Investment Rating - The investment rating for the aviation transportation industry is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The industry has maintained a high passenger load factor since the beginning of 2025, with a low growth rate in domestic capacity and a focus on increasing international routes. The net growth rate of airline fleets is below 3%, indicating a tight supply situation. The passenger load factor has improved compared to the same period last year and 2019, particularly in domestic routes. Domestic turnover has shown steady growth, while international turnover has significantly recovered to levels close to 2019 [13][14] - During the summer travel season, the industry experienced a high passenger load factor, and the decline in ticket prices has narrowed. This is expected to lead to a significant improvement in airlines' unit revenue. Additionally, the implementation of measures to curb "involution" and the "Self-Regulation Convention" by the China Air Transport Association is anticipated to reduce malicious price competition, potentially leading to a recovery in ticket prices and further boosting airlines' unit revenue [3][14] - The average ticket price in China for 2025 has been 864 yuan, down 8.8% year-on-year. The average ticket prices during the summer travel season in July and August were down 8.8% and 7.3% year-on-year, respectively, with a narrowing decline in August compared to the previous month [4][30] Summary by Sections 1. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for airlines, particularly focusing on Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Air China, Spring Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines [3][14] 2. Capacity Growth and Passenger Load Factor - The industry has seen a high passenger load factor with a slowdown in capacity growth. In July 2025, the industry’s ASK and RPK increased by 5.5% and 6.1% year-on-year, respectively, with a passenger load factor of 84.5%, up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [18][22] 3. Ticket Prices - The decline in ticket prices has narrowed, with the average ticket price in September showing a year-on-year decrease of 6.2%. The average ticket price for the first half of September was down 3.8% year-on-year [4][30] 4. Fuel Prices and Exchange Rates - The average price of aviation fuel in Q3 decreased by 11.2% year-on-year, with the domestic aviation fuel price in September dropping to 5545 yuan per ton, down 7.6% year-on-year. The exchange rate of the RMB has appreciated since the beginning of 2025 [5][42]

申万宏源指出，8月迎来暑运旺季高峰，航空市场运力运量稳步增长。继续看好航空板块，供给逻辑确 定性强，预计未来3-5年行业机队供给增速趋缓，需求端具备弹性，客运量和客座率持续增长均已在相 对高位，可关注后续民航"反内卷"下票价回暖信号及趋势。同时，在外部油汇变化配合下，航空公司能 够释放较大业绩提升空间。 航空股继续走高，截至发稿，中国国航（601111）(00753)涨4.99%，报5.68港元；南方航空（600029） (01055)涨3.88%，报4.02港元；东方航空(00670)涨2.29%，报3.13港元。 消息面上，据央视网报道，2025年国庆中秋假期合并，10月1日至10月8日放假八天，今年假期旅游热度 高涨。据航旅纵横数据，截至9月13日，今年中秋国庆假期国内航线机票预订量超452万张，日均机票预 订量较去年同期增长超25%。截至9月13日，今年中秋国庆假期的出入境航线机票预订量已超129万张， 日均机票预订量比去年同期增长约14%。 ...

港股航空板块午后持续拉升，中国南方航空股份涨超6%，中国国航涨超5%，中国东方航空股份涨超 3%。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，申万宏源发布研报称，8月迎来暑运旺季高峰，航空市场运力运量稳步增长。继续 看好航空板块，供给逻辑确定性强，预计未来3-5 年行业机队供给增速趋缓，需求端具备弹性，客运量 和客座率持续增长均已在相对高位，可关注后续民航"反内卷"下票价回暖信号及趋势。同时，在外部油 汇变化配合下，航空公司能够释放较大业绩提升空间，推荐中国国航(601111.SH)、华夏航空 (002928.SZ)、春秋航空(601021.SH)、吉祥航空(603885.SH)、国泰航空(00293)、南方航空(600029.SH)、 中国东航(600115.SH)。 申万宏源主要观点如下： 暑运后半段进入旺季高峰，8月民航运力运量均同比增长 根据航班管家数据，8月民航旅客运输量约7508万人次，同比24年增长3.0%;民航国内运力同比24年增长 1.3%，国内客流量同比24年增长2.2%。8月国际客运航班约6.1万班次，恢复至19年同期的88.6%，中国 大陆赴日、韩、香港航班量排列前三。8月民航日均飞机利用率为8.9小时，环比+0.3%，同比+0.2%。 根据航班管家数据，8月宽体机日均利用率为10.5小时，窄体机为8.9 ...

