消息面上，优然牧业发布公告，拟按每股3.92港元配售股份，较1月15日收市价4.3港元折让8.84%，所 得款项净额23.3亿港元，拟用于先进技术赋能及数位转型，以提升营运效能；偿还计息债务并优化资本 结构，为潜在收购或投资机会提供灵活性；及补充营运资金并用作一般公司用途。 公告称，公司将先旧后新配售2.9925亿股，卖方(博源，公司控股股东伊利的全资附属公司)另将认购 2.9925亿股新股份。紧随完成后，控股股东于公司持股由33.93%增加至36.07%。 优然牧业(09858)低开逾5%，截至发稿，涨5.12%，报4.08港元，成交额11.81亿港元。 ...

据在香港交易所的公告，中国优然牧业集团有限公司将通过向伊利股份全资附属公司博源投资控股有限 公司出售股份的方式，筹集约23.5亿港元（3.01亿美元）。 优然牧业同意以每股3.92港元的价格，以先 旧后新方式向博源配售约2.99亿股股份。配售价较优然牧业最近收盘价折让8.84%。配售股份相当于扩 大后已发行股本约7.14%。优然牧业还同意根据认购协议，以每股3.92港元的价格向博源发行约2.99亿 股新股。所得款项将用于先进技术赋能和数字化转型，以提高运营效能；偿还计息债务、优化资本结 构，以及补充营运资金。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, YouRan Agriculture (09858), has announced a share placement and subscription agreement, aiming to raise approximately HKD 11.59 billion through the issuance of new shares at a price of HKD 3.92 per share, which represents an 8.84% discount compared to the last closing price of HKD 4.30 [1][2] Group 1 - The share placement involves the sale of shares by the seller, BoYuan, with the placement agent facilitating the purchase of at least six subscribers at the specified price [1] - The company will issue new shares under a general authorization at the same price of HKD 3.92 per share, matching the number of shares sold by the placement agent [1] - The total number of new shares to be issued under the special authorization subscription agreement is 299 million, which will account for approximately 7.14% of the enlarged issued share capital after the placement [2] Group 2 - The estimated net proceeds from the placement and subscription are expected to be approximately HKD 11.59 billion and HKD 11.72 billion, respectively [2] - The funds raised will be utilized for advanced technology empowerment and digital transformation to enhance operational efficiency, debt repayment, and to provide flexibility for potential acquisitions or investments [2] - The placement price of HKD 3.92 per share reflects an 8.84% discount to the last trading price, indicating a strategic pricing decision to attract investors [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company, YouRan Agriculture (09858), has entered into a placement and subscription agreement to issue new shares at a price of HKD 3.92 per share, which represents an approximate discount of 8.84% compared to the last closing price of HKD 4.30 per share [1][2] Group 1: Share Issuance Details - The company will issue 299 million new shares under the special authorization subscription agreement, which will account for approximately 7.14% of the enlarged issued share capital after the placement and subscription [2] - The estimated net proceeds from the placement and subscription are expected to be approximately HKD 11.72 billion [2] Group 2: Use of Proceeds - The net proceeds from the placement and subscription will be utilized for advanced technology empowerment and digital transformation to enhance operational efficiency, repayment of interest-bearing debts to optimize capital structure, and to supplement working capital for general corporate purposes [2]

Group 1 - The company, Youran Dairy (09858.HK), announced a placement and subscription agreement on January 16, 2026, involving the sale of approximately 299 million shares at a price of HKD 3.92 per share, which represents a discount of about 8.84% compared to the last closing price of HKD 4.30 [1][2] - The estimated net proceeds from the placement and subscription are expected to be approximately HKD 11.59 billion [1] - The total estimated proceeds from both the placement and the special authorization subscription are expected to be around HKD 23.46 billion, with a net amount of approximately HKD 23.30 billion after deducting related costs and expenses [2] Group 2 - The special authorization subscription agreement allows the seller to subscribe for approximately 299 million new shares at the same price of HKD 3.92 per share, which also reflects an 8.84% discount from the last closing price [2] - The shares being issued represent about 7.69% of the company's existing issued share capital as of the announcement date [1][2]

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告之內容概不負責， 對 其 準 確 性 或 完 整 性 亦 不 發 表 任 何 聲 明，並 明 確 表 示，概 不 對 因 本 公 告 全 部 或 任 何 部 分 內 容 而 產 生 或 因 倚 賴 該 等 內 容 而 引 致 之 任 何 損 失 承 擔 任 何 責 任。 本 公 告 僅 供 參 考，並 不 構 成 接 納、購 買 或 認 購 本 公 司 任 何 證 券 的 邀 請 或 要 約。 獨立財務顧問 China Youran Dairy Group Limited 中國優然牧業集團有限公司 （於 開 曼 群 島 註 冊 成 立 的 有 限 公 司） （股 份 代 號：9858） (1)根 據 一 般 授 權 配 售 現 有 股 份 及 先 舊 後 新 認 購 新 股 份； (2)涉 及 根 據 特 別 授 權 認 購 新 股 份 之 關 連 交 易；及 (3)申請清洗豁免 配 售 事 項 之 獨 家 全 面 協 調 人、獨 家 全 球 協 調 人 及 首 席 配 售 代 理， 以及本公司關於特別授權認購事項之財務顧問 董 事 會 欣 然 宣 佈， ...

