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大摩730闭门会核心观点纪要:多行业反内卷动态与投资逻辑解析
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-07-30 14:42
快递行业未进入工信部重点反内卷名单,优先级较低。头部企业仍保持盈利,反内卷迫切性不足;内卷 本质是产能过剩与落后产能无法出清,导致低水平价格竞争。 一、快递行业:反内卷优先级低,整合为长期主线 现状与核心矛盾 解决路径与挑战 兼并整合是最优解,但面临企业意愿低、执行难度大、反垄断审查严格等障碍。价格调整更可能是区域 性、短期行为,全国性调价或份额重构概率低。 情境推演 基准情境(概率较高):行业整合持续,区域性小幅调价延缓竞争烈度,偏好份额与成本领先的中通、 圆通; 悲观情境:全行业大幅涨价短期利好盈利薄的申通、韵达,但中长期将刺激扩产,加剧产能过剩; 乐观情境:监管推动整合,大小企业估值均提升,资金实力强的主导方长期空间更大。 投资者疑问 认可航空国企执行力强于快递,但核心担忧监管是否真正推动反内卷及抗通缩政策落地。 三、石化行业:炼油产能出清利好国企,化工需警惕新增产能 投资者态度 此前因内卷长期低配,近期虽不再低配但超配极少。认可中通自由现金流回报率(高单位数)的短期估 值修复空间,但整体情绪偏谨慎,反对 "运动式涨价" 损害行业长期发展。 二、航空行业:亏损压力下反内卷迫切性凸显,需监管强协调 行业困 ...
世界500强,这些能源企业利润如何
Zhong Guo Dian Li Bao· 2025-07-30 14:40
Group 1 - The core point of the article is the release of the Fortune Global 500 list, which shows that the revenue threshold for inclusion has increased from $32.1 billion to $32.2 billion, with 130 Chinese companies making the list, including several energy firms [1] - The top three Chinese companies on the list are State Grid, China National Petroleum, and Sinopec, ranking 3rd, 5th, and 6th respectively [1] - The list is based primarily on operating revenue, and it also provides insights into profits and assets, making it a key benchmark for comparing large global enterprises [1] Group 2 - Among the 21 energy companies analyzed, 19 reported profits while 2 incurred losses [1] - China National Petroleum leads the energy sector with a profit of $22.424 billion, followed by China National Offshore Oil with $14.773 billion, and State Grid with $10.045 billion [2] - Other notable energy companies include Sinopec with a profit of $8.036 billion and China Huadian Corporation with $2.371 billion [3]
中国石化收盘上涨1.86%,滚动市盈率16.10倍,总市值7286.84亿元
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-30 10:48
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that Sinopec's stock closed at 6.01 yuan, with a PE ratio of 16.10 times, and a total market capitalization of 728.68 billion yuan [1] - Sinopec ranks 11th in the oil industry based on PE ratio, with the industry average at 13.24 times and the median at 31.00 times [1] - As of the first quarter of 2025, 77 institutions hold shares in Sinopec, with a total holding of 16.77 million shares valued at 946 million yuan [1] Group 2 - Sinopec's main business includes oil and gas exploration, development, production, and refining, as well as chemical manufacturing and marketing [1] - The latest financial results for the first quarter of 2025 show revenue of 735.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.91%, and a net profit of 13.26 billion yuan, down 27.60% year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 15.66% [1] - The PE ratio of Sinopec is compared to other companies in the industry, with the average PE at 13.24 times and the median at 31.00 times, indicating a competitive position within the sector [2]
2025《财富》世界500强:中国130家上榜总收入降3%
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-30 10:26
Group 1 - The 2025 Fortune Global 500 list reveals Walmart as the largest company for the twelfth consecutive year, followed by Amazon, with Chinese state-owned companies ranking third, fourth, and fifth [1] - The total revenue of the Global 500 companies is approximately $41.7 trillion, exceeding one-third of the global GDP, and showing a year-on-year growth of about 1.8% [1] - The threshold for inclusion in the list increased from $32.1 billion to $32.2 billion [1] Group 2 - Companies from the US, China, and Japan account for 62% of the total number of companies on the list, with revenue and profit shares exceeding 67% and 69% respectively [1] - China has 130 companies on the list, three fewer than last year, with a total revenue of $10.7 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 3% [1] - There are 21 Chinese energy and chemical companies listed, with a total of 49 companies in the global oil and chemical industry represented [1] Group 3 - The overall profit of the 500 companies continues to grow, totaling approximately $2.98 trillion, marking the second-highest profit in history [1] - Saudi Aramco remains the most profitable company despite a year-on-year profit decline of about 13%, with profits around $105 billion [1] - Major oil and gas companies like ExxonMobil and China National Petroleum are included in the top 50 most profitable companies [1]
