智通财经APP获悉，国元国际发布研报称，随着我国乳制品需求逐步企稳，反补贴措施释放国内深加工 等原奶增量需求，叠加上游牧业去化持续推进，原奶供需平衡有望加速，建议关注优然牧业(09858)。 国元国际主要观点如下： 反补贴将提升进口价格，有望促进原奶供需平衡 根据中国奶业协会，2025年1-10月，中国进口各类乳制品218.24万吨，其中奶酪/奶油/稀奶油总量为 15.6/11.81/21.45万吨，欧盟占中国进口的奶酪/奶油/稀奶油总量的15%/12%/29%，仅次于新西兰，预计 反补贴相关乳制品进口量占中国进口总量约5%。2023年以来，国内外乳制品价格走势分化，国内原奶 供大于求，导致价格持续下行，进口相关乳制品价格优势逐步消退，本次实施反补贴措施，将进一步弱 化进口乳制品的价格优势，海外供给量或将减少，促进我国原奶行业回归供需平衡。 该信息由智通财经网提供 反补贴调查初裁落地，主要针对各类乳酪及稀奶油品类 本次反补贴调查始于2024年7月，中国奶业协会和中国乳制品工业协会代表国内乳制品产业，向商务部 提交反补贴调查申请，通报原产于欧盟的进口相关乳制品存在补贴，对中国国内产业造成了实质损害。 商务部于2 ...

Implication from EU Dairy Product Tariff CITI'S TAKE Vi e w p o i n t | 24 Dec 2025 00:16:34 ET │ 15 pages Youran Dairy (9858.HK) China has announced to impose provisional duties of 21.9-42.7% on certain dairy products imported from EU effective 23 Dec 2025. The duties mainly target cheese and whipping cream, of which we estimate EU has a volume share of 20.7%. We expect EU's share in related products to be replaced by domestic solid dairy product processing business given lower cost than import, which help ...

肉牛行业 养殖板块 行业产能理性回归，龙头巩固格局。冬虫夏草人工培育进入业绩释放期，打开第二成长曲。传统单品 (如金针菇)产能过剩缓解，CR5稳定;虫草投资加速且已有项目验证高盈利能力。 生猪：进入"成本竞争新格局"，政策调控弱周期、强分化，2025行业整体微利、龙头强者恒强。能繁母 猪产能处于合理偏高区间，政策"看得见的手"持续引导调减与降重，价格波动幅度趋弱，成本领先与生 物安全能力成为估值与盈利的核心变量。重点关注企业盈利能力与成本控制能力。推荐牧原股份、温氏 股份、立华股份(300761.SZ)。 风险提示：养殖端突发疫情风险，消费需求不及预期风险、市场竞争风险、应收账款管理风险、项目交 付风险等。 智通财经APP获悉，西南证券发布研报称，2025生猪养殖行业整体微利、龙头强者恒强，重点关注企业 盈利能力与成本控制能力。肉牛行业供给深度出清孕育大周期。2024年11月单头亏损达1600元以上，已 连续8个月亏损超千元，导致行业加速淘汰母牛和减少补栏。母牛PSY仅1(远低于能繁母猪的PSY 30)， 预计2026年牛肉供给将显著减少。该行推荐牧原股份(002714.SZ)、温氏股份(300498.SZ) ...

