Group 1 - The stock of YouRan Agriculture (09858) increased by over 4%, currently up 4.61% at HKD 3.18, with a trading volume of HKD 82.68 million [1] - CITIC Securities indicates that short-term factors such as seasonal demand recovery and heat stress affecting dairy cows have slowed the reduction in dairy cow inventory over the past two months [1] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the underlying cyclical logic remains intact, suggesting that the current market correction presents a favorable investment opportunity within the larger cyclical speculation context [1] Group 2 - Guosheng Securities believes that milk prices are likely to exit the downward cycle, creating opportunities in the livestock and dairy sectors [1] - The firm anticipates that the current downward cycle of milk prices is nearing its end, with accelerated inventory reduction expected to lead to a turning point [1] - The increasing proportion of large-scale farms is expected to stabilize the fluctuations in milk prices, while narrowing price declines and reducing cow culling losses will improve profit margins for livestock companies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of YouRan Agriculture (09858) has risen over 4%, currently trading at 3.18 HKD, with a transaction volume of 82.68 million HKD, driven by seasonal demand recovery and supply-side challenges affecting milk production [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Short-term factors such as seasonal demand recovery and heat stress on dairy cows have led to a slowdown in the reduction of dairy cow inventory over the past two months [1] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the underlying cyclical logic remains intact, indicating that the current market pullback presents a favorable opportunity for investment [1] - The trend of dairy cow inventory reduction is expected to continue, with the turning point for the raw milk cycle approaching as demand seasonally weakens and operational pressures on related farms persist [1] Group 2: Price Outlook - Guosheng Securities anticipates that milk prices are likely to exit the downward cycle, creating opportunities in the dairy and livestock sectors [1] - The firm predicts that the current downward cycle of milk prices is nearing its end, with accelerated inventory reduction expected to lead to a turning point [1] - The increasing proportion of large-scale farms is expected to stabilize the fluctuations in milk prices, while a narrowing decline in milk prices and reduced culling of cows will contribute to profit recovery on financial statements for livestock companies [1]

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年9月30日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國優然牧業集團有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年10月8日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 09858 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 10,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.00001 USD | | 100,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | USD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 10,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.00001 USD | | 100,000 | 本月底法定/註冊股本總額： USD 100,0 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides various investment ratings for companies in the consumer staples sector, with "Outperform" ratings for several companies including China Feihe, Haidilao, and China Resources Beer, while Budweiser APAC is rated "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The overall cost indices for six categories of consumer goods showed mixed trends, indicating stability in the market. Spot cost indices for soft drinks, beer, instant noodles, dairy products, frozen foods, and seasonings changed by +0.97%, +0.51%, +0.26%, -0.13%, -0.44%, and -0.57% respectively, while futures cost indices changed by -1.08%, +1.06%, -1.06%, -1.67%, -0.78%, and -0.06% respectively [31][32][33][34][35][36][37]. Summary by Category Beer - The spot cost index for beer increased by 0.51% month-on-month, while the futures index rose by 1.06%. Year-to-date, the spot and futures indices have decreased by 3.71% and 4.95% respectively [12][32]. Seasonings - The spot cost index for seasonings decreased by 0.57% month-on-month, while the futures index fell by 0.06%. Year-to-date, the indices have changed by -2.41% and -6.71% respectively [15][33]. Dairy Products - The spot cost index for dairy products decreased by 0.13% month-on-month, while the futures index fell by 1.67%. Year-to-date, the indices have changed by -3.36% and -3.93% respectively [18][34]. Instant Noodles - The spot cost index for instant noodles increased by 0.26% month-on-month, while the futures index decreased by 1.06%. Year-to-date, the indices have changed by -3.23% and -6.06% respectively [22][35]. Frozen Foods - The spot cost index for frozen foods decreased by 0.44% month-on-month, while the futures index fell by 0.78%. Year-to-date, the indices have changed by -2.3% and -3.37% respectively [25][36]. Soft Drinks - The spot cost index for soft drinks rose by 0.97% month-on-month, while the futures index fell by 1.08%. Year-to-date, the indices have changed by -4.19% and -10.86% respectively [28][37].

