Core Viewpoint - Chongqing Beer maintains its market share growth in H1 2025, actively promoting the high-endization of non-on-trade channels, although increased investment impacts the ton price [1] Company Summary - Carlsberg and Fenghua Xueyue brands are expected to continue strong growth, while 1664 and Wusu canned products also contribute to incremental growth [1] - Increased investment in non-on-trade channels affects the ton price of high-end and mainstream products, despite good growth in economic products mainly due to internal structural upgrades [1] - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio of 104% for 2024, with current market valuations corresponding to PE ratios of 22/21/20X [1] Industry Summary - Continued stimulus from consumption policies is expected to stabilize and restore downstream demand, driving volume and price expansion in the industry [1] - There remains significant upgrade potential in the beer industry in the medium to long term, supported by a complete product matrix and a focus on enhancing organizational capabilities and channel cultivation [1] - A recovery in on-trade demand could accelerate the industry's upgrade rate, with the company's high-end flagship products likely to regain momentum [1]

格隆汇8月18日｜浙商证券研报指出，重庆啤酒上半年归母净利润8.65亿元，同比-4.03%。25Q2归母净 利润3.92亿元，同比-12.70%。经营维持稳健，税率影响利润。公司25年发力非现饮渠道，加强核心市 场深耕，产品结构受餐饮渠道疲软下略有承压。预计25年销量稳中有增、吨价略有承压，公司在发力非 现饮渠道下货折或有提升，25年原料包材采购成本或有显著改善，但所得税率提升或一定程度影响盈利 能力，关注高股息下的基本面改善。当前估值具性价比，维持"买入"评级。 ...

海通国际8月18日发布研报称，给予重庆啤酒（600132.SH，最新价：55.26元）优于大市评级，目标价 格为61元。评级理由主要包括：1）上半年营收基本稳定，展现较强经营韧性；2）销量超越行业平均， 产品组合积极调整应对市场变化；3）成本优化带动毛利率提升，但税率上升拖累净利表现。风险提 示：消费力恢复弱于预期，原材料价格再次上涨，高端价格带竞争加剧。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][9]. Core Views - The company reported a slight decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with total revenue at 8.84 billion yuan, down 0.2% year-on-year, and net profit at 860 million yuan, down 4.0% year-on-year [1][7]. - The pressure on beer prices has increased, particularly in the second quarter of 2025, leading to a decline in profitability despite a slight improvement in gross margin due to cost benefits [2][8]. - The company is expected to face ongoing price pressures, with future improvements dependent on the recovery of consumer spending and the introduction of new products [3][9]. Revenue and Profitability Summary - In the first half of 2025, beer sales volume increased by 1.9% year-on-year, but the average price per ton decreased by 1.1%, primarily due to increased promotional efforts [1][7]. - The gross margin for the beer business was 51.3%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin decreased by 0.4 percentage points due to a rise in the effective tax rate [2][8]. - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, now expecting revenues of 14.73 billion, 15.03 billion, and 15.35 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.26 billion, 1.31 billion, and 1.35 billion yuan [3][9]. Financial Projections - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 2.61 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 21 times [4][9]. - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [3][9].

Macro Strategy - The report discusses potential space for consumption growth despite challenges in the "old-for-new" policy, highlighting three supporting factors: a gradual recovery in restaurant growth, the release of birth subsidies starting in August, and the impact of consumer loan interest subsidies [1][7] - July economic data shows a mixed picture, with industrial value-added growth at 5.7% year-on-year and retail sales growth slowing to 3.7% [7][8] - The report anticipates a rebound in consumption growth in the second half of the year, driven by restaurant recovery and subsidies [7] Fixed Income - The report covers the issuance of Kai Zhong Convertible Bonds (113698.SH) with a total issuance scale of 308 million yuan, aimed at funding a new smart home appliance manufacturing base [2][9] - The bond has a YTM of 2.19% and a maturity of 6 years, with a conversion price of 12.7 yuan per share [9][10] Industry Analysis Huari Precision (688059) - The company reported a revenue of 519 million yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 26.48%, and a net profit of 85 million yuan, up 18.80% [3][11] - The company maintains a profit forecast of 157 million, 211 million, and 273 million yuan for 2025-2027, with a current dynamic PE of 38, 28, and 22 times respectively [11][12] Geely Automobile (00175.HK) - Geely's Q2 2025 revenue reached 77.79 billion yuan, with a net profit of 3.62 billion yuan, aligning with expectations [4][13] - The company has revised its net profit forecast for 2025-2027 to 15 billion, 22.1 billion, and 29.5 billion yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 12, 8, and 6 times [13] Changjiang Electric Power (600900) - The company aims for a power generation target of 300 billion kWh in 2025, with net profit forecasts of 35.03 billion, 36.72 billion, and 37.09 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [5][14] - The report highlights a stable dividend policy with a minimum payout ratio of 70% for the next five years [14][15] Chongqing Beer (600132) - The company reported H1 2025 revenue of 8.839 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.24%, with a net profit of 865 million yuan, down 4.03% [16][17] - The report notes a resilient performance from brands like Lebao and Wusu, despite a challenging market environment [16][17] Yihua Da (301029) - The company achieved H1 2025 revenue of 1.461 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.70%, driven by strong demand in the new energy and automotive sectors [18] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 is maintained at 553 million, 665 million, and 791 million yuan, with a dynamic PE of 29, 24, and 20 times respectively [18]

