中信证券研报称，结合中央经济工作会议和人民银行近期表述看，2026年利率总量政策有望温和，预计 政策利率10bps幅度调降或在1~2次。对于银行定价而言，负债端中长期定存集中到期，有助于成本控 制；资产端LPR调整降频叠加终端利率下行放缓，收益率下行可控。我们预计，2026年银行业净息差降 幅收窄至4bps左右，为2022年以来首次年度息差降幅在低个位数水平。受益于此，上市银行全年营业收 入和归母净利润同比增速或分别改善至3.3%/2.8%左右，业绩稳定改善为板块稳定回报奠定扎实基础。 ...

Core Viewpoint - As of December 2025, SpaceX has successfully launched 3,095 Starlink satellites into orbit, indicating a significant advancement in commercial space endeavors and the potential for breakthroughs in launch capacity and cost reduction [1] Industry Developments - Domestic development of a recoverable medium-sized launch vehicle comparable to Falcon 9 is anticipated, which will help overcome current capacity bottlenecks [1] - The launch cost is expected to decrease significantly, accelerating the realization of markets related to satellites, terminals, and computing power [1] Market Opportunities - The commercial space sector is entering a new era, driven by the mass launch phases of China StarNet and the G60 Qianfan constellation, along with the operationalization of the Hainan commercial launch site and commercial launch vehicles [1] - The trend towards high capacity and low cost is set to unlock a trillion-dollar market, presenting substantial growth opportunities for the related industry chain [1] Investment Focus - Current high-potential investment directions include space computing power and recoverable rockets, while low Earth orbit communication satellite networks are the first segments with fundamental logic and order support [1]

中信证券研报称，推动人民币升值的因素逐渐增多，市场关注度也开始升温，投资者要逐步适应在一个 人民币持续升值的环境下去做资产配置。从过去20年间7轮人民币升值周期来看，汇率并不是主导行业 配置的决定性因素。然而，部分行业在持续升值预期形成的初期确实会有更好表现，市场可能会复制这 样的肌肉记忆，同时从成本收入分析来看，约19%的行业会因为升值带来利润率提升，这些行业也会逐 步被投资者重视起来。此外，为抑制过快单边升值趋势而做出的政策应对，反而是影响行业配置的更重 要因素。行业配置上，在人民币持续升值的背景下，可以关注短期肌肉记忆驱动、利润率变化驱动以及 政策变化驱动三条线索，我们在本期聚焦详细梳理了潜在受益行业。 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, China's capital market continued to recover, enhancing the securities industry's ability to serve the real economy and new productive forces, with significant improvements in investor asset allocation and satisfaction. The merger of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities was completed, accelerating the construction of a first-class investment bank, while securities firms strengthened their overseas subsidiaries, deepening high-level opening-up. Looking ahead to 2026, the securities industry's functional capabilities are expected to be better utilized, contributing to the construction of a financial powerhouse [1]. Industry Development: Functional Capabilities and Capital Strength - The securities industry's functional capabilities became increasingly significant in 2025, serving the real economy and new productive forces effectively. Notable companies such as Moer Thread and Nidec were listed, and major firms like CATL and Zijin Mining successfully completed IPOs in Hong Kong, with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange regaining its position as the top global IPO market [2]. - Investor satisfaction improved significantly in 2025, with the scale of financial products sold by securities firms growing. In the first half of the year, 42 listed securities firms achieved financial product sales revenue of 5.568 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32% [2]. Investment Banking: Recovery and Service to the Real Economy - In 2025, the investment banking sector showed signs of recovery, focusing on serving the real economy through equity financing and mergers and acquisitions. The A-share IPO market saw over 100 companies listed, with total fundraising reaching 110 billion yuan, indicating a shift towards quality over quantity [5]. - The Hong Kong IPO market also rebounded, with 91 companies completing IPOs and raising a total of 259.889 billion HKD, marking a significant recovery [6]. - Mergers and acquisitions became a key avenue for investment banks to deepen their service to the real economy, with policies guiding the market towards industry integration and transformation [6]. Wealth Management: Transition to Management Fees - In 2025, the wealth management business of securities firms saw significant growth, with total revenue