Group 1: Livestock Industry - The pig industry is currently in a phase of deep losses, with supply contraction expected to continue into the first half of 2026, leading to a significant reduction in production capacity. The average pig price for 2025 is projected to be below the cost line, with quarterly estimates of 15.5 CNY/kg, 13.5 CNY/kg, 16.4 CNY/kg, and 17.7 CNY/kg, resulting in an annual average of approximately 13.4 CNY/kg [11][25][26] - The white chicken market is experiencing a cautious outlook, with a projected supply growth of less than 5% for 2026. The decline in the sales of commodity broiler chicks indicates a more conservative price expectation within the industry [30][35] - The yellow chicken sector remains stable, with production capacity not significantly affected. The prices are expected to follow trends in other protein sources, with a focus on seasonal price increases [39] - The beef market is anticipated to see a price increase due to a clear reduction in both domestic and international supply. The wholesale price of beef has been rising, reaching 66.21 CNY/kg in December, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.1% [42][70] Group 2: Agricultural Inputs and Other Sectors - The feed industry is showing signs of recovery, with a 6.6% year-on-year increase in feed production for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating improved demand from the livestock sector [71][76] - The edible mushroom sector is witnessing a rebound, particularly with the reversal of the predicament faced by enoki mushrooms and the potential growth of new products like Cordyceps [3][80] - The pet industry continues to thrive, with a notable trend towards high-end domestic products, as evidenced by the performance of brands like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. [4][63] - The natural sweetener market is expected to grow as consumer awareness of sugar reduction increases, with companies like Bailong Chuangyuan and Baolingbao positioned to benefit from this trend [4][71]

能够在存量市场中抓住结构性机遇的行业通常具备两大条件：1)精准解决需求痛点，如应对老龄化社会 的健康焦虑和收入低预期下的性价比需求；2)行业本身渗透率处于低位，具备从传统行业吸纳份额的空 间。从具体行业发展来看，该行观察到日本彼时性价比平替的快速起势，以及传统行业的专业化、细分 化发展，带动细分品类渗透率提升。 投资策略：重视ROA企稳的调整尾声、复苏起点板块，首先这些板块可能存在估值修复的机会，其次 在这类板块中寻找"价"或"量"仍景气的细分赛道，该行认为价仍是最优选逻辑，量是次选。 智通财经APP获悉，华源证券发布研报称，不同的消费板块在复苏节奏上既有差异又有共性，ROA是消 费企业经营复苏前瞻指标。针对不同的细分板块来看，该行认为，应重视ROA企稳的调整尾声、复苏 起点板块，首先这些板块可能存在估值修复的机会。其次在这类板块中寻找"价"或"量"仍景气的细分赛 道，该行认为价仍是最优选逻辑，量是次选。 价的逻辑上，CPI上行或将成为渗透率较高的传统行业的"宏大叙事"，有望带动板块估值修复，或仍是 承接增量资金尤其是"红利+"资金的主要板块。量的逻辑选择性价比消费中，供应链效率高者获得量 增；渗透率低的行业 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recovery stage of consumer spending, highlighting that different sectors exhibit both commonalities and differences in their recovery rhythms, driven by supply-demand dynamics and industry structure [4][5] - ROA (Return on Assets) is identified as a leading indicator for the operational recovery of consumer companies, with a focus on analyzing various sub-sectors [4][13] Group 2: Sector Performance - The current recovery sequence indicates that soft drinks and snacks are leading, followed by the catering supply chain, condiments, dairy products, beer, and finally, liquor [5][25] - The report draws parallels with Japan's 1990s consumption differentiation, noting that sectors addressing consumer pain points and with low penetration rates are likely to succeed [5][6] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on sectors where ROA is stabilizing, indicating potential valuation recovery opportunities, particularly in traditional sectors like liquor, beer, and dairy [6][8] - It recommends identifying sub-sectors with either price or volume growth, with a preference for price-driven strategies [6][8] Group 4: Detailed Sector Analysis - The frozen food sector is showing signs of marginal improvement, with leading companies enhancing operational efficiency through product innovation and channel reforms [27][28] - The snack sector is experiencing high demand, driven by new channel developments, although competition is intensifying [33][35] - The beer industry is under pressure, with a focus on high-end products, but overall growth is slowing due to external economic factors [39][41] - The dairy sector is nearing the end of its adjustment phase, with expectations of improved performance as raw milk prices rise [41][42] - The liquor sector is currently in a phase of inventory reduction, with performance risks gradually clearing as channels stabilize [43][48]

