上 市 公 司 社会服务 2025 年 01 月 07 日 新东方-S (09901) 联系人 黄哲 (8621)23297818× huangzhe@swsresearch.com 投资要点： —— 网点持续扩张，静待教育业务增长提速 报告原因：强调原有的投资评级 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 01 月 07 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 48.70 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 7049.71 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 77.05/41.80 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 828.87 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 1,701.99 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0816 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 黄哲 A0230513030001 huangzhe@swsresearch.com 我们预计新东方 25 财年第二季度（2QFY25，2024.9-2024.11）收入 9.93 亿美元，同比增长 14.2%，Non-GAAP 归母净利润 0.53 亿美元，同比小幅增长 4.7% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for New Oriental Education Technology (9901 HK) with a target price of HKD 75.00, indicating a potential upside of 53.8% from the current price of HKD 48.75 [1][4][9]. Core Insights - The overall performance of New Oriental is expected to be influenced by uncertainties surrounding the Oriental Selection business, but the education and cultural tourism segments remain robust. The contribution of Oriental Selection to overall profits is deemed minor [1][2]. - The revenue contribution from Oriental Selection for the fiscal year 2025 is adjusted down to 12% from the previous 15%, with revenue forecasts for Oriental Selection set at USD 623 million for FY25 and USD 710 million for FY26 [2][3]. - The education and cultural tourism businesses are projected to grow at a rate of 31% for FY25, with an operational profit margin improvement of 1 percentage point to 13%, translating to approximately USD 580 million [2][3]. Financial Projections - Revenue for FY25 is forecasted at USD 5.079 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 31%. The operational profit margin is expected to improve to 13% [2][10]. - The adjusted net profit for FY25 is projected at USD 553 million, with a net profit margin of 10.9% [3][10]. - The report anticipates a revenue of USD 1.007 billion for Q2 FY25, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28% [2][6]. Key Financial Metrics - The gross margin is expected to improve to 54.9% in FY25, with operational profit margins projected to reach 10.9% [3][10]. - The adjusted operating profit for FY25 is estimated at USD 551 million, with a significant increase in net profit expected in subsequent years [3][10]. - The report highlights a projected increase in cash flow from operating activities, expected to reach USD 1.138 billion by FY25 [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The core education business continues to show growth, with a revenue increase of 33.5% year-on-year to $1.278 billion, aligning with the company's previous performance guidance [1]. - The company expects net revenue for FY25Q2 to be between $850 million and $870 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 25% to 28% [1]. - The company has a strong cash reserve totaling $4.9 billion, indicating sufficient liquidity for future operations [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY25Q1, net income reached $2.65 billion, a year-on-year increase of 39.8% [1]. - The number of schools and learning centers increased to 1,089, with a net addition of 64 centers [1]. - The paid user base grew by 78.5% year-on-year to 3.23 million [1]. Revenue and Profitability - The company's gross margin for FY25Q1 was 53.3%, a 6.9 percentage point increase year-on-year [1]. - Non-GAAP operating profit margin was reported at 24.4%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company anticipates a revenue growth of approximately 30% for the full fiscal year [1]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a robust growth trajectory in its core education business, with a projected expansion of teaching points by 20% year-on-year [1]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at $89.0, reflecting a positive outlook despite potential fluctuations in profit margins [1]. - The company is focusing on expanding its national teaching network and enhancing its educational services [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for New Oriental-S (09901.HK) with a target price of 79 HKD, while the current price is 48.5 HKD [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 1.435 billion USD for FY25Q1, representing a year-over-year increase of 31%. The Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was 265 million USD, up 40% year-over-year. The guidance for FY25Q2 revenue (excluding selection) is projected to be between 851 million and 872 million USD, indicating a year-over-year growth of 25%-28% [1]. - The core education business revenue (excluding selection) grew by 33.5% year-over-year, aligning with previous guidance. The company also saw significant growth in its cultural tourism business, with a revenue increase of 221% year-over-year in Q1 [1]. - The company is expanding its capacity with a total of 1,089 schools and learning centers as of FY25Q1, a 37% increase year-over-year. Deferred revenue reached 1.73 billion USD, up 24% year-over-year [1]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - FY25Q1 total revenue was 1.435 billion USD (YOY +31%), closely matching the expected 1.442 billion USD. The core education business revenue grew by 33.5% YOY, with notable increases in various segments: overseas exam preparation (YOY +19%), overseas consulting (YOY +21%), domestic exam preparation for adults and college students (YOY +30%), and new education businesses (YOY +50%) [1]. Profitability - The company achieved a Non-GAAP operating profit of 300 million USD (YOY +23%) with an operating profit margin (OPM) of 20.9%, slightly above the expected 20.6%. The core education business OPM was 24.4%, reflecting a year-over-year improvement of 2.2 percentage points [1]. Capacity Expansion - As of FY25Q1, the company operated 1,089 