from related businesses reaching approximately 145.028 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.4% [9]. - The shift from earning transaction commissions to management and service fees was evident, with online account openings exceeding 90% and over 80% of transactions conducted via mobile apps [11]. - The demand for wealth management services is expected to grow, driven by an increase in residents' financial assets, particularly in equity [12]. Asset Management: New Development Paths - The asset management industry underwent significant restructuring in 2025, with total private asset management product scale reaching 57.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.95% from the beginning of the year [13]. - The pursuit of public fund licenses by securities firms was paused, with many withdrawing applications, indicating a shift towards exploring differentiated development paths [14]. - Collaboration between asset management and wealth management is emerging as a new development path, with a focus on meeting diverse client needs [15]. Mergers and Acquisitions: Accelerated Restructuring - The wave of mergers and acquisitions in the securities industry intensified in 2025, with significant cases such as the merger of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities and the absorption of Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities by CICC [16][17]. - The restructuring is characterized by a focus on resource integration and strategic transformation, supported by clear policy incentives [17]. - The industry is expected to see a clearer new structure in 2026, with a focus on leading firms and potential growth among mid-sized securities companies [18].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the potential investment opportunities in the Hong Kong stock market as it approaches a year-end trading window, with favorable policy support for the consumer sector and low valuation levels in various sub-sectors [1][5][11]. Group 1: Market Insights - Hong Kong stocks are experiencing a year-end trading window, with quality assets entering a high cost-performance zone due to macroeconomic improvements and profit expectations [5]. - The Japanese central bank's recent interest rate hike to 0.75% is expected to improve overseas liquidity expectations, which may positively impact global markets [3]. - The U.S. stock market is anticipated to remain volatile, particularly high-valuation assets, as it navigates between revaluation and sentiment recovery [7]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The consumer sector is positioned for recovery, with multiple sub-sectors currently at historically low valuation levels, benefiting from policy support aimed at enhancing corporate profitability [11]. - Strong cyclical sectors such as non-ferrous metals, aluminum, chemicals, and machinery are expected to be key trading catalysts in the first quarter of 2026 [6]. - Industrial metals are projected to maintain a long-term positive trend despite short-term price pressures due to uncertainties in interest rates and the dollar [12]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The overall economic growth in 2026 is expected to remain under pressure, but investment may stabilize at low levels, with gradual improvements in consumption and resilient exports [10]. - The market is likely to transition from a valuation-driven rally to one supported by corporate earnings, with a focus on modernization and capacity expansion as key trends [10]. - The trust in the U.S. dollar is declining, which may influence global economic dynamics and investment strategies [15].

2025年12月15日，来自安徽芜湖繁昌的溜溜果园集团股份有限公司发布公告，公司于近日收到中国证券监督管理委员会（以下简称"中 国证监会"）出具的《关于溜溜果园集团股份有限公司公司境外发行上市及境内未上市股份"全流通"备案通知书》(国合函〔2025〕2276 号)。 备案通知书主要内容如下： 一、公司拟发行不超过1936.24万股境外上市普通股并在香港联交所上市。 | 序号 | 股东姓名/名称 | 申请全流通股数(股) | | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 杨帆 | 25,568,359 | | 2 | 李慧敏 | 2,940,000 | | 3 | 安徽聚润投资有限公司 | 24,600,000 | | 4 | 芜湖凯旋之星投资合伙企业(有限合伙) | 3,600,000 | | 5 | 芜湖凯莱之星投资合伙企业(有限合伙) | 2,400,000 | | 6 | 深圳君荣实业合伙企业(有限合伙) | 3,715,170 | | 7 | 长沙诺享东辰股权投资合伙企业(有限合伙) | 1,361,977 | | 8 | 长沙诺享瑾鸿股权投资合伙企业(有限合伙) | 891,641 | | 9 ...

