c 证券研究报告 | 2024年10月25日 滔搏（06110.HK） 上半财年收入与净利润下滑，现金流充裕保持高派息率 优于大市 上半财年收入与净利润下滑，现金流充裕保持高派息率。2025 上半财年受到 宏观需求疲软以及线下客流下滑影响，收入同比-7.9%至 130.5 亿元；主要 受毛利率下滑、负向经营杠杆影响，归母净利润同比-34.6%至 8.7 亿元。分 商业模式看：零售/批发渠道分别同比-8.9%/-2.2%；零售模式分场景看，线 上渠道表现好于线下，直营线上占整体直营销售额比例提升至 30%，24 财年 底占比为 20-30%中段。分品牌看：主力品牌/其他品牌分别同比-8.1%/-6.5%。 上半财年毛利率同比-3.7 百分点至 41.1%，影响毛利率主要因素包括：折扣 率同比加深、毛利率较低的批发渠道占比提升、存货上升产生大约 9000 万 左右的存货拨备。同时受负经营杠杆影响，总体费用率小幅提升 0.2 百分点 至 33.1%。净利率同比-2.7 百分点至 6.7%。公司仍保持良好的现金创收能力， 经营活动现金流净额为 26.1 亿元，同比+2.5%，净现比为 3.0。充裕的现金 流为派息奠定 ...

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Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 7.9% year-on-year in FY2025H1, with a net profit drop of 34.7% to 870 million RMB, attributed to a challenging consumer environment and increased terminal discounts [1] - Despite short-term performance pressures, the company continues to implement a high dividend strategy, declaring an interim dividend of 0.14 RMB per share, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 99% and a dividend yield of 5.4% based on the closing price on October 23 [1] - The company is expanding its brand partnerships and optimizing its store structure to ensure long-term growth, including becoming the exclusive operator for the high-end outdoor brand Norda in China [1][2] Revenue and Profitability - For FY2025H1, the company's revenue was 13.055 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 41.1%, down 3.6 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company's retail and wholesale businesses both saw declines, with wholesale revenue down 2.2% to 2.04 billion RMB and retail revenue down 8.9% to 10.92 billion RMB [2] - The company anticipates a further revenue decline in FY2025, projecting a nearly 40% drop in net profit due to ongoing market uncertainties [6] Business Model and Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing its online presence, with over 2,500 stores opening mini-programs and a 200% increase in sales through Douyin live streaming, making it the top player in the outdoor sports category on the platform [2] - The company has increased its membership base to 81 million, with member sales accounting for 93.7% of total sales, indicating strong consumer loyalty [2] Financial Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to decline to 26.523 billion RMB in FY2025, with net profit expected to drop to 1.337 billion RMB [10][14] - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for FY2025 to FY2027 to 1.337 billion RMB, 1.476 billion RMB, and 1.639 billion RMB respectively, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 12 times for FY2025 [6][10]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating with a target price of HKD 2.84 [1] Core Views - The company's H1 FY2024/25 revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 7.9% and 34.7% YoY respectively, with a dividend payout ratio of 99.4% [1] - The company's performance is under pressure due to weak retail demand, but it maintains a high dividend policy and expects retail recovery driven by policy stimulus [2] - The company is adjusting its offline store structure, focusing on store efficiency, and expanding its online presence through live streaming [2] Financial Performance - H1 FY2024/25 revenue was RMB 13.05 billion, down 7.9% YoY, while net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 870 million, down 34.7% YoY [1] - Gross margin decreased by 3.6 percentage points to 41.1%, mainly due to increased promotional efforts and higher online sales proportion [1] - Operating cash flow increased by 2.5% YoY to RMB 2.61 billion in H1 FY2024/25 [1] Business Segments - Revenue from the main brands (Nike + Adidas) decreased by 8.1% YoY, accounting for 87.0% of total revenue [1] - Retail and wholesale revenue decreased by 8.9% and 2.2% YoY respectively, with retail accounting for 83.7% of total revenue [1] - The number of directly operated stores decreased by 5.4% QoQ to 5,813 as of August 2024, with average store size increasing by 4.8% YoY [1] Future Outlook - The company expects retail improvement driven by recent consumption stimulus policies, particularly in the sports sector [2] - The company has revised its profit forecasts for FY2025-2027, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to decrease by 11%, 4%, and 3% respectively compared to previous forecasts [2] - The company's EPS for FY2025/26/27 is forecasted to be RMB 0.21/0.26/0.31, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12/10/8 [2] Operational Adjustments - The company is focusing on optimizing store efficiency, opening new stores for main brands and professional vertical brands, and closing low-performing stores [2] - The company has significantly expanded its online presence, with over 2,500 mini-program stores and over 300 live streaming accounts as of August 2024 [2]

Revenue and Profit Performance - Revenue for the six months ended August 31, 2024, was RMB 13,054.7 million, a decrease of 7.9% compared to RMB 14,176.5 million in the same period in 2023[1][2] - Net profit attributable to equity holders was RMB 873.8 million, a 34.7% decrease from RMB 1,337.2 million in 2023, with a net profit margin of 6.7%, compared to 9.4% in 2023[1][2] - Total revenue for the first six months of 2024 was RMB 13,054.7 million, a decrease from RMB 14,176.5 million in the same period of 2023[13] - Company revenue declined 7.9% year-on-year to RMB 13,054.7 million, with gross margin down 3.6 percentage points to 41.1%[29] - Net profit attributable to equity holders decreased 34.7% year-on-year to RMB 873.8 million, with profit margin down 2.7 percentage points to 6.7%[29] - The company's revenue for the six months ended August 31, 2024, was RMB 13,054.7 million, a decrease of 7.9% compared to the same period in 2023[42] - Operating profit for the six months ended August 31, 2024, was RMB 1,120.9 million, a decrease of 35.1% year-on-year[42] - Net profit attributable to equity holders for the six months ended August 31, 2024, was RMB 873.8 million, a decrease of 34.7% compared to the same period in 2023[42] - Total revenue decreased by 7.9% to RMB 13,054.7 million[44] - Operating profit decreased by 35.1% to RMB 1,120.9 million[45] - Net profit attributable to equity holders decreased by 34.7% to RMB 873.8 million[45] Gross Profit and Margin - Gross profit for the period was RMB 5,362.4 million, down 15.4% from RMB 6,340.8 million in 2023, with a gross margin of 41.1%, compared to 44.7% in 2023[1][2] - Gross profit decreased by 15.4% to RMB 5,362.4 million, with gross margin dropping to 41.1% from 44.7%[46] Operating Profit and Margin - Operating profit decreased to RMB 1,120.9 million, a 35.1% decline from RMB 1,725.9 million in 2023, with an operating profit margin of 8.6%, down from 12.2%[1][2] Earnings Per Share - Basic and diluted earnings per share were RMB 14.09 cents, down from RMB 21.56 cents in 2023[1][2] - Basic earnings per share were RMB 14.09 cents, a decline from RMB 21.56 cents in the same period last year[19] - Basic earnings per share decreased by 34.7% to RMB 14.09 cents[51] Inventory and Turnover - Inventory turnover days increased to 148.3 days, compared to 140.9 days in 2023[1] - Inventory increased by 6.4% YoY to RMB 6,119.9 million as of August 31, 2024, but decreased by 2.6% sequentially[34] - Inventory increased by 6.4% to RMB 6,119.9 million[47] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets as of August 31, 2024, were RMB 14,915.6 million, up from RMB 14,544.0 million as of February 29, 2024[4][5] - Total liabilities increased to RMB 5,409.3 million as of August 31, 2024, from RMB 4,693.6 million as of February 29, 2024[4][5] - Net asset value decreased to RMB 9,506.3 million as of August 31, 2024, from RMB 9,850.4 million as of February 29, 2024[5] Cash Flow and Financing - The company maintained a net cash position with a leverage ratio of 0% as of August 31, 2024[1] - Operating cash flow increased to RMB 2,613.5 million in the first six months of 2024, up from RMB 2,550.8 million in the same period of 2023[6] - Net cash