Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that short-term beer consumption is expected to improve due to the gradual recovery of the dining sector and moderate inflation expectations, while long-term trends indicate a stable beer consumption volume supported by core consumer demographics and a shift towards premiumization [1][3] - Major beer companies are actively promoting festive marketing strategies for the 2026 Spring Festival, focusing on cultural themes and digital engagement to enhance brand competitiveness [1] - Inventory management among leading beer companies remains strong, with positive growth in offline market stocking for the Spring Festival, showing a 5.7% year-on-year increase in GMV during the stocking period [1] Group 2 - The beer sector has experienced weak sales performance in 2024, primarily due to slow recovery in consumption and a decline in the contribution rate from on-premise channels, while non-on-premise channels are becoming the main growth drivers [2] - The restaurant market is showing signs of recovery, with a higher opening rate than closing rate, which is expected to provide solid sales support for beer consumption, particularly in lower-tier markets [3] - There is significant potential for upgrading the beer consumption structure in China, with a long-term trend towards premiumization, as evidenced by the comparison of market shares of mid-to-high-end beers in China versus the US and Japan [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the consumer staples sector in China is "Outperform" for multiple companies including Moutai, Wuliangye, and others [1]. Core Insights - Premium baijiu wholesale prices have rebounded month-on-month, while discounts on liquid milk and condiments have narrowed [1][11]. - The report highlights the resilience of consumer stocks amidst a volatile market, emphasizing their value [3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Baijiu Pricing - Moutai's wholesale prices for Feitian (case and single bottle) are 1700 and 1650 yuan respectively, with month-on-month increases of +100 and +70 yuan. Year-to-date changes are +100 and +60 yuan, but year-on-year changes are -530 and -560 yuan [10][40]. - Wuliangye's eighth-generation price remains stable at 830 yuan, with a year-to-date increase of +10 yuan and a year-on-year decrease of -105 yuan [4][40]. - Luzhou Laojiao's Guojiao 1573 price is 870 yuan, up by +20 yuan month-on-month and +20 yuan year-to-date, with a year-on-year increase of +10 yuan [4][40]. - Other notable prices include Shanxi Fenjiu and various products from Yanghe and Gujing Gongjiu, showing mixed trends in pricing [10][40]. Discounts on Consumer Products - Discounts on liquid milk products have decreased from an average of 62.8% to 61.4% and from 63.4% to 61.7% for median values [19][37]. - Discounts on condiments have also narrowed from 87.1% to 85.0% (average) and from 88.2% to 84.9% (median) [19][37]. - Conversely, discounts on convenience foods have slightly increased, with average discounts moving from 94.8% to 94.6% [20][37]. - Beer, soft drinks, and infant formula discounts have remained stable, with slight variations in average and median rates [21][38].

Core Viewpoint - Carlsberg Group reported a revenue of 89.095 billion Danish Krone (approximately 97.7 billion RMB) for 2025, marking an 18.78% year-on-year growth, with adjusted operating profit increasing by 22.65% [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - Carlsberg's Chinese operations contributed 14.722 billion RMB, reflecting a 0.53% year-on-year growth, with net profit reaching 1.231 billion RMB, up by 10.43% [1][2] - The overall revenue for the reporting period was 1,472,187.11 million RMB, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 123,089.71 million RMB [2] Group 2: Market Strategy - Carlsberg's growth in China is attributed to three main factors: strong growth in major cities, performance in emerging channels like O2O and e-commerce, and the introduction of 1-liter packaging [3][6][10] - The company plans to focus on deepening its market presence in existing cities rather than expanding into new ones, aiming to increase market share in cities with less than 5% share to 7-8% and in cities with 15-20% share to around 30% [5][6] Group 3: Product Innovation - Carlsberg is enhancing its 1-liter product offerings, which are designed for social sharing and feature premium packaging to stand out on shelves [10][11] - The company plans to launch over ten new 1-liter beer products in 2025, including various craft beers [11] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Carlsberg's strategy includes a focus on high-end products and leveraging partnerships with platforms like Meituan to penetrate the fine dining market [10][24] - The company has established a robust product matrix, including local brands like Wusu and international brands such as Kronenbourg 1664, which is facing challenges in the ultra-premium segment [16][22][23] Group 5: Future Outlook - Carlsberg maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook for its Chinese operations in 2026, expecting to sustain growth despite a stabilizing market [29][30] - The company emphasizes that its beverage business is designed to complement its beer operations, providing alternatives for consumers who choose not to drink alcohol [27][28]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Buy" [5] Core Insights - The 2026 Spring Festival consumption exceeded expectations, with service consumption leading the growth, driven by a significant increase in dining and travel demand [2][7] - The report highlights a notable recovery in the travel sector, with an expected total of 9.5 billion people traveling during the Spring Festival, marking a historical high [10][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of quality and experience in consumer spending, with a shift towards premium products and services [7][19] Summary by Sections 1. Spring Festival Consumption Trends - The Spring Festival holiday from February 15 to 23, 2026, saw a "good start" in consumption, with key retail and dining enterprises reporting a 10.6% increase in average daily sales compared to the same period in 2025 [10][22] - The first four days of the holiday recorded an 8.6% increase in average daily sales for key retail and dining enterprises compared to the previous year [10][19] - Government initiatives, including a 20.5 billion yuan fund for consumer subsidies, significantly boosted consumer spending [11][10] 2. Baijiu (Chinese Liquor) Market - The Baijiu market showed signs of improvement, with a narrowing decline compared to previous major holidays, although brand differentiation became more pronounced [27][30] - High-end Baijiu brands like Moutai and Wuliangye continued to lead the market, with a focus on price elasticity and rational consumer behavior [27][30] - The report identifies three key changes in the Baijiu market: increased importance of personal consumption, a more relaxed approach from manufacturers regarding sales targets, and improved channel sentiment [30][31] 3. Snack and Food Market - The snack market is expected to benefit from an extended peak season, with a longer preparation and sales cycle compared to 2025 [33][34] - Offline channels, particularly membership-based supermarkets and discount stores, are performing better than online channels, with significant growth in sales during the holiday period [34][35] - The report notes a diversification in snack offerings, with strong performance in high-quality nut gift boxes and innovative packaging strategies enhancing brand visibility [35][36]