Group 1 - A-share market shows mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index being relatively stable while the ChiNext Index is weaker due to a pullback in the technology manufacturing sector [1][11] - The consensus is forming around a potential "rally" in the market as liquidity expectations improve following key overseas events and a positive policy environment from the Central Economic Work Conference [12][13] - The market style is expected to shift towards small-cap and technology growth sectors during the "rally" window from late January to early March 2026, following a period of value-driven performance [12][13] Group 2 - The strong market performance on Wednesday may indicate the start of the 2026 cross-year market trend, supported by significant net subscriptions in stock ETFs [14] - Continued policy support and stable economic growth are anticipated to bolster market confidence and attract various types of capital inflows [14] - The trend of high-net-worth individuals moving their deposits into the stock market is likely to continue, driven by lower expected returns from other asset classes [15] Group 3 - Incremental capital is entering the A-share market through broad-based ETFs, signaling positive market sentiment as investors prepare for the "spring rally" [16] - The technology and small-cap sectors are expected to perform actively as investors increase their positions [16] - The easing of "AI bubble" concerns and the resolution of liquidity uncertainties are providing a recovery opportunity for the market [17] Group 4 - Investment strategies should focus on three key areas: dividend value, high-growth sectors during the upcoming "rally," and active themes driven by policy and technology [18] - In a strengthening RMB environment, sectors such as aviation, gas, and paper are expected to benefit from cost advantages, while upstream resources and consumer goods may see profit margin improvements [20][21] - The non-bank financial sector, particularly insurance stocks, is showing increased elasticity and may outperform if policy catalysts emerge [21]

Core Insights - The securities industry in China has shown significant recovery in 2025, enhancing its ability to serve the real economy and new productive forces, with a notable merger between Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities completed [2][4] - The industry is accelerating the construction of first-class investment banks, with increased strength in overseas subsidiaries and a deepening of high-level opening-up [2][4] Industry Development - The securities industry has become a more prominent service provider for direct financing, with significant contributions to the listing of leading technology companies and major state-owned enterprises [4] - In the first half of 2025, 42 listed securities firms achieved a total of 5.568 billion yuan in income from selling financial products, a year-on-year increase of 32% [4] - The total assets of 107 securities companies reached 14.5 trillion yuan, an increase of over 10% from the end of 2024, while net assets grew to 3.3 trillion yuan [5] - The industry is expected to continue supporting the real economy and new productive forces in 2026, with a focus on facilitating more quality enterprises and technology companies to go public [5][6] Investment Banking - The investment banking sector has shown signs of recovery, with a focus on serving the real economy through equity financing and mergers and acquisitions [8] - In 2025, the A-share IPO market saw over 100 companies listed, with total fundraising reaching 110 billion yuan, indicating a shift towards quality over quantity [8] - The Hong Kong IPO market also rebounded, with 91 companies completing IPOs and raising a total of 259.889 billion HKD, marking a significant recovery [9] - Mergers and acquisitions are becoming a key method for investment banks to deepen their service to the real economy, with policies encouraging industry consolidation [9][10] Wealth Management - The wealth management business of securities firms saw significant growth in 2025, with total income from related businesses reaching approximately 145.028 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 37.4% [11] - The brokerage business has become a core growth engine, with net income from brokerage fees increasing by 74.64% [11] - The transition from earning trading commissions to management and service fees is evident, with over 90% of new accounts opened online [13] Asset Management - The asset management industry is undergoing a restructuring, with a focus on high-quality development and a halt in the pursuit of public fund licenses [16] - As of October 2025, the total scale of private asset management products reached 5.79 trillion yuan, reflecting a 5.95% increase from the beginning of the year [16] - The industry is exploring new paths for development, emphasizing collaboration between asset management and wealth management [17][18] Mergers and Acquisitions - The wave of mergers and acquisitions in the securities industry intensified in 2025, with significant deals such as the merger of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities [19][20] - The industry is witnessing a shift from simple scale expansion to capability complementarity and strategic transformation [19] - Policies are in place to support the consolidation of leading institutions, aiming to create a few internationally competitive investment banks by 2035 [20][21]