used in investing activities was RMB 110.4 million in the first six months of 2024, compared to RMB 43.6 million in the same period of 2023[6] - Net cash used in financing activities decreased to RMB 1,619.5 million in the first six months of 2024 from RMB 1,716.4 million in the same period of 2023[6] - The company's cash and cash equivalents increased to RMB 2,839.6 million at the end of August 2024, up from RMB 1,956.0 million at the beginning of the period[6] - Cash and cash equivalents stood at RMB 2,839.6 million as of August 31, 2024, with operating cash flow increasing 2.5% year-on-year to RMB 2,613.5 million[29] - Operating cash flow increased by RMB 22.2 million to RMB 2,702.9 million for the six months ended August 31, 2024, compared to RMB 2,680.7 million for the same period in 2023[53] - Net cash used in investing activities was RMB 110.4 million for the six months ended August 31, 2024, compared to RMB 43.6 million for the same period in 2023[53] - Net cash used in financing activities was RMB 1,619.5 million for the six months ended August 31, 2024, compared to RMB 1,716.4 million for the same period in 2023[53] - The company's net cash position improved to RMB 2,039.6 million as of August 31, 2024, compared to RMB 1,362.0 million as of February 29, 2024[53] - The company's leverage ratio remained in a net cash position as of August 31, 2024, with net cash exceeding short-term borrowings by RMB 2,039.6 million[54] - The company repaid short-term borrowings of RMB 720.1 million and paid dividends totaling RMB 1,240.3 million during the six months ended August 31, 2024[53] Expenses and Costs - Total sales, distribution, and administrative expenses amounted to RMB 12,009.2 million, a decrease from RMB 12,498.3 million in the same period last year[15] - Selling and distribution expenses decreased to RMB 3,821.9 million, accounting for 29.3% of total revenue[47] - General and administrative expenses decreased to RMB 495.0 million, accounting for 3.8% of total revenue[47] - Total employee costs for the six months ended August 31, 2024, were RMB 1,361.5 million, accounting for 10.4% of the company's revenue[56] Taxation - Income tax expenses totaled RMB 234.6 million, down from RMB 370.9 million in the prior year[17] - The company's subsidiaries in China are subject to a 25% corporate income tax rate, while those in Hong Kong are subject to a 16.5% profits tax rate[18] Dividends - The company declared an interim dividend of RMB 14.00 cents per share, totaling RMB 868.2 million[22] - Interim dividend for the fiscal year ending February 28, 2025, was declared at RMB 0.14 per ordinary share, with a payout ratio of 99.4%, up from 74.2% in the same period last year[29] - The company declared an interim dividend of RMB 0.14 per share, totaling RMB 868.2 million, to be paid on or around December 19, 2024[57] Store and Sales Performance - The company adjusted offline store network layout, focusing on efficiency and quality, with new stores mainly targeting core brand flagship stores and professional vertical brands[30] - The number of directly operated stores decreased by 6.4% YoY to 5,813 as of August 31, 2024, with gross sales area down by 1.9% YoY[31] - Total sales area decreased by 1.9% YoY, while single-store sales area increased by 4.8% YoY as of August 31, 2024[32] - Retail business revenue decreased by 8.9% to RMB 10,924.7 million, accounting for 83.7% of total revenue[44] - Wholesale business revenue decreased by 2.2% to RMB 2,035.4 million, accounting for 15.6% of total revenue[44] Online and Digital Sales - The company's mini-program stores exceeded 2,500, with live-streaming accounts surpassing 300, both showing significant YoY growth[33] - TikTok live-streaming sales increased by approximately 200% YoY, ranking first in the sports and outdoor category on the platform[33] - Direct online sales accounted for about 30% of total direct sales, including both public and private domains[33] User and Membership Data - The company's user base expanded to 81 million, with