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携程集团(09961.HK):业绩稳健超预期 回购力度加大
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-29 18:53
Core Viewpoint - The company reported better-than-expected financial results for Q2 2025, driven by strong accommodation revenue and effective cost control measures [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q2 2025 revenue increased by 16% to 14.9 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations by 1% due to higher-than-expected accommodation revenue [1]. - Non-GAAP net profit reached 5 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 34%, surpassing market expectations by 15% due to controlled marketing expenses and additional government subsidies [1]. - The company completed its previously announced $400 million shareholder return plan ahead of schedule and approved a new buyback plan of up to $5 billion in August 2025 [1]. Industry Trends - Domestic hotel bookings grew faster than the industry average, with accommodation revenue of 6.2 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a 21% year-on-year increase, exceeding market expectations by 3% [1]. - The overall hotel industry showed a decline in occupancy rates (OCC) by 4% and average daily rates (ADR) by 1% during the summer period, indicating a challenging environment [1]. - The company expects domestic hotel night volume to maintain low double-digit year-on-year growth in Q3 2025, with ADR declines narrowing to low single digits [1]. International Travel - Outbound travel bookings recovered to over 120% of 2019 levels in Q2 2025, outperforming the industry average of 84% recovery in flight volumes [2]. - The company anticipates a slight slowdown in year-on-year growth for outbound revenue due to high base effects from last year's summer travel [2]. - Trip.com maintained rapid growth with international OTA bookings increasing by over 60% in Q2, and the company's share of group revenue rising to 14% [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has adjusted its 2025 non-GAAP net profit forecast upward by 8% to 17.7 billion yuan, while maintaining the 2026 forecast at 18.9 billion yuan [2]. - The company continues to rate outperforming the industry and has switched to a 2026 PE valuation method, maintaining target prices of $75.9 for US stocks and HK$588.5 for Hong Kong stocks, indicating potential upside of 16% and 15% respectively [2].
携程集团-S(9961.HK):利润略超预期 新增回购提振市场信心
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-29 18:52
Core Insights - Ctrip Group reported Q2 2025 revenue of 14.83 billion yuan, a 16.2% increase, and a NON-GAAP net profit of 5.01 billion yuan, a 0.5% increase, with overall revenue meeting guidance and performance slightly exceeding expectations [1][3] - The company experienced steady release of domestic travel demand since Q2 2025, with inbound and international business continuing to show high growth trends, supported by optimized domestic marketing expenses and effective personnel cost control [1][2] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from various segments includes accommodation bookings at 6.23 billion yuan (+21.2%), transportation tickets at 5.40 billion yuan (+10.8%), travel vacation at 1.08 billion yuan (+5.3%), business travel management at 690 million yuan (+9.3%), and other businesses at 1.47 billion yuan (+31.0%) [1] Profitability Analysis - The overall gross margin for the period was 81.0%, down 0.9 percentage points, primarily due to the increasing proportion of lower-margin international business [2] - The adjusted operating profit margin (OPM) was 31.5%, down 1.7 percentage points, with the NON-GAAP net profit margin at 33.8%, down 5.3 percentage points [2] Growth Drivers - The outbound, overseas, and inbound businesses showed rapid growth, with outbound hotel and flight bookings exceeding 120% of pre-pandemic levels from 2019, and international OTA platform bookings increasing over 60% year-on-year, while inbound tourism bookings more than doubled [2] - A new share repurchase plan was approved, with an expected total repurchase scale of up to 5 billion USD, alongside dividends, aiming to provide continuous investment returns to shareholders [2] Investment Outlook - The company maintains a "strong buy" rating, anticipating sustained growth in performance driven by the maturation of international market operations and improved profitability of trip.com [3]
携程集团(9961.HK):2季度业绩超预期 内地营销投放效率提升趋势将持续
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-29 18:52
Core Viewpoint - The company reported better-than-expected Q2 performance, with hotel business growth surpassing expectations and market share continuing to increase. The competitive environment in mainland China is favorable for the company, and the trend of improving marketing investment efficiency is expected to continue. Although competition in some overseas markets has intensified, the impact on overall company profits is manageable. The target price has been raised based on a 20x 2026 P/E ratio, maintaining a buy rating [1]. Group 1 - Q2 revenue reached 14.9 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 16%, slightly above market expectations [2]. - The growth breakdown includes accommodation up 21%, transportation up 11%, vacation up 5%, and business travel up 9% [2]. - The number of hotel room nights in mainland China increased by over 15% year-on-year, exceeding the expected growth of over 10% [2]. Group 2 - Adjusted net profit was 5 billion RMB, remaining stable year-on-year and exceeding market expectations by 19% [2]. - The net profit margin was 34%, a decline of approximately 5 percentage points due to ongoing investments in overseas markets [2]. - For Q3, revenue is expected to grow by 15% year-on-year, with hotel revenue increasing by 18%, driven primarily by the growth in room nights [2].
