Summary of the Conference Call for Youlan Dairy (优然牧业) Industry Overview - The raw milk price shows signs of bottoming out, with industry capacity continuing to decrease. It is expected that by October 2025, the domestic dairy cow inventory will decrease by approximately 8% compared to the end of 2023. Factors such as industry losses and rising beef prices may lead to a moderate increase in raw milk prices in the future [2][3]. - The beef cattle industry is experiencing a clear logic. The decline in beef prices in 2023 has resulted in significant losses for farmers, and the capacity reduction is expected to accelerate in 2024. Due to the long growth cycle of beef cattle, the enthusiasm for restocking is low, leading to an anticipated upward cycle in beef prices for at least two years, with more significant increases expected in 2026 [2][5]. Company Insights - Youlan Dairy possesses scale advantages and a full industry chain layout, operating approximately 100 modern farms across 17 provinces with 620,000 dairy cows. The company effectively controls costs through centralized procurement and self-developed feed formulas, reducing the cost of raw milk feed from 2.1 yuan to 1.91 yuan per kilogram [2][6]. - The increase in raw milk prices will enhance the fair value of Youlan Dairy's breeding herd and promote the growth of raw milk sales. It is projected that total sales will exceed 4 million tons in 2025, and a 0.1 yuan increase in raw milk price per kilogram could lead to a profit increase of over 400 million yuan [2][7]. Financial Projections - Youlan Dairy's net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 970 million yuan, 2.04 billion yuan, and 4 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 15x, 7x, and 4x. The company is considered undervalued, with significant potential for profit growth during the beef and raw milk cycles [4][11]. Competitive Advantages - Youlan Dairy's strong cost control and technological advancements have increased the proportion of breeding cows to 53.5%, enhancing cash flow. The company has a long-term supply agreement with Yili Group, ensuring stable sales channels, and offers premium milk sources that command prices approximately 25% higher than market averages [6][7]. Market Sentiment and Risks - There are concerns in the market regarding the uncertainty of the raw milk cycle reversal and the impact of the culling of dairy cows on the company. However, it is believed that the raw milk cycle is positively changing after over a year of capacity clearance, with price recovery expected soon [9][10]. Conclusion - Youlan Dairy is positioned favorably at the intersection of the upward cycles in both the beef and raw milk industries. The company's strong fundamentals, cost control capabilities, and growth potential make it a noteworthy investment opportunity [3][11].

Group 1 - The top three companies with net inflow of southbound funds are SMIC (00981) with 458 million, Sanhua Intelligent Control (02050) with 405 million, and Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) with 390 million [1] - The top three companies with net outflow of southbound funds are China Mobile (00941) with -601 million, UBTECH (09880) with -516 million, and Sanofi (01530) with -357 million [1] - In terms of net inflow ratio, Haitian Flavoring (03288) leads with 76.61%, followed by Southern Hong Kong Stock Connect (03432) with 62.50%, and CIMC (02039) with 59.57% [1] Group 2 - The top ten companies by net inflow include Tencent Holdings (00700) with 272 million and Alibaba-W (09988) with 263 million [2] - The top ten companies by net outflow include Meituan-W (03690) with -287 million and Bilibili-W (09626) with -242 million [2] - The top three companies with the highest net outflow ratio are Dekang Agriculture (02419) at -50.69%, Sanofi (01530) at -47.05%, and Jianfa International Group (01908) at -45.45% [3]

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要推荐 ❑ 【浙商农林牧渔 钟凯锋/张心怡】优然牧业（09858）公司深度：有"盲区"的周期，待"重估"的价值—— 20260120 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/3 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 报告日期：2026 年 01 月 22 日 浙商早知道 2026 年 01 月 22 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 ❑ 大势：1 月 21 日上证指数上涨 0.08%，沪深 300 上涨 0.09%，科创 50 上涨 3.53%，中证 1000 上涨 0.79%，创业 板指上涨 0.54%，恒生指数上涨 0.37%。 ❑ 行业：1 月 21 日表现最好的行业分别是有色金属（+2.79%)、电子（+2.62%)、机械设备（+1.5%)、钢铁 （+1.39%)、建筑材料（+1.35%)，表现最差的行业分别是银行（-1.58%)、煤炭（-1.57%)、食品饮料（-1.53%)、 商贸零售（-1.07%)、公用事业（-0.8%)。 ❑ 资金：1 月 21 日 ...