new user acquisition strategies including mini-program pages and group-buying tools[36] - The company implemented personalized product recommendations and marketing strategies through refined user segmentation and behavior analysis[36] - The company's repurchase members contributed approximately 60-70% of the total member consumption, showing stable year-on-year performance[37] - High-value members, although accounting for only mid-single digits in the total number of consuming members, contributed nearly 40% of the total sales, with significantly higher average spending per customer[37] - The cumulative number of users reached 81.0 million as of August 31, 2024[38] - Members contributed 93.7% of the total in-store retail sales (including VAT) during the period[38] Brand and Product Strategy - Revenue from core brands (Nike and Adidas) accounted for 87.0% of total revenue, while other brands contributed 12.3%[43] - The company expanded its brand cooperation matrix, including partnerships with HOKA ONE ONE, KAILAS, and norda, to capture growth potential in niche outdoor and professional sports segments[39] - The company plans to focus on omnichannel retail, user engagement, innovative formats, and services to drive long-term growth[41] Employee and Workforce - The total number of employees decreased by 3.2% YoY to 28,941 as of August 31, 2024[35] - The company had 28,941 employees as of August 31, 2024, a decrease from 29,458 employees as of February 29, 2024[56] Investments and Capital Expenditure - The company invested RMB 157.3 million in property, plant, and equipment, and intangible assets during the six months ended August 31, 2024[53] Corporate Governance - The Remuneration Committee consists of three members, including two independent non-executive directors, with Mr. Hua Bin as the chairman[62] - The Remuneration Committee is responsible for recommending compensation policies and structures for directors and senior management, as well as reviewing performance-based remuneration[62] - No directors have waived or agreed to waive any remuneration, and the company has not paid any compensation for joining or leaving the company[62] - The Nomination Committee is responsible for identifying, screening, and recommending suitable candidates for the board, with Mr. Wong Wai Tak as the chairman[63] - The company maintained the minimum public shareholding requirement as per the listing rules[65] - The board of directors includes executive directors Mr. Yu Wu and Mr. Leung Kam Kwan, non-executive directors Mr. Sheng Fang, Ms. Weng Wan Jing, and Ms. Hu Xiaoling, and independent non-executive directors Mr. Lam Yiu Kin, Mr. Hua Bin, and Mr. Wong Wai Tak[65] - The interim results announcement was published on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange website and the company's website[65] - The company did not purchase, sell, or redeem any of its listed securities during the review period[64] Economic and Market Context - China's GDP grew 5.0% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, while total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7%, below GDP growth[28] Accounting Standards - The company adopted new accounting standards and amendments, including IFRS 16 and IAS 1, effective from March 1, 2024[9] - The company's financial performance is not expected to be significantly impacted by new accounting standards and amendments that will become effective in the future[11] Geographic Revenue and Assets - All of the company's revenue is derived from external customers in China, and the majority of its non-current assets are located in China[12] Trade Receivables and Payables - Trade receivables stood at RMB 949.4 million, with 97.4% of receivables aged within 30 days[24] - Trade payables increased to RMB 846.8 million as of August 31, 2024, up from RMB 387.1 million as of February 29, 2024, with 0-30 days aging accounting for the majority[25] Borrowings and Interest Rates - Short-term borrowings rose to RMB 950.0 million as of August 31, 