Core Viewpoint - The livestock sector in Hong Kong has experienced significant gains, with multiple companies showing substantial stock price increases on September 30. Group 1: Company Performance - YouRan Agriculture (09858.HK) saw a stock price increase of 10.26%, reaching HKD 3.33 [1] - China Shengmu (01432.HK) rose by 9.23%, with a stock price of HKD 0.355 [1] - Original Ecology Agriculture (01431.HK) increased by 3.39%, trading at HKD 0.305 [1] - Modern Agriculture (01117.HK) experienced a rise of 2.36%, with a stock price of HKD 1.3 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The livestock stocks are experiencing significant gains, with companies like Yuran Dairy, China Shengmu, and others seeing substantial increases in their share prices due to favorable market conditions and strategic agreements [1] Company Summaries - Yuran Dairy (09858) shares rose by 10.26%, reaching HKD 3.33 [1] - China Shengmu (01432) shares increased by 9.23%, reaching HKD 0.355 [1] - Original Ecology Dairy (01431) shares went up by 3.39%, reaching HKD 0.305 [1] - Modern Dairy (01117) shares rose by 2.36%, reaching HKD 1.3 [1] Industry Insights - Original Ecology Dairy announced an agreement with its controlling shareholder, China Feihe, to supply raw milk from 2026 to 2028, with proposed annual sales caps of RMB 3.1 billion, RMB 3.4 billion, and RMB 3.7 billion, which would account for 96% of total revenue [1] - The price of raw milk is expected to be no less than that offered to independent third-party customers [1] - Tianfeng Securities indicated that the current dairy cow capacity reduction may be nearing its end, with Q3 silage purchases potentially accelerating the clearing process, leading to a rebound in raw milk prices [1] - Beef prices may be at a turning point, but various factors such as funding, confidence, and environmental concerns could affect the willingness to restock, impacting future price increases [1] - Companies with cow resources or those adopting a "milk-meat linkage" model are expected to have stronger profitability [1] - Suggested companies to watch include Yuran Dairy, China Shengmu, Guangming Meat Industry, Modern Dairy, and Aoyuan Group [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the rising stock prices of dairy companies, with significant increases observed in shares of YouRan Dairy, China Shengmu, and others [1] - YouRan Dairy's stock rose by 10.26% to HKD 3.33, while China Shengmu increased by 9.23% to HKD 0.355, indicating strong market interest in the sector [1] - Original Ecology Dairy announced a supply agreement with its controlling shareholder, China Feihe, for raw milk from 2026 to 2028, with proposed annual sales caps of RMB 3.1 billion, RMB 3.4 billion, and RMB 3.7 billion, representing 96% of total revenue [1] Group 2 - Tianfeng Securities noted that the current dairy cow capacity reduction may be nearing its end, with Q3 silage purchases potentially accelerating the clearing of marginal costs, leading to a rebound in raw milk prices [1] - Beef prices may be at an inflection point, but various factors such as funding, confidence, and environmental concerns could affect the willingness to restock, impacting future price increases [1] - Companies with cow resources or those adopting a "milk-meat linkage" model are expected to have stronger profitability, with recommendations to focus on YouRan Dairy, China Shengmu, Guangming Meat, Modern Dairy, and Aoyuan Group [1]

