Market Overview - On September 18, Hong Kong's three major indices experienced a pullback, with the Hang Seng Index down 1.35% to 26,544.85 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.99% to 6,271.22 points, and the National Enterprises Index down 1.46% to 9,456.52 points. The tech sector saw a decline, while the semiconductor and robotics industries performed well, with Hua Hong Semiconductor rising over 8.5% and SMIC up over 2.5% [1] Southbound Capital - On September 18, southbound funds recorded a net inflow of HKD 62.88 billion, with Meituan, Alibaba, and Pop Mart receiving net purchases of HKD 14.12 billion, HKD 12.1 billion, and HKD 12.07 billion, respectively. Year-to-date, the cumulative net inflow of southbound funds has reached HKD 1,099.89 billion, significantly surpassing last year's total [2] U.S. Market Performance - U.S. stock indices reached new closing highs, with the Dow Jones up 0.27%, the S&P 500 up 0.48%, and the Nasdaq up 0.94%. Notable gains were seen in Caterpillar and NVIDIA, both rising over 3%. However, many Chinese concept stocks declined, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 1.79% [3] Key Developments 1. NVIDIA announced a USD 5 billion investment in Intel, purchasing shares at USD 23.28 each, a 6.5% discount to Intel's previous closing price [4] 2. At Huawei's Connect 2025 event, the company unveiled its Ascend chip roadmap, planning three series of chips through 2028, including the Ascend 950 series [4] 3. Kuaishou's Keling AI launched a new digital human feature, allowing users to create 1080p/48FPS videos from images and text or audio [4] Short Selling Data - On September 18, a total of 641 Hong Kong stocks were short-sold, with a total short-selling amount of HKD 37.879 billion. Alibaba, Baidu, and Tencent had the highest short-selling amounts, at HKD 47.94 billion, HKD 25.6 billion, and HKD 23.06 billion, respectively [5] Institutional Insights - Zheshang Securities highlighted the rapid development of AI applications in Hong Kong's internet sector, suggesting that the sector is at a historical low in valuation. The firm recommends focusing on leading internet companies with AI advancements, such as Alibaba, Baidu, and Tencent, as well as vertical application companies like Kuaishou and Meitu [6] Hong Kong ETFs - The Hong Kong Consumption ETF (513230) focuses on e-commerce and new consumption sectors, while the Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (513180) includes core AI assets and leading tech companies [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - SMIC's stock price increased by 4.05% on September 18, with a trading volume of 23.495 billion yuan, indicating strong market interest and activity in the company's shares [1] Financing Summary - On September 18, SMIC had a financing buy-in amount of 4.533 billion yuan, with a net financing buy of 96.88 million yuan after 4.436 billion yuan was repaid [1] - The total financing and securities lending balance for SMIC reached 14.204 billion yuan, with the financing balance at 14.169 billion yuan, accounting for 5.80% of the circulating market value, which is above the 90th percentile of the past year [1] - In terms of securities lending, SMIC repaid 142,500 shares and sold 27,900 shares, with a selling amount of 3.4054 million yuan, while the securities lending balance was 35.4253 million yuan, also above the 90th percentile of the past year [1] Company Performance - As of June 30, SMIC had 252,300 shareholders, a decrease of 2.20% from the previous period, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 2.26% to 8,223 shares [2] - For the first half of 2025, SMIC reported operating revenue of 32.348 