（原标题：调仓风向标|易方达张坤：逢高减持互联网，增持快递旅游板块） 中国基金报 孙晓辉 编者按：四月中旬起，公募基金2025年度一季报陆续披露，明星基金经理们的调仓动作和仓位变化也成为基民们关注的焦点。而在每一份定期报 告背后，也隐藏着这些优秀管理人的"投资秘籍"。基金君将继续为大家更新人物库专题【调仓风向标】，解码明星基金产品持仓变化及其管理人 的投资理念。 曾经的"顶流"如何换股调仓？4月22日，易方达基金张坤管理的4只主动权益基金公布2025年一季报。截至今年一季度末，张坤持仓总体稳定，保 持高仓位运作。他在今年一季度对结构进行了优化，调整了消费和科技等行业的持仓结构。 一季报中，张坤表示，自下而上观察，部分行业的竞争格局正在改善，投资者与其纠结于经济，不如把着眼点放在企业上。因为股票的收益率是 由企业的收益率决定的，拉长来看大致相当于企业的ROE水平。过去几年发生的股票收益率连续低于企业ROE水平的现象，他认为不会长期持续 下去。 本期【调仓风向标】，基金君将为大家详解易方达基金经理张坤今年一季报及其调仓变化。 一季度继续维持高仓位运作 张坤目前在管基金4只，截至今年一季度末总规模重返600亿元以上 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights that US-listed Chinese stocks exhibit characteristics such as concentrated market capitalization, multiple listings for leading companies, concentrated industry distribution, and a slowdown in the expansion of listings [2][8] - As of April 18, 2025, there are 390 Chinese companies listed in the US (excluding OTC), with a total market capitalization exceeding $900 billion. The top 25% of these stocks contribute over 98% of the total market value, with the top five companies (Alibaba, Pinduoduo, NetEase, JD.com, and Ctrip) accounting for approximately 60% of the total market capitalization [8][2] - The report indicates that 73% of the top 25% of Chinese stocks have achieved dual listings, with 45% completing dual primary listings and 26% achieving secondary listings in Hong Kong [2][8] Group 2 - The previous round of delisting crises for Chinese stocks began in 2020 and continued to evolve through 2021-2022, characterized by significant declines in stock prices, particularly for those not listed in Hong Kong, which experienced a greater average decline compared to those with dual listings [3][4] - The report outlines five phases of the delisting crisis, starting with the signing of the HFCAA by former President Trump, leading to a gradual escalation of market reactions and stock price declines, particularly after the SEC established implementation rules [3][16] - The report suggests that the current delisting situation may have a relatively controllable short-term impact on the market, as many leading Chinese stocks have already achieved dual listings, with a significant portion of their market value now in Hong Kong [4][21] Group 3 - The report emphasizes that the current policy environment is continuously improving, facilitating the return of Chinese stocks to the Hong Kong market. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has optimized its listing system for Chinese stocks, lowering the thresholds for secondary listings [21][4] - It is projected that within the next 3-5 years, approximately 24% of the market capitalization of Chinese stocks may meet the conditions for returning to Hong Kong, with less than 5% not qualifying for secondary listing conditions [21][4] - The influx of southbound capital is expected to provide additional liquidity support for the return of Chinese stocks to the Hong Kong market, as this capital shows a strong preference for new economy assets [20][21]

今天分享的是：携程商旅：2024-2025年商旅管理市场白皮书 报告共计：113页 《2024 - 2025年商旅管理市场白皮书》由携程商旅发布，对中国及全球商旅管理市场进行了全面深入的剖析，展现了商旅行业的发展现状、趋势以及面临的 挑战与机遇。 1. 市场发展历程与现状：中国商旅市场历经十年发展，从1.0到5.0时代，实现了线上化、移动化、电子化、数智化、全球化的转变。受疫情影响，商旅行业 经历波动后，2024年市场规模超越2019年，进入全新增长期。全球商旅市场也在2024年恢复至疫情前水平，预计2028年规模将达2万亿美元，中国保持全球 最大商务旅行市场地位。 2. 市场趋势：企业经营信心增强，2024 - 2025年国内外差旅预算和频次均呈上升趋势。不同行业差旅情况各异，如制造业、信息与通信业差旅规模增长显 著。出差目的中，国内侧重客户拜访，国际偏重会展。MICE活动数量总体增加，且不同活动类型呈现不同发展趋势。下沉市场差旅占比趋稳，部分行业下 沉明显。 3. 全球化与AI影响：全球化背景下，跨境商旅增长强劲，中国"免签朋友圈"扩容，国际差旅占比上升，东南亚仍是主要目的地。中企出海和外企来华趋势明 显 ...

