2024 年 09 月 02 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 证券分析师： 马川琪 S0350523050001 macq@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 廖小慧 S0350524080002 liaoxh@ghzq.com.cn liuy23@ghzq.com.cn 研究所： 联系人 ： 刘毅 S0350123090035 最近一年走势 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------|-------|-------|-------------| | 相对恒生指数表现 | | | 2024/08/30 | | | | | | | | | | | | 市场数据 | | | 2024/08/30 | | 当前价格（元） | | | 32.90 | | 52 周价格区间（元） | | | 28.20-59.85 | | 总市值（百万） | | | 40,760.65 | | 流通市值（百万） | | | 40,760.65 | | 总股本（万股） | | | 123,892.57 | | 流通股本（万股） | | | 123,892.57 | | 日均成交额 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][5] Core Views - The company demonstrates resilience in domestic store performance, with accelerated overseas expansion expected to release operational leverage [5] - For H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 7.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.0%, and an adjusted net profit of 1.24 billion yuan, up 17.8% [5] - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in profitability due to operational leverage being released as overseas expansion continues [5] Summary by Relevant Sections Domestic Performance - In H1 2024, the company reported revenue of 4.593 billion yuan, a 16% increase, with same-store sales declining by 1.7% due to a 2.5% drop in foot traffic [5] - The company added 189 new stores, bringing the total to 4,115, with a target of 350-450 new stores for 2024 [5] Overseas Expansion - H1 2024 revenue from overseas operations reached 2.73 billion yuan, a 43% increase, with direct sales and agency markets growing by 70% and 19% respectively [5] - The company aims to add 550-650 new stores overseas in 2024, with over 200 stores in the U.S. [5] Profitability Metrics - H1 2024 gross margin was 43.7%, up 4.1 percentage points year-on-year, driven by an increase in high-margin direct sales [5] - The operating profit margin for H1 2024 was 20.3%, with a net profit margin of 16.2% after excluding foreign exchange impacts [5] Financial Projections - The company’s projected net profit for 2024-2026 is 2.73 billion, 3.39 billion, and 4.16 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.2, 2.7, and 3.3 yuan [5][6]

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·专业零售(HS) 名创优品（09896.HK） 2024H1 业绩点评：经调整净利润同比+18%， 期待海外直营店旺季表现 2024 年 09 月 02 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|----------|----------|----------|----------| | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | CY2023A | CY2024E | CY2025E | CY2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 13838 | 16951 | 20540 | 24243 | | 同比 (%) | 39.42 | 22.49 | 21.17 | 18.03 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 2253 | 2539 | 3141 | 3766 | | 同比 (%) | 111.48 | 12.68 | 23.73 | 19.90 | | Non-IFRS 净利润（百万元） | 2,356.73 | 2,808.93 | 3,371.42 | 3,936.4 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for MINISO (09896.HK) [2] Core Views - The company achieved a record high gross margin in Q2 2024, driven by the expansion of its overseas direct sales market [4] - The company plans to repurchase up to HKD 2 billion of its shares within 12 months to enhance shareholder returns [2] - The company aims for a revenue growth of 20%-30% in 2024, with adjusted net profit expected to reach at least HKD 2.8 billion [5] Financial Performance - For Q2 2024, MINISO reported revenue of HKD 4.035 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24.1%, and adjusted net profit of HKD 625 million, up 9.4% [2] - In H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of HKD 7.759 billion, a 25.0% increase year-on-year, and adjusted net profit of HKD 1.242 billion, up 17.8% [2] - The gross margin for H1 2024 was 43.7%, an increase of 4.1 percentage points year-on-year, with Q2 2024 gross margin reaching 43.9% [4] Store Expansion - The company is on track to meet its target of adding 900-1100 new stores in 2024, with a total of 4,115 stores in China by the end of H1 2024 [5] - The overseas market saw a revenue increase of 43% in H1 2024, with direct sales revenue growing by 70% [2][5] Market Performance - The same-store sales in China remained flat year-on-year, while overseas same-store sales grew by 16% [5] - The company’s stock closed at HKD 32.90 on August 30, 2024, with a market capitalization of HKD 414.3 billion [2]

