证券研究报告 | 2025年6月9日 原奶行业投资框架 2025年国内原奶景气有望反转上行 行业研究 · 深度报告 投资评级：优于大市（维持评级） 证券分析师：鲁家瑞 021-61761016 lujiarui@guosen.com.cn S0980520110002 证券分析师：李瑞楠 021-60893308 liruinan@guosen.com.cn S0980523030001 证券分析师：江海航 010-88005306 jianghaihang@guosen.com.cn S0980524070003 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 核心摘要 ◆总览：行业概述 原奶由奶牛直接产出，是乳制品产业核心原料。目前我国是全球第四大产奶国，但仍存部分缺口，主要依靠进口新西兰的大包粉补充， 国内原奶行情分析框架围绕国内奶牛淘补和海外进口成本展开。 ◆复盘：国内原奶行情已累计下行四年 2009年至今，国内原奶价格大致经历两轮大周期。最新一轮周期开始于2018年，受价格回暖和资本扩张共同推动，国内奶牛存栏和单产 在2018-2023年期间保持同步增长趋势，产能释放后持续施压国内原奶价格。国内原奶价 ...

智通财经APP获悉，截止6月4日收盘，有109只股票创52周新高，其中嘉鼎国际集团(08153)、中国抗体 －Ｂ(03681)、升华兰德(08106)创高率位于前3位，分别为37.84%、32.89%、32.26%。 52周新高排行 | 股票名称 | 收盘价 | 最高价 | | 创高率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 嘉鼎国际集团(08153) | 0.405 | 0.510 | 37.84% | | | 中国抗体－Ｂ(03681) | 2.850 | 2.990 | 32.89% | | | 升华兰德(08106) | 0.142 | 0.164 | 32.26% | | | 亿都（国际控股） | 1.980 | 2.740 | 24.55% | | | (00259) | | | | | | 倍搏集团(08331) | 0.131 | 0.241 | 23.59% | | | 美丽田园医疗健康 | 24.300 | 24.300 | 22.23% | | | (02373) | | | | | | 金马能源(06885) | 1.080 | 1.080 | 21.3 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to several companies including Haidilao, China Feihe, and Yihai International, while Budweiser APAC is rated as "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the spot and futures cost of dairy products increased month-on-month, while most other consumer goods saw a decline in costs [2][38]. - The overall cost indices for six categories of consumer goods monitored by HTI mostly fell, with specific changes in spot and futures indices for soft drinks, condiments, dairy products, frozen foods, beer, and instant noodles [38]. Summary by Category Beer - The spot cost index decreased by 0.81% month-on-month, and the futures index decreased by 2.84% [39]. - Year-to-date, the spot and futures indices have cumulatively changed by -0.94% and -7.98% respectively [39][14]. Condiments - The spot cost index increased by 0.3% month-on-month, while the futures index decreased by 2.7% [40]. - Year-to-date, the spot and futures indices have cumulatively changed by -0.09% and -5.91% respectively [40][18]. Dairy Products - The spot cost index increased by 0.03% month-on-month, and the futures index increased by 0.33% [41]. - Year-to-date, the spot and futures indices have cumulatively changed by -0.02% and 2.38% respectively [41][22]. Instant Noodles - The spot cost index decreased by 1.22% month-on-month, and the futures index decreased by 1.26% [42]. - Year-to-date, the spot and futures indices have cumulatively changed by -3.31% and -4.11% respectively [42][26]. Frozen Foods - The spot cost index decreased by 0.57% month-on-month, and the futures index decreased by 0.74% [43]. - Year-to-date, the spot and futures indices have cumulatively changed by -1.52% and -2.32% respectively [43][30]. Soft Drinks - The spot cost index increased by 0.34% month-on-month, while the futures index decreased by 0.78% [34]. - Year-to-date, the spot and futures indices have cumulatively changed by -3.76% and -5.22% respectively [34][33].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [1][58]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 1.27% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.09 percentage points, ranking 22nd among 31 sectors [4][10]. - The report highlights that the liquor industry is at a bottom valuation level, with expectations for demand recovery driven by policy support [4][5]. - The dairy sector is anticipated to stabilize in 2025 due to adjustments in production capacity and favorable policies [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector's performance was down 1.27%, with pre-processed foods showing a positive increase of 3.41% [4][10]. - Top-performing stocks included Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and others, while stocks like Western Pastoral and Shanxi Fenjiu faced significant declines [4][10]. 