内容概况：随着我国经济的快速发展和居民消费结构的升级，票务系统应用行业市场规模呈现出持续增 长的态势。近年来，在交通、娱乐、企业活动等多个领域票务需求的推动下，票务系统市场规模不断扩 大。根据相关统计数据，过去几年我国票务系统应用行业的市场规模年增长率保持在一定水平之上，从 早期的较小规模发展到目前数百亿元的市场规模，并且仍有增长潜力。2022年，我国票务系统应用行业 市场规模约为328.22亿元。到2024年，市场规模上涨至407.83亿元。随着居民文化消费水平的进一步提 升和旅游市场的持续繁荣，以及交通出行的便捷性需求不断增加，我国票务系统应用行业市场规模有望 持续增长。 相关上市企业：携程集团（HK.09961）、猫眼娱乐（HK.01896）、广电运通（002152）、南天信息 （000948）、东方通信（600776） 相关企业：北京趣拿软件科技有限公司、北京大麦文化传媒发展有限公司、杭州淘票票科技有限公司、 南京途牛科技有限公司、北京保利票务发展有限公司 关键词：票务系统应用行业产业链、票务系统应用行业发展现状、票务系统应用行业发展趋势 一、票务系统应用行业定义及分类 票务系统应用是一种基于计算机技 ...

Company Performance - Trip.com closed at $57.62, reflecting a -1% change from the previous trading session, underperforming compared to the S&P 500's gain of 2.03% [1] - Over the last month, Trip.com's shares decreased by 7.78%, while the Consumer Discretionary sector and the S&P 500 saw losses of 4.94% and 5.07%, respectively [1] Earnings Forecast - The upcoming earnings report is expected to show an EPS of $0.86, representing a 3.61% increase from the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue is projected at $1.91 billion, indicating a 15.93% growth compared to the previous year [2] Fiscal Year Estimates - For the entire fiscal year, earnings are estimated at $3.44 per share, a decrease of 4.18% from the prior year, while revenue is expected to reach $8.45 billion, an increase of 14.02% [3] - Recent changes in analyst estimates suggest a positive outlook for the company's business and profitability [3] Valuation Metrics - Trip.com has a Forward P/E ratio of 16.9, which is slightly lower than the industry average of 16.98 [6] - The company also has a PEG ratio of 1.04, compared to the industry average PEG ratio of 1.17 [7] Industry Context - The Leisure and Recreation Services industry, part of the Consumer Discretionary sector, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 139, placing it in the bottom 44% of over 250 industries [8] - Historically, the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [8]

自4月3日美国总统特朗普正式宣布"对等关税"以来，中美之间多次互相提高关税，目前双方相互加征的关税都已在100%以上。且随着贸易摩擦的升温，中美两国 之间的角力有着进一步向其他领域扩散的风险。 值得关注的是：① 近日美国财政部长曾表示， 不排除以在美上市的中概公司强制退市，作为两国间谈判的筹码之一；② 2月21日， 白宫发布了"America First Investment Policy"备忘录中，也提及了在一定情况下限制美国资金投资于部分中国公司/资产的可能性。 虽然上述两条潜在的风险截至目前仅停留在口头阶段，美国政府尚没有进行任何实质性的动作。但历史上，中概退市威胁并非没有先例： 2020年~2022年间美国政 府就曾以HFCAA法案下，无法获得中概上市公司的审计监管权的原因，正式推进过中概在美退市。 尽管后续中美两国政府达成了协议，中概从美股全面退市并没真正发生，但仍有中移动等公司在争端期间被美政府强制退市，后有如中国石油等在争端缓解后仍 主动选择退市。 由此可见，无论是 强制中概从美股退市、抑或禁止美国资金投资中国资产，虽然最终落地的概率应当非常小，但属于存在先例、不能视而不见的"黑天鹅"风险。 海 ...