携程集团-S(09961.HK):收入利润超预期 海外保持高增
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-29 18:52
Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong Q2 performance with significant revenue and profit growth, driven by robust demand in accommodation and transportation sectors, alongside effective cost management strategies [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q2, the company achieved net revenue of 14.843 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.2% - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 4.846 billion yuan, up 26.4% year-on-year - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.011 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year [1]. Business Segment Analysis - Accommodation revenue was 6.225 billion yuan, growing 21.2% year-on-year and 12.3% quarter-on-quarter - Transportation revenue stood at 5.397 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10.8% and stable quarter-on-quarter performance - Vacation revenue reached 1.079 billion yuan, up 5.3% year-on-year and 13.9% quarter-on-quarter - Business travel revenue was 0.692 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 9.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20.8% [1]. Cost Management - The gross margin was 81.0%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year - Non-GAAP sales expense ratio was 22.1%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year - R&D expense ratio was 21.8%, up 0.9 percentage points year-on-year - Management expense ratio was 5.7%, down 0.4 percentage points year-on-year - Lower-than-expected sales expense investment contributed to better-than-expected profit performance [1]. Market Recovery and Growth - The recovery of outbound tourism is faster than the industry average, with Q2 hotel and flight bookings exceeding 120% of 2019 levels, compared to the industry’s 84% - The company’s international OTA platform bookings grew over 60% year-on-year in Q2 - Inbound tourism saw over 100% year-on-year growth, with the company expanding its inbound group tour offerings across 22 countries and 23 sites [2]. Share Buyback Initiatives - The company has repurchased 400 million USD since February and has approved a new share buyback plan to repurchase up to 5 billion USD worth of stock [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve adjusted net profits of 18.144 billion yuan, 20.954 billion yuan, and 24.048 billion yuan for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 respectively - The current stock price corresponds to a Non-GAAP PE valuation of 19, 17, and 15 times for the respective years, maintaining a "buy" rating [2].
携程集团-S(09961):国际业务增速可观,短期营销投入小幅影响盈利能力
Yin He Zheng Quan· 2025-08-29 13:05
Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive investment rating to the company, indicating a favorable outlook for its stock performance in the coming months [3]. Core Insights - The company is projected to experience significant revenue growth, with total revenue expected to increase from 53.29 billion to 79.93 billion over the next four years, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.47% [8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 17.07 billion to 23.34 billion, indicating a strong growth trajectory [8]. - The report highlights a stable gross margin, expected to remain around 81% to 82.5%, which suggests effective cost management and pricing power [8]. - The company's cash flow from operating activities is anticipated to grow steadily, reaching 25.39 billion by 2027, which supports its financial health and ability to reinvest in growth [7]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for various segments indicate robust growth, with accommodation bookings expected to grow from 5.59 billion in Q3 2023 to 8.30 billion by Q2 2025, representing a year-over-year growth rate of 22% [6]. - The total operating income is projected to increase from 13.75 billion in 2024 to 18.57 billion by 2027, with a consistent year-over-year growth rate [6]. - The company's EBITDA is expected to rise from 20.08 billion to 28.32 billion over the same period, reflecting operational efficiency [8]. Key Financial Ratios - The report outlines key financial ratios, including a projected return on equity (ROE) of 11.48% by 2027, indicating effective use of equity capital [8]. - The debt-to-equity ratio is expected to improve, with a net debt ratio projected to decrease significantly, indicating a strengthening balance sheet [8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 26.10 to 32.71, reflecting the company's profitability growth [8].