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.14%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.301 billion yuan, up 39.76% year-on-year [2] Institutional Holdings - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten circulating shareholders of SMIC included several ETFs, with notable increases in holdings: - Huaxia SSE STAR 50 ETF held 95.7266 million shares, an increase of 3.3552 million shares [2] - E Fund SSE STAR 50 ETF held 73.8086 million shares, an increase of 8.3156 million shares [2] - Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited held 63.4993 million shares, an increase of 2.6329 million shares [2] - Huaxia SSE 50 ETF held 39.0046 million shares, an increase of 261,700 shares [2] - Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF held 35.4037 million shares, an increase of 284,300 shares [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent 25 basis points interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve marks the beginning of a global liquidity turning point, indicating a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy environment [3][6]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The Fed's rate cut is seen as a "preventive cut," with expectations of two more cuts within the year, leading to a decline in dollar asset yields and an influx of international capital into emerging markets, particularly benefiting A-shares [3][4]. - Historical data shows that since 2005, A-shares have only a 38.9% chance of short-term gains following Fed rate cuts, but this probability increases to 38.9% over a 90-day period, suggesting initial market volatility before a potential medium to long-term bullish trend [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Three main investment themes have emerged: 1. **Technology Growth (Semiconductors, AI Computing)**: Lower financing costs from rate cuts favor high R&D sectors, with foreign capital already increasing positions in leading firms like SMIC and North Huachuang [3][4]. 2. **Interest Rate Sensitive Sectors (Brokerage, Innovative Pharmaceuticals)**: Brokerages benefit from improved liquidity, while innovative pharmaceutical companies see reduced financing costs and enhanced valuation flexibility [3][4]. 3. **Core Consumer Assets**: High-dividend stocks like Moutai and Midea are becoming preferred choices for foreign investors due to stable earnings and high dividends, with historical data indicating a potential 46% increase in consumer stocks during rate cut cycles [4][5]. Group 3: Strategic Insights - The trend of foreign capital returning to China is confirmed, with active foreign investment showing net inflows, and major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley expressing bullish sentiments towards A-shares [5]. - The policy space for the Chinese central bank has opened up, allowing for potential future rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, which could lead to improved corporate financing conditions and profitability [5][6]. - A suggested strategy includes maintaining a 50% base position and a 30% flexible allocation, with specific buy and sell points based on market movements, emphasizing a focus on technology leaders and defensive sectors [5][6].

外围市场也带来分化影响。美股科技股大涨，尤其是英伟达带领芯片股发力，带动A股半导体板块逆势走强。中芯国际创历史新高，工业富联吸金超150 亿，说明科技主线韧性十足。不过罗素2000小盘股指数大涨，咱们的中小盘股却没跟上，这个分化值得关注。 技术面上，昨天沪指早盘冲到3899点，离3900点仅一步之遥，但午后跌破3870点支撑位，尾盘放量下跌。现在3800点成为关键多空分水岭，这个位置既是20 日均线所在，也是市场心理关口。守住与否将决定后续走势。 资金流向分化明显。昨天两市成交爆出3.13万亿，创年内第三高，但主力资金净流出328亿，北向资金也跑了45亿。有意思的是，半导体和机器人板块却合 计吸金超168亿，中微公司、闻泰科技等硬科技标的获得资金加仓，说明资金正在从高位股向有政策支撑的科技股转移。 老铁们，昨天这行情真是让人看不懂——美股道指纳指全都创了历史新高，咱们A股却集体跳水，沪指跌1.15%，创业板跌1.64%，超4200只个股下跌。作为 20年财经老记者，帮主我觉得有必要和大家捋一捋背后的逻辑。 先说消息面。美联储虽然降息25个基点，但明松暗紧，对明年降息预期比市场保守，这让资金产生犹豫。好在咱们央 ...