Corporate Structure and Compliance - The company is classified as a large accelerated filer under the SEC regulations[12]. - The financial statements are prepared in accordance with U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP)[12]. - The company has submitted all required reports under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 in the past 12 months[12]. - The company has an effective internal control report as per the Sarbanes-Oxley Act[12]. - The company is not a shell company as defined under the Securities Exchange Act[13]. - The company has not disclosed any unresolved staff comments from the SEC[15]. - The company has not reported any defaults on senior securities or dividend arrearages[15]. - The company has established a series of contractual arrangements with its variable interest entities (VIEs) and their shareholders, which include power of attorney, technical consulting and service agreements, equity pledge contracts, exclusive purchase rights agreements, and loan contracts[43]. - The contractual arrangements provide the company with effective control over the VIEs, allowing it to consolidate their operating results, financial position, and cash flows into its financial statements according to US GAAP[43]. - The company does not own equity interests in the VIEs, and investors in American depositary shares are purchasing shares of the Cayman Islands holding company, not the VIEs[48]. - The company has not verified the legality of its contractual arrangements in Chinese courts, which adds to the risk factors associated with its corporate structure[44]. - The company is subject to significant uncertainty regarding compliance with future regulatory developments, which may require cybersecurity reviews or other specific actions for companies listed on foreign exchanges[46]. - The company has obtained all necessary permits for its business operations in China, except for certain minor permits related to auxiliary services in transportation ticketing, which account for a negligible portion of transportation ticketing revenue[54]. - The company has not received any written rejections from government agencies regarding the necessary permits for its business operations as of the report date[54]. - The PCAOB has determined that it cannot fully inspect or investigate registered public accounting firms based in mainland China and Hong Kong, which may affect the company's compliance with the HFCAA[51]. - The company does not expect to be classified as a commission-recognized issuer under the HFCAA after filing its Form 20-F for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024[52]. - The company is subject to various privacy and data protection laws across multiple jurisdictions, which could lead to sanctions and reputational damage if not complied with[131]. - The company is at risk of being classified as a "critical information infrastructure operator," which would impose additional obligations not currently applicable[132]. - The company must comply with foreign exchange registration requirements for Chinese residents participating in stock incentive plans, which could lead to fines and legal sanctions if not adhered to[172]. Financial Performance - Total revenue increased by 122% from RMB 20 billion in 2022 to RMB 44.6 billion in 2023, and further projected to grow by 20% to RMB 53.4 billion (USD 7.3 billion) in 2024[29]. - Net profit rose from RMB 1.4 billion in 2022 to RMB 10 billion in 2023, with a forecasted increase to RMB 17.2 billion (USD 2.36 billion) in 2024[29]. - Accommodation booking revenue accounted for 37%, 39%, and 40% of total revenue in 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively, with figures of RMB 7.4 billion, RMB 17.3 billion, and RMB 21.6 billion (USD 3 billion) for those years[30]. - Transportation ticketing revenue represented 41% of total revenue in both 2022 and 2023, decreasing to 38% in 2024, with revenues of RMB 8.3 billion, RMB 18.4 billion, and RMB 20.3 billion (USD 2.8 billion) respectively[30]. - Travel vacation revenue increased significantly from RMB 797 million in 2022 to RMB 4.3 billion (USD 594 million) in 2024[31]. - Business travel management revenue grew from RMB 1.1 billion in 2022 to RMB 2.5 billion (USD 343 million) in 2024[31]. - Other business revenue, including online advertising and financial services, increased from RMB 2.5 billion in 2022 to RMB 4.6 billion (USD 634 million) in 2024[32]. - Operating profit surged from RMB 88 million in 2022 to RMB 11.3 billion in 2023, with a projected increase to RMB 14.2 billion (USD 1.94 billion) in 2024[35]. - Total operating expenses rose from RMB 15.4 billion in 2022 to RMB 29.1 billion in 2024, reflecting increased investment in product development and marketing[35]. - The company anticipates continued growth in revenue and profitability, driven by expansion in accommodation and transportation services[34]. - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 17,067 million for 2024, projecting a further increase in profitability[36]. - The company has significant debt obligations, with RMB 19.6 billion (USD 2.7 billion) due within one year and RMB 20.6 billion (USD 2.8 billion) due after one year as of December 31, 2024[88]. - The company's goodwill amounted to RMB 60.9 billion (USD 8.3 billion) as of December 31, 2024, and any significant decline in the recoverability of these assets may lead to substantial impairment charges[90]. Market Presence and Operations - The company has been expanding its global presence, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, which is one of the fastest-growing areas for travel consumption[27]. - The company offers a comprehensive range of travel products and services, including