证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 12 21 年 月 日 交通运输 关注元旦航旅出行预定数据与委内瑞拉油轮进展 周观点：航旅纵横大数据显示，截至 12 月 17 日，元旦假期国内、跨境航线 机票预订量同比分别增长 46%、18%；16 日，ICE 布油收 58.84 美元（盘中 最低 58.72 美元），为 5 月来首次。继续看好"扩内需"及"反内卷"下航空 板块中长期景气度，在油汇环境友好环境下航司盈利有望不断改善。基于周期 视角，在制裁趋严、OPEC+增产逐步反馈到出口的背景下，行业周期逻辑渐 明，可关注板块回调中的布局机会，重点关注招商轮船、中远海能 H/A。 行情回顾：本周交通运输板块行业指数上涨 2.04%，跑赢上证指数 2.01 个百 分点（上证指数上涨 0.03%）。从申万交通运输行业三级分类看，涨幅前三名 的板块分别为航空运输、跨境物流、公交，涨幅分别为 6.84%、3.10%、2.82%； 仅公路货运板块下跌，跌幅为-1.76%。 出行：航旅纵横大数据显示，截至 12 月 17 日，元旦假期国内、跨境航线机 票预订量同比分别增长 46%、18%。继续看好"扩内需 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping industry, particularly recommending stocks such as China Shipbuilding, China Power, and Sumec [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the launch of the first shipping industry index fund on December 19, 2025, and notes a continued increase in second-hand ship prices, with a 5-year-old VLCC price rising by $2 million to $120 million [4]. - Seasonal fluctuations are observed in freight rates, with oil and bulk carrier second-hand prices increasing. The report recommends stocks like COSCO Shipping and China Merchants Energy [4]. - The report anticipates a significant improvement in airline profitability due to supply constraints and increasing passenger demand, recommending stocks such as China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines [4]. Summary by Sections Shipping Industry - The second-hand ship price index increased by 0.38% to 194.32 points, with a recommendation for COSCO Shipping and China Merchants Energy [4]. - VLCC freight rates decreased by 11% to $101,623 per day, while Suezmax rates increased by 9% to $78,107 per day [4]. Airline Sector - The report indicates that the global aircraft manufacturing chain is facing unprecedented challenges, with an aging fleet and supply constraints expected to continue [4]. - Airlines are projected to experience significant profitability improvements, with recommendations for stocks such as China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines [4]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is entering a new phase of competition, with three potential scenarios outlined for industry performance [4]. - Recommended stocks include Shentong Express and Yunda Holdings, with a focus on companies benefiting from Southeast Asian e-commerce growth [4]. Rail and Road Transport - Rail freight volume and highway truck traffic are expected to maintain steady growth, with data showing a slight decrease in freight volume [4]. - The report suggests that traditional high-dividend investment themes and potential value management catalysts will be key investment lines through 2025 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for several key companies in the aviation and logistics sectors, including China Southern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and SF Express [2]. Core Insights - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from multiple catalysts, including the recovery of passenger demand and improved ticket pricing due to high load factors and regulatory support [4][6]. - The logistics and express delivery industry is experiencing a divergence in growth rates, with a focus on improving operational quality through policies aimed at reducing "involution" and the adoption of automation technologies [6][7]. Summary by Sections Aviation Sector - The report highlights the positive impact of the national strategy to expand domestic demand, which is expected to drive up airline stock prices. For instance, companies like China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines saw stock increases of 12.48% and 13.60%, respectively [4]. - Key metrics for airlines from December 15 to December 19 include average daily flights and aircraft utilization rates, with notable year-on-year increases in flight numbers for several airlines [4]. - The report emphasizes the long-term growth potential of the aviation sector, driven by a combination of recovering demand, regulatory support for pricing, and a gradual recovery in aircraft utilization rates [6]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is witnessing a mixed trend in volume and pricing, with November data showing a year-on-year increase in delivery volumes for some companies while others face declines [6]. - The report notes that the integration of Danbird Logistics into Shentong Express is expected to enhance scale and operational efficiency [6]. - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to improve profitability across the express delivery industry, with a focus on enhancing service quality and pricing strategies [6][7]. Infrastructure - The report suggests that the infrastructure sector, particularly highways, remains stable with consistent cash dividends and ongoing expansion projects [6]. - Data from December 8 to December 14 indicates a slight decline in freight traffic on highways and railways, but overall port throughput showed a year-on-year increase [6]. Shipping and Trade - The shipping sector is experiencing fluctuations in freight rates, with oil shipping showing strength while dry bulk rates are declining. The report suggests that geopolitical factors may reshape global shipping dynamics [7]. - The report recommends monitoring companies in the shipping sector for potential investment opportunities, particularly those positioned to benefit from seasonal demand increases [7].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley maintains an "overweight" rating for COSCO Shipping Energy H shares (01138), lowering the target price from HKD 13 to HKD 12, while keeping a "neutral" rating for COSCO Shipping Energy A shares (600026.SH) with a target price reduction from RMB 14 to RMB 13 [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - Despite concerns that current shipping disruptions may gradually ease, it is expected that oil tanker profitability will remain resilient next year, suggesting investors should buy COSCO Shipping Energy H shares on dips [1] - Industry data indicates that global oil tanker capacity and demand are projected to grow by 2.2% and 1% year-on-year, respectively, but the actual supply-demand relationship remains tight [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Oil tanker demand is expected to increase by 0.9% year-on-year, while supply is projected to grow by only 0.7%, with the supply-demand situation for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) being particularly tight [1] - Stable OPEC production is expected to help maintain this tight supply-demand balance [1] Group 3: Structural Supply Constraints - Over 20% of the global oil tanker fleet is over 20 years old, with many vessels concentrated in the "shadow fleet," limiting their ability to participate in compliant trade [1] - Geopolitical tensions have further increased transportation demand, with approximately 18% to 20% of the global fleet involved in non-compliant transportation due to expanded sanctions on vessels related to Russia, Iran, and Venezuela [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating for COSCO Shipping Energy (H-shares) with a target price reduced from HKD 13 to HKD 12, while keeping a "Neutral" rating for its A-shares with a target price lowered from RMB 14 to RMB 13, indicating a cautious outlook despite expected resilience in oil tanker profitability next year [1] Industry Summary - Global oil tanker capacity and demand are projected to grow by 2.2% and 1% year-on-year, respectively, but the actual supply-demand relationship remains tight [1] - Oil tanker demand is expected to increase by 0.9% year-on-year, while supply is anticipated to grow by only 0.7%, with a particularly tight situation for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) [1] - OPEC's stable production is expected to help maintain the current supply-demand dynamics [1] Structural Supply Constraints - Over 20% of the global oil tanker fleet is over 20 years old, with many vessels concentrated in the "shadow fleet," limiting their ability to participate in compliant trade [1] - Geopolitical tensions have further increased transportation demand, with approximately 18% to 20% of the global fleet involved in non-compliant transportation due to sanctions on vessels related to Russia, Iran, and Venezuela [1]

