据上海有色网（SMM）分析，近期磷酸铁锂企业与下游电芯厂继续展开涨价谈判，头部企业本次展开的是 第二轮谈涨，但大部分其他的材料厂第一轮谈涨仍未落地。下游电芯厂整体仍处于接受原料涨价导致正极 材料有涨价的趋势，但实际涨价落地仍需进一步等待上下游的谈判结果。若后续正极材料厂涨价落地将更 有利于锂价上涨向下游传导，打开上行空间。同时天齐锂业调整现货交易结算价模式也侧面论证下游旺盛 需求。 下游高频数据仍支持行业高景气度，碳酸锂库存连续19周处于去库 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件： 2025年12月25日，湖南裕能、德方纳米、万润新能相继发布部分产线减产检修公告：其中湖南裕能预计检 修时间1个月，减少正极材料产品1.5-3.5万吨；万润新能预计检修时间1个月 ...

磷酸铁锂行业风云突变。12月25日，湖南裕能（301358.SZ）发布公告称，预计将检修设备一个月。同一天，天齐锂业（002466.SZ）发布公告称，自2026年 1月1日起，所有产品现货交易结算价将不再参考SMM（上海有色网），改为参考Mysteel（上海钢联）和广州期货交易所（广期所）的价格。12月26日，万 润新能（688275.SH）、德方纳米（300769.SZ）、安达科技（920809.BJ）均发布公告，宣布检修设备一个月。 随即市场上传出，天齐锂业质疑上海有色网的报价公允性，因此与其"脱钩"的信息。对此，上海有色网发布澄清公告称，市场流传的关于SMM报价公允性 的相关信息不实。 碳酸锂期现货价格悬殊 锂电池产业链大致涵盖锂矿开采、碳酸锂加工、正极材料生产及电池制造四大核心环节。天齐锂业作为碳酸锂加工商，是产业链上游的关键企业；湖南裕 能、万润新能作为处于中游的正极材料商，是碳酸锂的核心采购方；比亚迪和宁德时代则是下游电芯、电池制造企业。它们之间交易碳酸锂时所参考的价 格，分为现货和期货两个市场。 上海有色网作为第三方价格评估机构，在锂电池产业中扮演着定价标杆的角色，其与上海钢联一样都是按照现货价 ...

Group 1 - Key point 1: The article lists various executives from different companies, indicating a focus on leadership within the industry [2][3] - Key point 2: The companies mentioned span multiple sectors, including transportation, energy, and technology, highlighting a diverse range of industries [2][3] - Key point 3: The presence of executives from both state-owned and private enterprises suggests a mixed economic landscape in China [2][3] Group 2 - Key point 1: The mention of specific individuals such as Wang Jian from CRRC and Li Yan from Fuanna indicates their significance in their respective companies [2] - Key point 2: The inclusion of companies like BYD and Tianqi Lithium reflects the growing importance of electric vehicles and battery materials in the current market [2] - Key point 3: The diversity of sectors represented, from environmental technology to traditional manufacturing, points to a broad spectrum of investment opportunities [2][3]

Price Tracking - The battery-grade lithium carbonate index price is 111,682 CNY/ton, an increase of 6,544 CNY/ton compared to the previous working day [1] - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 111,900 CNY/ton, with a rise of 7,000 CNY/ton from the previous working day [1] - Industrial-grade lithium carbonate averages 109,250 CNY/ton, also up by 7,000 CNY/ton from the previous working day [1] - Upstream lithium salt manufacturers are primarily focused on fulfilling long-term contract orders, with limited spot transactions [1] - Downstream material manufacturers are cautious about the rapid price increase, primarily purchasing based on long-term contracts and customer supply [1] - Some companies are forced to accept high-priced sources to maintain production due to urgent demand, which continues to push the current spot price upward [1] Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes the importance of regulating order and leading innovation in the "new three" industries, including new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaics [2] - According to GGII, there are over 282 publicly announced investment projects in China's lithium battery industry chain by 2025, with a total investment exceeding 820 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of over 74% [2] - Policies related to the recycling and comprehensive utilization of used power batteries are expected to be introduced soon [2] - A document regarding the adjustment of lithium salt spot settlement prices has circulated in the industry, indicating that from January 1, 2026, Tianqi Lithium's spot trading settlement prices will no longer reference existing standards but will instead refer to Mysteel's battery-grade lithium salt prices or the main contract prices of lithium carbonate futures [2] - Tibet Mining stated that its lithium carbonate sales prices are based on the Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network prices, and the company will enhance market analysis to ensure stable operations [2] - Yihada reported that its sales in the lithium battery industry accounted for approximately 22% in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 52% [3] - LG Energy Solution announced that Freudenberg Battery Power Systems has canceled a 3.9 trillion KRW electric vehicle battery supply contract scheduled for 2024 [3]