9月17日，南方航空盘中上涨2.15%，截至10:30，报6.18元/股，成交3.40亿元，换手率0.44%，总市值 1119.87亿元。 分红方面，南方航空A股上市后累计派现66.29亿元。近三年，累计派现0.00元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年6月30日，南方航空十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第四大流 通股东，持股5.82亿股，相比上期减少264.86万股。华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF（510300）位居第九大流通股 东，持股9631.78万股，相比上期增加798.68万股。易方达沪深300ETF（510310）位居第十大流通股 东，持股6847.02万股，相比上期增加665.94万股。 责任编辑：小浪快报 资料显示，中国南方航空股份有限公司位于广东省广州市白云区齐心路68号中国南方航空大厦，成立日 期1995年3月25日，上市日期2003年7月25日，公司主营业务涉及国内和经批准的国际、地区航空客、 货、邮、行李运输业务,通用航空业务等。主营业务收入构成为：服务86.42%，货运及邮运10.52%，其 他(补充)3.06%。 南方航空所属申万行业为：交通运输-航空机场-航空运输。所属概念板块包括 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aviation sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry compared to the overall market performance [7]. Core Insights - The aviation industry is experiencing steady growth in capacity and passenger volume, with August data showing a year-on-year increase in domestic passenger transport volume by 3.0% and domestic capacity by 1.3% compared to 2024 [3][4]. - The report highlights that airlines are increasing capacity to meet the demand during the peak summer travel season, with a notable rise in passenger turnover and load factors across major airlines [4]. - The analysis suggests that the supply-demand balance in the domestic market is improving, with significant growth in capacity and volume for airlines like Spring Airlines and China Eastern Airlines [4]. Summary by Sections August Data Overview - In August, the average daily aircraft utilization rate was 8.9 hours, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 0.2% [4]. - Major airlines reported varying year-on-year changes in capacity (ASK) and passenger turnover (RPK), with Spring Airlines leading in growth [4][5]. Domestic Market Performance - The domestic market shows a balanced growth in supply and demand, with significant increases in capacity and volume for Spring Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines [4]. - Year-on-year changes in ASK and RPK for major airlines indicate a mixed performance, with some airlines like Spring Airlines showing strong growth [5]. International Market Performance - Airlines are significantly increasing international capacity, with several airlines surpassing pre-pandemic levels in terms of capacity and passenger turnover [4]. - The report provides detailed year-on-year comparisons for international operations, highlighting the recovery trajectory of major airlines [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a focus on airlines such as China National Aviation, Spring Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines, citing strong supply logic and expected growth in passenger volume and load factors [4][7]. - The analysis anticipates a gradual slowdown in fleet supply growth over the next 3-5 years, with resilient demand expected to support the sector [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the aviation industry, indicating an expectation of outperforming the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The aviation industry shows steady growth in supply and demand as of August 2025, with ticket prices performing slightly better than in July. The report highlights a recent recovery in both volume and pricing [1]. - Domestic demand remains resilient, supported by internal growth and ongoing recovery in international routes. Supply constraints continue to be a factor, while falling oil prices are expected to reduce costs [7]. - The report emphasizes the potential for investment in leading companies within the industry, particularly focusing on low-cost carriers and those with strong operational efficiencies [7]. Summary by Sections Airline Data Analysis - In August, the overall ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) growth year-on-year was led by Spring Airlines (12.0%), followed by Eastern Airlines (6.8%), Southern Airlines (6.4%), Air China (2.3%), and Juneyao Airlines (-2.7%). RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) growth was similarly led by Spring Airlines (12.2%) [1]. - Cumulative data from January to August shows Spring Airlines leading in ASK growth (10.0%) and Eastern Airlines leading in RPK growth (11.3%) [1]. - Domestic routes in August saw Spring Airlines with an ASK growth of 9.1% and RPK growth of 9.6%, while Air China experienced a decline in both metrics [1]. - International routes showed significant growth for Spring Airlines (ASK +27.2%, RPK +26.3%) and a strong performance from Juneyao Airlines [2]. Load Factor and Fleet Size - The load factor in August was highest for Spring Airlines at 93.9%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.2 percentage points. The cumulative load factor from January to August for Spring Airlines was 91.2%, reflecting a slight decline [3]. - The total fleet size of the five listed airlines increased by 12 aircraft in August, with a year-on-year growth of 3.6% [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for investment in the aviation sector, particularly for companies like Huaxia Airlines, which is expected to reach a sustainable operational turning point, and Spring Airlines, which is leveraging its low-cost competitive advantage [7]. - The report anticipates a recovery in international routes, with companies like Juneyao Airlines expected to benefit from efficient operations of wide-body aircraft [7].