Group 1: Airline Industry - Goldman Sachs forecasts that international demand will rise while supply constraints persist, leading to an expected return on equity (ROE) of 22% for airlines by 2027, surpassing the industry cycle average [1] - Despite risks associated with Japan in the first half of the year, the outlook for airline stocks remains positive, with further upward potential for ticket prices [1] - Preferred stocks include China National Aviation Holding (601111) H-shares (00753) and China Eastern Airlines (600115) A-shares (600115.SH) [1] Group 2: Container Shipping - The firm adopts a more cautious stance on container shipping due to supply recovery, which is expected to compress industry profit margins [1] - New ship orders this year have exceeded expectations, resulting in an order-to-existing capacity ratio of 33% [1] - Potential reopening of the Red Sea may pose additional downside risks, potentially releasing about 10% of effective capacity, which could lead to China COSCO Shipping Holdings (601919) (01919, 601919.SH) entering a cash consumption state [1] Group 3: Oil Tankers - The outlook for oil tankers remains optimistic, with expectations of rising spot freight rates during the sustained upward cycle in 2026 [1] - The oil reserve process in China may take up to a year, longer than the market's three-month expectation, while effective capacity is predicted to grow by only 1% [1] - China COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation (600026) (01138, 600026.SH) is expected to benefit due to its significant exposure to oil tankers and the Chinese import market [1] Group 4: Stock Ratings and Target Prices - China National Aviation (00753): Buy, target price raised from 7.3 to 8.2 HKD [2] - China Eastern Airlines (00670): Buy, target price raised from 3.7 to 5.1 HKD [2] - China Southern Airlines (01055): Buy, target price raised from 4.6 to 5.8 HKD [2] - China COSCO Shipping Energy (01138): Buy, target price raised from 8.8 to 10.8 HKD [2] - China COSCO Shipping Ports (01199): Buy, target price raised from 6 to 6.8 HKD [2] - China Merchants Port (00144): Neutral, target price raised from 14.2 to 15.7 HKD [2] - China COSCO Shipping Holdings (01919): Neutral to Sell, target price lowered from 12.5 to 10.4 HKD [2] - Meilan Airport (00357): Sell, target price raised from 7.6 to 8.4 HKD [2]