Core Viewpoint - The securities industry in China has shown significant recovery in 2025, with a focus on enhancing its capabilities to serve the real economy and new productive forces, alongside a notable increase in investor asset allocation and satisfaction. The merger of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities marks a step towards building a first-class investment bank, while the industry continues to strengthen its overseas subsidiaries and deepen high-level openness [2][4][5]. Industry Development - The securities industry has increasingly demonstrated its functional capabilities, with total assets of 107 securities firms reaching 14.5 trillion yuan, a growth of over 10% from the end of 2024. Net assets rose to 3.3 trillion yuan, showing steady growth [5]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, 43 listed securities firms reported a combined operating income of 419.56 billion yuan, with an average year-on-year increase of 40%, and a net profit of 169.29 billion yuan, reflecting an average increase of 88.68% [5]. - The merger of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities has been completed, achieving a "1+1>2" effect, while other mergers, such as CICC with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities, are in progress [4][5]. Investment Banking - The investment banking sector has shown signs of recovery, focusing on serving the real economy through equity financing, mergers and acquisitions, and cross-border service upgrades. The A-share IPO market saw over 100 companies listed, with total fundraising reaching 110 billion yuan [7][8]. - The Hong Kong IPO market has rebounded, with 91 companies completing IPOs and raising a total of 259.89 billion HKD, marking a significant recovery [8]. - Mergers and acquisitions have become a key avenue for investment banks to deepen their services to the real economy, with policies guiding the market towards industrial integration and transformation [8]. Wealth Management - The wealth management business of securities firms has seen significant growth, with a total revenue of approximately 145.03 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 37.4% [11]. - Brokerage fee income reached 111.78 billion yuan, up 74.64%, while asset management fees were 33.25 billion yuan, showing a modest increase [11]. - The transition from earning trading commissions to management and service fees is evident, with over 90% of new accounts opened online and more than 80% of transactions conducted via mobile apps [13]. Asset Management - The asset management industry is undergoing a restructuring, with the total scale of private asset management products reaching 5.79 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.95% from the beginning of the year [15]. - The pursuit of public fund licenses has been paused, with several firms withdrawing their applications, indicating a shift in focus towards private asset management strategies [16]. - Collaboration between asset management and wealth management is emerging as a new development path, with firms expected to enhance their offerings in active management and client service [17]. Mergers and Acquisitions - The wave of mergers and acquisitions in the securities industry has intensified, with significant deals such as the merger of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities and the absorption of Dongxing and Xinda Securities by CICC [18][19]. - Policies supporting the consolidation of leading firms aim to enhance core competitiveness and encourage differentiated development among smaller firms [19]. - The industry is expected to see a clearer new structure by 2026, with a focus on integrating resources and enhancing the international competitiveness of Chinese securities firms [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the insurance and brokerage sectors, suggesting an "Overweight" rating for both industries, indicating expected outperformance compared to the overall market [2][66]. Core Insights - The brokerage sector is experiencing a fundamental and valuation mismatch, with a recommendation to focus on leading firms benefiting from improved competitive dynamics [2][5]. - The insurance sector is poised for a systematic value reassessment, with significant regulatory changes expected to enhance asset-liability management practices [2][17]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,568.18 with a slight decline of -0.28% over the week, while the non-bank index rose by 2.90% [5]. - The brokerage, insurance, and diversified financial sectors reported gains of 1.01%, 7.03%, and 1.39% respectively [5]. Key Data in Non-Banking Sector - As of December 19, 2025, the average daily trading volume in the stock market was 18,033.77 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 15.23% compared to the previous month [41]. - The margin trading balance reached 24,993.66 billion yuan, an increase of 34.0% from the end of 2024 [15]. Brokerage Sector Insights - The report highlights the merger of China International Capital Corporation (CICC) with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities, marking a significant consolidation trend in the brokerage industry [2][29]. - The brokerage index's price-to-book ratio (PB) is currently at 1.38, indicating a low valuation compared to historical levels [2]. Insurance Sector Insights - The new asset-liability management regulations are expected to significantly impact the insurance industry, emphasizing the need for effective risk management and alignment of assets and liabilities [2][17]. - The insurance sector index increased by 7.03%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 7.30 percentage points [2]. Investment Recommendations - For the brokerage sector, the report recommends focusing on top-tier firms such as Guotai Junan, GF Securities, and CITIC Securities, which are expected to benefit from improved competitive conditions [2]. - In the insurance sector, companies like China Life, Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance are highlighted for their potential in the ongoing value reassessment [2].