Core Viewpoint - Chongqing Beer is experiencing its first-ever decline in both revenue and net profit in its mid-year performance, indicating significant challenges in the competitive beer market [3][5][6]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Chongqing Beer reported revenue of 8.839 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.24% year-on-year, and a net profit of 865 million yuan, down 4.03% year-on-year [3][5]. - This marks the first time in the company's history since its listing in 1997 that both revenue and net profit have declined simultaneously in a mid-year report [5][6]. - For the full year of 2024, the company also saw declines in revenue and net profit, with figures of 14.645 billion yuan and 1.115 billion yuan, respectively, representing decreases of 1.15% and 16.61% year-on-year [5][6]. Product Performance - High-end product revenue reached 5.625 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, showing only a marginal increase of 0.04%, while mid-range product revenue declined [4][7]. - The only segment showing growth was the economy product line, which saw a revenue increase of 5.39% to 196 million yuan [4][7]. Marketing and Sales Strategy - The company has invested heavily in marketing, hiring multiple celebrity endorsements, including Wu Lei and Fan Chengcheng, with sales expenses amounting to 1.333 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [4][8]. - Despite these efforts, sales in the southern market, one of its core regions, fell by 1.47% to 2.478 billion yuan, indicating challenges in driving sales growth [9][10]. R&D and Future Outlook - Research and development investment has significantly decreased, with only 5.7819 million yuan spent in the first half of 2025, a drop of 50.12% year-on-year [11]. - The company plans to invest 600 million yuan to enhance its subsidiary in Foshan, aiming to improve its market competitiveness in the southern region [10].

Core Viewpoint - Chongqing Beer (600132.SH) is experiencing its first-ever decline in both revenue and net profit in its mid-year performance, indicating significant challenges in its business strategy and market conditions [3][4][6]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Chongqing Beer reported revenue of 8.839 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.24% year-on-year, and a net profit of 865 million yuan, down 4.03% year-on-year [4][6]. - This marks the first time in the company's history that both revenue and net profit have declined simultaneously in a mid-year report [4][6]. - The company's revenue and net profit also declined in 2024, with figures of 14.645 billion yuan and 1.115 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.15% and 16.61% [4][6]. Product Performance - High-end product revenue reached 5.625 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, showing only a marginal increase of 0.04%, while mid-range product revenue declined [3][9]. - The only segment showing growth was the economy product line, which saw a revenue increase of 5.39% to 196 million yuan [9][11]. Marketing and Sales Strategy - The company has invested heavily in marketing, with sales expenses amounting to 1.333 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, despite the lack of significant sales growth [10][11]. - Chongqing Beer has engaged multiple celebrity endorsements, including Wu Lei and Fan Chengcheng, but this strategy has not translated into improved sales performance [10][11]. Market Environment - The domestic beer market is highly competitive, with Chongqing Beer facing external challenges that have contributed to its declining performance [6][9]. - In the first half of 2025, the overall beer production in China decreased by 0.3%, while Chongqing Beer managed a slight volume increase of 0.95% to 1.8008 million kiloliters [6][9]. Future Outlook - The company plans to invest 600 million yuan to enhance its subsidiary in Foshan, aiming to strengthen its market position in the southern region [11]. - Continuous decline in R&D investment, which fell by 50.12% to 5.7819 million yuan in the first half of 2025, raises concerns about the company's ability to innovate and adapt [11][12].

