以下文章来源于市值观察 ，作者市值观察 市值观察 . 聚焦上市公司市值与价值 将投中网设为"星标⭐"，第一时间收获最新推送 那么，储能市场明年真的会超预期爆发吗？ 储能到底有多火爆？ 2025年上半年， 全球储能市场还笼罩在产能过剩的阴影中，产业链 各环节 企业仍在价格战中内 卷。 然而进入下半年，形势骤然反转 ——无论是正极、负极材料，还是电解液、电芯企业，产能利用率 迅速 攀升 ， 纷纷 达到满产状态。 又是一个超级大周期。 作者丨 小李飞刀 来源丨 市值观察 近日，摩根士丹利在一场闭门会议中直言， 2026年资本市场的真正爆点可能不在大盘指数，而在于 当前已呈现"满产"状态的储能赛道。并预测， 全球储能市场在 2026年将实现50%以上的增长，乐 观情形下甚至冲击80%。 原因无它，储能需求爆发了。 据国家能源局及第三方机构数据， 2025年前三季度全球锂电储能装机170GWh，同比 增长 68% 。 其中， 国内新增并网 82GWh，同比增长61%，海外储能94GWh，同比增长74% ， 欧洲、中 东、澳大利亚等地成为主要增长区。 那么， 储能需求为何突然崛起？ 一方面，新能源电力的消纳压力日益凸显。 ...

Core Insights - The current supply tightness in the battery industry is prompting leading automotive companies to secure orders from top battery manufacturers, indicating a competitive landscape for battery procurement [3][4] - The domestic power battery installation volume reached 578.0 GWh from January to October, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 42.4% [4][6] - The upcoming adjustment in the new energy vehicle purchase tax policy is expected to influence battery demand, with companies implementing strategies to mitigate the impact [5][7] Industry Overview - The Chinese new energy vehicle market continues to grow rapidly, with production and sales reaching 1,301.5 million and 1,294.3 million units respectively from January to October, marking a year-on-year increase of 33.1% and 32.7% [6] - In October alone, the installation volume of domestic power batteries was 84.1 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 10.7% and a year-on-year increase of 42.1% [6] - The market is witnessing a structural competition between power batteries and energy storage batteries, with both sectors driving the growth of the battery industry [9][10] Company Strategies - Companies like Chery are implementing policies to ensure customers are not adversely affected by the upcoming tax changes, offering subsidies to cover potential tax increases [5] - Guoxuan High-Tech has reported a strong order volume and high capacity utilization, indicating confidence in continued growth [7] - Many battery manufacturers are diversifying into energy storage solutions, with companies like Funeng Technology developing innovative products to capture market share [9][10] Future Outlook - The global battery production capacity is projected to reach 7.5 TWh by 2030, with a demand of 5 TWh, suggesting a balanced supply-demand scenario [8] - The competition among second and third-tier battery manufacturers is intensifying, with differentiation and strong customer relationships becoming critical for sustainable growth [10]

Core Viewpoint - The energy storage market has seen a significant surge in demand for lithium battery materials, leading to substantial price increases, making the lithium battery materials sector a standout performer in the A-share market [1] Group 1: Market Demand and Supply - Since the third quarter, the demand for lithium battery materials such as lithium hexafluorophosphate, lithium iron phosphate, and lithium carbonate has rapidly increased due to the explosion of the energy storage market [1] - A carbon lithium production company in Sichuan reported that even with full production capacity, they cannot meet customer demand, indicating a strong market demand [1] - The chairman of Ganfeng Lithium predicts that global lithium carbonate demand will reach 1.55 million tons in 2025, with a potential increase to 1.9 million tons by 2026, suggesting a tightening supply-demand balance [1] Group 2: Price Trends - The price of lithium carbonate may see upward pressure if demand growth exceeds 30% next year, potentially reaching 150,000 to 200,000 yuan per ton [1] - The downstream investment and operation segments of energy storage are expected to pass on excess profits to upstream materials, batteries, and integration sectors, indicating a potential for price increases across the lithium battery supply chain [2] Group 3: Industry Opportunities - CITIC Construction continues to favor materials, particularly lithium hexafluorophosphate, lithium iron phosphate, anode materials, separators, and battery segments, highlighting opportunities in these areas [3] - The upcoming peak production season is expected to lead to a supply-demand imbalance, driving prices higher [4] - Changes in pricing models are anticipated, which may further impact the market dynamics [5] Group 4: Related Companies - Key companies in the lithium battery materials sector include Ganfeng Lithium (01772), Tianqi Lithium (09696), and Zhongwei New Materials (02579) [6] - In the energy storage sector, notable companies include BYD (01211), Zhongxin Innovation (03931), and Ruipu Lanjun (00666) [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the remarkable performance of the energy storage company Haibo Sichuang, which has seen its stock price surge over 13 times since its IPO, reflecting the booming energy storage market in China and significant returns for early investors [3][5][12]. Company Performance - Haibo Sichuang's stock closed at 273.65 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 49.282 billion yuan and a dynamic P/E ratio of 51.5 times [3]. - The company achieved a revenue of 45.22 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 22.66%, and a net profit of 3.16 billion yuan, up 12.05% [7]. - The latest quarterly report showed revenues of approximately 79.13 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a 52.23% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of about 6.23 billion yuan, up 98.65% [7][17]. Investment Returns - Early investors in Haibo Sichuang, particularly those who participated in the seed round in 2012, have seen returns exceeding 1000 times their initial investment [9][12]. - Notable investors include Tencent Ventures and IDG Capital, with significant unrealized gains as they remain under a one-year lock-up period post-IPO [10][12]. Market Dynamics - The energy storage market in 2025 experienced a significant boom, driven by both domestic policy changes and increased overseas demand, leading to a surge in orders for Chinese battery storage companies [15][16]. - The Chinese energy storage sector is projected to see installed capacity reach over 180 million kilowatts by 2027, with direct investments estimated at around 250 billion yuan [16]. Industry Outlook - Other companies in the energy storage sector, such as Sunshine Power and Yiwei Lithium Energy, also reported substantial revenue growth in the third quarter, indicating a robust industry trend [17]. - The overall performance of the energy storage industry is expected to enhance the future capital market prospects for these companies, as they prepare for dual listings [17].