随着产业链深度整合、规模化牧场及奶牛单产水平均持续提升，上游产能波动放缓，奶价周期拉长。本 轮周期从2021年9月至今奶价已下行4年，累计下跌31%。供给端看，2025年9月我国奶牛存栏量相比1月 下降3.2%，牛奶产量随之增速回落，展望未来，随着饲料成本压力加大、奶价持续低位运行，牧场亏 损不断加深，存栏去化有望进一步深化，原奶产量随之实现下降。进口方面，国内大包粉仍有价格优 势，2026年进口量预计不会有显著增加。需求端看，乳制品产量已呈现边际改善，行业深加工产能即将 释放，出口大包粉及活牛的探索已逐渐落地，有望促进供需缺口进一步收窄。该行预计2026年奶价有望 实现企稳回升，届时上游牧场公司将直接受益。 全产业链龙头优势显著，肉奶价格共振有望贡献可观业绩弹性 开源证券发布研报称，首次覆盖，给予优然牧业(09858)"增持"评级。优然牧业是国内牧场龙头，规模 优势显著，公司在周期底部经营韧性十足，收入稳步增长，2025H1现金EBITDA仍保持增长。公司扩产 完成后进入稳健发展期，后续或将受益于原奶及肉牛价格同步上涨，有望充分释放业绩弹性。该行预计 公司2025-2027年归母净利-0.88、13.67、 ...

智通财经APP获悉，开源证券发布研报称，首次覆盖，给予优然牧业(09858)"增持"评级。优然牧业是国 内牧场龙头，规模优势显著，公司在周期底部经营韧性十足，收入稳步增长，2025H1现金EBITDA仍保 持增长。公司扩产完成后进入稳健发展期，后续或将受益于原奶及肉牛价格同步上涨，有望充分释放业 绩弹性。该行预计公司2025-2027年归母净利-0.88、13.67、27.68亿元，EPS分别为-0.02、0.33、0.66 元，当前股价对应2026-2027年PE为13.1、6.5倍。 开源证券主要观点如下： 公司业绩弹性主要来自于原奶价格和肉牛价格的上涨，假设其他因素不变，经测算中性假设若行业奶价 上涨3.5%，公司毛利润实现增量4.6亿元，同时成母牛估值有望提升;若肉牛价格上涨10%，淘牛亏损将 收窄1.1亿元。 随着产业链深度整合、规模化牧场及奶牛单产水平均持续提升，上游产能波动放缓，奶价周期拉长。本 轮周期从2021年9月至今奶价已下行4年，累计下跌31%。供给端看，2025年9月我国奶牛存栏量相比1月 下降3.2%，牛奶产量随之增速回落，展望未来，随着饲料成本压力加大、奶价持续低位运行，牧场亏 损 ...

2026 年 02 月 27 日 开源晨会 0227 ——晨会纪要 数据来源：聚源 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 沪深300 创业板指 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 通信 | 2.842 | | 电子 | 1.981 | | 国防军工 | 1.515 | | 机械设备 | 1.410 | | 钢铁 | 1.326 | 数据来源：聚源 昨日涨跌幅后五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 房地产 | -2.247 | | 传媒 | -1.453 | | 非银金融 | -1.425 | | 商贸零售 | -1.221 | | 食品饮料 | -1.198 | 数据来源：聚源 晨 会 纪 要 晨会纪要 期-20260226 【金融工程】分钟主动资金流中的选股信息——开源量化评论（122）-20260225 行业公司 沪深300 及创业板指数近1年走势 【通信】英伟达业绩超预期，坚定看好全球 AI 算力链——行业点评报告-20260226 【汽车】伯特利拟收购豫 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes a recovery in the food and beverage industry, focusing on upstream opportunities. It suggests that the consumption power, which has been constrained by debt cycles, is expected to improve significantly by the second half of 2026, leading to a recovery in traditional consumption [8] - The report identifies three main investment lines: 1. Agricultural processing, including sugar processing, juice processing, and livestock 2. Food raw material suppliers, focusing on bio-extraction and sugar substitutes 3. Food packaging, which is expected to benefit from cost increases and improved competitive dynamics [3][8] Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - Focus on upstream sectors with three main lines: 1. Agricultural processing: - Sugar processing: Recommend COFCO Sugar (600737, Buy), related stock Crown Agricultural (600251, Not Rated) - Juice processing: Related stocks Andeli (605198, Not Rated), Andeli Juice (02218, Not Rated) - Livestock: Recommend Youran Dairy (09858, Buy), related stock Modern Farming (01117, Not Rated) 2. Food raw material suppliers: - Bio-extraction: Recommend Angel Yeast (600298, Buy), Bairun (002568, Buy), related stocks Chenguang Biotech (300138, Not Rated), Huabao International (00336, Not Rated), and Fujian Sunner Development (00546, Not Rated) - Sugar substitutes: Related stocks Bolinbao (002286, Not Rated), Sanyuan Bio (301206, Not Rated), and Bailong Chuangyuan (605016, Not Rated) 3. Food packaging: Related stock Aorui Jin (002701, Not Rated) [3]