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·专业零售(HS) 名创优品（09896.HK） 2024H1 业绩点评：经调整净利润同比+18%， 期待海外直营店旺季表现 2024 年 09 月 02 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|----------|----------|----------|----------| | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | CY2023A | CY2024E | CY2025E | CY2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 13838 | 16951 | 20540 | 24243 | | 同比 (%) | 39.42 | 22.49 | 21.17 | 18.03 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 2253 | 2539 | 3141 | 3766 | | 同比 (%) | 111.48 | 12.68 | 23.73 | 19.90 | | Non-IFRS 净利润（百万元） | 2,356.73 | 2,808.93 | 3,371.42 | 3,936.4 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for MINISO Group (MNSO US) with a target price of USD 25.40, down from a previous target of USD 31.30 [2][6]. Core Insights - MINISO reported solid performance in Q2 2024, with revenue reaching RMB 4.04 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24%. The gross profit margin (GPM) hit a record high of 43.9%, up 4.1 percentage points year-on-year [10]. - The company plans to implement a share repurchase program with a maximum limit of HKD 2 billion over the next 12 months and declared an interim dividend of RMB 620 million, approximately 50% of the adjusted net profit for the first half of the year [4][10]. - Domestic revenue was RMB 2.53 billion, up 18% year-on-year, while overseas revenue reached RMB 1.51 billion, up 35% year-on-year [10]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are RMB 17.3 billion, RMB 21.2 billion, and RMB 25.4 billion, respectively, with adjusted net profits expected to be RMB 2.82 billion, RMB 3.47 billion, and RMB 4.14 billion [6][10]. - The adjusted net profit for Q2 2024 was RMB 625 million, a 9% increase year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 15.5% [10]. - The company’s operating expenses ratio increased to 20.5%, up 5.8 percentage points year-on-year, while the general and administrative expense ratio was 5.6%, up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [10]. Store Expansion and Market Dynamics - As of June 30, 2024, MINISO had 4,115 domestic stores, with a net increase of 81 stores in the quarter. The overseas store count reached 2,753, with a net increase of 157 stores [4][10]. - The company’s O2O (Online to Offline) business grew nearly 80% year-on-year, supporting same-store sales recovery to 98.3% of the previous year's levels [4][10]. - The report highlights that the direct sales market remains a key growth driver, with a 79% year-on-year increase in gross merchandise value (GMV) for direct sales [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Miniso (09896) with a target price of 32.9 HKD, indicating an expected return of over 20% within the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for H1 2024 reached 7.76 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 25.0%, driven by an 18.8% increase in average store count and a 7% increase in same-store sales [1]. - Adjusted net profit for H1 2024 was 1.24 billion CNY, up 17.8%, with an adjusted net profit margin of 16.0%, slightly down by 1.0 percentage points [1]. - In Q2 2024, revenue was 4.04 billion CNY, a 24.1% increase, while adjusted net profit was 630 million CNY, up 9.4% [1]. - The gross margin for H1 2024 improved to 43.7%, up 4.1 percentage points, attributed to a higher contribution from direct sales in overseas markets [1]. Revenue Breakdown - In H1 2024, revenue from mainland China was 5.03 billion CNY, a 17.2% increase, with same-store sales at 98.3% of the previous year's level [1]. - Revenue from overseas markets reached 2.73 billion CNY, a 42.6% increase, with same-store sales growing by 16.3% [1]. - As of H1 2024, overseas revenue accounted for 35.2% of total revenue, up from 30.9% in the same period of 2023 [1]. Store Expansion - The total number of Miniso stores reached 6,868 by H1 2024, with a net addition of 455 stores in the first half of the year [1]. - The number of TOP TOY stores was 195, with 47 new stores opened in H1 2024 [1]. Profitability Details - The sales and distribution expense ratio for H1 2024 was 19.6%, up 4.8 percentage points, mainly due to investments in direct stores in both domestic and overseas markets [1]. - General and administrative expense ratio was 5.4%, up 0.2 percentage points, primarily due to increased personnel-related expenses [1]. - The board approved a cash dividend of approximately 621 million CNY for H1 2024, with total returns to shareholders reaching about 1.4 billion CNY this year [1]. Investment Recommendation - The company is expected to continue competing globally through cost leadership and