Core Insights - The company demonstrated strong operational resilience with stable revenue in the first half of the year, reporting revenue of 8.839 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.24% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 865 million yuan, down 4.03% year-on-year [1] Revenue and Profit Performance - The company's revenue for Q2 was 4.484 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1% [1] - The net profit for the first half was 865 million yuan, with a non-recurring net profit of 855 million yuan, showing a decrease of 3.72% year-on-year [1] Sales Volume and Market Position - Total sales volume reached 1.8008 million kiloliters in the first half, an increase of 0.95% year-on-year, with Q2 sales volume at 917,300 kiloliters, up 0.03% year-on-year, outperforming the industry average [1] Cost Management and Profitability - The gross margin improved to 49.83% in the first half, up 0.61 percentage points year-on-year, and exceeded 51.21% in Q2, an increase of 0.75 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in cost per ton [1] - The cost per ton decreased by 2.4% year-on-year in the first half and by 3% year-on-year in Q2 [1] Strategic Outlook - Despite facing challenges in the second quarter, the company has shown strong adaptability and strategic determination by actively adjusting its product mix, expanding consumption scenarios, and increasing investment in non-traditional beverage channels [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 8.839 billion yuan in H1 2025, a slight decrease of 0.24% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 865 million yuan, down 4.03% year-on-year [1] - The company is focusing on expanding its non-current drinking channels and strengthening its core market, although the product structure is slightly pressured due to weak performance in the catering channel [6][11] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In H1 2025, the company sold 1.8008 million tons of beer, a year-on-year increase of 0.95%, with an average price of 4,908 yuan per ton, down 1.18% year-on-year [2] - The revenue breakdown shows that high-end beer revenue was 5.265 billion yuan (up 0.04% year-on-year), mainstream beer revenue was 3.145 billion yuan (down 0.92%), and economy beer revenue was 196 million yuan (up 5.39%) [2] Regional Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported revenues of 2.596 billion yuan in the Northwest region (up 1.75% year-on-year), 3.532 billion yuan in the Central region (down 0.7%), and 2.479 billion yuan in the Southern region (down 1.47%) [4] Cost and Profitability - The company's gross margin and net margin for H1 2025 were 49.83% and 19.55%, respectively, with a year-on-year change of +0.62% and -0.76 percentage points [5] - The operating cash flow for H1 2025 was 2.906 billion yuan, an increase of 13.80% year-on-year [5] Future Projections - Revenue growth is projected at 0.6% for 2025, with net profit growth of 7.7% [11] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 2.5 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 22.3 [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Chongqing Brewery with a target price of RMB 61.00, based on a current price of RMB 55.26 [2][6]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 was RMB 8.839 billion, showing a slight decline of 0.24% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 865 million, down 4.03% year-on-year [3][11]. - The company demonstrated strong operational resilience despite facing pressure in Q2, where revenue was RMB 4.484 billion, down 1.84% year-on-year, and net profit was RMB 392 million, down 12.70% year-on-year [3][11]. - Regional performance varied, with the Northwest region showing growth, while the Southern region faced significant pressure [3][11]. Revenue and Profitability - Total sales volume in H1 reached 1.8008 million kiloliters, up 0.95% year-on-year, outperforming the industry average [4][12]. - The average ton price for H1 was RMB 4,779, down 1.14% year-on-year, with high-end products showing slight revenue growth [4][12]. - Gross margin improved to 49.83% in H1, up 0.61 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to lower tonnage costs [5][13]. Cost Management and Tax Impact - Cost optimization efforts led to a gross margin increase, but a significant rise in the corporate income tax rate from 20% to 27.2% negatively impacted net profit [5][13]. - The net profit margin for H1 was 9.8%, down 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, with Q2 showing a further decline to 8.7% [5][13]. Investment Recommendations and Forecasts - The report suggests that despite short-term challenges, the company's fundamentals are expected to stabilize, with a high dividend payout ratio and steady expansion of the dealer network [6][14]. - EPS estimates for 2025-2027 are projected at RMB 2.42, RMB 2.56, and RMB 2.74, respectively, with a 25x PE multiple applied for 2025 [6][14].