schools and learning centers, a 37% increase YOY. Non-academic enrollment reached 480,000 (YOY +11%), and active paying users for the intelligent learning system and devices grew by 79% to 320,000 [1]. Financial Forecast - The company expects revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 5.208 billion, 6.232 billion, and 7.600 billion USD, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 20.7%, 19.7%, and 22.0%. Adjusted net profits are projected at 435 million, 610 million, and 811 million USD for the same years, with growth rates of 40.4%, 40.2%, and 33.1% [2][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for New Oriental (EDU N) [2] Core Views - New Oriental's FY25Q1 revenue reached $1 44 billion, a year-over-year increase of 30 5%, with Non-GAAP net income attributable to shareholders at $265 million, up 39 8% year-over-year [1] - The company's core education business operating margin improved to 23 7%, a 370bps increase year-over-year, while the Non-GAAP operating margin stood at 24 4%, up 220bps [2] - New Oriental's education new business revenue grew by 49 8% year-over-year, with non-academic class enrollments reaching 484,000, a 10 5% increase [3] - The company's overseas test preparation and study abroad consulting businesses saw revenue growth of 18 8% and 20 7% respectively, while adult and college domestic test preparation business revenue increased by 30 4% [3] Business Performance - New Oriental's total number of schools and learning centers increased to 1,089, with 64 new learning centers added in the quarter [2] - The company's active paying users for its intelligent learning system reached 323,000, a 78 5% year-over-year increase [2] - New Oriental's cash and cash equivalents balance stood at $1 15 billion, supporting the company's expansion in the education business [2] Financial Projections - The report forecasts adjusted net income attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 at $502 million, $642 million, and $740 million, representing year-over-year growth rates of 31 8%, 27 9%, and 15 3% respectively [3] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are $5 33 billion, $6 49 billion, and $7 40 billion, with year-over-year growth rates of 23 6%, 21 7%, and 14 1% [4] - The company's PE ratios for 2025-2027 are projected at 20x, 16x, and 14x respectively [3] Industry Analysis - The education industry continues to show strong demand, particularly in the non-academic and test preparation segments [3] - New Oriental's multi-line strategy post the "Double Reduction" policy has entered a new growth cycle, with stable market share and continuous growth in new store openings [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's core business revenue meets expectations, and there is optimism regarding long-term profit margin improvement [1][4] - The company has achieved revenue targets for nine consecutive quarters, with strong growth in new educational businesses and rapid growth in cultural tourism [2][16] - Profit margins are under temporary pressure, but there is confidence in gradual improvement as new outlets become more profitable [3][24] Revenue Performance - For FY2025Q1, total revenue increased by 30.5% year-on-year to $1.44 billion, with core business revenue excluding certain segments growing by 33.5% to $1.28 billion, aligning with performance guidance [12][13] - The company expects FY25Q2 revenue to be between $850 million and $870 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 25% to 28% [12][13] - Specific business segments showed notable growth: overseas exam preparation and consulting grew by 18.8% and 20.7% respectively, while new educational business revenue surged by 49.8% [16] Profitability Analysis - FY2025Q1 gross margin decreased by 1 percentage point to 59%, and Non-GAAP operating margin also fell by 1 percentage point to 21%, primarily due to investments in cultural tourism and the impact of new business segments [3][24] - The company anticipates that profit margins will improve as the utilization rate of new outlets increases [3][24] Financial Forecasts - The report adjusts the company's FY2025-2026 Non-GAAP net profit estimates from $500 million and $610 million to $490 million and $600 million respectively, while maintaining the FY2027 estimate at $720 million [4][27] - Current stock price corresponds to FY2025-2027 P/E ratios of 22, 17, and 15 based on Non-GAAP net profit [4][27] Shareholder Returns - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, having initiated a stock buyback program with an increased total value of up to $700 million, with approximately $457.9 million already spent on repurchasing shares [27]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company [2][10]. Core Views - The company shows resilience in new business growth despite concerns over revenue deceleration due to a low base. Profit margins are expected to gradually recover in Q3 and Q4 as the pace of capacity expansion slows [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY25Q1, the company reported revenue of $1.435 billion, a 30.5% increase year-over-year. The education segment generated $1.278 billion, up 33.5%, aligning with market expectations [2]. - Non-GAAP operating profit was $300 million, reflecting a 23% increase, with a profit margin of 20.9%, down 1.3 percentage points. The education segment's operating profit was $303 million, up 58.4%, with a profit margin of 24%, an increase of 2 percentage points [2]. - Non-GAAP net profit reached $265 million, a 40% increase, with a profit margin of 18.4%, up 1.2 percentage points [2]. Business Segments - The growth rates for various business segments in FY25Q1 were as follows: exam preparation +19%, consulting +21%, domestic university training +30%, and new businesses +50%. Concerns arose from a slight downward adjustment in the growth rates of high-end study abroad services and high school 1v1 tutoring [2]. - The company maintains its