董 事 會 欣 然 宣 佈，於2025年9月26日 舉 行 的 股 東 特 別 大 會 上 提 呈 以 批 准、確 認 及 追 認補充金融服務框架協議（包 括 經 修 訂 年 度 上 限）及其項下擬進行之交易的決議案 （「決議案」）已 獲 獨 立 股 東 以 投 票 表 決 方 式 正 式 通 過。 中國優然牧業集團有限公司 （於 開 曼 群 島 註 冊 成 立 的 有 限 公 司） （股 份 代 號：9858） 於2025年9月26日舉行的 股東特別大會的投票表決結果 茲提述中國優然牧業集團有限公司（「本公司」）日期為2025年9月8日的通函（「通 函」）， 當中載有本公司股東特別大會（「股東特別大會」）通 告（「通 告」）。除 文 義 另 有 指 明 外， 本 公 告 所 用 詞 彙 與 通 函 所 用 者 具 有 相 同 涵 義。 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告之內容概不負責， 對 其 準 確 性 或 完 整 性 亦 不 發 表 任 何 聲 明，並 明 確 表 示，概 不 對 因 本 公 告 全 部 或 任 何 部 分 內 容 而 產 生 或 因 倚 賴 該 等 內 容 而 引 ...

Industry Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Insights - The dairy sector is experiencing a significant supply contraction, with the potential end of capacity reduction in sight. The milk price has been declining for four years, leading to an industry loss for 1.5 years, resulting in an approximate 8% reduction in dairy cow capacity as of August 2025. The upcoming third-quarter silage feed procurement season may accelerate the clearing of livestock due to increased funding needs [4][27] - The beef sector is at a turning point in a super cycle, with domestic beef cattle capacity being fully cleared. The prolonged loss cycle has driven a deep reduction in breeding cows, which is expected to lead to a decline in beef cattle inventory starting in 2024. The supply of beef is anticipated to enter a contraction phase in the second half of 2025 [5][50] Summary by Sections Dairy Sector - Supply contraction is nearing its end, with milk prices expected to rebound due to a tightening supply-demand balance. The reduction in capacity is expected to stabilize by the end of 2025 or the first half of 2026, supported by seasonal demand during the upcoming holidays and long-term improvements in consumption driven by child-rearing subsidies [4][27] - The financial performance of dairy companies varies, with some showing resilience against falling milk prices due to unique business advantages, while others face significant pressure [6] - The dairy industry is characterized by a longer production cycle compared to other livestock, leading to a more prolonged adjustment period in capacity [6][27] Beef Sector - The beef cattle market is experiencing a super cycle, with a significant reduction in domestic beef cattle capacity. The prolonged loss cycle has led to a decrease in breeding cows, which will impact beef supply in the coming years [5][50] - External factors affecting beef supply are diminishing, with a long-term global beef supply gap emerging due to various pressures on major production areas [5] - The demand for beef is expected to grow steadily, driven by rising income levels and health consciousness among consumers, with a notable reliance on imported beef to meet domestic demand [50][51] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are well-positioned to benefit from the anticipated recovery in both the dairy and beef sectors. Specific companies to watch include China Shengmu, Guangming Meat Industry, and Fucheng Co., for beef, and Yuran Dairy, China Shengmu, and Modern Dairy for dairy [6][7]

New Stock Activities - Companies currently in the IPO process include Botai Cheliang, Xipuni, and Zijin Gold International [1] - Chery Automobile is at the pricing stage, while Different Group is set for its listing date [1] Earnings Announcements - JBB Builders and Chuangneng Group are scheduled to announce their earnings [1] Shareholder Meetings - Companies holding shareholder meetings include Xinhua Wencuan, Jiajin Investment International, and Everbright Securities [1] - Other companies with scheduled meetings are Jiajin Investment International, Huangdafukong, Liangqing Holdings, Youran Muye, and Jinshi Holdings Group [1] Trading Suspension and Resumption - Changhong Jiahua is set to resume trading [1] Dividend Distribution - Companies with upcoming dividend-related dates include Tian Ge Interactive (ex-dividend date), KLN (dividend payment date), COSCO Shipping Holdings (ex-dividend date), Anta Sports (dividend payment date), and Yisheng Biotechnology (dividend payment date) [1] - Other companies with dividend-related dates include Tai Hing Group (ex-dividend date), Longji Group (dividend payment date), Zhou Li Fu (ex-dividend date), and Junjie Group Holdings (ex-dividend date) [1]