证券研究报告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------|-----------------------------------|--------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

证券研究报告 | 2024年09月12日 三一重工（600031.SH） 优于大市 盈利能力回升，持续推进全球化发展 2024 上半年营收同比下降 2.16%，归母净利润同比增长 4.80%。公司 2024 上半年营收 390.06 亿元，同比下降 2.16%；归母净利润 35.73 亿元，同比增 长 4.80%。业绩增长主要系国内需求筑底企稳，海外市场竞争力增强，市场 份额持续扩大所致。毛利率/净利率分别为 28.24%/9.42%，同比变动 +0.03/+0.61pct，盈利能力增长主要由于高毛利海外业务占比提升，同时公 司持续推进降本增效措施。公司财务费用率同比增长 3.15 个 pct，主要系 2024 上半年公司汇兑损失 2.82 亿元，去年同期为汇兑收益 10.80 亿元。 海外营收占比提升，持续推进全球化。2024 上半年公司海外营收 235.42 亿 元，同比增长 4.79%，占总收入 60.78%，同比提升 4.49pct 个 pct，主要系 公司持续推进全球化战略，海外市场份额持续提升。分区域看，2024 年上半 年欧洲、亚澳地区实现小幅增长，美洲地区小幅下滑，非洲地区增长较快， 营收同比 ...

证券研究报告 2024 年 09 月 11 日 湘财证券研究所 公司研究 三一重工（600031）首次覆盖 国内工程机械龙头，全球化布局持续推进 相关研究： 1.《20240807湘财证券-机械行 业：7月我国挖机销量同比增长 8.6%，装载机电动化率持续提 升》 公司评级：增持（首次覆盖） 近十二个月公司表现 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 23/09 23/11 24/01 24/03 24/05 24/07 24/09 三一重工 沪深300 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|----------|--------------------|-------|-------|---------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | % | 1 个月 | | 3 | 个月 | 12 个月 | | 相对收益 | | | | | 5.4 8.5 10.2 | | 绝对收益 | | | | | 1.0 -2.3 -4.6 | | | | 注：相对收益与沪深 | | | 300 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次) [1] Core Views - The company has established itself as a leader in the engineering machinery market with a diverse product range, including concrete machinery, excavators, and cranes, achieving high market recognition [3][15] - The engineering machinery industry is expected to stabilize and recover in 2024, driven by domestic demand and continued growth in overseas markets [3][31] - The company possesses four key competitive advantages: strong core product advantages, advancements in electrification, accelerated overseas expansion, and a focus on digital transformation [3][31] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in 1989, the company has evolved from a small factory to a leading enterprise in the domestic engineering machinery sector, with a rich product line and significant market recognition [3][9] - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with the actual controller holding a significant portion of shares, ensuring stability in management [11][12] Industry Outlook - The engineering machinery industry has entered a down cycle since 2021, but signs of recovery are emerging, particularly in excavator sales, which have shown positive growth in early 2024 [31][33] - Domestic demand is expected to stabilize due to improvements in real estate and infrastructure projects, while overseas markets continue to be a major growth driver [3][31] Competitive Advantages - The company has a clear advantage in core products, with the highest market share in excavators and a leading position in concrete machinery globally [3][15] - The company has committed to electrification, with significant revenue from electric and hybrid products, positioning itself as a leader in the new energy engineering equipment sector [3][31] - The overseas revenue share has increased from 25.1% in 2018 to 60.5% in 2023, indicating successful international expansion [3][31] - The company is advancing its digital transformation, enhancing its core competitiveness through smart products and manufacturing [3][31] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 786.98 billion yuan in 2024 to 983.56 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding net profits expected to rise from 58.33 billion yuan to 100.11 billion yuan during the same period [3][4] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to increase from 0.69 yuan in 2024 to 1.18 yuan in 2026, with a current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23, 16, and 13 for the respective years [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [2][5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 39.06 billion yuan for H1 2024, a year-over-year decrease of 2.16%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.573 billion yuan, an increase of 4.80% year-over-year [5] - The excavator segment has turned to positive growth, with revenue of 15.215 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-over-year increase of 0.43% [5] - The overseas market has shown significant growth, particularly in Africa, where revenue increased by 66.71% year-over-year [5] Financial Summary - For H1 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 28.24%, up 0.03 percentage points year-over-year, and a net profit margin of 9.15%, up 0.63 percentage points year-over-year [5] - The company’s operating cash flow improved significantly, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 8.438 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 2204.61% [5] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is adjusted to 6.410 billion, 7.674 billion, and 8.979 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 21.3, 17.8, and 15.2 times [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for SANY Heavy Industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The collective reduction of shares by senior executives has led to a significant market reaction, with a single-day market value loss of approximately 75 billion CNY following the announcement of a share reduction plan [1][4] - The reduction plan involves seven senior executives, including the rotating chairman, indicating a lack of confidence in the company's future performance [5][6] - Despite high salaries for these executives, they cited "personal funding needs" as the reason for their