When I last reported on Trip.com (NASDAQ: TCOM ), I was quite optimistic about the company's prospects, even while being concerned about travel and tourism overall. Turns out, TCOM is outpacing even my upbeat projections, with share prices climbing rapidly after theMarkets rise and fall, booms come and go, and the world keeps ticking. Ultimately, I believe observing megatrends, as difficult as they can be to spot, let alone fully comprehend, can yield insights into the advance of human society, which in tur ...

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip Group-S (09961) reported better-than-expected Q2 performance, with hotel business growth surpassing expectations and market share continuing to rise [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Ctrip's hotel business growth exceeded expectations, indicating strong operational performance [1] - The company is in a favorable position within the competitive landscape of the domestic market [1] Group 2: Market Strategy - The trend of improving marketing investment efficiency is expected to continue [1] - The impact of overseas market investments on overall company profits is manageable [1] Group 3: Valuation and Target Price - The valuation for Ctrip has been extended to 2026, with a target price increase from HKD 591 to HKD 653 based on a 20x P/E ratio for 2026 [1] - The recommendation for Ctrip remains "Buy" [1]

智通财经APP获悉，交银国际发布研报称，携程集团-S(09961)第二季业绩超预期，酒店业务增长胜预 期，市占率持续提升。当前内地市场竞争环境中公司处于有利地位，营销投入投放效率提升趋势将持 续，海外市场投入对整体公司利润影响可控。该行对携程估值延伸至2026年，基于2026年市盈率20倍， 将公司目标价从591港元上调至653港元，维持"买入"。 ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·旅游及消闲设施(HS) 携程集团-S（09961.HK） 2025Q2 业绩点评：利润及回购好于预期，国 际业务继续高增 买入（维持） | [盈利预测与估值 Table_EPS] | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 44,510 | 53,294 | 61,074 | 68,403 | 75,078 | | 同比（%） | 122.12 | 19.73 | 14.60 | 12.00 | 9.76 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 9,918 | 17,067 | 26,528 | 19,074 | 21,156 | | 同比（%） | 606.91 | 72.08 | 55.44 | (28.10) | 10.91 | | Non-GAAP 净利润（百万元） | 13,071 | 18,041 | 18,334 | 20,050 | 22,043 | | 同比（%） | 910.12 | 38.02 | 1.62 | 9.36 ...

美银证券发布研报称，携程集团-S(TCOM.US,09961)第二季净收入同比增长16%，非公认会计准则经营 溢利率31.4%，超出公司指引及市场预期。酒店和交通收入分别同比增长21%和11%，受惠高于同业的 双位数交易量增长，该行上调对携程目标价，由550港元上调至652港元，重申"买入"评级。管理层亦指 出夏季旅游预订需求强劲且交易量增长强劲，该行预测第三季收入同比增长14%。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that Ctrip's Q2 performance exceeded expectations, with hotel business growth surpassing forecasts and market share continuing to increase [1] - The company is positioned favorably in the current competitive environment of the domestic market, with a trend of improving marketing investment efficiency expected to continue [1] - The valuation for Ctrip has been extended to 2026, with a target price adjustment from HKD 591 to HKD 653 based on a 20x price-to-earnings ratio for 2026, while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

摩根士丹利发表研究报告指，携程第三季度正面展望再次证明领先的在线旅游代理的韧性，类似去年夏 季，而且表现持续超越整体旅游市场，先前的高强度营销投入正带来成果，保持持续的高增长。公司第 三季非通用会计准则经营溢利率指引为32%，符合预期。50亿美元的新股份回购计划是重大正面惊喜， 相较市场预期20亿美元回购，大幅提升对股东回报。该行对携程ADR目标价上调至83美元，维持"增 持"评级，并将今年至2027年非通用会计准则经营溢利预测上调1%至2%。 ...

Group 1: Summer Travel Trends - The summer travel season of 2025 has seen a significant increase in travel volume compared to the previous year, with long-distance travel being the primary focus [1][2] - Family travel and senior travel have shown notable growth, particularly among children aged 10 and under and seniors aged 60 and above [2] - Domestic and international travel bookings through platforms like Tuniu have experienced double-digit year-on-year growth [2][6] Group 2: Air Travel and Passenger Volume - The total passenger volume for civil aviation during the summer is expected to reach a historical high of 150 million, driven by affordable ticket prices and increased demand for long-distance travel [2] - Approximately 6 million first-time flyers are anticipated this summer, primarily consisting of children, students, and seniors [2] Group 3: Emerging Travel Preferences - There is a growing trend towards small group and private tours, with a significant increase in demand for personalized travel experiences [6][7] - The number of customized travel orders has surged, with a 53% increase in revenue from cross-province small group tours compared to 2024 [6] Group 4: Impact of Events and Entertainment - Events such as concerts and exhibitions have significantly boosted travel interest, with searches for accommodations and attractions near event venues increasing dramatically [10][11] - The popularity of sports events has also driven travel, with notable increases in bookings for destinations hosting these events [11] Group 5: Influence of Media and Culture - The release of popular films and TV shows has led to increased travel to filming locations, with some destinations experiencing over a 380% increase in search volume [12] - The success of domestic animations and dramas has particularly highlighted cultural tourism, with specific sites seeing substantial growth in visitor interest [12]

