证券研究报告 | 公司研究 gszqdatemark 2024 09 08 年 月 日 滔搏（06110.HK） 短期销售有所波动，长期持续深化运营升级 公司 3-5 月销售下降中单位数，6 月份以来我们判断公司终端销售或仍有一定压 力。根据公司此前披露，2024 年 3-5 月公司全渠道销售额同比下降中单位数，我 们判断公司相对较弱的销售表现主要系消费环境波动对线下门店客流造成影响， 当前国内线下奥莱业态表现或较好，而滔搏门店多为正价店，因此受消费环境波 动影响较大；受益于公司电商业务运营能力的提升，3-5 月电商渠道则保持快速增 长势头。6 月份以来，我们判断公司电商业务或保持较优异表现，线下门店客流仍 处于波动状态，从数据上来看同业公司宝胜国际 6 月/7 月销售同比分别14.1%/-10.6%，综合考虑下我们判断滔搏近期流水或存在一定压力。 ➢ 因业务模式不同，滔搏短期经营情况与其上游客户经营情况并不完全一致。 作为滔搏的核心客户，adidas 以及 Nike 近期也陆续发布季报，货币中性基 础上 adidas 2024 年 Q1/Q2 大中华区营收同比分别+8%/+9%，Nike 2024 年 3- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company with a target price of HKD 3.6, compared to the current price of HKD 2.9 [1]. Core Insights - The company's performance is under short-term pressure due to weak consumer spending and challenges in offline customer acquisition. The sales in the apparel, footwear, and textile categories showed only a 0.5% year-on-year growth from January to July, with a significant decline of 5.2% in July compared to June [1]. - Nike has lowered its full-year guidance, while Adidas is gradually recovering its sales. Nike's sales in Greater China are expected to decline in FY25, while Adidas has raised its full-year revenue forecast [1]. - The company is facing operational challenges, with a projected decline in revenue for FY25 and a potential decrease in gross margin due to higher online discounting compared to offline sales [1]. - Despite these challenges, the company is committed to maintaining a high dividend policy and enhancing operational efficiency through strategic partnerships [1]. Financial Summary - The total revenue forecast for FY2025 is adjusted to HKD 27.348 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 5.5%. The net profit forecast for FY2025 is revised down to HKD 1.827 billion, a decrease of 17.4% [2]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for FY2025 is projected at HKD 0.29, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.9 [2]. - The financial indicators show a total revenue of HKD 28.950 billion for FY2024, with a growth rate of 6.9%, and a net profit of HKD 2.213 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 20.5% [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong performance relative to the market [3][12]. Core Insights - The retail environment is under pressure, with a forecasted decline in sales for the first quarter of FY25, reflecting a similar trend to the previous quarter. The company expects continued challenges in the retail sector due to extreme weather and a lack of significant improvement in offline retail [3][4]. - Key clients show mixed performance, with Adidas recovering gradually while Nike faces increased pressure. Adidas reported sales growth in the Greater China region, while Nike's sales growth is slowing down [3][4]. - The company is actively exploring diverse retail models to mitigate the impact of reduced foot traffic, focusing on enhancing store quality and expanding online sales through various platforms [4]. - New brand collaborations and partnerships are progressing, which are expected to contribute to incremental growth. Strategic partnerships with Fanatics and Norda are highlighted as key initiatives [4]. - The company is focusing on high-quality growth through a comprehensive retail strategy, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts for FY25-27, with projected net profits of 1.79 billion, 1.92 billion, and 2.09 billion RMB respectively [4]. Summary by Sections Market Data - As of August 22, 2024, the closing price is HKD 2.98, with a market capitalization of HKD 18.48 billion [2]. Financial Performance - For FY2024, the company expects a revenue of 28.93 billion RMB, with a net profit of 2.21 billion RMB, reflecting a 20% growth compared to the previous year [5][9]. - The gross margin is projected to be 41.8%, with a net profit margin of 7.6% for FY24 [6][9]. Sales and Store Performance - The company reported a decline in sales for the first half of FY24, with a year-on-year decrease in sales area for offline stores [8]. - The average store area has shown growth, indicating a focus on quality over quantity in store expansion [4][8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [2][4]. Core Views - Short-term sales pressure is expected to continue, but the company has significant long-term operational advantages. The report anticipates a healthy and steady growth driven by strong retail operational capabilities [4]. - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to RMB 1.9 billion, RMB 2.21 billion, and RMB 2.45 billion respectively, down from previous estimates of RMB 2.39 billion, RMB 2.62 billion, and RMB 2.89 billion [4]. - The report highlights that online sales are expected to continue growing, with a projected increase in online revenue share to 30% in FY2025Q1, compared to 20-30% in FY2024 [4]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - The company’s retail and wholesale business total revenue is expected to show a year-on-year decline in the mid-single digits for FY2025Q1, with online growth outpacing offline due to fluctuating consumer demand and weak foot traffic [4]. - The report references industry peers, noting that the company’s revenue performance in June and July is expected to mirror Q1 trends, with continued differentiation between online and offline channels [4]. Profitability - The report indicates that the increase in online sales and negative operating leverage may impact overall profit margins. The overall discounting is expected to deepen slightly due to the higher proportion of online sales [4]. - The company’s historical return on equity (ROE) remains high, and it is expected to achieve further growth through enhanced multi-channel retail operations and optimized store structures [4]. Dividend Policy - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio of around 100% since 2021, demonstrating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [4].