2. Key Consumption and Raw Material Prices - Liquor prices showed slight declines, with Moutai's retail price at 2080 RMB for scattered bottles, down 10 RMB from the previous month [22]. - Beer production in April 2025 reached 289.60 million hectoliters, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [28]. - Dairy prices are stabilizing, with fresh milk priced at 12.15 RMB per liter, showing a slight decrease [30]. 3. Industry Dynamics - The report notes a significant increase in beer exports from Putian, Fujian, with a 28.6% rise in volume [54]. - The liquor production for the first four months of 2025 was 130.8 million hectoliters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 7.8% [55]. 4. Core Company Developments - Kweichow Moutai is focusing on five key areas for development, including strengthening its core business and enhancing brand culture [4]. - Qingdao Beer is optimizing its resource allocation in southern markets and expanding its online retail capabilities [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market index [1][58]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 1.27% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.09 percentage points, ranking 22nd among 31 sectors [4][10]. - The report highlights that the liquor industry is expected to stabilize, with major companies focusing on strategic initiatives to enhance brand value and market presence [4][5]. - The beer segment shows signs of improvement as the peak demand season approaches, with a year-on-year production increase of 4.8% in April 2025 [28]. - The snack food sector is characterized by high growth potential, driven by strong product categories and new distribution channels [4]. - The dairy industry is anticipated to see demand growth due to favorable policies, with milk prices expected to stabilize as supply-demand dynamics improve [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector's performance last week was a decline of 1.27%, with pre-processed foods showing a positive trend, increasing by 3.41% [4][10]. - Top-performing stocks included Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, while the worst performers were Western Pastoral and Shanxi Fenjiu [4][10]. 2. Key Consumption and Raw Material Prices - Liquor prices have shown fluctuations, with Moutai's retail price at 2080 RMB for scattered bottles, down 10 RMB from the previous week [22]. - Beer production in April reached 289.60 million hectoliters, reflecting a 4.8% year-on-year increase [28]. - Dairy prices as of May 16, 2025, include fresh milk at 12.15 RMB per liter, with a slight decrease compared to the previous week [30]. 3. Industry Dynamics - The report notes a 28.6% increase in beer exports from Putian, Fujian, indicating a growing international demand [54]. - The liquor production for the first four months of 2025 was 130.8 million hectoliters, down 7.8% year-on-year, with a significant drop in April [55]. 4. Core Company Developments - Major liquor companies are focusing on strategic initiatives to enhance brand strength and market stability, with Moutai emphasizing internationalization and youth engagement [4][5]. - Qingdao Beer is optimizing resource allocation in southern markets, aiming for growth above the company average [4].

行 业 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月22日 [table_invest] 超配 行 业 深 度 食 品 饮 -40% -29% -18% -7% 4% 15% 24-05 24-08 24-11 25-02 申万行业指数:食品饮料(0734) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] [Table_NewTitle 产能加快]调整，2025年奶价有望企稳 ——乳制品行业深度报告 [table_main] 投资要点： 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 料 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 姚星辰 S0630523010001 yxc@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] 26% 1.白酒底部区间，大众品关注高成长 性赛道 — — 食 品 饮 料 行 业 周 报 （2025/5/12-2025/5/18） 2.白酒压力释放，关注高景气品类— —食品饮料行业周报（2025/5/5- 2025/5/11） 3.安井食品（603345）：经营稳健， 方向明确——公司 ...