Summary of Trip.com Group Ltd (TCOM.O) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Trip.com Group Ltd (TCOM) - **Industry**: Online Travel Agency (OTA) in China - **Founded**: 1999, listed on NASDAQ in 2003 Key Financial Results - **2Q25 Performance**: Revenue increased by 16% year-over-year (YoY) to RMB 14.8 billion, exceeding expectations - **Segment Breakdown**: - Accommodation revenue: RMB 6.2 billion (+21% YoY) - Transportation ticketing: RMB 5.4 billion (+11% YoY) - Packaged tours: RMB 1.1 billion (+5% YoY) - Corporate travel: RMB 692 million (+9% YoY) - Other revenues: RMB 1.47 billion (+31% YoY) [11][12] Revenue Growth Projections - **Domestic Revenue Growth**: Projected at 9% YoY in 2H25, driven by hotel room nights growth despite softening transportation ticketing volume [2] - **Outbound Growth**: Expected to slow to low teens in 2H25 but still outperform the industry [2] Margin Insights - **Operating Margin**: Adjusted Operating Profit Margin (OPM) expected to improve to 32% in 3Q25, with a drop anticipated in 4Q25 due to seasonal factors [3] - **Marketing Efficiency**: Improved marketing optimization has positively impacted margins [3] Shareholder Return Strategy - **Share Repurchase Program**: Announced a USD 5 billion share repurchase program to offset dilution from Employee Stock Ownership Plans (ESOP) and support share price during volatility [4][12] Earnings Estimates - **Revised Earnings Estimates**: Increased by 2% for 2025, 2% for 2026, and 3% for 2027 [1] - **Target Price**: Raised to USD 85 from USD 78, reflecting a 30.2% expected share price return [6][10] Financial Metrics - **2023A Net Profit**: RMB 13,071 million - **2024A Net Profit**: RMB 18,041 million - **2025E Net Profit**: RMB 18,698 million - **2026E Net Profit**: RMB 21,231 million - **2027E Net Profit**: RMB 23,287 million [5] Risks and Challenges - **Downside Risks**: Include potential softening of the China macro environment, slower-than-expected recovery in travel demand, worsening spending and margins, intensified domestic competition, and new outbreaks of COVID-19 or other epidemics [26] Conclusion - **Investment Recommendation**: The stock is rated as a Buy due to resilient domestic performance, strong growth prospects, and a focus on shareholder returns [24][25]

Core Viewpoint - Trip.com Group reported strong financial performance in Q2 2025, exceeding expectations, driven by lower sales and marketing expenses, leading to an increase in target price and maintained Buy rating [1][3]. Financial Performance - Q2 2025 revenue reached Rmb14.9 billion, representing a 16% year-over-year increase, with a non-GAAP operating profit of Rmb4.7 billion and a non-GAAP operating profit margin of 31% [1]. - By business segment, accommodation reservation revenue increased by 21% YoY, transportation ticketing revenue rose by 11%, packaged-tour revenue grew by 5%, corporate travel revenue increased by 9%, and other business revenue surged by 31% [2]. - Overall reservations on the Trip.com brand increased by over 60% YoY, with inbound travel bookings more than doubling (over 100% YoY), and outbound hotel and air ticket bookings up by 20% compared to 2019 levels [2]. Share Repurchase Program - The company has fully utilized the US$400 million share repurchase authorization limit for 2025 and has approved a new multi-year repurchase program not exceeding US$5 billion to enhance shareholder returns [3]. Future Outlook - The non-GAAP EPS forecast for 2025 has been raised from Rmb27.7 to Rmb27.8, with forecasts for 2026 and 2027 maintained at Rmb29.7 and Rmb30 respectively [1]. - The target price has been increased from HK$590 to HK$618, indicating a 21% upside potential [1]. - The company is expected to maintain a leading position in China's online travel industry and has potential for market share growth internationally [3].