accommodation booking, transportation ticketing, and business travel management[26]. - The Trip.com app has become one of the most downloaded online travel agency applications in several markets, including South Korea, Singapore, Thailand, and Hong Kong[23]. - The company has established nine customer service centers and sixteen call centers globally to enhance online channel competitiveness[24]. - Over 90% of total transaction orders were placed through mobile channels as of December 31, 2024[23]. - The open platform has approximately 1.5 million global accommodation services and over 640 airline partners as of December 31, 2024[25]. - The company has adopted an open platform business model to attract ecosystem partners to launch customized travel products[24]. - The company has a strong user base and competitive position in the travel market, leveraging advanced AI technology and industry insights[22]. - The company provides personalized, convenient, and inspiring travel experiences through various online channels, including mobile apps and localized websites[23]. - The company relies heavily on maintaining relationships with ecosystem partners, such as hotels and airlines, to ensure service availability and competitive pricing[78]. - The company generates revenue through commissions from ticket sales via airline partners, but there is a risk of unfavorable changes in partnership terms[80]. - Strategic alliances with ecosystem partners are crucial for revenue growth, and failure to establish or maintain these alliances could negatively impact market penetration and profitability[81]. Risks and Challenges - The company faces various legal and operational risks in China, including complex and changing regulations that may impact its ability to comply with regulatory requirements[46]. - The Chinese government's regulatory power may severely restrict or completely hinder the company's ability to issue or continue issuing securities to investors[47]. - The company may face significant adverse changes in its operations and the value of its American depositary shares due to risks associated with the Chinese legal system and regulatory environment[47]. - The company faces significant competition from both new and existing travel agencies, which may impact market share and business performance[92]. - Aggressive advertising and promotional campaigns by competitors have led to increased expenses, potentially affecting quarterly or annual operating profit margins[93]. - The company faces risks related to foreign investment restrictions in China, which may create significant uncertainties[68]. - The company faces significant operational and legal risks associated with conducting business in mainland China, which may impact growth and profitability[60]. - A severe or prolonged global economic downturn could have a significant adverse effect on the company's business and financial performance[61]. - The overall decline or turmoil in the travel industry may significantly adversely affect the company's business and operating performance[62]. - The company has incurred substantial debt and may generate additional debt in the future, potentially impacting its ability to meet cash obligations[62]. - The company faces risks from geopolitical uncertainties, natural disasters, and travel restrictions that could disrupt operations and financial performance[76]. - The company may struggle to implement its global expansion strategy due to challenges such as cultural differences and local market dynamics, potentially impacting its operational complexity[148]. - The company cannot guarantee successful management of risks associated with international business expansion, which may adversely affect its financial condition and operational results[152]. Regulatory Environment - The company faces significant compliance costs due to evolving legal and regulatory frameworks across various jurisdictions, impacting operational practices[153]. - The regulatory environment regarding consumer data collection and privacy is becoming increasingly stringent, with potential risks of sanctions and reputational damage if compliance is not met[154]. - The company faces uncertainties regarding the interpretation and implementation of antitrust guidelines in the internet platform economy, which may impact its business operations[165]. - The National Market Supervision Administration has emphasized compliance with antitrust laws, and companies are required to conduct self-inspections and rectify any violations, with potential for severe penalties for non-compliance[166]. - Future amendments to the Antitrust Law may complicate the company's past acquisitions and investments due to increased scrutiny and pre-filing requirements[167]. - The company is subject to various privacy and data protection laws across multiple jurisdictions, which could lead to sanctions and reputational damage if not complied with[131]. - The company must comply with foreign exchange registration requirements for Chinese residents participating in stock incentive plans, which could lead to fines and legal sanctions if not adhered to[172]. Technology and Innovation - The company invested RMB 13.1 billion (approximately USD 1.8 billion) in product research and development for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024[70]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its content marketing capabilities and user engagement through innovative formats such as live streaming[71]. - The company is investing in artificial intelligence and cloud technology to improve its infrastructure and services[71]. - The company relies on an internally developed booking software system, and any inability to upgrade