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic battery industry is experiencing a significant boom driven by surging demand for energy storage batteries, leading to a situation where supply cannot keep up with demand, resulting in a "chip shortage" scenario [1][5]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In the latest quarterly reports, 7 out of 10 selected lithium battery companies reported positive revenue growth, with 7 also achieving positive net profit growth [1]. - Notable companies like CATL and Guoxuan High-Tech have shown substantial profit increases, with CATL's net profit growing by 36.20% to 49.034 billion yuan and Guoxuan High-Tech's net profit soaring by 514.35% [3][4]. - The global energy storage market has become a crucial support for this performance, with China's new energy storage installations exceeding 100 million kilowatts, ranking first in the world [6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The demand for energy storage is expected to remain strong, with projections indicating a global installation growth rate of 40-50% next year [7]. - Companies are actively expanding their production capacities, with Guoxuan High-Tech planning to increase its capacity to 300 GWh by 2027 [8]. - The market is witnessing a trend of large-scale procurement, which is pushing leading companies to achieve bulk deliveries while also raising the bar for capacity reserves and cost control [6]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - Solid-state battery technology is advancing rapidly, with companies like Guoxuan High-Tech and Funeng Technology making significant strides towards mass production [9][10]. - Guoxuan High-Tech has reported successful tests of its solid-state battery, with plans for mass production of its second-generation product by 2026 [9]. - The development of solid-state batteries is seen as a key driver for the stock price increases of battery companies, as they transition from laboratory to production lines [11][12]. Group 4: Stock Market Performance - The stock prices of battery companies have surged, with Guoxuan High-Tech's stock nearly doubling this year and other companies like CATL seeing a 46% increase [2][12]. - Analysts have set optimistic target prices for leading companies, indicating further potential for stock price appreciation [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the upcoming 2025 Solid-State Battery Industry Conference and the significant growth in the performance of EVE Energy Co., Ltd. in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a strong recovery in its main business profitability and a promising future for revenue growth [4][6][7]. Event Details - The 2025 Solid-State Battery Industry Conference and the Golden Ding Award Ceremony will take place on November 8, 2025, at the Guangzhou Nansha International Convention and Exhibition Center [4]. - The event will focus on new technologies and building a new ecosystem, with over 1000 participants expected [4]. Company Performance - EVE Energy reported a total revenue of 45.00 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 32.17%, while net profit was 2.82 billion yuan, down 11.70% [6][7]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 16.83 billion yuan, marking a 35.85% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.21 billion yuan, up 15.13% [5][6]. Business Segments Power Battery Segment - EVE Energy's power battery shipments reached 34.59 GWh in the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 66.98% [9]. - The company has expanded its domestic market presence, notably entering the supply chain for XPeng Motors, breaking the previous exclusivity of BYD [10]. - Internationally, EVE Energy's power battery exports increased by 17.9% in the same period, with a significant growth forecast following the establishment of a new facility in Hungary [11]. Energy Storage Segment - The energy storage business saw a total shipment of 48.41 GWh in the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 35.51% [14]. - The revenue from energy storage exceeded 10.29 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a growth of 32.47% [13]. - EVE Energy secured over 63 GWh in energy storage orders in the first half of the year, indicating strong demand and market penetration [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - The automotive parts sector has outperformed the overall automotive industry with a 11.26% increase in the first half of the year, leading to significant attention on the half-year performance forecasts of listed companies in this sector [1] Group 1: Performance Forecasts - Sixteen automotive parts companies have disclosed their half-year performance forecasts for 2025, with all but Ningbo Huaxiang and Enjie Co. expecting varying degrees of profit [1] - Notable profit forecasts include: - Sanhua Intelligent Control: Net profit of 1.893 billion to 2.272 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25% to 50% [2] - HaLi Co.: Net profit of 30.5 million to 36 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 625.83% to 756.71% [2] - Huayou Cobalt: Expected net profit of 2.6 billion to 2.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55.62% to 67.59% [4][5] Group 2: Market Trends - The growth in the automotive market, with production and sales exceeding 15 million units, has enhanced the profitability of upstream and downstream companies in the automotive supply chain [4] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles has stabilized above 50%, contributing to the growth of related companies [4] - The lithium battery sector has seen a cumulative installation of 299.6 GWh in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 47.3% [4] Group 3: Export Opportunities - Export has become a key focus for automotive parts companies, with companies like Tongda Electric and Huagong Technology reporting significant growth in their export businesses [7] - In the first five months, China's automotive parts export reached 39.5 billion USD, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5% [9] Group 4: Challenges - The automotive parts industry faces challenges such as long account receivable turnover days, which have increased from 72.72 days in 2022 to 84.53 days in 2024 [10] - Many automotive parts companies are being pressured by major manufacturers to reduce product prices annually, which could impact their profitability [12]