证券研究报告：食品饮料 | 公司点评报告 股票投资评级 买入|维持 个股表现 -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 2024-12-27 2025/3/13 2025/5/29 2025/8/8 2025/10/21 优然牧业 食品饮料 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价(港元） | 4.94 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本(亿股) | 38.93 | | | 总市值/流通市值(亿港 | 192 | | | 元） | | | | 52 周高/低(港元） | 5.12 /1.47 | | | 资产负债率(%) | 71.77 | | | 市盈率 PE | 58.2 | | | 第一大股东 | PAGAC | Yogurt | | | Holding II Limited | | 研究所 分析师:蔡雪昱 SAC 登记编号:S1340522070001 Email:caixueyu@cnpsec.com 分析师:张子健 SAC 登记编号:S1340524050001 Email:zhangzijian@cnpsec.com 优 ...

Core Viewpoint - Dairy stocks are rising against the trend, with Modern Dairy (01117) up 3.8% to HKD 1.64 and Yuanrong Dairy (09858) up 3.44% to HKD 5.11 [1] Group 1: Market Impact - The Ministry of Commerce announced temporary subsidies on specific dairy imports from the EU, imposing tariffs between 21.9% and 42.7% starting December 23 [1] - Citigroup estimates that the EU accounts for 20.7% of the import volume for the affected products, and domestic production costs are lower than imports, suggesting a shift towards domestic solid dairy processing to alleviate surplus raw milk supply [1] Group 2: Company Implications - Citigroup believes that domestic solid dairy companies, particularly Yili, will benefit from increased demand for raw milk due to these measures, which are expected to enhance the market for high-end and specialty dairy products [1] - Huachuang Securities noted that the subsidy rate of nearly 30% significantly raises the cost of related EU imported products, and the immediate execution of the policy reflects the government's commitment to stabilizing the market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Dairy stocks are rising against the trend, with Modern Dairy (01117) up 3.8% to HKD 1.64 and Yurun Dairy (09858) up 3.44% to HKD 5.11, following the announcement of temporary anti-subsidy measures on certain dairy imports from the EU [1] Group 1: Market Impact - The Ministry of Commerce announced temporary tariffs ranging from 21.9% to 42.7% on specific dairy products imported from the EU, effective from December 23 [1] - Citigroup estimates that the EU accounts for 20.7% of the import volume for the affected products, and domestic production costs are lower than imports, suggesting a potential shift towards domestic solid dairy processing businesses [1] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The measures are expected to boost domestic raw milk demand, particularly benefiting domestic solid dairy companies like Yurun Dairy, which primarily serves clients such as Yili [1] - Huachuang Securities noted that the nearly 30% subsidy rate significantly increases the cost of related EU imported products, indicating a strong commitment from authorities to stabilize the market [1]

Group 1 - Dairy stocks showed an upward trend in early trading, with Yurun Agriculture (09858) rising by 4.25% to HKD 5.15 [1][3] - Modern Dairy (01117) increased by 3.80%, reaching HKD 1.64 [1][3]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong dairy stocks are rising against the market trend, with Modern Dairy (01117.HK) increasing by 3.8% to HKD 1.64 and Yuanrong Dairy (09858.HK) rising by 3.44% to HKD 5.11 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Dairy stocks are rising against the trend, with Modern Dairy (01117) up 3.8% and Yuanrong Dairy (09858) up 3.44% following the announcement of temporary import tariffs on specific dairy products from the EU [1] Group 1: Market Impact - The Ministry of Commerce announced temporary tariffs ranging from 21.9% to 42.7% on certain EU dairy imports, effective from December 23 [1] - Citigroup estimates that the EU accounts for 20.7% of the import volume for the affected products, which include fresh cheese, curd, and cream [1] - The lower domestic production costs are expected to replace the EU's market share in these products, helping to alleviate the surplus of raw milk in the domestic market [1] Group 2: Company Implications - Citigroup believes that domestic solid dairy product companies, particularly Yili, which is a major client of Yuanrong Dairy, will benefit from the increased demand for raw milk due to these measures [1] - The high-end and specialty dairy products from Yuanrong Dairy are expected to better meet the upgraded consumption demands of downstream consumers [1] Group 3: Policy Execution - Huachuang Securities noted that the nearly 30% subsidy rate significantly increases the cost of related EU imported products [1] - The policy is set to take effect immediately after its announcement, demonstrating the authorities' commitment to stabilizing the market, with expected rapid transmission of effects to the market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Dairy stocks are rising against the trend, with Modern Dairy (01117) up 3.8% to HKD 1.64 and Yurun Dairy (09858) up 3.44% to HKD 5.11, following the announcement of temporary anti-subsidy measures on certain dairy imports from the EU [1] Group 1: Government Policy Impact - The Ministry of Commerce announced temporary anti-subsidy measures effective from December 23, imposing tariffs between 21.9% and 42.7% on specific dairy products imported from the EU, including fresh cheese, curd, and cream [1] - Citigroup estimates that the EU accounts for 20.7% of the import volume for the affected products, and domestic production costs are lower than imports, suggesting a potential shift towards domestic solid dairy processing businesses [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The measures are expected to boost domestic raw milk demand, particularly benefiting domestic solid dairy companies like Yurun Dairy, which is a major client of Yili [1] - Huachuang Securities noted that the subsidy rate of nearly 30% significantly increases the cost of related EU imported products, and the immediate execution of the policy reflects the government's commitment to stabilizing the market [1]

