Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by the Ministry of Commerce regarding the import beef ruling is expected to tighten supply in the beef and dairy sectors, leading to price increases and improved profitability for companies like YouRan Agriculture (09858) [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - YouRan Agriculture's stock price increased by 2.78%, reaching HKD 5.18, with a trading volume of HKD 65.15 million [1][4]. Group 2: Industry Developments - The Ministry of Commerce has decided to implement "country-specific quotas and additional tariffs," with a quota of 2.688 million tons for 2026, and a 55% tariff on excess imports [1][4]. - CITIC Securities forecasts a cumulative decline of over 10% in the cattle inventory for 2024 and the first half of 2025, which will impact beef output in the second half of 2025 and 2026, potentially leading to sustained price increases for beef and live cattle due to tighter supply [1][4]. Group 3: Dairy Sector Insights - The ongoing reduction in dairy cow inventory, combined with increased demand from deep processing of dairy products, is expected to support a rebound in milk prices [1][4]. - The previous EU anti-subsidy ruling is anticipated to further bolster milk price recovery, creating a positive feedback loop for both beef and dairy sectors [1][4]. Group 4: Analyst Recommendations - Zhongyou Securities has released a report indicating that YouRan Agriculture will benefit from the ongoing reduction in dairy cow inventory and significant increases in beef prices, leading to enhanced profitability from cattle sales [1][4]. - The effective adjustment of market supply through the deep processing capacity of dairy companies is expected to accelerate industry capacity clearance, contributing to the recovery of milk prices by 2026 [1][4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the positive market response for YouRan Agriculture (09858), with a stock price increase of 4.56% to HKD 5.27 and a trading volume of HKD 62.75 million [1] - The Ministry of Commerce recently announced the results of the beef import ruling, implementing "country-specific quotas and additional tariffs," with a quota of 2.688 million tons for 2026 and a 55% tariff on excess imports [1] - CITIC Securities predicts a cumulative decline of over 10% in the cattle inventory for the meat industry in 2024 and the first half of 2025, which will impact beef output in the second half of 2025 to 2026, alongside a decrease in import volumes, leading to tighter supply and potential price increases for beef and live cattle [1] Group 2 - In terms of raw milk, the ongoing reduction in dairy cow inventory, coupled with increased demand from deep processing of dairy products and previous EU anti-subsidy rulings, is expected to support a rebound in milk prices, indicating a potential synchronization of the beef and raw milk cycles that could enhance profitability for livestock companies [1] - YouRan Agriculture is the largest raw milk supplier in China, operating 100 farms and raising approximately 620,000 dairy cows, with an expected raw milk production of about 3.74 million tons in 2024, accounting for 12.1% of the national total [1] - The company has a leading position in the upstream industry, being the largest supplier of ruminant feed in China, and its subsidiary, Saike Xing, is the largest dairy cow breeding enterprise in the country [1] - YouRan Agriculture benefits from its major shareholder, Yili Group, which is expected to contribute 95% of the company's raw milk revenue in 2024, with the company accounting for about 40% of Yili's overall raw milk procurement [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by the Ministry of Commerce regarding the import beef quota and additional tariffs is expected to tighten supply in the beef and dairy markets, potentially leading to price increases and improved profitability for companies in the livestock sector [1] Company Summary - YouRan Dairy (09858) has seen a stock price increase of over 4%, currently trading at 5.27 HKD with a transaction volume of 62.75 million HKD [1] - YouRan Dairy is the largest raw milk supplier in China, operating 100 farms and raising approximately 620,000 dairy cows, with an expected raw milk production of about 3.74 million tons in 2024, accounting for 12.1% of the national total [1] - The company is strategically positioned in the upstream industry, being the largest supplier of ruminant feed in China, and its subsidiary, Saike Xing, is the largest dairy cattle breeding company in the country [1] - YouRan Dairy is significantly supported by its major shareholder, Yili Group, which is expected