Group 1 - The lithium battery industry chain stocks experienced a collective rise on the 26th, with Yongxing Materials hitting the daily limit, Tianhua New Energy and Zhongkuang Resources increasing by approximately 8%, and companies like Rongjie Co. and BYD rising over 5% [1] - Lithium carbonate futures prices broke through 130,000 yuan/ton, reaching a new high since November 2023 [1] - Major manufacturers of lithium iron phosphate are reportedly planning a collective price adjustment in January 2026, influenced by rising lithium carbonate raw material prices, improving downstream demand, and product sales prices remaining below cost [1] Group 2 - Institutions predict that lithium carbonate prices will continue to fluctuate at high levels due to unclear supply disturbance expectations, high mining prices, and moderate improvements in downstream demand [1] - In the medium to long term, lithium mines are considered the most valuable and elastic targets in the electric vehicle industry chain and energy storage [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 25, 2025, the 2605 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 0.44% to 123,520 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 3,400 yuan/ton to 104,900 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate rose by 3,400 yuan/ton to 102,250 yuan/ton, and the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) increased by 3,500 yuan/ton to 94,280 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory remained at 17,101 tons [3]. - Starting from January 1, 2026, Tianqi Lithium will adjust the spot trading settlement price of all products to refer to Mysteel's battery-grade lithium salt price or the main contract price of lithium carbonate futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange. Hunan Yueneng will conduct maintenance on some production lines starting from January 1, 2026, with an estimated reduction in production of 15,000 - 35,000 tons. Wanrun New Energy will conduct planned production reduction and maintenance on some production lines, with an estimated reduction in lithium iron phosphate production of 5,000 - 20,000 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly production increased by 116 tons to 22,161 tons. Among them, lithium extraction from spodumene increased by 60 tons to 13,864 tons, lithium extraction from lepidolite increased by 40 tons to 2,866 tons, lithium extraction from salt lakes decreased by 20 tons to 3,075 tons, and lithium extraction from recycled materials increased by 36 tons to 2,356 tons. On the inventory side, the weekly inventory decreased by 652 tons to 109,773 tons. Downstream inventory decreased by 239 tons to 39,892 tons, inventory in other links increased by 1,180 tons to 52,030 tons, and upstream inventory decreased by 239 tons to 17,851 tons [3]. - On December 25, the sentiment in the commodity market recovered. Despite the disturbances in the news, the market still showed a pattern of opening low and closing high, with a divergence between futures and spot prices. The pricing mechanism and price transmission have put pressure on the operations of some enterprises. Short - term price competition has intensified, and attention should be paid to whether the strong demand next year can be verified [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures and Minerals**: The closing prices of the main and continuous contracts are not available. The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased by 6 US dollars/ton to 1,440 US dollars/ton. The prices of lepidolite (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) and lepidolite (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) increased by 55 yuan/ton to 2,140 yuan/ton and 3,265 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) and amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) remained unchanged at 11,725 yuan/ton and 13,225 yuan/ton respectively [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) increased by 3,400 yuan/ton to 104,900 yuan/ton, the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) increased by 3,400 yuan/ton to 102,250 yuan/ton. The prices of various types of lithium hydroxide also increased, while the price of hexafluorophosphate decreased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 167,000 yuan/ton [5]. - **Price Spreads**: The price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 2,650 yuan/ton. The price spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 100 yuan/ton to - 10,620 yuan/ton [5]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: The prices of various ternary precursors and cathode materials increased to varying degrees, and the prices of different types of lithium iron phosphate and manganese acid lithium also rose [5]. - **Cells and Batteries**: The prices of some cells and batteries increased slightly, such as the 523 cylindrical ternary battery, the square lithium iron phosphate cell (small power type), and the cobalt - acid lithium cell [5]. 2. Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Charts show the price trends of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lepidolite (1.5% - 2.0%), lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][7][8]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [9][10][11]. - **Price Spreads**: Charts present the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc. from 2024 to 2025 [16][17][18]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt - acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [23][24][25]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt - acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [29][30][31]. - **Inventory**: Charts show the weekly inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from May to December 2025 [35][36][37]. - **Production Costs**: A chart presents the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2025 [40][41]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market has experienced a significant breakthrough, with the main contract rising over 8% to surpass 130,000 yuan/ton, marking a new high since November 2023 [1][8]. Market Performance - As of December 26, the main lithium carbonate contract has recorded six consecutive trading days of gains, with a year-to-date increase of 67.29%, making it one of the best-performing commodities in the market [2][10]. - The Wind lithium mining index rose by 3.24%, with leading stocks such as Shengxin Lithium Energy, Rongjie Co., and Tianqi Lithium Industries seeing gains of over 3% [3][10]. Supply Chain Dynamics - The recent surge in lithium carbonate prices is primarily driven by expectations of supply contraction in the upstream of the industry chain [3][10]. - Major companies in the lithium iron phosphate sector, Hunan Youneng and Wanrun New Energy, announced production cuts, with Youneng reducing production by 15,000 to 35,000 tons and Wanrun cutting 5,000 to 20,000 tons [4][10]. Regulatory Actions - In response to the rapid price increase, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange implemented measures to prevent excessive speculation, including increasing the minimum order size for certain contracts and setting daily opening limits for non-futures company members [5][11]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the lithium carbonate market is characterized by a "strong reality and strong expectation resonance" but caution against short-term volatility risks [12]. - The overall price trend is expected to remain strong, with potential fluctuations due to production cuts and inventory adjustments, while the long-term outlook remains optimistic due to anticipated global energy storage demand in 2026 [6][12].