systems to meet future traffic demands may adversely affect business performance[101]. - The company faces increased costs due to the need to develop services compatible with various mobile operating systems and devices, which is critical for market penetration[102]. Human Resources and Management - The company's future success heavily depends on the continued service of its senior management, and losing them could severely disrupt operations[103]. - The company must attract and retain key personnel to support business expansion, and failure to do so may lead to unsatisfactory user experiences[104]. Economic Conditions - Global economic conditions, including inflation and geopolitical tensions, may significantly impact the company's growth and profitability[72]. - The travel industry downturn could adversely affect the company's business and financial performance due to its sensitivity to discretionary spending[74]. - The company may experience adverse effects on its business and financial performance due to unfavorable changes in government policies and economic conditions in China[158]. - China's economic growth rate has been gradually slowing since 2010, with the COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacting economic activity from 2020 to 2022, potentially reducing demand for the company's products and services[159].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market opened with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.6% and the Tech Index down by 0.54% [1] - Trip.com Group Limited (09961.HK) led the decline among constituent stocks, falling by 4.55% [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3][5]. Core Insights - Ctrip has established significant competitive advantages through supply lock-in and a comprehensive service system, positioning it favorably against both domestic and international competitors [4][5]. - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth rates of 14.8%, 13.8%, and 12.9% for the years 2025 to 2027, with projected revenues of 612.6 billion, 697.3 billion, and 787.0 billion yuan respectively [5]. - Ctrip's long-term growth potential is enhanced by changes in domestic consumer demand and accelerated international expansion, making its growth trajectory more favorable compared to many trading platforms [4][5]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Ctrip has a total share capital of 684 million shares, with a market price of 518 HKD, resulting in a market capitalization of 354,067 million HKD [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Ctrip are as follows: 44,562 million yuan in 2023, 53,377 million yuan in 2024, and expected growth to 61,260 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 122% in 2023 and 20% in 2024 [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 9,918 million yuan in 2023, increasing to 17,067 million yuan in 2024, but expected to decline slightly to 16,145 million yuan in 2025 [3]. Competitive Positioning - Ctrip's competitive edge is attributed to three main factors: supply lock-in, a differentiated user profile, and high infrastructure barriers due to the nature of travel services [4][5]. - The report highlights that the impact of hotel concentration on OTA market share and take rate is limited, suggesting that Ctrip's market position remains strong despite these changes [4][5]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that Ctrip's ecosystem is better positioned than that of international leaders like Booking and Expedia, primarily due to the differences in internet user behavior and the absence of a dominant traffic distributor like Google in China [4][5]. - Ctrip's international business is expected to contribute significantly to its revenue, with outbound tourism and international OTA operations projected to account for one-third of the group's income [12]. Conclusion - Overall, Ctrip's robust competitive advantages, favorable market positioning, and strong financial projections support the "Buy" rating, indicating a positive outlook for investors [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved a net income of 12.7 billion RMB in Q4 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 23%, with adjusted EBITDA of 3 billion RMB and an adjusted net profit of 3 billion RMB, up 14% year-on-year, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations [8] - The international business is expected to continue strong growth in 2025, driven by simplified visa processes and increased international flight availability, with outbound hotel and flight bookings recovering to over 120% of 2019 levels [8] - Domestic tourism demand remains resilient, with inbound tourism contributing to growth, and the company is enhancing user experience through AI tools, leading to significant increases in user engagement [8] - The report anticipates a decline in gross margin due to the increasing contribution of lower-margin international business, but long-term profitability is expected to improve as the company expands its global market presence [8] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been slightly lowered, but a new forecast for 2027 has been added, indicating continued confidence in the company's international growth potential [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 53.3 billion RMB in 2024 to 78.5 billion RMB in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.49% [1] - The adjusted net profit is expected to increase from 17.1 billion RMB in 2024 to 22 billion RMB in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [1] - The company's P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 16.44 in 2024 to 14.19 in 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics over time [1]