2025年12月11日，农业农村部公布了"2025年智慧农业典型案例名单"，优然牧业的"奶牛智慧养殖模 式"在全国16个典型案例中脱颖而出，成为国内乳业上游全产业链唯一入选案例。 以上智能设备的应用，构建起覆盖奶牛全生命周期的精准管理体系。通过智能采集、分析牧场环境及影 响奶牛健康的关键数据，为牧场生产运营、管理决策提供量化数据支撑，牧场的人牛比优化20%，作业 标准化程度显著改善，牧场运营效率与效益大幅提升。 在优然牧业的牧场里，奶牛除了挤奶以外的所有时间都在悠然自得地休息。优然牧业为奶牛打造了"豪 华套房"——全智能无人牛舍，应用物联网"云"技术和智能环控系统，对牛舍自动卷帘、节能风机、日 光照明等设备根据季节、天气变化进行自动控制启停和远程监控设备运行状态，始终调整到最适宜状 态，让奶牛保持身心愉悦，生活更舒适。牛舍内还安装了智能AI喷淋，在夏季通过动态感知牛群位 置，即来即喷，即走即停，比传统喷淋节水达到45%以上。 优然牧业还引进了国际最先进的全智能无人挤奶机器人，奶牛可以根据自己的意愿随时挤奶，依托智能 电眼技术，设备能自动识别奶牛乳房进行套杯挤奶。挤奶的同时，系统可根据奶牛的体况、产量信息为 其 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the short-selling ratios and amounts of various companies, indicating significant market sentiment towards these stocks [1][2]. - AIA Group (81299) and Anta Sports (82020) have the highest short-selling ratios at 100.00%, while Lenovo Group (80992) follows closely with a ratio of 94.69% [1][2]. - The top three companies by short-selling amount are Xiaomi Group (01810) with 2.179 billion, Alibaba Group (09988) with 1.174 billion, and China Merchants Bank (03968) with 1.027 billion [1][2]. Group 2 - The top short-selling ratio rankings show that AIA Group and Anta Sports are at the forefront, both with a ratio of 100.00%, indicating a strong bearish sentiment [2]. - The short-selling amounts for the top companies reveal that Xiaomi Group leads with 21.79 billion, followed by Alibaba Group at 11.74 billion, and China Merchants Bank at 10.27 billion [2]. - The deviation values, which reflect the difference between current short-selling ratios and the average over the past 30 days, show China National Offshore Oil Corporation (80883) at 44.86%, Alibaba Group at 40.72%, and AIA Group at 37.45% [1][2].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Citigroup indicates that the Ministry of Commerce has implemented temporary anti-subsidy measures on specific dairy products imported from the EU, imposing tariffs ranging from 21.9% to 42.7% [1] Group 1: Industry Impact - The temporary tariffs primarily affect fresh cheese, curd, and cream products [1] - Citigroup estimates that the EU accounts for 20.7% of the import volume for these products, suggesting a significant market share [1] - The lower domestic production costs are expected to lead to a replacement of EU products by domestic solid dairy processing businesses, which may help alleviate the surplus of domestic raw milk supply [1] Group 2: Company Implications - The domestic solid dairy processing companies, particularly Yili, which is a major customer of Youran Dairy, are expected to benefit from this measure [1] - The initiative is anticipated to boost domestic raw milk demand, positively impacting Youran Dairy [1] - Citigroup has given a "buy" rating for Youran Dairy, projecting that its high-end and specialty dairy products will better meet the upgrading consumption needs of the downstream market, with a target price of HKD 5.4 [1]