HKD, corresponding to a PE ratio of 14 to 15 times for FY2027 [1] Group 2 - In Q3 of FY2026, the total sales amount for the retail and wholesale business recorded a high single-digit decline year-on-year, with the gross sales area of direct-operated stores decreasing by 1.3% quarter-on-quarter and 13.4% year-on-year [2] - The online channel's growth rate remains better than that of the offline channel, although the growth rate has slightly slowed compared to the first half of the year due to base effects [3] - The company is optimizing its offline store network by cautiously closing underperforming stores and focusing on extending online channels for offline stores, with a significant reduction in the number of store closures expected this year compared to last year [3] Group 3 - The discount rate has deepened year-on-year due to the increased proportion of online channels, but the extent of discounting has narrowed compared to the first half of the fiscal year [4] - Nike's Q2 FY2026 performance slightly exceeded previous guidance and market expectations, with revenue of 12.4 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 1%, while the Greater China region continues to face significant pressure [4] - Adidas reported Q3 results that fell short of market expectations for revenue but exceeded expectations for operating profit, with a 12% year-on-year increase in revenue for the Adidas brand [5] Group 4 - The company has maintained a strong growth momentum for its main brand, Adidas, with expectations of double-digit growth for FY2025, while Nike's performance in FY2026 Q2 was better than previous guidance but faced challenges in the Greater China market [6] - The company has been increasing its focus on outdoor and running segments, becoming the exclusive agent for several outdoor brands in the Chinese market and opening a running brand collective store [6]

Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities has slightly lowered the profit forecast for Tmall (06110) due to significant disruptions in offline retail, expecting net profits for FY2026-2028 to be 1.22/1.33/1.49 billion yuan, down from previous estimates of 1.29/1.41/1.57 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year change of -5.3%/+9.6%/+11.5% [1] Group 1 - The total sales amount for the retail and wholesale business in Q3 FY2026 recorded a high single-digit decline year-on-year [2] - As of November 30, the gross sales area of direct-operated stores decreased by 1.3% compared to the previous quarter and by 13.4% year-on-year [2] - The online channel's growth rate remains better than that of the offline channel, but the growth rate has slightly slowed compared to the first half of the year due to base effects [2] Group 2 - The total inventory at the end of Q3 decreased year-on-year, maintaining good turnover efficiency, but the promotional atmosphere in the industry has made it challenging to manage inventory healthily [3] - Nike's FY2026 Q2 revenue was $12.4 billion, up 1% year-on-year, slightly better than previous guidance and consensus expectations, with regional performance varying significantly [3] - The gross margin decline was less than previously guided, with North America leading revenue growth while the Greater China region faced significant pressure [3] Group 3 - Future Q3 revenue is expected to decline by a low single-digit percentage, with gross margin expected to decrease by approximately 175-225 basis points [4] - Adidas' Q3 revenue did not meet consensus expectations, but operating profit exceeded expectations, with a 12% year-on-year growth in brand revenue [4] - Adidas has raised its full-year guidance due to strong brand momentum and better-than-expected business performance [4] Group 4 - The company is optimistic about its operational resilience and long-term cash returns [5] - The retail pressure remains high with a high single-digit decline, but inventory improvement and a reduction in discount rates have been observed [6] - The company has been increasing its focus on outdoor and running segments, becoming the exclusive agent for several outdoor brands in the Chinese market [6]

Group 1: Company Performance - Tmall's sales continue to decline, with a high single-digit decrease in pre-tax total sales for Q3 FY2026, slightly weaker than the overall performance in the first half of the year [1] - Nike's sales in China fell by 16% year-on-year to $1.423 billion, impacted by reduced store traffic and lower sell-through rates [1] - Li Ning reported a mid-single-digit decline in retail sales for Q3, excluding its youth brand [2] Group 2: Market Trends - The sports retail market is under pressure, with Peak's direct sales segment suffering losses exceeding 130 million yuan from January to July [2] - Anta Sports reported low single-digit positive growth in retail sales for its brand products, indicating a significant drop compared to previous years [2] - The overall market environment suggests that Tmall's transformation needs to accelerate [6] Group 3: Strategic Adjustments - Tmall is reducing its scale, with a 1.3% decrease in gross sales area of direct stores compared to the previous quarter and a 13.4% decrease year-on-year [4] - The company plans to optimize its offline store network by cautiously closing underperforming stores and focusing on extending online channels [4] - Tmall is also expanding its offerings, such as launching a running brand store and introducing a pop-up store for the Norwegian outdoor brand Norrona [5][6] Group 4: Collaboration and Future Outlook - Nike is increasing its focus on collaborating with distributors like Tmall, indicating a potential shift in strategy to enhance sales through partnerships [3]