石油石化行业7月30日资金流向日报
Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.17% on July 30, with 14 out of the 28 sectors experiencing gains, led by the steel and oil & petrochemical industries, which increased by 2.05% and 1.84% respectively [1] - The banking sector saw the largest net inflow of funds, totaling 1.136 billion yuan, while the media sector followed with a net inflow of 1.029 billion yuan and a daily increase of 0.99% [1] Sector Performance - The oil & petrochemical sector experienced a rise of 1.84%, with a total net inflow of 35.4751 million yuan. Out of 47 stocks in this sector, 29 rose, including one that hit the daily limit, while 14 declined [2] - The leading stock in terms of net inflow within the oil & petrochemical sector was China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), which saw an inflow of 102.41 million yuan. Other notable stocks included Tongyuan Petroleum and Qianeng Huanxin, with inflows of 85.1104 million yuan and 66.1585 million yuan respectively [2] Fund Flow Analysis - A total of 24 sectors experienced net outflows, with the computer sector leading with a net outflow of 10.472 billion yuan, followed by the electronics sector with an outflow of 8.271 billion yuan [1] - In the oil & petrochemical sector, 10 stocks experienced net outflows exceeding 10 million yuan, with Guanghui Energy, Haiyou Development, and Tongkun Co. leading the outflows at 77.6510 million yuan, 39.1823 million yuan, and 31.4302 million yuan respectively [2][3]
最新世界500强:中石油、中石化、中海油、恒力、荣盛、盛虹······
Zhong Guo Hua Gong Bao· 2025-07-30 09:31
Group 1 - Walmart has been ranked as the largest company in the world for the twelfth consecutive year, followed by Amazon and China's State Grid Corporation [1] - The total revenue of the Fortune Global 500 companies for 2024 is approximately $41.7 trillion, which is over one-third of the global GDP, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 1.8% [1] - The threshold for inclusion in the list has increased from $32.1 billion to $32.2 billion [1] Group 2 - China has 130 companies on the list, a decrease of three from the previous year, with a total revenue of $10.7 trillion, down 3% year-on-year [1] - The energy and chemical sector in China has 21 companies listed, with notable rankings including China National Petroleum Corporation at 5th and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation at 6th [1] Group 3 - The global oil and chemical industry has 49 companies on the list, with 9 in the chemicals sector, marking a decline of 2 companies from the previous year [2][3] - Saudi Aramco remains the most profitable company with a profit of approximately $105 billion, despite a year-on-year decline of about 13% [4] - Major oil and gas companies such as ExxonMobil, China National Petroleum, Chevron, Shell, and TotalEnergies are among the top 50 most profitable companies [4]
可燃冰概念涨3.07%,主力资金净流入7股
截至7月30日收盘,可燃冰概念上涨3.07%,位居概念板块涨幅第1,板块内,10股上涨,潜能恒信、新 锦动力、神开股份等涨幅居前,分别上涨11.82%、8.07%、4.76%。 资金面上看,今日可燃冰概念板块获主力资金净流入0.21亿元,其中,7股获主力资金净流入,净流入 资金居首的是潜能恒信,今日主力资金净流入6615.85万元,净流入资金居前的还有神开股份、海默科 技、新锦动力等,主力资金分别净流入4791.59万元、3886.83万元、2255.01万元。 资金流入比率方面,海默科技、潜能恒信、神开股份等流入比率居前,主力资金净流入率分别为 10.08%、9.29%、5.00%。(数据宝) 可燃冰概念资金流入榜 今日涨跌幅居前的概念板块 | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅(%) | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 可燃冰 | 3.07 | 电子身份证 | -2.82 | | 青蒿素 | 2.33 | 数字货币 | -2.81 | | 乳业 | 1.84 | 移动支付 | -2.56 | | 玉米 | 1.38 | 兵装重组概念 | -2.46 | | 社区团 ...