作者 | 周琳 主编 | 苏淮 从2023年开始，上市的影视、院线公司在投资者问答平台都免不了回答一个问题：公司有没有布局短剧 业务？能不能贡献营收？ 微短剧的火越烧越旺，明明被吐槽是下沉专属的"奶头乐"，但架不住"日充千万"的收益神话频频搅动市 场敏感的神经，影、剧、文三界的"老炮儿"全被拉到了赛场，只要旗下业务有一点沾边，就逃不过投资 者的灵魂拷问。 但在长剧集和电影上的优秀战绩，未必能延续到短剧领域。从目前短剧行业的格局来看，"正规军"中能 称为头部的选手寥寥，市场多是被一些MCN机构、直播平台以及成立不久的新公司占据。 源媒汇研究了目前头部的影视公司、网文平台在短剧领域的布局和发展情况，总的来讲，"正规军"对这 场战役还是较为谨慎的。尤其是上市公司，基本都停留在"有准备"的层面，已有项目落地的并不多。目 前表现较为亮眼的是柠萌影视（09858.HK)）和华策影视（300133.SZ）。 从短剧业务切入的难易程度到公司的市占率目标，再到微短剧的团队搭建情况和能力建设周期，机构对 于短剧这个资本市场热点抱有极大热情。 华策影视在此次问答中表示，公司从2022年开始关注并研究微短剧市场，从2023年6月开始 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides investment ratings for various companies in the consumer staples sector, with "Outperform" ratings for companies like Haidilao, China Feihe, and China Resources Beer, while Budweiser APAC is rated "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a mixed trend in the cost indices of six categories of consumer goods, with spot cost indices for beer, frozen food, dairy products, seasonings, instant noodles, and soft drinks showing changes of +2.69%, +1.67%, +1.09%, -0.12%, -0.18%, and -1.58% respectively, while futures cost indices showed changes of -3.78%, +1.38%, +0.46%, -1.64%, -1.64%, and -2.61% respectively [36]. Summary by Category Beer - The spot cost index for beer increased by 2.69% compared to last month, while the futures index decreased by 3.78%. Year-to-date, the spot index has changed by -0.08% and the futures index by -5.24% [12][37]. Seasonings - The spot cost index for seasonings decreased by 0.12%, and the futures index decreased by 1.64%. The price of soybeans has been rising due to limited domestic supply and decreased imports [16][38]. Dairy Products - The spot cost index for dairy products increased by 1.09%, and the futures index increased by 0.46%. Fresh milk prices have stabilized at 3.08 yuan per kilogram, with oversupply continuing to pressure prices [19][39]. Instant Noodles - The spot cost index for instant noodles decreased by 0.18%, and the futures index decreased by 1.64%. Palm oil prices have fallen due to increased production and inventory accumulation [24][40]. Frozen Food - The spot cost index for frozen food increased by 1.67%, and the futures index increased by 1.38%. Vegetable prices have decreased significantly due to increased supply [28][41]. Soft Drinks - The spot cost index for soft drinks decreased by 1.58%, and the futures index decreased by 2.61%. Prices are under pressure due to weak demand and capacity expansion [32][42].

| [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 9858 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | | 52 周最高价/最低价(港元)： | 2.54/1.06 | | 目标价格(港元)： | | 总市值(亿港元) | 87.98 | | 最新收盘价(港元)： | 2.26 | 自由流通市值(亿港元) | 87.98 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 3,892.73 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 公司 24FY 实现营业收入 201.0 亿元，同比+7.5%，实现股东应占亏损 6.91 亿元，去年同期为亏损 10.50 亿元。据此推算，公司 24H2 实现营业收入 100.5 亿元，同比+4.6%，实现股东应占亏损 3.6 亿元， 去年同期为亏损 0.58 亿元。 分析判断: ► 原料奶业务增长，反刍动物养殖解决方案业务承压 证券研究报告|港股公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 29 日 [Table_Title] 现金 EBITDA 表现亮眼，期待原奶周期反转 [Table_Title2] 优 ...