商务部于2024年8月21日发布公告，决定对欧盟进口相关乳制品(鲜乳酪及凝乳、经加工乳酪、稀奶油 等)进行反补贴立案调查，经过多轮磋商、抽样调查、实地核查等，初步认定原产于欧盟的进口相关乳 制品存在补贴，且使得国内相关乳制品产业受到实质损害。决定自2025年12月23日起对原产于欧盟的相 关乳制品采取临时反补贴税保证金，保证金金额以计税价格*临时反补贴税保证金比率确定。此前欧盟 进口相关品类关税税率多在8-15%之间，当前额外征收的反补贴保证金比例为21.9-42.7%区间，普遍接 近30%。 智通财经APP获悉，国盛证券发布研报称，商务部公布对欧盟进口相关乳制品反补贴调查初裁，12月23 日起对原产于欧盟的进口相关乳制品实施临时反补贴保证金措施。根据中国奶业贸易月报，2025年1-10 月欧盟在中国进口奶酪中占比14.5%、稀奶油中占比29.4%。当前对欧盟征收反补贴税保证金，有望推 动乳制品深加工业务向国内转移，且目前国内奶价已低于海外，有望加速国产替代。对于上游原奶产业 链，深加工有望提升原奶耗奶量，从需求端进一步推动供需格局改善。 国盛证券主要观点如下： 变相提升进口价格，国产替代有望提速 乳制品反补 ...

影响：深加工品类国产替代有望加速，利好原奶价格企稳回升 欧盟竞品让渡出稀奶油/奶酪潜在20/14亿市场空间，国产替代有望加速。过往我国乳品深加工产业受制 于原奶成本较高、技术不成熟等因素高度依赖进口，此次施加反补贴的相关品类2023年国内同类产品产 量占比仅14%-18%。根据海关总署数据，25年前11月稀奶油/相关奶酪进口金额分别为70/69亿元，其中 进口自欧盟的金额分别为20/14亿元，占比分别达24%/19%。此次反补贴政策显著抬升欧盟竞品成本， 国内厂商价格优势有望强化。其中稀奶油生产技术更为成熟，最有望从中获益。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 华创证券发布研报称，近日，商务部发布针对欧盟进口相关乳制品的反补贴政策，此次裁定针对各类奶 酪和高脂稀奶油，属乳制品深加工核心品类，且进口依赖度均较高。政策自发布次日起立即执行，彰显 了相关部门稳定市场方面的决心，影响有望快速传导至市场。此次反补贴政策显著抬升欧盟竞品成本， 国内厂商价格优势有望强化。其中稀奶油生产技术更为成熟，最有望从中获益。深加工项目投产拉动原 奶消耗，结合存栏去化趋势持续，26年下半年原奶周期 ...

本文源自：智通财经网 消息面上，12月22日，商务部发布对原产于欧盟的进口相关乳制品反补贴调查初裁公告，决定实施临时 反补贴措施。财通证券认为，伴随国内原奶产能过剩、奶价周期下行至低位，进口乳制品价格优势即有 所消退，国产深加工产能布局迎来窗口期，众多乳企及相关企业开始集中投建或扩建深加工产能。反补 贴措施落地将进一步巩固国产价格优势，加速催化国产深加工替代进程。国产深加工产能提供增量原奶 需求，利好上游牧场，建议关注：优然牧业、现代牧业。 智通财经获悉，乳业股上扬，截至发稿，现代牧业(01117)涨4.14%，报1.51港元；优然牧业(09858)涨 2.94%，报4.91港元。 ...

消息面上，12月22日，商务部发布对原产于欧盟的进口相关乳制品反补贴调查初裁公告，决定实施临时 反补贴措施。财通证券认为，伴随国内原奶产能过剩、奶价周期下行至低位，进口乳制品价格优势即有 所消退，国产深加工产能布局迎来窗口期，众多乳企及相关企业开始集中投建或扩建深加工产能。反补 贴措施落地将进一步巩固国产价格优势，加速催化国产深加工替代进程。国产深加工产能提供增量原奶 需求，利好上游牧场，建议关注：优然牧业、现代牧业。 智通财经APP获悉，乳业股上扬，截至发稿，现代牧业(01117)涨4.14%，报1.51港元；优然牧业(09858) 涨2.94%，报4.91港元。 ...