浙商证券（601878）认为，公司规模化优势显著，通过持续的降本增效，不断提高核心竞争力，作为行 业龙头有望受益于周期反转充分释放盈利弹性。该行指出，原奶价格上行一方面将带动公司成母牛公允 价值回升，另一方面公司原奶业务具备高成长弹性。此外，肉牛周期回升下，公司成犊牛及育成牛生物 资产公允价值有望提升，同时带动公司淘汰牛价格上涨、淘牛收入增长。 优然牧业(09858)反弹逾9%，截至发稿，涨9.15%，报4.65港元，成交额6777.97万港元。 消息面上，近日，优然牧业发布公告，拟按每股3.92港元配售股份，较1月15日收市价4.3港元折让 8.84%，所得款项净额23.3亿港元。公告称，公司将先旧后新配售2.9925亿股，卖方(博源，公司控股股 东伊利的全资附属公司)另将认购2.9925亿股新股份。紧随完成后，控股股东于公司持股由33.93%增加 至36.07%。国泰海通证券认为，增发募资降本增效，大股东定增彰显信心。 ...

浙商证券认为，公司规模化优势显著，通过持续的降本增效，不断提高核心竞争力，作为行业龙头有望 受益于周期反转充分释放盈利弹性。该行指出，原奶价格上行一方面将带动公司成母牛公允价值回升， 另一方面公司原奶业务具备高成长弹性。此外，肉牛周期回升下，公司成犊牛及育成牛生物资产公允价 值有望提升，同时带动公司淘汰牛价格上涨、淘牛收入增长。 智通财经APP获悉，优然牧业(09858)反弹逾9%，截至发稿，涨9.15%，报4.65港元，成交额6777.97万港 元。 消息面上，近日，优然牧业发布公告，拟按每股3.92港元配售股份，较1月15日收市价4.3港元折让 8.84%，所得款项净额23.3亿港元。公告称，公司将先旧后新配售2.9925亿股，卖方(博源，公司控股股 东伊利的全资附属公司)另将认购2.9925亿股新股份。紧随完成后，控股股东于公司持股由33.93%增加 至36.07%。国泰海通证券认为，增发募资降本增效，大股东定增彰显信心。 ...

国泰海通证券近日发布研报称，维持优然牧业"增持"评级。该行预计公司2025-27年营收分别为208.55、 230.18、258.42亿元，同比增长3.8%、10.4%、12.3%，归母净利润为2.18、18.37、42.82亿元；EPS分别 为0.06、0.47、1.10元/股。公司为牧业行业龙头，受益于周期反转红利，给予2026年公司1.6倍P/B，对 应目标价6.72港元/股。 香港联交所最新资料显示，1月20日，优然牧业(09858)股东将股票由J.P.Morgan Broking(Hong Kong)Limited转入花旗银行，转仓市值12.86亿港元，占比7.65%。 ...