Financial Performance - For the year ended December 31, 2024, the company's revenue reached RMB 20,096.16 million, representing a 7.5% increase from RMB 18,693.90 million in 2023[13] - Gross profit for the same period was RMB 5,782.99 million, a significant increase of 29.4% compared to RMB 4,469.79 million in 2023[13] - The company reported a loss attributable to owners of RMB 690.89 million, which is a 34.2% improvement from a loss of RMB 1,049.98 million in 2023[13] - Cash EBITDA for the year was RMB 5,324.91 million, reflecting a 38.3% increase from RMB 3,851.42 million in the previous year[13] - The gross profit margin improved to 28.8% in 2024, up from 23.9% in 2023[20] - The company achieved a revenue growth of 7.5% year-on-year, reaching RMB 20,096 million, with gross profit increasing by 29.4% to RMB 5,783 million[30] - The raw milk business generated approximately RMB 15,100 million in revenue, a 17.0% increase compared to the previous year, accounting for 75.1% of the total revenue[56] - The company reported a revenue of RMB 20,096 million for the period, representing a 7.5% increase from RMB 18,694 million in 2023[55] - The net loss for the 2023 period was RMB 1,453 million, while the reporting period showed a loss of RMB 861 million, representing a year-on-year reduction of 40.7%[147] Production and Operations - The production of high-quality fresh milk and specialty fresh milk totaled 3,747,448 tons, with new product categories including sheep milk introduced[6] - The company expanded its herd size, operating 97 farms and managing 621,568 dairy cows and 19,164 goats as of December 31, 2024[6] - The production of controlled embryos increased by 75.7% year-on-year, exceeding 25,000 units, establishing the company as a leader in high-yield dairy cow breeding in China[6] - The annualized milk yield per cow (excluding special breeds) increased to 12.6 tons, up 5.0% from 12.0 tons in 2023[13] - The number of operational farms increased to 97, with a total dairy cow inventory exceeding 620,000, and the proportion of breeding cows rose by 3.5 percentage points to 52.3%[31] - The annual yield per breeding cow increased by 5.0% year-on-year to 12.6 tons, with the yield at the Saikexing farm rising by 8.8%[31] - Raw milk production reached 3,747,448 tons, a 24.1% increase from 3,020,182 tons in the previous year[61] - The company established a new goat farm with a planned capacity of 50,000 heads, which is the largest single goat farm in China[60] Cost Management and Efficiency - The cost of raw milk feed decreased to RMB 2.10 per kilogram, down from RMB 2.45 in 2023[21] - The average price of raw milk decreased by 5.9% year-on-year, yet raw milk business revenue grew by 17.0%[33] - The average price of fresh milk in major producing provinces decreased by 13.5% to RMB 3.32 per kilogram during the reporting period[53] - The company implemented lean management practices, resulting in a 14.3% reduction in feed costs per kilogram of raw milk[65] - The group’s total borrowings amounted to RMB 24,256 million as of December 31, 2024, down from RMB 26,259 million in 2023[162] Research and Development - R&D investment increased by 76% year-on-year, resulting in 91 core patents and participation in the formulation of 6 national and local standards[40] - The company developed the "Breeding No. 1 Chip," enhancing genetic evaluation accuracy and efficiency for dairy cows, leveraging a breeding big data platform with 9 million DHI production data sets and 30,000 phenotype identification data sets[103] - The company holds 91 core patent technologies and has launched 12 new patents during the reporting period, enhancing its technological barriers[108] - The company is advancing multiple key projects in agricultural biotechnology and dairy breeding, including the efficient production and transplantation of sex-controlled embryos[108] Sustainability and Environmental Initiatives - The company has built 11 photovoltaic pastures and upgraded energy equipment in 54 pastures, achieving a carbon credit of 49,600 tons[43] - The company aims to achieve peak carbon emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2050, actively implementing carbon reduction measures and developing carbon asset projects[117] - The group received a carbon neutrality certificate, becoming the first "zero-carbon factory" in China's feed industry, setting a benchmark for green transformation[81] - The company has implemented 11 photovoltaic farm projects, with 5 achieving green electricity self-use, significantly enhancing energy efficiency[68] Market and Customer Relations - The group reported revenue from its top five customers of RMB 15,979 million, representing 79.5% of total revenue, an increase from 73.1% in 2023[195] - Sales to the largest customer, Yili Group, generated revenue of RMB 14,323 million, accounting for 94.8% of the group's total raw milk revenue, down from 96.5% in 2023[195] - The company has maintained a long-term strategic partnership with Yili Group, ensuring stable revenue streams[195] Employee and Corporate Governance - The group’s employee count as of December 31, 2024, was 12,930, with skilled personnel making up 53.1% of the total[178] - The group has established a three-tier talent development system focusing on management delivery, competency training, and expert cultivation[181] - The company has established an Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) committee to assess and enhance its ESG performance[193] - The group has complied with all relevant laws and regulations without any significant violations during the reporting period[194]