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 消费行业 滔搏（6110.HK）：短期收入与利润率承 压，但长期基本面依然稳健 • 短期需求面临挑战，下调 FY25 收入与利润预期：继 1QFY25（2024 年 3-5 月）收入同比下滑中单位数之后，滔搏 6-7 月的收入依然面临较 大挑战。我们预计 6-7 月收入同比下滑高单位数，下滑幅度高于 1QFY25。 尽管 8 月初的零售流水表现出一定的回暖迹象，但可能是受到短期天 气转好以及奥运热度的影响，后续是否可持续依然未知。鉴于现阶段整 体较弱的终端需求，我们下调 FY25 的收入预测至全年同比下跌中单位 数。考虑到收入下降可能带来较大的经营负杠杆，我们预测 FY25 归母 净利润同比下降 17.4%。考虑到较弱的销售趋势以及市场情绪，我们下 调目标价至 3.76 港元（10 倍 CY25 P/E）。维持"买入"评级。 • FY25 恐将面临较大的经营负杠杆：受渠道结构的影响（线上占比增 加），我们保守预计全年零售折扣同比可能有所加深，令毛利率同比小 幅下滑。收入和毛利的下滑无疑将带来较大的经营负杠杆。尽管公司长 期致力于降本增效，但考虑到滔搏本身已经较高的运营效率，我们认为 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5]. Core Views - The company reported a decline in retail sales for FY2025Q1, with a year-on-year decrease in single digits and a 1.4% quarter-on-quarter decrease in gross sales area of direct stores, reflecting a challenging retail environment [5][6]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its online presence to offset weak offline traffic, with e-commerce channels expected to perform better due to content-driven marketing and private domain operations [5]. - The inventory levels are expected to remain healthy, with a stock-to-sales ratio projected to be within a healthy range of 4-5 months, despite increased competition from low-priced products in the market [5]. - The company aims to optimize store efficiency and enhance overall retail operations, with a stable average store area and a strategy to integrate online and offline sales channels [5]. - The company is positioned as a leading distributor of major sports brands in China, with potential growth from domestic brands and outdoor products, projecting net profits of 2.36 billion, 2.54 billion, and 2.73 billion for FY2025-2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10, 9, and 9 [5][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company's Q1 performance for FY2024/25 met expectations, with sales declining by mid-single digits year-over-year [4] - E-commerce channels showed faster growth, with online direct sales accounting for over 30% of total direct sales in Q1 FY2024/25, up from 20%-30% in the previous fiscal year [4] - The company is focusing on improving the quality of its retail operations rather than expanding the number of stores, with total sales area of offline direct stores decreasing by 1.4% quarter-over-quarter and 0.5% year-over-year as of May 31, 2024 [4] - Inventory levels remained healthy, with a stock-to-sales ratio of 4-5 months, consistent with the previous year [4] - The company is advancing strategic partnerships with brands like Fanatics, Norda, and Columbia, aiming to explore new growth opportunities [4] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2.38 billion, 2.62 billion, and 2.84 billion yuan for FY2025-2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10x, 9x, and 8x [4] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for FY2024 is projected to grow by 7% year-over-year, with further growth of 6%, 8%, and 8% expected for FY2025-2027 [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow by 20% in FY2024, followed by 8%, 10%, and 8% growth in FY2025-2027 [5] - Gross margin improved slightly to 41.8% in FY2024, while net profit margin increased by 0.9 percentage points to 7.6% [6] - Sales expenses decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 28.9% in FY2024, and management expenses decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.9% [6] Operational Highlights - In FY2024, the company achieved a 6.9% year-over-year growth in sales, with Q1 FY2025 sales declining by mid-single digits [8] - The company's direct store sales area decreased by 1.4% quarter-over-quarter and 0.5% year-over-year in Q1 FY2025 [8] - The company is implementing a "one store, seven openings" strategy, integrating physical stores with digital platforms like TikTok live streaming and mini-programs [4] Strategic Initiatives - The company is deepening its partnership with Norda, planning to build offline experience stores and serve