炼化及贸易板块7月30日涨1.87%,宝利国际领涨,主力资金净流出1.6亿元
证券之星消息,7月30日炼化及贸易板块较上一交易日上涨1.87%,宝利国际领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3615.72,上涨0.17%。深证成指报收于11203.03,下跌0.77%。炼化及贸易板块个股涨跌见下表: | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300135 | 宝利国际 | 4.57 | 6.28% | 110.25万 | | 4.97亿 | | 002221 | 东华能源 | 10.35 | 4.86% | 48.71万 | | 4.98亿 | | 600346 | 恒力石化 | 16.10 | 3.67% | 35.82万 | | 5.77亿 | | 601233 | 桐昆股份 | 12.82 | 3.47% | 1 61.77万 | | 7.90亿 | | 002493 | 荣盛石化 | 9.59 | 3.12% | 52.44万 | | 5.04亿 | | 600028 | 中国石化 | 6.01 | 1.86% | 156.05万 | | 9.36亿 | ...
油气ETF(159697)涨超1%,俄罗斯全面禁止出口汽油
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-30 05:50
截至2025年7月30日 13:30,国证石油天然气指数(399439)强势上涨1.27%,成分股潜能恒信(300191)上涨 5.17%,东华能源(002221)上涨4.36%,东方环宇(603706)上涨3.37%,中国石化(600028),海默科技 (300084)等个股跟涨。油气ETF(159697)上涨1.27%,最新价报1.04元。 数据显示,截至2025年6月30日,国证石油天然气指数(399439)前十大权重股分别为中国石油(601857)、 中国石化(600028)、中国海油(600938)、广汇能源(600256)、杰瑞股份(002353)、招商轮船(601872)、新 奥股份(600803)、中远海能(600026)、海油工程(600583)、招商南油(601975),前十大权重股合计占比 65.74%。 油气ETF(159697),场外联接A:019827;联接C:019828;联接I:022861。 以上内容与数据,与有连云立场无关,不构成投资建议。据此操作,风险自担。 消息面上,因需求旺盛,俄罗斯到8月31日之前禁止生产商出口汽油。俄政府称,这一举措旨在在季节 性需求旺盛的时期保持 ...
金十图示:2025年07月30日(周三)富时中国A50指数成分股午盘收盘行情一览:银行板块、电力股、周期股走强
news flash· 2025-07-30 03:37
金十图示:2025年07月30日(周三)富时中国A50指数成分股午盘收盘行情一览:银行板块、电力股、周期股走强 光大银行 2422.51亿市值 3.94亿成交额 4.10 +0.05(+1.23%) 保险 中国太保 中国人保 中国平安 4 3781.15亿市值 3748.09亿市值 11122.81亿市值 10.91亿成交额 37.49亿成交额 5.18亿成交额 8.55 38.96 61.08 +0.68(+1.78%) +1.59(+2.67%) -0.01(-0.12%) 酿酒行业 贵州茅台 山西汾酒 五粮液 18230.57亿市值 2262.55亿市值 4840.75亿市值 29.38亿成交额 9.14亿成交额 14.87亿成交额 1451.25 185.46 124.71 +12.25(+0.85%) +2.43(+1.33%) +1.19(+0.96%) 米含体 北方华创 寒武纪-U HACO 2918.16亿市值 3291.96亿市值 2546.76亿市值 19.92亿成交额 12.06亿成交额 25.70亿成交额 352.93 697.54 141.63 +8.14(+2.36%) -13.2 ...