新浪财经"酒价内参"重磅上线 知名白酒真实市场价尽在掌握 转自：前瞻产业研究院 以下数据及分析来自于前瞻产业研究院啤酒研究小组发布的《中国啤酒行业品牌竞争与消费需求投资预 测分析报告》 行业主要上市公司：华润啤酒(00291.HK);青岛啤酒(600600);百威亚太(01876.HK);重庆啤酒(600132);燕 京啤酒(000729)等 本文核心数据：产业链上下游企业;产业链企业分布;代表性企业产能;代表性企业投资动向等 啤酒产业链全景梳理：中游受龙头企业垄断 啤酒行业目前在我国已经拥有较为成熟的产业链。上游企业以原材料、酿造设备以及啤酒包装等部分构 成，其中原材料以麦芽、啤酒花、酵母等产品为主。中游为啤酒生产商，目前我国中游啤酒生产商已形 成垄断趋势，市场份额主要由华润啤酒、青岛啤酒、百威亚太、重庆啤酒以及燕京啤酒垄断，五大品牌 市场份额合计约占80%左右。下游主要为实体商超以及线上零售渠道。 从中游啤酒制造商的区域分布来看，企业主要集中在粤港大湾区、山东和重庆等地区。 目前，我国啤酒行业上游原材料供应商主要为安琪酵母，永顺泰等;上游啤酒设备供应商主要为中集安 瑞科、乐惠国际等;上游啤酒包装主要有中粮 ...

Core Viewpoint - Chongqing Beer is expected to release its 2025 annual report soon, which will provide comprehensive financial data, dividend plans, and business details, indicating a stable outlook for the company in the coming years [2] Financial Performance - For 2025, the company reported a revenue of 14.722 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.231 billion yuan, with a year-on-year sales growth of 0.68%, outperforming the industry average [2] - The formal annual report may further clarify the dividend plan, with a cash dividend rate of 104.21% for 2024 and an estimated mid-year dividend of approximately 630 million yuan for 2025 [2] Recent Events - A contract dispute with Chongqing Jiawei was resolved through mediation in December 2025, with the plaintiff withdrawing the lawsuit on January 12, 2026, eliminating long-term uncertainties and providing stability for procurement arrangements for the next three years (2026-2028) [3] - Following the settlement, the company reversed previously accrued liabilities, which is expected to increase the net profit for 2025 by approximately 19.0796 million yuan, potentially enhancing operational efficiency [3] Strategic Outlook - The company anticipates stable growth in volume and price for 2026, planning to accelerate the launch of new products (such as seasonal craft beers) and focus on non-traditional beverage channels (like convenience stores and instant retail) [4] - Benefiting from a decrease in raw material costs and policy support for on-premise consumption recovery, the gross margin is expected to maintain an upward trend [4] - Continuous optimization of product structure (with an increased proportion of premium beers) and expansion into cross-category beverages (such as flavored sodas) will also be pursued [4] Industry Policies and Environment - With the promotion of policies to boost service consumption, the demand for on-premise beer channels (such as dining and nightlife) is expected to gradually recover [5] - However, attention should be paid to intensified industry competition and fluctuations in raw material costs, as these factors may impact the company's future profitability [5]