share reduction, raising questions about their financial situations [8][9] - The company's stock price has been under pressure, with a notable decline following the announcement of the reduction plan, which interrupted a recent upward trend in stock performance [10][11] Summary by Sections Executive Share Reduction - On September 6, SANY Heavy Industry announced a plan for seven executives to reduce their holdings by up to 754.91 million shares, amounting to approximately 1.22 billion CNY in market value [4][5] - The executives involved hold significant positions within the company, which amplifies the market's negative perception of the share reduction [6][7] Financial Performance - SANY Heavy Industry's revenue has declined significantly from 1,068.7 billion CNY in 2021 to 740.2 billion CNY in 2023, representing a 31% decrease [19][21] - The company's net profit has also dropped sharply from 154.3 billion CNY in 2020 to 45.3 billion CNY in 2023, indicating severe profitability challenges [19][21] Market Sentiment and Analyst Reports - Despite the negative sentiment surrounding the share reduction, various sell-side analysts have issued positive reports, with 48 bullish reports published in 2024 alone [13][14] - Institutional investors have increased their holdings in SANY Heavy Industry, with 914 institutions holding a total of 4.5 billion shares, representing 53.03% of total shares [14][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting its stock price to outperform the industry index by more than 15% in the next 6 months [11] Core Views - The company's profitability continues to recover, driven by rapid growth in overseas sales and cost reduction measures [2] - The company is making significant progress in electrification and globalization, with over 80 new energy products launched, including the SW956E electric loader and SY215E electric excavator [2] - Overseas revenue reached 23.542 billion yuan in H1 2024, accounting for 62.23% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 31.57% [2] - The company's core products, such as excavators, concrete machinery, and cranes, maintain leading market share and sales levels in the industry [2] Financial Performance - Revenue in H1 2024 was 38.738 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.95% YoY, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 4.80% YoY to 3.573 billion yuan [1] - Operating cash flow surged by 2204.61% YoY to 8.438 billion yuan in H1 2024 [1] - Q2 2024 revenue was 21.076 billion yuan, down 2.92% YoY but up 19.33% QoQ, with net profit increasing by 5.52% YoY and 26.11% QoQ to 1.993 billion yuan [2] - Gross margin and net margin in Q2 2024 were 28.32% and 9.61%, respectively, showing slight improvements both YoY and QoQ [2] Future Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from 77.981 billion yuan in 2024E to 102.861 billion yuan in 2026E, with a CAGR of 14.7% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from 6.281 billion yuan in 2024E to 9.772 billion yuan in 2026E, with a CAGR of 24.7% [1] - ROE is forecasted to rise from 8.5% in 2024E to 11.4% in 2026E, while EPS is expected to grow from 0.74 yuan in 2024E to 1.15 yuan in 2026E [1] Product and Market Performance - Excavator sales in H1 2024 were 15.215 billion yuan, up 0.43% YoY, while concrete machinery sales declined by 5.22% YoY to 7.957 billion yuan [2] - Road machinery sales increased by 15.74% YoY to 1.578 billion yuan in H1 2024 [2] - The company's SW956E electric loader secured a large order of 200 units in Indonesia, marking a significant breakthrough in electric product exports [2] Global Expansion - The company's overseas factories, including the second phase of the Indonesia plant and the India and South Africa plants, are under construction or have completed expansion [2] - Overseas revenue growth is supported by the company's strong presence in international markets and its focus on product localization [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [5] Core Views - In August 2024, the company's excavator sales saw significant growth, particularly in the African region, indicating a successful global expansion strategy [1][2] - The domestic market has entered a stable upward trend, with small excavator sales increasing by 51% year-on-year, and medium excavators by 44% [2] - The overseas market is also recovering, with small excavator sales up 16% and medium excavators up 32% year-on-year [2] - The company's overseas revenue accounted for 62% of its main business income in the first half of 2024, with a total overseas sales revenue of 23.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [2] - The company has established a strong presence in Africa, with sales reaching 3.5 billion yuan from January to August 2024, a growth of over 60% year-on-year [2] - The company's profitability and operational quality have improved, with a significant increase in operating cash flow by 2204% in the second quarter of 2024 [2][3] Summary by Sections Domestic Market Performance - In August 2024, small excavator sales increased by 51% year-on-year, medium excavators by 44%, and large excavators remained stable [2] - Non-excavator products like concrete and lifting machinery saw a narrowing decline [2] Overseas Market Performance - In the first half of 2024, overseas sales revenue reached 23.5 billion yuan, accounting for 62% of main business income, with notable growth in the African region at 66.7% [2] - The company has a strong foothold in Africa, with over 200 billion yuan in equipment sales since 2002 and a local