喧嚣背后“暑运”市场悄然变革,大众休闲度假将取代集中出游
Hua Xia Shi Bao· 2025-08-29 12:42
Core Insights - The 2025 summer travel season has shown strong growth in demand for travel services, with significant increases in order volume and traveler numbers, indicating a prosperous market for online travel service providers (OTAs) [2][3] - The travel market is undergoing a transformation driven by factors such as market maturity, changing consumer habits due to declining birth rates, and a shift towards leisure travel [2] Group 1: Market Performance - Alibaba's travel platform, Fliggy, reported a strong demand for travel during the summer, with a 9.9% year-on-year increase in average order value [3] - Ctrip's report highlighted that nearly half of domestic travelers opted for long-distance trips, reflecting a more rational consumption structure [3] - Popular cooling destinations like Guizhou and Yunnan saw order increases of over 80%, while lesser-known spots like Chifeng and Dandong experienced a 200% rise in orders [3] Group 2: Regional Highlights - Xinjiang's tourism orders increased by over 20% during the summer, with a notable 68% rise in interest due to the popularity of the TV series "A Mortal's Journey to Immortality" [4] - Shanxi's tourism saw a 43% increase in ticket sales, with a 40% rise in overall orders, making it one of the top three cities for growth during the summer [5] Group 3: Consumer Trends - The student demographic remains active in travel, with a 15.1% increase in average order value, indicating a preference for higher-quality travel experiences [5] - The trend of "sports + cultural tourism" was exemplified by the 2025 Curry Brand Asia Tour in Chongqing, which saw a sixfold increase in visitors [5] Group 4: Airline Industry Insights - The civil aviation sector is experiencing record passenger volumes, with an estimated 150 million travelers expected during the summer, marking a historical high [6] - Despite the increase in passenger numbers, average ticket prices for domestic flights have decreased, with a 7.5% drop in July compared to the previous year [7][8] Group 5: Hotel Industry Trends - Hotel bookings show a significant increase in demand for mid to high-star hotels, with consumers willing to pay more for better accommodations [9] - The trend indicates a shift towards higher-quality lodging experiences, particularly among families traveling during the summer [9]
海外消费周报:海外社服:携程、蜜雪集团、古茗业绩超预期-20250829
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ctrip and Mxue Group, while upgrading Mxue Group's rating from "Hold" to "Buy" [2][8]. Core Insights - Ctrip's Q2 2025 revenue grew by 16% year-on-year to 14.9 billion yuan, with a non-GAAP operating profit of 4.7 billion yuan and a non-GAAP operating margin of 31%, exceeding expectations due to lower marketing expenses [2][7]. - Mxue Group's H1 2025 revenue reached 14.9 billion yuan, a 39% increase year-on-year, with net profit of 2.7 billion yuan, up 44%, driven by higher-than-expected store openings [2][8]. - Gu Ming's H1 2025 revenue was 5.7 billion yuan, a 41% year-on-year increase, with adjusted core profit of 1.1 billion yuan, up 49%, attributed to higher store count and single-store revenue [3][9]. Summary by Sections Ctrip - Q2 2025 revenue increased by 16% to 14.9 billion yuan, with accommodation booking revenue up 21%, transportation revenue up 11%, and group travel revenue up 5% [2][7]. - International OTA platform bookings grew over 60% year-on-year, with inbound tourism bookings more than doubling [2][7]. - The company has fully utilized its $400 million share buyback authorization and approved a new buyback plan of up to $5 billion [2][7]. Mxue Group - H1 2025 revenue was 14.9 billion yuan, a 39% increase, with net profit of 2.7 billion yuan, up 44% [2][8]. - The company is expanding in Southeast Asia, with daily sales growth in Indonesia and Vietnam, and plans for new stores in the U.S. and Latin America [2][8]. - The Lucky Coffee brand complements Mxue's offerings, focusing on freshly ground coffee, enhancing supply chain advantages [2][8]. Gu Ming - H1 2025 revenue reached 5.7 billion yuan, a 41% increase, with adjusted core profit of 1.1 billion yuan, up 49% [3][9]. - The company added 1,265 new stores, bringing the total to 11,179, with a significant increase in stores in lower-tier cities [3][9]. - The average daily GMV per store grew by 21% to 7,600 yuan, benefiting from substantial takeout subsidies [3][9]. Domestic Pharmaceutical Companies - Xinda Biologics reported H1 2025 revenue of 5.953 billion yuan, a 50.6% increase, with net profit turning positive at 834 million yuan [4][13]. - Kangfang Biologics achieved H1 2025 revenue of 1.472 billion yuan, a 37.8% increase, but reported a net loss of 588 million yuan [4][13]. - Rongchang Biologics reported H1 2025 revenue of 1.092 billion yuan, a 47.6% increase, with a reduced net loss of 450 million yuan [4][13]. Overseas Pharmaceutical Companies - Eli Lilly's GLP-1 obesity drug trial showed significant weight loss results, with the 36mg group achieving a 10.5% average weight reduction [5][16]. - BioArctic partnered with Novartis to develop a new CNS drug, receiving an upfront payment of $30 million [5][16]. - Regeneron announced positive results for its MG drug in a Phase III trial, achieving key endpoints [5][16].