Core Insights - Yichun City Natural Resources Bureau announced the cancellation of 27 mining rights, primarily affecting ceramic clay and limestone, signaling stricter regulations and potential long-term upgrades in the lithium resource sector [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The cancellation of mining licenses is expected to have a limited short-term impact on lithium carbonate supply, as the licenses had already expired [1][2]. - The Yichun region is a significant source of lithium resources, as lithium-bearing minerals often accompany the listed mining types, indicating that any changes in mining rights could affect supply expectations [2]. Group 2: Regulatory Environment - Existing mining operations, especially those classified under "ceramic clay," will face stricter compliance reviews, potentially interrupting production due to procedural flaws [2]. - The approval process for new mining projects is likely to be delayed due to environmental regulations and changes in mining rights [2]. Group 3: Cost Implications - The move towards regulated development will increase costs related to environmental protection and technological upgrades, raising the production cost baseline for lithium [2][4]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The elimination of non-compliant projects may accelerate industry consolidation, allowing compliant leading companies to increase their market share [3]. - The scarcity of resources is expected to strengthen price support, leading to an upward adjustment in lithium price baselines [4]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - Companies with complete mining rights and environmental compliance, as well as those with integrated "resource + smelting" operations, are recommended for investment consideration, such as Yongxing Materials, Tianqi Lithium, and Ganfeng Lithium [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong performance of the non-ferrous metal ETF (512400), which rose by 3.25% with a trading volume of 530 million yuan, indicating positive market sentiment in the sector [1] - The non-ferrous metal index, which the ETF tracks, increased by 3.16%, with significant gains from constituent stocks such as Jiangxi Copper (up 9.63%) and Yongxing Materials (up 9.18%) [1] - There has been a net inflow of 252 million yuan into the non-ferrous metal ETF as of December 25, with four out of the last five trading days showing positive net inflows, suggesting growing investor interest [1] Group 2 - The lithium carbonate futures market is experiencing a bullish trend, with the main contract surpassing 130,000 yuan, reflecting a continuous rise over the past five trading days [1] - Regulatory changes in Yichun City, where 27 mining rights are proposed to be canceled, signal stricter oversight and potential industry upgrades, which may elevate the value of lithium resources and benefit compliant leading companies [1] - According to Guojin Securities, the lithium battery supply chain is expected to transition from a surplus phase to a recovery phase by 2026, with a focus on price stabilization and profit distribution favoring upstream materials with high barriers and concentration [2]

12月25日，一份关于锂盐现货结算价调整的文件在行业内流传。 文件显示，自2026年1月1日起，天齐锂业所有产品现货交易结算价将不再参考现有标准，调整为参考Mysteel的电池级锂盐价格，或者参考广期所的碳酸锂 期货主力合约价格。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 对此，21世纪经济报道记者从公司人士处核实了上述定价调整文件的真实性。 此前，该公司现货定价锚定SMM的现货价格，而此次调整则源于其价格与其他行业机构、期货之间的明显价格差。 以12月24日为例，当天近月合约LC2601的结算价为12.1万元/吨，SMM的电池级碳酸锂市场均价则为10.15万元/吨，二者相差接近2万元/吨。 不过，需要指出的是，经过近期的连续上涨后，碳酸锂期货的高位波动风险正在快速增加。 一方面，交易所层面在不断加大调控力度。24日晚间广期所宣布，自12月26日交易时起，对LC2601等合约单日开仓量进一步收紧，25日早盘部分碳酸锂期 货合约跌幅也一度达到5%以上。 另一方面，24日还有媒体报道称，宁德时代枧下窝锂矿预计在春节前后复产。类似消息反反复复已经出现至少三次，市场的承受度也在不断提升，不过一 ...