Core Insights - The aviation and airport sector experienced a rise of 1.24% on September 16, with HNA Holding leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3861.87, up 0.04%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13063.97, up 0.45% [1] Stock Performance - HNA Holding (600221) closed at 1.69, with a gain of 4.32% and a trading volume of 10.23 million shares, amounting to a turnover of 1.702 billion yuan [1] - Huaxia Airlines (002928) closed at 9.80, up 3.92%, with a trading volume of 211,400 shares and a turnover of 204 million yuan [1] - Spring Airlines (601021) closed at 53.50, gaining 1.98% with a trading volume of 74,400 shares and a turnover of 397 million yuan [1] - China National Airlines (601111) closed at 7.92, up 1.67%, with a trading volume of 714,600 shares and a turnover of 564 million yuan [1] - China Eastern Airlines (600115) closed at 4.02, gaining 1.01% with a trading volume of 2.1582 million shares and a turnover of 866 million yuan [1] - Other notable performances include: - Xiamen Airlines (600897) down 0.07% to 14.72 [1] - Shanghai Airport (600009) down 0.06% to 32.06 [1] Capital Flow - The aviation and airport sector saw a net outflow of 271 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 178 million yuan [2] - HNA Holding experienced a net inflow of 79.14 million yuan from institutional investors, despite a net outflow from retail investors [2] - Spring Airlines had a net inflow of 7.38 million yuan from institutional investors, with retail investors contributing positively [2] - China National Airlines faced a net outflow of 4.23 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a significant net outflow [2] - Xiamen Airport saw a net outflow of 1.34 million yuan from institutional investors, but retail investors contributed positively [2]

Core Viewpoint - The aviation stocks have risen in the afternoon trading session, driven by increased demand for domestic and international flights during the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday periods [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - China National Aviation (601111) rose by 4.82% to HKD 5.44 [1] - Eastern Airlines (00670) increased by 3.74% to HKD 3.05 [1] - Southern Airlines (600029) gained 2.65% to HKD 3.88 [1] Group 2: Ticket Booking Trends - As of September 8, domestic flight ticket bookings for the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays exceeded 3.26 million, with a daily average increase of over 26% compared to the same period last year [1] - International flight ticket bookings surpassed 1.16 million, with a daily average increase of approximately 15% year-on-year [1] Group 3: Market Insights - According to Guotai Junan Securities, significant activities in early September have led to a rapid recovery in market volume and pricing, particularly in Beijing, with active business travel demand [1] - Anticipated major meetings in October are expected to shift business travel demand forward, supporting continued positive trends in volume and pricing through mid to late September [1] - Forecasts suggest that airline profitability may continue to grow year-on-year in Q3 2025, despite potential price wars in Q4 2024 leading to lower ticket prices [1] - The industry is expected to significantly reduce losses and potentially turn profitable for the year, driven by a recovery in business travel demand and a slowdown in fleet growth [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aviation transportation industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The aviation sector is expected to see a bottoming out of its economic cycle, with potential improvements in demand and pricing as the supply growth remains low [5][8] - Despite a decline in ticket prices during the peak summer season, there are signs of recovery in business travel demand, which may lead to better pricing in the near future [5][8] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - China National Aviation (601111 CH): Buy, Target Price: 9.25 CNY [4] - China Eastern Airlines (600115 CH): Buy, Target Price: 4.80 CNY [4] - China Southern Airlines (600029 CH): Buy, Target Price: 7.35 CNY [4] - Spring Airlines (601021 CH): Buy, Target Price: 67.80 CNY [4] - 吉祥航空 (603885 CH): Buy, Target Price: 16.25 CNY [4] - 华夏航空 (002928 CH): Buy, Target Price: 13.65 CNY [4] - Cathay Pacific (293 HK): Buy, Target Price: 13.20 HKD [4] Industry Performance - In August, the three major airlines and Spring Airlines saw a 5.0% increase in available seat kilometers (ASK) and a 5.8% increase in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), leading to an overall passenger load factor increase of 0.6 percentage points to 86.8% [5][11] - Domestic ticket prices showed a year-on-year decline of 6.5% during the peak summer season, but there was a 2.5% increase in ticket prices in early September [5][8] Company-Specific Insights - China National Aviation reported a revenue of 80.757 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a 1.6% increase year-on-year, with a net loss of 1.806 billion CNY, narrowing by 35.1% [23] - China Eastern Airlines achieved a revenue of 66.822 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a 4.1% increase year-on-year, with a net loss of 1.592 billion CNY, narrowing by 42.5% [23] - China Southern Airlines reported a revenue of 86.291 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a 1.8% increase year-on-year, with a net loss of 1.533 billion CNY, which is a 24.8% increase in loss year-on-year [24] - Spring Airlines reported a revenue of 10.304 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a 4.3% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.169 billion CNY, a 14.1% decrease year-on-year [24] - 吉祥航空 reported a revenue of 11.067 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a 1.0% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 0.505 billion CNY, a 3.3% increase year-on-year [24] - 华夏航空 reported a revenue of 3.610 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a 12.4% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 0.251 billion CNY, an increase of 859.0% year-on-year [24] - Cathay Pacific reported a revenue of 54.309 billion HKD in the first half of 2025, a 9.5% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.651 billion HKD, a 1.1% increase year-on-year [24]