product differentiation, aiming to enhance its brand image and increase single-store GMV [1]. - Projected adjusted net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 2.8 billion CNY, 3.4 billion CNY, and 4.0 billion CNY, respectively [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.04 billion yuan in Q2 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.1%. Revenue growth for MINISO China, MINISO Overseas, and TOPTOY was 18.3%, 35.5%, and 24.3% respectively [10]. - The gross margin reached a historical high of 43.9% in Q2 2024, with adjusted net profit of 630 million yuan, up 9.4% year-on-year. Excluding foreign exchange gains and losses, the adjusted net profit increased by 24.6% [10]. - The company is experiencing steady same-store sales domestically, with a same-store sales recovery rate of 98.3% compared to H1 2023, and a year-to-date growth of 16.1% in offline GMV [10]. - The company is accelerating its store expansion, adding 189 new stores in H1 2024, primarily in first- and second-tier cities, while maintaining a stable franchise structure [10]. - The overseas market continues to grow rapidly, with a comparable revenue growth of 70% in the direct market and 19% in the agency market for H1 2024 [10]. - The self-developed product ratio for TOP TOY has increased to 35%, with a gross margin of approximately 60% [10]. - The company expects revenue for 2024-2026 to be 17.31 billion, 21.12 billion, and 25.48 billion yuan respectively, with comparable growth rates of 25.1%, 22.0%, and 20.7% [10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.04 billion yuan, a 24.1% increase year-on-year. The gross margin was 43.9%, and adjusted net profit was 630 million yuan, up 9.4% year-on-year [10]. - For H1 2024, the company added 189 new stores, focusing on first- and second-tier cities, while maintaining a healthy inventory turnover [10]. Market Position - The company is actively exploring diverse store models, including MINISO LAND and 24-hour super stores, to enhance its market presence [10]. - The North American market remains a key growth driver, with 62 new stores added in H1 2024 and a same-store sales growth of 12% [10]. Future Outlook - The company maintains a revenue growth target of 10%-15% for the year, supported by a same-store sales recovery rate above 97% in Q3 [10]. - The global expansion strategy is expected to continue driving revenue growth, with projected revenues of 17.31 billion, 21.12 billion, and 25.48 billion yuan for 2024-2026 [10].

2024 年 9 月 2 日 公司研究 总门店数突破 7000 家，推出 20 亿港元回购计划 ——名创优品（9896.HK）2024 年中报点评 要点 公司 2Q2024 营收同增 24.1%，公司权益股东应占利润同增 9.0% 8 月 30 日,公司公布 2024 年二季报：1H2024 实现营业收入 77.6 亿元，同增 25.0%,实现公司权益股东应占利润 11.7 亿元，对应基本 EPS 为 0.94 元，同 增 17.5%；实现经调整净利润 12.4 亿元，同增 17.8%。 单季度拆分来看，2Q2024 实现营业收入 40.4 亿元，同增 24.1%，实现公司 权益股东应占利润 5.9 亿元，同增 9.0%，对应基本 EPS0.47 元，同增 9.3%； 实现经调整净利润 6.2 亿元，同增 9.4%。 公司 2Q2024 综合毛利率同比上升 4.10pct，期间费用率同比上升 6.63pct 1H2024 公司综合毛利率为 43.69%，同比上升 4.10 个百分点。单季度拆分 来看，2Q2024 公司综合毛利率为 43.95%，同比上升 4.10 个百分点。公司 毛利率同比高增主要由于：1） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Miniso Group (09896.HK) [3][7][11] Core Insights - Miniso's Q2 2024 revenue reached 4.04 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 24.1%, with adjusted net profit growing by 9.4% to 625 million HKD [2][4] - The company plans to repurchase up to 2 billion HKD worth of shares within the next 12 months [2][4] - The Chinese segment generated 2.308 billion HKD in Q2, up 18.2% year-on-year, while the overseas segment saw a revenue increase of 35.5% to 1.51 billion HKD [2][4] Financial Performance - Revenue projections for Miniso are as follows: 17.395 billion HKD in 2024E, 21.170 billion HKD in 2025E, and 25.235 billion HKD in 2026E, reflecting growth rates of 25.7%, 21.7%, and 19.2% respectively [1][9] - Adjusted net profit is expected to reach 2.755 billion HKD in 2024E, 3.330 billion HKD in 2025E, and 3.958 billion HKD in 2026E, with growth rates of 22.3%, 20.9%, and 18.9% respectively [1][9] - The gross margin for Q2 2024 was 43.9%, an increase of 4.1 percentage points year-on-year [5][6] Business Expansion - Miniso added 81 new stores in China, bringing the total to 4,115, while overseas, 157 new stores were opened, totaling 2,753 [2][4] - Same-store sales in China recovered to 98.3% of last year's levels, with expectations to reach 98-102% for the full year [2][4] - The TOP TOY segment reported a revenue of 215 million HKD in Q2, growing 24.2% year-on-year, with a comparable store growth of 14% [2][4]