to contribute 95% of the company's raw milk revenue in 2024, with YouRan accounting for about 40% of Yili's overall raw milk procurement [1] Industry Summary - The Ministry of Commerce has decided to implement a "country-specific quota and additional tariffs," with a total quota of 2.688 million tons for 2026, and a 55% tariff on any excess [1] - CITIC Securities predicts that the cattle inventory in the meat industry will decline by over 10% cumulatively in 2024 and the first half of 2025, impacting beef output in the second half of 2025 to 2026 [1] - The combination of decreasing import volumes and tightening supply is expected to drive up prices for beef and live cattle [1] - The ongoing reduction in dairy cow inventory, coupled with increased demand from deep processing of dairy products and previous EU anti-subsidy rulings, is expected to support a rebound in milk prices, indicating a potential positive cycle for both beef and raw milk markets [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the policy strengthening the "meat and milk resonance" logic is favorable for the reversal of the raw milk cycle, with rising beef prices improving cash flow from cattle sales and indicating a potential turning point in the raw milk cycle by 2026 [1] - The Ministry of Commerce announced safeguard measures for imported beef, which will be implemented from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2028, involving country-specific quotas and an additional 55% tariff on imports [2] - The combination of quotas and tariffs is expected to tighten the overall beef import market, impacting supply and supporting beef prices [2] Group 2 - Domestic beef and beef prices have been strengthening since 2025, primarily due to tightened import policies and ongoing reductions in domestic cattle inventory, leading to a sustained supply constraint [3] - The import quotas for beef from 2026 to 2028 are set at 2.688 million tons, 2.742 million tons, and 2.797 million tons respectively, representing a 6% reduction compared to the 2024 import volume of 2.87 million tons [3] - The combination of quotas and tariffs is expected to support beef prices by restricting both supply and price dynamics in the market [3]

公司名稱: 中國優然牧業集團有限公司 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年12月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 呈交日期: 2026年1月5日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 09858 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 10,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.00001 | USD | | 100,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | USD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 10,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.00001 | USD | | 100,000 | 本月底法定 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the new import beef quota system will alleviate domestic supply pressure, leading to an increase in domestic beef prices and enhancing the profits of livestock companies, particularly recommending YouRan Agriculture (09858) [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Commerce announced that starting from January 1, 2026, a safeguard measure will be implemented for imported beef in the form of "country-specific quotas and additional tariffs," with a 55% extra tariff on quantities exceeding the quota, lasting for three years [2] Group 3 - The safeguard measures were decided based on an investigation that found a causal relationship between the increase in imported beef and serious damage to the domestic industry, with a quota of 2.688 million tons for 2026, including specific allocations for Brazil (1.106 million tons), Argentina (0.511 million tons), Uruguay (0.324 million tons), and Australia (0.205 million tons) [3] Group 4 - In 2024, China's beef import volume is projected to be 2.87 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, with Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Australia accounting for 46.6%, 20.6%, 8.4%, and 7.4% of imports respectively; domestic beef production is expected to be 7.79 million tons, indicating that imports will exceed 30% of domestic production [4] - The tightening supply due to the reduction of breeding cows since 2025 has driven beef prices up, with the price recorded at 53.5 yuan/kg on December 26, 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.4%; the quota system is expected to further optimize domestic supply and benefit domestic beef prices [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the new import beef quota system will alleviate domestic supply pressure, and combined with the ongoing reduction of domestic cattle, beef prices in China are expected to