Group 1: Investment Trends - Net purchases of Meituan reached HKD 14.12 billion, Alibaba HKD 12.1 billion, Pop Mart HKD 12.07 billion, Xiaomi HKD 6.6 billion, Hong Kong Broadband HKD 4.27 billion, and UBTECH HKD 1.71 billion [1] - Net sales included HKD 11.65 billion for Hua Hong Semiconductor, HKD 4.18 billion for Tencent, and HKD 2.77 billion for SMIC [1] - Southbound funds have continuously net purchased Alibaba for 20 days, totaling HKD 561.0089 billion, and Meituan for 4 days, totaling HKD 49.0023 billion [1] Group 2: Stock Performance - Alibaba's stock decreased by 2.0% with a net purchase of HKD 3.15 billion [4] - SMIC's stock increased by 2.7% with a net sale of HKD 3.95 billion [4] - Tencent's stock decreased by 3.0% with a net sale of HKD 9.40 billion [4] - Meituan's stock increased by 0.3% with a net purchase of HKD 5.68 billion [4] - Xiaomi's stock decreased by 1.7% with a net purchase of HKD 2.80 billion [4] - Hong Kong Broadband's stock surged by 68.6% with a net purchase of HKD 4.28 billion [4] - Pop Mart's stock increased by 4.6% with a net purchase of HKD 7.43 billion [4] Group 3: Company Insights - Goldman Sachs raised Alibaba's cloud valuation from USD 36 to USD 43 per ADS, with an expected annual growth rate of 30% to 32% for fiscal year 2026 [5] - Alibaba's 12-month target price was increased from USD 163 to USD 179, and the Hong Kong target price from HKD 158 to HKD 174, maintaining a "Buy" rating [5] - Morgan Stanley noted a cautious market sentiment towards Pop Mart but believes in its strong demand driven by a growing customer base and a differentiated business model [5] - Xiaomi's chairman Lei Jun announced that the Xiaomi 17 series will feature significant upgrades to compete directly with the iPhone, with R&D investment increasing from RMB 100 billion to RMB 200 billion over the next five years [6]

Group 1 - The electronic sector is leading the market, with the electronic ETF (515260) experiencing a price surge of over 4.6% at one point, ultimately closing up 2.77%, reaching a new high since its listing [1] - The electronic ETF (515260) has attracted 248 million yuan in the past five days, indicating strong investor confidence in the sector's future [1] - Key stocks in the sector include Zhongwei Company, which rose over 11%, and other notable performers such as Wentai Technology and Ruixin Micro, which saw increases of 9.6% and 7.29% respectively [1] Group 2 - The electronic sector is benefiting from multiple positive developments, including Huawei's Full Connect Conference focusing on advancements in ICT, cloud computing, and AI, along with a three-year roadmap for Ascend chip development [2][3] - Domestic breakthroughs in semiconductor technology are highlighted, with Alibaba's self-developed AI chip performance comparable to Nvidia's H20, and Baidu utilizing its Kunlun P800 chip for AI model training [3] - The Meta Connect conference showcased the launch of AI-powered smart glasses, indicating significant growth potential in the AI/AR eyewear market [4] Group 3 - Main funds have heavily invested in the electronic sector, with a total of 21.8 billion yuan in net inflows on a single day, and 555 billion yuan over the past five days, maintaining the highest position among 31 primary industries [5] - Apple's recent product launch event is expected to create investment opportunities for its supply chain, with Apple-related stocks accounting for 43.34% of the electronic ETF (515260) as of the end of August [6] - The electronic industry is currently in an innovation phase, with expectations for breakthroughs in terminal innovation, performance release, and profit explosion, driven by the demand for AI computing power [6]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.35% to 26,544.85 points, while the Hang Seng Technology Index decreased by 0.99% to 6,271.22 points, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropped by 1.46% to 9,456.52 points. The total market turnover reached 413.31 billion HKD, the highest since April 8 of this year [2][3]. Individual Stock Performance - Alibaba's stock had a turnover of 33.704 billion HKD, closing down by 1.98% [6]. - Tencent Holdings recorded a turnover of 19.433 billion HKD, down by 2.95%, with the company repurchasing 839,000 shares on September 17 [4]. - Bubble Mart saw a rise of 4.62%, closing at 267.2 HKD per share, with a total turnover of 6.074 billion HKD [10]. - Semiconductor company SMIC increased by 2.66%, with a turnover of 17.235 billion HKD [4][14]. Sector Analysis - The financial sector experienced a broad decline, with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange dropping over 3% [4]. - The semiconductor and robotics industries showed resilience, with Huahong Semiconductor rising over 8% to reach a new high [4]. Company Insights - Morgan Stanley's report on Bubble Mart indicates a shift in market sentiment, suggesting that increased supply could be beneficial, similar to the Pokémon card market dynamics [12]. - SMIC's revenue growth is projected to be strong, with a year-on-year increase of 23.14% expected in the first half of 2025, despite increasing market competition [14]. - Kaisa Capital surged by 174.19% to 0.51 HKD per share, with a turnover of 11.4688 million HKD, following the announcement of plans to tokenize assets [16].