expectation of a 30% revenue growth rate and a 1 percentage point increase in profit margin for the education segment for the full year [2]. Future Outlook - The company plans to expand its network with a capacity growth target of 20-25% for the year. The pace of new store openings is expected to stabilize, which should lead to a gradual recovery in profit margins in Q3 and Q4 [2]. - The guidance for FY25Q2 indicates education segment revenue between $851 million and $872 million, representing a year-over-year growth of 25-28%, which is below the market's expectation of 30% [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 47.5 HKD, maintaining the rating for the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.44 billion USD for FY25Q1, representing a 31% year-on-year increase. Excluding the revenue from Dongfang Zhenxuan's self-operated products and live e-commerce, the revenue growth was 34% [1]. - The company achieved a net profit of 250 million USD, up 48% year-on-year, with a Non-GAAP net profit of 260 million USD, reflecting a 40% increase [1][2]. - The company continues to focus on enhancing service quality and operational efficiency to improve profitability while balancing growth and sustainability [1]. Financial Performance - The operating profit for the quarter was 290 million USD, a 43% increase year-on-year, with a Non-GAAP operating profit of 300 million USD, up 23% [1]. - The company reported a GAAP operating profit margin of 23.7%, an increase of 370 basis points year-on-year, while the Non-GAAP operating profit margin was 24.4%, up 220 basis points [2]. - The company generated a net operating cash flow of 183.2 million USD for the quarter, with total cash and cash equivalents amounting to approximately 4.9 billion USD at the end of the quarter [2]. Growth Projections - The company maintains its revenue forecasts for FY25-27, expecting revenues of 5.2 billion, 6.4 billion, and 7.5 billion USD respectively, with adjusted net profits of 560 million, 770 million, and 1.06 billion USD for the same periods [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company's Q1 FY2025 financial results show a net revenue of $1.435 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 30.5%, which aligns with market expectations [1] - The traditional education business continues to perform well, with significant growth in various segments, while the new business lines, including live commerce and cultural tourism, are also showing strong revenue growth [1][2] - The company expects a slight pressure on profit margins in Q2 due to seasonal factors, but anticipates continued growth in the education sector [2] Financial Performance Summary - For FY2025 Q1, the company achieved a Non-GAAP operating profit of $300 million, a year-over-year increase of 22.6%, and a Non-GAAP net profit of $265 million, up 39.8% [1] - The gross margin for FY2025 Q1 was 59.35%, with an operating profit margin of 20.4%, reflecting improvements in learning center utilization and cost reduction measures [2] - Deferred revenue reached $1.733 billion, indicating strong cash flow and future revenue assurance [2] Business Segment Performance - The total number of schools and learning centers increased to 1,089, a quarter-over-quarter growth of 6.24% and a year-over-year growth of 37.33% [1] - The traditional education business segments, including high school and study abroad training, saw growth rates of over 20%, while the new education business grew by 49.8% [1] - The cultural tourism business reported revenues of nearly $90 million for FY2025 Q1, a year-over-year increase of 221% [1] Financial Projections - The company projects FY2025 net revenue (excluding a specific segment) to grow by 25% to 28%, reaching between $851 million and $872 million [2] - Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for FY2025 to FY2027 are $515 million, $689 million, and $904 million, representing year-over-year growth rates of 35.2%, 33.6%, and 31.3% respectively [2][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for New Oriental-S (9901.HK) [1] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of $1.435 billion for Q1 FY2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 30.5%, with a net profit of $245 million, up 48.4% year-over-year [1] - Non-GAAP operating profit for Q1 was $300 million, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 22.6% [1] - The non-selective business revenue grew by 33.5% year-over-year, indicating strong performance in new business segments [1] - The company expects Q2 non-selective business revenue to increase by 25-28% year-over-year, aligning with previous expectations [1] - The company has a robust expansion plan, with a target of increasing offline teaching points by 20-25% throughout the year [1] - The report forecasts non-selective business revenues for FY2025-2027 to be $4.416 billion, $5.536 billion, and $6.697 billion respectively, with Non-GAAP operating profits of $539 million, $731 million, and $938 million [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 FY2025 total revenue: $1.435 billion, up 30.5% YoY - Net profit: $245 million, up 48.4% YoY - Non-GAAP operating profit: $300 million, up 22.6% YoY [1] Business Segments - Non-selective business revenue: $1.278 billion, up 33.5% YoY - Growth in new business segments, particularly non-academic courses and intelligent learning systems [1] Future Outlook - Q2 revenue guidance for non-selective business: $851.4 million to $871.8 million, up 25-28% YoY - Continued growth expected in new business segments and stable performance in core education services [1] Expansion Strategy - Offline teaching points increased to 1,089, with a quarterly growth of 6% - National network advantages are strengthening with significant presence in major cities [1] Earnings Forecast - Projected adjusted EPS for FY2025-2027: $0.34, $0.44, and $0.55 respectively - Corresponding P/E ratios: 18x, 14x, and 11x [2][5]