“你好!中国”2025亚洲旅行商中国行圆满落幕 亚洲百强旅行商深度体验多元中国
Yang Zi Wan Bao Wang· 2025-08-29 10:28
2025年8月12日至22日,由文化和旅游部国际交流与合作局主办,沈阳、长春、宁波等13个城市与携程集团联合承办的"心见中国共绘新程——你好!中国 2025亚洲旅行商中国行"活动成功举办。来自日本、韩国、新加坡、马来西亚等十余个国家的超100位亚洲头部旅行商代表,在11天中深入中国多地,开展 文化旅游考察与业务洽谈,达成多项合作意向。 嘉宾通过自己的海外社媒直播采风 本次活动以"体验+合作"为主线,推动海外旅行商从"体验者"转变为"合作者"。不少旅行商通过IInstagram、Facebook等海外社交平台实时分享见闻:韩国 代表晒出宏村晨雾,配文"每帧都是电影";马来西亚代表笑谈"为一包香菇干学会了中文讲价"。这些真实互动有效传播了中国文旅魅力。部分旅行社现场 提出产品合作计划,如开发黄山鱼灯非遗体验、桂林科考主题游等专项线路,携程集团也借此展示了全链路产品承接与服务能力,为入境游市场注入新动 能。 嘉宾在携程海外版上获取入境游攻略 行程期间,专业且细致的接待服务广受好评。"从签证协助到全程交通接驳,再到多语种向导的细致讲解,每一个环节都让人感受到了中国旅游服务的专 业水准。"韩国代表的赞叹道出了众人的心声 ...
携程集团-S(09961):收入利润超预期,海外保持高增
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-08-29 09:18
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a net revenue of 14.843 billion yuan in Q2 2025, representing a year-over-year growth of 16.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.846 billion yuan, up 26.4% year-over-year [2]. - The company's performance in accommodation and transportation segments exceeded expectations, with accommodation revenue at 6.225 billion yuan (up 21.2% YoY) and transportation revenue at 5.397 billion yuan (up 10.8% YoY) [3]. - The recovery of outbound tourism is faster than the industry average, with hotel and flight bookings surpassing 120% of 2019 levels, and international OTA platform bookings growing over 60% year-over-year [4]. - The company has repurchased 400 million USD worth of shares and approved a new buyback plan for up to 5 billion USD [4]. Financial Performance - The company expects adjusted net profits for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 to be 18.144 billion yuan, 20.954 billion yuan, and 24.048 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a slight upward revision from previous estimates [5]. - The projected Non-GAAP P/E ratios for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 are 19, 17, and 15 times respectively [5]. - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 44.51 billion yuan in 2023 to 79.473 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 14.19% [10].
“你好!中国”2025亚洲旅行商中国行活动圆满落幕
Huan Qiu Wang· 2025-08-29 09:13
Group 1 - The event "Hello! China 2025 Asian Travel Agents Tour" successfully concluded, showcasing China's diverse cultural and tourism appeal to over 100 representatives from leading travel agencies across more than ten Asian countries [1] - The journey transformed travel agents from mere "experiencers" to "collaborators," with discussions on creating specialized travel products for destinations like Huangshan and Guilin [1][3] - Ctrip's comprehensive service capabilities were highlighted, facilitating the transformation of event enthusiasm into sustainable growth for the inbound tourism market [3] Group 2 - The event emphasized professional service and warm hospitality, with participants praising the meticulous arrangements, including visa assistance and multilingual guides, reflecting the high standards of Chinese tourism service [3] - The travel agents left with not only beautiful memories but also a renewed understanding of China's cultural tourism and collaborative opportunities, fostering a deeper connection between Asian tourism sectors [5] - The initiative aims to bridge cultural understanding and promote cross-border tourism, with a focus on professional service and cultural empathy as key elements for future collaboration [5]