continue rising, directly benefiting livestock companies such as YouRan Agriculture [1][2] Group 2 - The Ministry of Commerce announced that starting January 1, 2026, a safeguard measure will be implemented for imported beef in the form of "country-specific quotas and additional tariffs," with a 55% additional tariff on quantities exceeding the quota, lasting for three years [2][3] Group 3 - The safeguard measure is a response to the significant increase in imported beef, which has caused serious harm to the domestic industry, with the quota for 2026 set at 2.688 million tons, including specific allocations for Brazil (1.106 million tons), Argentina (0.511 million tons), Uruguay (0.324 million tons), and Australia (0.205 million tons) [3] Group 4 - In 2024, China's beef import volume is projected to be 2.87 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, with Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Australia accounting for 46.6%, 20.6%, 8.4%, and 7.4% of imports respectively; the domestic beef production is estimated at 7.79 million tons, indicating that imports exceed domestic production by over 30% [4] - The ongoing reduction of breeding cows since 2025 has tightened supply, pushing beef prices upward, with the price recorded at 53.5 yuan/kg on December 26, 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.4%; the quota system is expected to further optimize domestic supply and positively impact beef prices [4]

1）淘汰牛假设：根据荷斯坦，每年期初母牛存栏中将淘汰约28%的低产或老龄牛，为了维持成母牛比 例的稳定，我们预计每年的后备小母牛中有约40%转化为成母牛，其中有10%的少量淘汰。另外，我们 预计每年的新生犊牛中公母的概率相等。我们预计2026-2027 年优然的奶牛存栏量年均提升4%，同时母 牛存栏比例保持在52%。我们以成母牛300kg/头、小公牛50kg/头来测算，据此得出2025-2027 年母牛淘 汰量分别为3.09/3.20/3.32 万吨， 小公牛淘汰量分别为0.81/0.84/0.87 万吨。2）利润弹性测算：根据山东 省奶业协会，我们预计2024 年优然成母牛淘汰价格为15.5 元/kg，小公牛淘汰价格为22 元/kg。假设 2025/2026/2027 年淘牛价格的涨幅相较2024 年分别为10%/25%/35%，据此得出2025-2027 年优然牧业成 母牛的淘汰将分别为公司带来0.87/1.55/2.75 亿元的利润增量，小公牛淘汰分别带来0.40/0.58/1.03 亿元 的利润增量，合计带来1.27/2.13/3.78 亿元的利润增量。 盈利预测与投资建议 根据乳业时报，2025 年 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that YouRan Agriculture (09858) is expected to benefit from the continuous reduction in dairy cow inventory and a significant increase in beef prices, which will likely enhance the profitability from culling cows. Additionally, the dairy industry is effectively adjusting market supply through investments in deep processing capacity, which is anticipated to accelerate the clearing of industry capacity and support a recovery in raw milk prices by 2026 [1][5]. Group 2 - The continuous reduction in dairy cow inventory is deepening and accelerating, with a total decrease of 540,000 heads (8.1%) over the past 20 months since reaching a peak in February 2024. This reduction is expected to stabilize fresh milk prices and alleviate previous supply excess pressures [1][5]. - The dairy processing industry is expanding deep processing capacity to consume raw milk, with products like cheese and milk powder significantly outpacing liquid milk in raw milk consumption, thus playing a crucial role in balancing market supply [2][5]. Group 3 - Beef prices have started to reverse, with the average wholesale price in China increasing from 57 yuan/kg in February to 66 yuan/kg in December, a rise of 15.79%. This price increase is expected to enhance the profitability from culling cows, as the price of culled cows is linked to market beef prices [3][4]. - The company anticipates that the profitability from culling cows will increase further with rising beef prices, which will also facilitate the further reduction of dairy cow inventory and help achieve a balance in raw milk supply and demand [3][4]. Group 4 - The company projects that from 2025 to 2027, the culling of dairy cows will generate incremental profits of 1.27 billion, 2.13 billion, and 3.78 billion yuan, respectively, based on expected price increases for culled cows [4]. - The company expects to achieve revenues of 208.05 billion, 217.22 billion, and 229.82 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.53%, 4.41%, and 5.80%, respectively. Net profits are projected to be 5.12 billion, 16.78 billion, and 28.56 billion yuan, with significant year-on-year growth [5].

奶牛存栏持续出清，26年原奶价格有望复苏 智通财经APP获悉，中邮证券发布研报称，优然牧业(09858)受益于奶牛存栏持续去化及牛肉价格显著上 涨，淘牛利润有望显著增厚。同时，乳企布局深加工产能有效调节市场供给，有望进一步加速行业产能 出清，共同推动2026年原奶价格复苏。维持"买入"评级。 中邮证券主要观点如下： 该行据此进行增量利润弹性测算：1）淘汰牛假设：根据荷斯坦，每年期初母牛存栏中将淘汰约28%的 低产或老龄牛，为了维持成母牛比例的稳定，该行预计每年的后备小母牛中有约40%转化为成母牛，其 中有10%的少量淘汰。另外，该行预计每年的新生犊牛中公母的概率相等。该行预计2026-2027年优然 的奶牛存栏量年均提升4%，同时母牛存栏比例保持在52%。该行以成母牛300kg/头、小公牛50kg/头来 测算，据此得出2025-2027年母牛淘汰量分别为3.09/3.20/3.32万吨，小公牛淘汰量分别为0.81/0.84/0.87万 吨。2）利润弹性测算：根据山东省奶业协会，该行预计2024年优然成母牛淘汰价格为15.5元/kg，小公 牛淘汰价格为22元/kg。假设2025/2026/2027年淘牛价格的涨 ...