Group 1 - The top three companies with the highest short positions are Vanke Enterprises (02202), Dongfang Electric (01072), and COSCO Shipping Holdings (01919), with short ratios of 18.81%, 18.09%, and 16.45% respectively [1][2] - The companies with the largest increase in short positions are Lens Technology (06613), Shangmei Co., Ltd. (02145), and Youran Dairy (09858), with increases of 2.38%, 0.97%, and 0.64% respectively [1][2] - The companies with the largest decrease in short positions are Sanhua Intelligent Control (02050), SenseTime-W (00020), and Ganfeng Lithium (01772), with decreases of -1.93%, -1.22%, and -1.06% respectively [1][2] Group 2 - The top ten companies with the highest short ratios include Hengrui Medicine (01276) at 15.21%, ZTE Corporation (00763) at 14.26%, and Ping An Insurance (02318) at 14.10% [2] - The companies with the most significant increase in short ratios also include China Merchants Bank (03968) at 7.77% and Laopu Gold (06181) at 4.27% [2] - The companies with the most significant decrease in short ratios also include Zhongchuang Zhiling (00564) at 4.15% and Weichai Power (02338) at 4.93% [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the raw milk price is expected to bottom out and enter a new upward cycle by 2026, benefiting the profit elasticity of dairy farms [1] - The aging and natural elimination of dairy cows will lead to a continuous reduction in milk supply, as many cows from the previous expansion phase will reach the end of their productive life by 2026 [1] - The expiration of large packages of milk powder will accelerate inventory reduction, promoting the consumption of fresh raw milk [1] - The domestic substitution of dairy products is expected to accelerate, with new processing capacities coming online in 2025-2026, which will help absorb excess raw milk [1] Group 2 - The beef cycle indicates that live cattle prices have entered a new upward cycle, with a significant recovery from a low of 25.68 yuan/kg in February 2025 to 28.35 yuan/kg by November 2025 [2] - The current low level of scale in beef cattle farming has led to significant reductions in breeding herds due to previous price declines, which will contribute to a prolonged upward trend in beef prices once the cycle reverses [2] - The company is expected to benefit from the rising prices of both raw milk and beef, with projected revenue growth rates of 1.2%, 9.6%, and 12.7% from 2025 to 2027 [2] - The company has been given a buy rating with a target price of 6.69 HKD, based on a PB valuation method referencing historical peaks in the raw milk cycle [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [1] Core Insights - The brand IF coconut water continues to perform well, with expected rapid growth in 2025, outpacing the industry average. The company is also enhancing brand building and operational improvements [4] - The coconut water industry is projected to grow at an overall rate of 27.18% in 2025, significantly higher than the growth rates of other beverage categories [4] - The company has signed a partnership with COFCO in September 2025, indicating ongoing channel expansion efforts [5] - A share buyback plan has been announced, aiming to enhance shareholder value as the current stock price does not reflect its intrinsic value [5] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to reach $183.86 million in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 16.63%, and projected to grow to $322.21 million by 2027 [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be $31.84 million in 2025, with a decline of 4.43%, but is expected to rebound with a growth of 61.13% in 2026 [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be $0.12 in 2025, increasing to $0.25 by 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 18, 11, and 8 for the respective years [6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating to the company for the first time, with a target price of 6.69 HKD over the next six months [4][3]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading dairy farm in China, benefiting from the anticipated rebound in raw milk prices and beef prices, which is expected to enhance profit elasticity [3][9]. - The report forecasts revenue growth rates of 1.2%, 9.6%, and 12.7% for the years 2025 to 2027, with net profits projected at 0.1 billion, 15.7 billion, and 27.1 billion CNY respectively [3][9]. Summary by Relevant Sections Raw Milk Cycle - By December 2025, raw milk prices have decreased by 31% from their peak in August 2021, marking nearly four and a half years of decline. A rebound is expected in 2026 due to factors such as the aging of the cow herd and the expiration of large powder stocks, which will drive demand for fresh raw milk [1][2]. - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the recovery in raw milk prices, which will enhance its gross profit margins from raw milk sales [1][3]. Beef Cycle - The price of live cattle has also entered a new upward cycle after a decline of 31% from its peak in January 2023 to a low in February 2025. The report anticipates that live cattle prices will continue to rise in 2026, benefiting the company's income from the sale of culled cattle [2][3]. - The company is projected to earn approximately 700 million CNY from the sale of culled cattle in 2024, which will be positively impacted by the rising prices of live cattle [2][3]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to generate revenues of 20.33 billion CNY in 2025, 22.28 billion CNY in 2026, and 25.11 billion CNY in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 0.1 billion, 1.57 billion, and 2.71 billion CNY [8][9]. - The gross margin for raw milk sales is projected to improve from 33.7% in 2025 to 38.1% in 2027, reflecting the company's operational efficiency and favorable market conditions [10][9].