service network established in 52 countries [2] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the first half of 2024 was 39.06 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.2% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 4.8% to 3.57 billion yuan [2] - The gross margin for the first half of 2024 was 28.24%, with a net margin of 9.42% [2][10] Industry Outlook - The global construction machinery industry is expected to improve due to increasing export market share, domestic demand recovery, and the initiation of a replacement cycle [3] - Profit forecasts for 2024-2026 indicate a net profit growth of 38%, 29%, and 22% respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 21, 16, and 13 [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has shown strong sales growth in both domestic and overseas markets, with domestic small excavator sales increasing by 51% year-on-year and overseas small excavator sales up by 16% [1] - The company is benefiting from a recovery in the domestic construction machinery market, supported by the issuance of government bonds and a large-scale equipment update policy [1] - The company's global manufacturing expansion is expected to enhance its market share, with significant growth opportunities in emerging markets like Africa [1] - Progress in electrification and new energy products is notable, with over 80 new energy products launched in the first half of 2024 [1] - The projected net profit for 2024-2026 is expected to be 6.586 billion, 8.067 billion, and 10.127 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 20x, 16x, and 13x [1] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In August 2024, domestic small excavator sales increased by 51% year-on-year, medium excavators by 44%, and large excavators remained flat. Overseas small excavator sales grew by 16%, medium excavators by 32%, and large excavators by 63% [1] - Sales in Africa reached 3.5 billion yuan, up over 60% year-on-year [1] Market Recovery - The domestic market is showing signs of recovery, aided by the commencement of government bond projects and the acceleration of old equipment replacement policies [1] - The company has established a strong presence in Africa, with over 60% localization and service coverage in 52 countries [1] Global Manufacturing Expansion - The company has a global market share of 4.2%, indicating significant room for growth compared to industry leaders [1] - Expansion projects in Indonesia, India, and South Africa are underway, which are expected to enhance global market share [1] Electrification and New Energy - The company has made advancements in electrification, with 30 low-carbon patents obtained in the first half of 2024 [1] - Major breakthroughs include securing a large order for 200 electric loaders in Indonesia and leading the industry in energy consumption performance for electric excavators [1] Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 79.25 billion, 89.106 billion, and 102.811 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with growth rates of 7.1%, 12.4%, and 15.4% [1] - The projected net profit growth rates are 45.5%, 22.5%, and 25.5% for the same years [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company has shown strong sales growth in both domestic and overseas markets, with domestic small excavator sales increasing by 51% year-on-year and overseas small excavator sales up by 16% [2] - The company is benefiting from a recovery in the domestic construction machinery market, supported by the issuance of government bonds and the acceleration of equipment upgrades [2] - The company's global manufacturing expansion is expected to enhance its market share, with significant growth opportunities in emerging markets like Africa [2] - Progress in electrification and new energy products is notable, with over 80 new energy products launched in the first half of 2024 [2] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In August 2024, domestic small excavator sales increased by 51%, medium excavators by 44%, and large excavators remained flat. Overseas, small excavator sales grew by 16%, medium by 32%, and large by 63 [2] - Sales in Africa reached 3.5 billion yuan, up over 60% year-on-year [2] Market Recovery - The domestic market is stabilizing due to the commencement of government bond projects and the push for equipment upgrades, leading to a recovery in excavator sales [2] - The report notes that aside from February, which saw a nearly 50% decline due to seasonal factors, excavator sales have shown year-on-year growth in other months [2] Global Expansion - The company has established a strong presence in Africa with 4 regional offices, 14 subsidiaries, and over 50 service points, achieving a localization rate of over 60% [2] - The global market share of the company is currently at 4.2%, indicating significant room for growth compared to industry leaders [2] Technological Advancements - The company has made strides in electrification, with 30 patents related to low-carbon technologies obtained in the first half of 2024 [2] - Major breakthroughs include securing a large order for 200 electric loaders in Indonesia and leading the industry in energy consumption performance for electric excavators [2] Financial Projections - The projected net profit for 2024-2026 is 6.586 billion, 8.067 billion, and 10.127 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 20x, 16x, and 13x [2] - Revenue is expected to grow from 79.25 billion yuan in 2024 to 102.81 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [2]