见手青，传说中一种美味与危险并存的菌类。一旦误食导致中毒，有可能看到色彩鲜艳的"小人"在眼前飞舞。 天猫啤酒行业负责人肥兔向《天下网商》介绍，2024年至2025年，精酿啤酒品类高速增长，电商渠道销售占比逐年增加，中式精酿更是线上爆红的典 范，"与传统工业啤酒市场增速放缓不同，精酿啤酒赛道目前势头正盛。" 数据显示，近年来，中国啤酒市场总产量徘徊在3500万千升附近，精酿啤酒市场却显著增长。以精酿等低度酒饮为代表，一度沉寂的"微醺经济"正在卷土 重来。 "小众口味"席卷啤酒界 多元化和包容度，是当前这股"新中式精酿"风潮的显著特征。 引领"茶啤"风潮的金星啤酒，已向港交所递表谋求IPO；乌苏啤酒推出大红袍、新疆酒花系列精酿，是传统品牌焕新的例子；盒马鲜生也上线了砂糖橘、 糖葫芦、红颜草莓等风味精酿，加入年酒消费热潮。 新中式精酿得以爆火，源自产品和场景层面的共同需求：一方面，咖啡、奶茶等品类的教育，培养了消费者对果味、小众口味的习惯和偏好；一方面，精 酿啤酒延续了它诞生时的"小众""艺术"概念，成为年轻消费者彰显身份的标签。 在云南，见手青的滋味有多美妙，"威名"就有多响亮。以至于许多人一眼看到菜单上的"见手 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the target price increases for several listed companies, with notable gains in the battery, automotive parts, and securities industries [1][2]. - The companies with the highest target price increases include: - Fulin Precision Engineering with a target price increase of 64.96% [3] - Weichai Power with a target price increase of 57.67% [3] - Industrial Securities with a target price increase of 33.33% [3] Group 2 - On February 5, a total of 21 listed companies received recommendations from brokers, with Chongqing Beer receiving the most recommendations at 3 [4]. - The companies with multiple broker recommendations include: - Chongqing Beer with 3 recommendations [4] - Huanxu Electronics with 2 recommendations [4] Group 3 - Four companies received their first coverage on February 5, including: - Nanshan Aluminum with a "Buy" rating from Guosheng Securities [5] - Jiantou Energy with a "Buy" rating from Changjiang Securities [5] - Hangzhou Bank with a "Buy" rating from Northeast Securities [5] - Xiechuang Data with a "Buy" rating from Huaxin Securities [5]

Core Viewpoint - Chongqing Brewery has reported stable revenue growth and accelerated profit despite a decline in beer production across the industry, showcasing its operational resilience through product upgrades, channel expansion, and cost optimization [1][3]. Financial Performance - In 2025, the company achieved revenue of 14.722 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.53% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.231 billion yuan, up 10.43% year-on-year [2][3]. - The weighted average return on equity reached 81.68%, an increase of 21.51 percentage points compared to the previous year [2]. - The company’s beer sales volume was 297.49 million hectoliters, maintaining a relative advantage in the industry [2]. Industry Context - The overall beer production among large-scale enterprises in China decreased by 1.1% year-on-year in 2025, indicating a challenging environment for the industry [3]. - Chongqing Brewery's sales volume grew by 0.68% year-on-year, outperforming the industry average, supported by continuous product structure upgrades and strategic initiatives [3]. Legal Resolution - A long-standing contract dispute with Jiawei Brewery was resolved through mediation at the end of 2025, eliminating legal risks and contributing nearly 20 million yuan to the net profit for the year [1][4][5]. - The mediation agreement included a one-time payment of 100 million yuan for price difference settlements and established a framework for future cooperation between the two companies [5][6]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has implemented the "Jiasu Yangfan" strategy, focusing on optimizing product structure, accelerating new product launches, and expanding non-traditional sales channels [3]. - Cost savings from declining raw material prices and supply chain optimization have led to an improvement in gross margin, which was 49.75% in 2023, slightly decreasing to 49.71% in 2024, and then recovering in 2025 [3].

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 第四季度为啤酒传统淡季，销量变化对固定成本摊薄影响较大，由于25Q4公司销量同比增长约2.8%，规 模效应下，估计对毛利率带来一定帮助。此外，26年1月公司与嘉威达成和解，公司拟冲回原计提预计负 债2.54亿元，同时计提一次性支付款等新负债2.17亿元，增厚公司25年归母净利润1907.96万元。历史遗留 问题解决后，后续公司有望轻装上阵。 展望26年，各项促进服务消费的政策有望推动现饮消费场景的持续修复，啤酒消费有望稳中向好。品牌力 是决定高端啤酒销售的核心驱动力，公司强大的品牌运作能力在外部压力纾解时有望充分体现。 25年实现营业收入147.2亿元，同比+0.5%；归母净利润12.3亿元，同比+10.4%；扣非归母净利润11.9亿 ...