国泰海通证券近日发布研报称，维持优然牧业"增持"评级。该行预计公司2025-27年营收分别为208.55、 230.18、258.42亿元，同比增长3.8%、10.4%、12.3%，归母净利润为2.18、18.37、42.82亿元；EPS分别 为0.06、0.47、1.10元/股。公司为牧业行业龙头，受益于周期反转红利，给予2026年公司1.6倍P/B，对 应目标价6.72港元/股。 智通财经APP获悉，香港联交所最新资料显示，1月20日，优然牧业(09858)股东将股票由J.P. Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited转入花旗银行，转仓市值12.86亿港元，占比7.65%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, YuRan Dairy [5] Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading player in China's dairy industry, with both a strong market position and undervalued stock, benefiting from the upward cycle of beef cattle and the reversal of raw milk prices, which is expected to lead to high returns from cattle disposal and significant growth in raw milk production [1][2] - The raw milk price is nearing a turning point, with a projected decline in dairy cow inventory by 8% from the end of 2023 to October 2025, which is expected to support a moderate increase in milk prices [1] - The company has established the largest modern dairy farm network in China, operating 100 farms across 17 provinces, with a dairy cow inventory of 620,000 heads and a raw milk production of 2.08 million tons in the first half of 2025, leading the industry [1][18] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - YuRan Dairy is a leader in the upstream dairy market, covering the entire industry chain from breeding to raw milk production, and is committed to high-quality development and sustainable practices [17] - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with a significant stake held by Yili Group, which also serves as a core customer, ensuring a deep business relationship [22] 2. Beef Cattle Market - The beef cattle market is expected to experience a structural shortage due to a decline in breeding cows, which will support long-term price increases [2][47] - The company is projected to benefit from the rising prices of calves and breeding cattle, with expected revenue growth from cattle disposal of 72% in 2025 [2] 3. Raw Milk Market - The raw milk business is expected to see significant growth, with sales projected to exceed 4 million tons by 2025, benefiting from cost reductions and efficiency improvements [1][3] - The company has a strong sales relationship with Yili, with 94.8% of its raw milk sales going to Yili at a price significantly higher than the industry average [1] 4. Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from 200.96 billion yuan in 2024 to 258.98 billion yuan in 2027, with net profit projected to increase from a loss of 691 million yuan in 2024 to a profit of 4.01 billion yuan in 2027 [11][9] - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio is projected to decrease significantly, indicating a potential for valuation improvement [9] 5. Market Dynamics - The report highlights the cyclical nature of the dairy and beef markets, with a turning point expected in the raw milk cycle and a long-term upward trend in beef prices due to structural supply issues [1][68] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on these market dynamics, with a robust operational framework and strategic partnerships [1][4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, YuRan Dairy [5] Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading player in China's dairy industry, with both a strong market position and undervalued stock, benefiting from the upward cycle of beef cattle and the reversal of raw milk prices, which is expected to lead to high returns from cattle disposal and significant growth in raw milk production [1][2] - The raw milk price is nearing a turning point, with current prices at the bottom of the cycle, and a projected decline in dairy cow inventory by 8% by October 2025 compared to the end of 2023, which will support a moderate increase in milk prices [1] - The company has established the largest modern dairy farm network in China, operating 100 farms across 17 provinces, with a dairy cow inventory of 620,000 heads and a raw milk production of 2.08 million tons in the first half of 2025, ranking first in the country [1][18] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - YuRan Dairy is a leader in the upstream dairy market in China, covering the entire industry chain from breeding to raw milk production, and is committed to high-quality development and sustainable practices [17] - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with Yili Group as the largest shareholder, holding 33.93% of the shares, which strengthens the business relationship and sales advantages [22] 2. Beef Cattle Market - The beef cattle market is expected to experience a structural shortage, supporting long-term price increases due to a significant reduction in inventory and a weak replenishment of breeding cows [2][38] - The company is projected to benefit from the rising prices of calves and breeding cattle, with expected revenue growth from cattle disposal of 72% in 2025, 25% in 2026, and 34% in 2027 [2] 3. Raw Milk Market - The raw milk business is expected to have high growth elasticity, with a projected sales volume exceeding 4 million tons by 2025, benefiting from cost reduction and efficiency improvements [1][3] - The company’s raw milk sales to Yili accounted for 94.8% of its total raw milk revenue, with a selling price of 3.87 yuan/kg, which is 25.6% higher than the industry average [1] 4. Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is expected to grow steadily, with projected revenues of 215.89 billion yuan in 2025, 234.86 billion yuan in 2026, and 258.98 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 7.43%, 8.78%, and 10.27% respectively [9] - The net profit is projected to recover significantly, with estimates of 9.71 billion yuan in 2025, 20.37 billion yuan in 2026, and 40.10 billion yuan in 2027, corresponding to growth rates of 240.60%, 109.67%, and 96.88% respectively [9][11]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong capital market has seen a significant increase in refinancing activities at the beginning of 2026, with over HKD 27 billion raised, marking a more than 20-fold increase compared to the same period in 2025, setting a vibrant tone for the year ahead [1][3]. Group 1: Active Refinancing at the Start of 2026 - As of January 18, 2026, Hong Kong-listed companies have raised over HKD 27 billion through various methods such as placements and rights issues, compared to HKD 1.1 billion in the same period of 2025 [1][3]. - The robust refinancing activity is built on the historical high of HKD 325.32 billion in 2025, which surpassed the IPO fundraising scale for the first time [3]. - Major companies like BYD and Xiaomi have completed significant fundraising projects, contributing to a trend of continuous capital replenishment [3]. Group 2: Structural Characteristics of Refinancing - The refinancing activities in early 2026 are characterized by a diverse industry distribution, including sectors like oil and gas, construction, software services, and healthcare [7]. - Notable companies such as SF Express and Jitu Express have raised over HKD 1 billion, indicating a clear differentiation in fundraising scales [7]. - The use of raised funds is closely aligned with core business strategies, including international expansion, technology R&D, and financial structure optimization [7]. Group 3: Advantages of Hong Kong's Refinancing Market - The efficiency of Hong Kong's refinancing system allows companies to quickly seize market opportunities without prior regulatory approval for placements [4]. - The flexible and diverse financing tools available in the Hong Kong market cater to various corporate needs, enhancing the ability to raise funds [5]. - The market's recovery and valuation improvements since Q3 2024 have created a favorable environment for refinancing activities [5]. Group 4: Emerging Trends in Refinancing - The refinancing landscape is evolving, with a notable increase in strategic mutual holdings among companies, exemplified by the collaboration between SF Express and Jitu Express [8]. - The current refinancing structure shows a higher proportion of traditional and consumer industries compared to emerging sectors, highlighting the complementary nature of Hong Kong and A-share markets [8]. - Future trends indicate that refinancing will remain high but with a more stable growth rate, and the focus will shift towards optimizing capital structures and enhancing R&D capabilities [10].