2024, compared to RMB 720.1 million as of February 29, 2024, with unsecured loans at RMB 500.0 million and secured loans at RMB 450.0 million[26] - The weighted average annual interest rate for unsecured bank loans decreased to 2.1% as of August 31, 2024, from 2.8% as of February 29, 2024[27] Inventory Costs - Inventory costs recognized as expenses and included in cost of sales were RMB 7,601.7 million, down from RMB 7,824.2 million in the previous year[23] Net Financing Costs - Net financing costs were RMB (12.5) million, compared to RMB (18.3) million in the previous year[16] Other Income - Other income, including government subsidies, increased to RMB 77.2 million in the first six months of 2024 from RMB 46.2 million in the same period of 2023[14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company expects a decline of approximately 35% in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of the 2025 fiscal year, primarily due to weak consumer demand and increased promotional efforts [2] - The main brands, Nike and Adidas, show contrasting outlooks, with Nike being cautious and expecting a decline in revenue, while Adidas remains optimistic about growth [2] - The company plans to implement various measures to manage inventory effectively and will introduce niche brands to enhance its brand matrix [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY2025, the company forecasts a revenue of 26,146 million, a decrease of 9.6% from FY2024 [3] - The net profit for FY2025 is projected at 1,488 million, reflecting a decline of 32.8% compared to FY2024 [3] - The EPS for FY2025 is estimated to be 0.24, with a P/E ratio of 8 [3] Market Data - The total market capitalization is 138.29 billion HKD, with a total share capital of 6.201 billion shares [5] - The stock has traded between 2.11 and 6.96 HKD over the past year, with a turnover rate of 26.9% in the last three months [5] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin is expected to be 41.1% for FY2025, with a net profit margin of 5.7% [7] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 14.9% for FY2025 [7] Valuation Metrics - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio, exceeding 100% in the previous years, indicating strong dividend attributes [2] - The projected P/B ratio remains stable at around 1.3 for the upcoming years [3][7]

12 Sep 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Topsports (6110 HK) Grim outlook but dividend is attractive What is new? Topsports reported a profit warning for 1H25E (ending Aug 2024). The Company is now expecting an around 35% YoY net profit drop in 1H25E (vs RMB 1.3bn in 1H24), due to: 1) worse-than-expected offline traffic, hence a meaningful SSS drop and significant operating deleverage and 2) decline in GP margin as a result of higher retail discounts and greater sales ...

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源证券 商贸零售/专业连锁Ⅱ 公 司 研 究 滔搏（06110.HK） 2024 年 09 月 11 日 投资评级：买入（维持） 日期 2024/9/11 | --- | --- | |-------------------------|-------------| | | | | 当前股价 ( 港元 ) | 2.230 | | 一年最高最低 ( 港元 ) | 6.960/2.110 | | 总市值 ( 亿港元 ) | 138.29 | | 流通市值 ( 亿港元 ) | 138.29 | | 总股本 ( 亿股 ) | 62.01 | | 流通港股 ( 亿股 ) | 62.01 | | 近 3 个月换手率 (%) | 17.11 | 股价走势图 滔搏 恒生指数 -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 2023-09 2024-01 2024-05 2024-09 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《Q1 线下客流承压，新增合作哥伦比 亚加码户外领域—港股公司信息更新 报告》-2024.6.28 《FY2024 维持高派息，全域运营能力 进一步加强—港股公司信息更新报 告》-2024.5.25 《滔搏估 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司研究 gszqdatemark 2024 09 08 年 月 日 滔搏（06110.HK） 短期销售有所波动，长期持续深化运营升级 公司 3-5 月销售下降中单位数，6 月份以来我们判断公司终端销售或仍有一定压 力。根据公司此前披露，2024 年 3-5 月公司全渠道销售额同比下降中单位数，我 们判断公司相对较弱的销售表现主要系消费环境波动对线下门店客流造成影响， 当前国内线下奥莱业态表现或较好，而滔搏门店多为正价店，因此受消费环境波 动影响较大；受益于公司电商业务运营能力的提升，3-5 月电商渠道则保持快速增 长势头。6 月份以来，我们判断公司电商业务或保持较优异表现，线下门店客流仍 处于波动状态，从数据上来看同业公司宝胜国际 6 月/7 月销售同比分别14.1%/-10.6%，综合考虑下我们判断滔搏近期流水或存在一定压力。 ➢ 因业务模式不同，滔搏短期经营情况与其上游客户经营情况并不完全一致。 作为滔搏的核心客户，adidas 以及 Nike 近期也陆续发布季报，货币中性基 础上 adidas 2024 年 Q1/Q2 大中华区营收同比分别+8%/+9%，Nike 2024 年 3- ...