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.35% to 26,544.85 points, while the Hang Seng Technology Index decreased by 0.99% to 6,271.22 points, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropped by 1.46% to 9,456.52 points [2][3] - The total market turnover reached 413.31 billion HKD, marking the highest level since April 8 of this year [2] Individual Stock Performance - Alibaba's stock had a turnover of 33.704 billion HKD, closing down by 1.98% [4][6] - Tencent Holdings recorded a turnover of 19.433 billion HKD, down by 2.95%, with a recent buyback of 839,000 shares [4] - Semiconductor stocks, particularly Huahong Semiconductor, saw gains, with Huahong rising over 8% to reach a new high [3] Notable Stock Movements - Pop Mart experienced a significant increase, closing up by 4.62% at 267.2 HKD per share, with a turnover of 6.074 billion HKD [8] - SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation) rose by 2.66%, with a turnover of 17.235 billion HKD [4][11] Industry Insights - Morgan Stanley's report indicated a cautious sentiment towards Pop Mart, but they maintain a positive outlook, suggesting that increased supply could enhance customer experience and demand [10] - The global top ten foundry companies are projected to have a combined revenue of 41.718 billion HKD in Q2 2025, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 14.6% [11][13] - SMIC's gross margin improved by 8 percentage points year-on-year, with revenue growth of 23.14% expected in the first half of 2025 [13]

Market Overview - The main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets experienced a net outflow of 108.41 billion yuan, with the Sci-Tech Innovation Board seeing a net outflow of 6.95 billion yuan [1] - A total of 222 stocks saw net inflows, while 366 stocks experienced net outflows [1] Sci-Tech Innovation Board Performance - On the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, 175 stocks rose, with two stocks, Dekoli and Huafeng Technology, hitting the daily limit, while 408 stocks declined [1] - The top three stocks with the highest net inflows were Huafeng Technology (337 million yuan), Maiwei Biology (298 million yuan), and Zhongwei Company (220 million yuan) [1][2] Continuous Fund Flow Analysis - There are 39 stocks that have seen continuous net inflows for more than three trading days, with Hanwujing leading at 22 consecutive days of inflow [2] - Conversely, 162 stocks have experienced continuous net outflows, with Naike Equipment leading at 15 consecutive days of outflow [2] Top Fund Inflows - The top stocks by net inflow include: - Huafeng Technology: 337.30 million yuan, with a 20% increase [2] - Maiwei Biology: 298.07 million yuan, with a 13.21% increase [2] - Zhongwei Company: 219.55 million yuan, with an 11.43% increase [2] Notable Outflows - The stocks with the highest net outflows included: - Haiguang Information: 1.17 billion yuan, with a 0.46% increase [1] - Dongxin Co. and SMIC: 819 million yuan and 731 million yuan outflows, respectively [1]

Group 1 - The semiconductor cycle has emerged from the bottom and is showing signs of recovery due to the explosive development of AI technology and domestic consumption subsidies stimulating demand for device upgrades [1] - In Q2 2025, the top ten global foundries generated a total revenue of 41.718 billion, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 14.6% [1] - TSMC recorded a revenue of 30.24 billion in Q2 2025, with a global market share increase of 2.6 percentage points to 70.2%, while the other nine foundries experienced varying degrees of market share decline [1] Group 2 - The demand explosion for AI and HPC has shifted the focus of foundry competition from "advanced processes" to "advanced packaging," with CoWoS and SoIC becoming critical for AI chip shipments [2] - Chinese foundries continue to scale mature processes, overcoming previous inventory issues caused by a weak consumer electronics supply chain [2] - In H1 2025, revenue growth rates for major Chinese foundries were as follows: SMIC at 23.14%, Hua Hong at 19.09%, and JCET at 18.21% [2] Group 3 - SMIC added nearly 20,000 pieces of 12-inch standard logic monthly capacity in H1 2025, achieving a capacity utilization rate of 92.5% in Q2, an increase of 2.9 percentage points from Q1 [3] - SMIC's capital expenditure in Q2 2025 was 1.885 billion, with plans to maintain an annual addition of 50,000 pieces of 12-inch capacity [3] - The revenue boost for SMIC in H1 2025 was primarily driven by the computer and tablet, consumer electronics, and industrial and automotive sectors, with consumer electronics revenue increasing by 53.80% year-on-year [3]