摩根大通发表报告，维持中远海能H股"增持"评级，目标价由13港元降至12港元，对中远海能A股维 持"中性"评级，目标价由14元降至13元。该行认为，虽然市场忧虑现有的航运干扰因素可能逐步消退， 但仍预期明年原油油轮的盈利将保持韧性；建议趁低位买入中远海能H股。该行指，虽然行业数据估算 明年全球油轮运力及需求分别按年增长2.2%及1%，但实际上供应平衡依然紧张。其中，原油油轮需求 预计按年增长0.9%，但供应仅增0.7%，尤其超大型油轮(VLCC)供需更为紧张；同时，OPEC产量稳定 亦令相关局势维持。 ...

Group 1: Airline Industry - Goldman Sachs forecasts that international demand will rise while supply constraints persist, leading to an expected return on equity (ROE) of 22% for airlines by 2027, surpassing the industry cycle average [1] - Despite risks associated with Japan in the first half of the year, the outlook for airline stocks remains positive, with expectations for further increases in ticket prices; preferred stocks include Air China H-shares and China Eastern Airlines A-shares [1] Group 2: Container Shipping - The recovery in supply has led Goldman Sachs to adopt a more cautious stance on container shipping, predicting a compression in industry profit margins [1] - New ship orders this year have exceeded expectations, resulting in an order-to-existing capacity ratio of 33% [1] - Potential reopening of the Red Sea may pose additional downside risks, potentially releasing about 10% of effective capacity, which could lead to cash consumption issues for COSCO Shipping Holdings [1] Group 3: Oil Tankers - Goldman Sachs maintains an optimistic outlook for oil tankers, expecting spot freight rates to rise further during the ongoing upward cycle in 2026 [1] - The process of China's oil reserve buildup may take up to a year, longer than the market's expectation of three months, while effective capacity is predicted to grow by only 1% [1] - COSCO Shipping Energy is expected to benefit due to its significant exposure to oil tankers and the Chinese import market [1]

Group 1 - The article presents the top 20 stocks in the S&P China A-Share Dividend Opportunity Index (CSPSADRP) based on their daily and year-to-date performance as of December 17, 2025 [1][4] - The stock with the highest daily increase is Xue Ri Co., Ltd. (002083.SZ) with a daily rise of 5.88% and a year-to-date increase of 138.85% [1][4] - Zhongyuan Marine Energy (600026.SH) and China National Materials (600970.SH) follow with daily increases of 5.48% and 4.59%, respectively, and year-to-date increases of 5.08% and 8.67% [1][4] Group 2 - The dividend yields for the top stocks range from 1.34% to 8.38%, with Nanshan Aluminum (600219.SH) offering the highest yield at 8.38% [1][4] - Other notable stocks include Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ) with a year-to-date increase of 80.26% and a dividend yield of 3.00%, and Action Education (605098.SH) with a year-to-date increase of 26.14% and a yield of 5.55% [1][4] - The data is sourced from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and reflects the performance as of December 17, 2025 [1][4]

从资金流向上来看，当日航运港口板块主力资金净流入2412.21万元，游资资金净流出2.82亿元，散户资 金净流入2.58亿元。航运港口板块个股资金流向见下表： 证券之星消息，12月17日航运港口板块较上一交易日上涨0.88%，中远海能领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3870.28，上涨1.19%。深证成指报收于13224.51，上涨2.4%。航运港口板块个股涨跌见下表： 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。 ...