Core Viewpoint - Yuran Dairy has announced a share placement to raise approximately HKD 2.33 billion, equivalent to around RMB 2.07 billion, primarily supported by its major shareholder, Yili [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Yuran Dairy, headquartered in Hohhot, is the largest raw milk supplier globally, covering the entire industry chain from pasture planting, feed processing to dairy cattle breeding [1] - The company has over 100 modern farms and raises more than 620,000 dairy cows, producing 2.08 million tons of raw milk in six months [1] Group 2: Financial Impact - The capital injection from Yili is expected to significantly improve Yuran Dairy's financial condition, with approximately 55% of the raised funds allocated for repaying interest-bearing debts and optimizing the capital structure [1] - Following the transaction, Yili's stake in Yuran Dairy will increase from 33.93% to 36.07%, indicating strong support from the major shareholder during a cyclical low in the raw milk industry [1] Group 3: Strategic Collaboration - The increase in shareholding by Yili is anticipated to deepen the strategic collaboration between the two companies, enhancing their operational synergy [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The dairy industry is expected to see investment opportunities in 2026, driven by industrial upgrades that may boost raw milk demand and a potential upward turning point in milk prices, which could help leading dairy companies recover market share [4][8] - Supply-side dynamics indicate that raw milk prices are likely to rise, benefiting upstream farming companies. The price of fresh milk has declined for over four years, reaching 3.04 RMB/kg, a 30.6% drop from the 2021 peak of 4.38 RMB/kg. It is anticipated that the price stabilization will occur in the second half of 2025, with a turning point expected in 2026, significantly improving the performance of upstream farming companies [5] - On the demand side, there are structural opportunities in dairy product consumption, with potential for deep processing and domestic substitution to create new growth curves for dairy companies. The per capita consumption of dairy products in China is projected to be 40.6 kg in 2024, still below the 47 kg target set for 2030. The consumption structure is primarily focused on liquid milk, with low proportions of dairy solids [6] Summary by Sections - **Supply-Side Analysis**: The prolonged downturn in milk prices has been influenced by macroeconomic disturbances and the expansion led by large-scale enterprises during the previous price upturn. The ongoing losses in upstream farming companies are expected to lead to a supply-side contraction, with a price turning point anticipated in 2026 [5] - **Demand-Side Analysis**: The increasing health awareness among consumers is expected to drive the growth of low-temperature milk and cheese products, which will enhance raw milk demand. Regulatory changes are also expected to support the upgrade of the dairy industry by clarifying standards for deep-processed products and improving market access [6] - **Investment Recommendations**: Based on the positive outlook for the raw milk cycle and domestic substitution of deep-processed products, leading dairy companies are expected to benefit from the recovery of market share during the price upturn. Recommended companies include Yili Group and China Shengmu, with a focus on modern farming practices [8]

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告之內容概不負責， 對 其 準 確 性 或 完 整 性 亦 不 發 表 任 何 聲 明，並 明 確 表 示，概 不 對 因 本 公 告 全 部 或 任 何 部 分 內 容 而 產 生 或 因 倚 賴 該 等 內 容 而 引 致 之 任 何 損 失 承 擔 任 何 責 任。 本 公 告 僅 供 參 考，並 不 構 成 接 納、購 買 或 認 購 本 公 司 任 何 證 券 的 邀 請 或 要 約。 China Youran Dairy Group Limited 中國優然牧業集團有限公司 （於 開 曼 群 島 註 冊 成 立 的 有 限 公 司） （股 份 代 號：9858） 延遲寄發通函 (1)有 關 根 據 特 別 授 權 認 購 新 股 份 之 關 連 交 易； 及 (2)申請清洗豁免 本公司關於特別授權認購事項之財務顧問 獨立財務顧問 茲提述中國優然牧業集團有限公司（「本公司」）日期為2026年1月16日的公告（「該 公 告」），內 容 有 關（其 中 包 括）特 別 授 權 認 購 事 項 及 清 洗 豁 免。除 文 義 另 有 所 指 外，本 公 ...

每经AI快讯，优然牧业(09858.HK)尾盘涨近5%，截至发稿涨4.84%，报4.98港元，成交额1.08亿港元。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

消息面上，优然牧业近日发布公告，以"先旧后新"方式配售股份，加上特别授权认购，合计募资约23.3 亿港元，折合人民币约20.7亿元。这笔注资，主要来自其大股东伊利。交易完成后，伊利持有的优然牧 业股权将由33.93%增至36.07%。 国泰海通证券发布研报称，公司此次募集资金净额为23.3亿港元，将用于偿还贷款及数字化转型建设 等，公司持续推动降本增效与资产结构优化。此外，周期底部资产收购性价比较高，公司未来或进一步 整合优化牧场布局。 优然牧业(09858)尾盘涨近5%，截至发稿，涨4.84%，报4.98港元，成交额1.08亿港元。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that YouRan Agriculture (09858) experienced a nearly 5% increase in stock price, closing at 4.98 HKD with a trading volume of 108 million HKD [1] - YouRan Agriculture announced a share placement using a "old first, new later" method, raising approximately 2.33 billion HKD, equivalent to about 2.07 billion RMB, primarily funded by its major shareholder Yili [1] - Following the transaction, Yili's stake in YouRan Agriculture will increase from 33.93% to 36.07% [1] Group 2 - According to a report from Guotai Junan Securities, the net proceeds from the fundraising will be used for loan repayment and digital transformation initiatives [1] - The company is focused on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, as well as optimizing its asset structure [1] - The current market conditions present a favorable opportunity for acquiring assets at the bottom of the cycle, suggesting potential for further integration and optimization of pasture layouts in the future [1]