existing wholesale customers [4] - A strategic collaboration with Columbia is expected to expand the company's presence in the outdoor market [4] - The company is focusing on high-quality growth in omnichannel retail, improving efficiency, and enhancing shareholder returns [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Insights - The company reported a total sales amount for retail and wholesale business in Q1, showing a mid-single-digit decline year-on-year, attributed to foot traffic pressure and a high base from the previous year, with online performance outperforming offline [1] - For the fiscal year ending February 28, 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 28.933 billion, representing a 6.9% increase, with a gross margin of 41.8% and a net profit of 2.213 billion, reflecting a 20.4% increase [2] - The brand collaboration matrix continues to expand, with sales from Nike and Adidas products reaching 24.8 billion, accounting for 86% of total revenue, and the addition of new brands such as HOKA ONE ONE and norda [3] - Inventory turnover improved, with inventory at 6.29 billion and turnover days decreasing by 13 days year-on-year, while operating cash flow was 3.13 billion, equivalent to 140% of net profit attributable to the parent company [4] - Revenue forecasts for FY25, FY26, and FY27 are projected to grow by 5%, 6%, and 6% respectively, with net profit expected to increase by 8%, 8%, and 7% respectively, maintaining a "Buy" rating due to strong brand collaborations and healthy cash flow [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY2024 revenue is projected at 28.933 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 6.87%, and net profit at 2.213 billion, reflecting a growth of 20.49% [6] - The company expects revenue growth to continue in the following years, with FY2025E at 30.292 billion and FY2026E at 32.175 billion [10] Brand Collaboration - The company has strengthened its brand collaboration, with significant sales contributions from Nike and Adidas, and new partnerships enhancing its market position [3] Cash Flow and Dividends - The company reported a significant cash flow and a high dividend payout ratio, indicating strong financial health and shareholder returns [4]

公 司 研 究 商贸零售/专业连锁Ⅱ 滔搏(06110.HK) Q1 线下客流承压,新增合作哥伦比亚加码户外领域 2024 年 06 月 28 日 ——港股公司信息更新报告 投资评级:买入(维持) | 吕明(分析师) | |--------------------------| | lvming@kysec.cn | | 证书编号: S0790520030002 | 开 源 证 券 证 券 研 究 报 告 港股公司信息更新报告 | 日期 | 2024/6/28 | |-------------------------|-------------| | 当前股价 ( 港元 ) | 4.150 | | 一年最高最低 ( 港元 ) | 7.460/4.120 | | 总市值 ( 亿港元 ) | 257.35 | | 流通市值 ( 亿港元 ) | 257.35 | | 总股本 ( 亿股 ) | 62.01 | | 流通港股 ( 亿股 ) | 62.01 | | 近 3 个月换手率 (%) | 6.73 | 股价走势图 滔搏 恒生指数 -48% -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 2023-06 2023-10 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][4]. Core Views - The company experienced a mid-single-digit decline in overall sales for FY2025 Q1, attributed to weak offline traffic and a high base effect from the previous year [1]. - Despite the short-term challenges, the company is expected to enhance operational efficiency and improve sales through a combination of physical stores, community engagement, and live streaming [1]. - E-commerce sales are projected to continue growing, with online sales expected to account for 20%-30% of total direct sales in FY2024, further driving revenue growth [1]. - For FY2025, the company anticipates a revenue growth of 5% and an improvement in profitability, supported by a healthy inventory level and operational efficiency [1][2]. Financial Summary - The company's projected financials for FY2025 include: - Revenue of 30,371 million [3][9]. - Net profit of 2,406 million, reflecting an 8.7% year-over-year growth [3][11]. - EPS (Earnings Per Share) is expected to be 0.39 [3][11]. - The company’s revenue growth rates are forecasted at -15.1% for 2023, 6.9% for 2024, and 5.0% for 2025 [3][11]. - The projected P/E ratio for FY2025 is 10.4 [3][11].