Group 1 - The core sales amount of TBO (滔搏) in Q3 has declined significantly, continuing the trend observed in H1, with total retail and wholesale sales dropping by a high single-digit percentage year-on-year, maintaining the same decline rate as Q2 [2] - Retail performance has outperformed wholesale, with slight improvements in offline retail and a slowdown in online retail due to the impact of last year's base [2] - The company expects a significant reduction in store closures for FY26 compared to FY25, maintaining its annual guidance of stable net profit and improved net profit margin [3] Group 2 - NIKE has strengthened its collaboration with TBO, focusing on inventory management and reducing promotional activities, as the Greater China region's recovery lags behind global trends [4] - Key initiatives include updating core store trials, reducing promotional intensity, and accelerating the clearance of outdated inventory, with a specific mention of enhancing cooperation with distributors like TBO [4] - TBO has launched exclusive pop-up stores for niche brands, such as Norrøna in Shanghai, indicating a strategic move to diversify its offerings [4]

Group 1 - The core sales amount of Tmall (滔搏) in Q3 has declined significantly, continuing the trend observed in H1, with total retail and wholesale sales down by a high single-digit percentage year-on-year [2] - The company expects a significant reduction in store closures for FY26, maintaining its annual guidance unchanged, with net profit expected to remain flat year-on-year and net profit margin to improve [3] - The collaboration with NIKE has strengthened, focusing on inventory recovery and reducing promotional efforts, as NIKE aims to enhance brand positioning in the Greater China region [4] Group 2 - The retail performance showed improvement in offline sales, while online sales experienced a slight slowdown, with a higher proportion of revenue coming from online channels leading to deeper retail discounts year-on-year [2] - The company's direct-operated store sales area decreased by 1.3% quarter-on-quarter and 13.4% year-on-year, although the pace of net store closures has slowed compared to Q2 [3] - NIKE's revenue in the Greater China region has seen a neutral decline of 16%, indicating that the region is a focus for adjustments in FY26 [4]

Group 1: Food and Beverage Industry - The EU's anti-subsidy measures on dairy products have been implemented, which is expected to accelerate the domestic substitution in deep processing of dairy products. The measures include temporary anti-subsidy deposits on EU dairy imports starting December 23, 2025 [3] - From 2020 to March 2024, EU dairy product imports accounted for 23.6% to 34.6% of China's total dairy imports. The imposition of anti-subsidy taxes is likely to drive the deep processing business to shift domestically [3] - Domestic dairy companies such as Miao Ke Lan Duo, Yili, Mengniu, and Li Gao are focusing on deep processing, with current domestic milk prices being lower than overseas prices, which may further accelerate domestic substitution [3] - The deep processing sector is expected to enhance the consumption of raw milk, thereby improving the supply-demand dynamics in the upstream raw milk industry [3] Group 2: Electronics Industry - Lingyi Technology (002600.SZ) plans to acquire a 35% stake in Limin Da for 875 million RMB, gaining control over 52.78% of voting rights. This acquisition will integrate Limin Da into the company's consolidated financial statements [5] - Limin Da specializes in thermal management solutions for enterprise-level servers, providing key hardware products such as liquid cooling connectors and modules. The company has established a strong customer base, including leading clients in the overseas computing industry [5] - For the first nine months of 2025, Limin Da reported revenues of 486 million RMB and a net profit of 21 million RMB, showing significant improvement in profitability compared to the previous year [5] - The acquisition is expected to enhance the company's capabilities in the server liquid cooling business, reduce development costs, and improve product validation cycles, thereby expanding the scale and profitability of the AI hardware server segment [5]

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月23日 滔搏（06110.HK） 三季度流水下滑高单位数，折扣同比加深幅度收窄 |  | 公司研究·海外公司快评 |  | 纺织服饰·服装家纺 |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 丁诗洁 | 0755-81981391 | dingshijie@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520040004 | | 证券分析师： | 刘佳琪 | 010-88005446 | liujiaqi@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070003 | 事项： 公司公告：2026 财年第三季度，集团零售及批发业务之总销售金额按年同比录得高单位数下降。截至 2025 年 11 月 30 日，直营门店毛销售面积较上一季末减少 1.3%，较去年同期减少 13.4%。 国信纺服观点：1)流水增长：2026 财年第三季度销售额同比下滑高单位数，线上渠道增速仍好于线下渠道， 但受基数影响，分化较上半年收窄；2）库存折扣：三季度末库存总额同比下降，与销售表现方向一致， 保持良 ...