随着啤酒上市公司的业绩披露后，啤酒增长承压已成趋势，这使得跨界成为提振业绩的一个选项。南都 湾财社-酒水新消费指数课题组记者注意到，除了上述提到的重庆啤酒外，近期的青岛啤酒、燕京啤 酒，以及更早的华润啤酒都有跨界方面的布局，这也意味着，在最近两年啤酒企业业绩增长出现疲态的 情况下，国内啤酒巨头都以跨界进行应对。 行业分析认为，啤酒跨界既是多元化经营趋势，对"第二曲线"进行布局将搭建企业增长的护城河，同时 也是增加个股概念吸引资金的重要方式。但跨界后的业务对业绩产生影响，最起码需要5年左右时间。 "啤酒之外的品类可塑性很大。"重庆啤酒总裁李志刚在近期业绩说明会作出了这一论调，这也是近两年 啤酒企业跨界后效果的预判。 据南都湾财社记者了解，啤酒企业跨界，与其主业近两年表现不佳有关。虽然今年一季度，啤酒龙头企 业的业绩出现部分好转，但是从2024年报来看，华润啤酒、重庆啤酒出现营收、归母净利润双下滑，青 岛啤酒陷入增收不增利，而燕京啤酒虽然归母净利润大增，但是公司营收并未出现较大幅度增长。 除了业绩数据外，啤酒上市公司的销量同样出现回落，2024年除了燕京啤酒增长1.6%外，华润啤酒下 滑2.5%、青岛啤酒下滑5. ...

食品丨市场观察 本周看点： -植物蛋白饮料巨头陷转型困局； -从计划经济到全球化：中国调味品TOP企业的进阶之路； -这届年轻人爱上"水替式"养生，用"减负"来"加码健康"。 行业 环境 1.植物蛋白饮 料巨 头陷转型困局 关键词：植物蛋白饮料,市场竞争加剧,营收净利润变化,大单品增长乏力,渠道品牌壁垒 概要：20 24年植物蛋白饮料行业呈现分化趋势，四家上市公司业绩各异：养元饮品净 利润增 长但营收略降，维维股份优化渠道后利润翻倍，承德露露双增，欢乐家双降。业内人士指出， 传统植物饮料受场景限制、淡旺季影响明显，且面临新兴品类竞争与同质化挑战。不过，健康 属性产品和新型植物奶需求上升，国际市场提供新机遇，企业需通过差异化创新满足年轻消费 者需求，推动行业发展。 2.从计划经济到全球化：中国调味品TOP企业的进阶之路 关键词：调味品行业,全球化,标准创新,出口创汇,现代化生产 概要：中国调味品行业结合传统工艺与标准创新，以海天味业、李锦记、珠江桥牌等企业为代 表，从计划经济时代的"出口创汇"到改革开放后的技术升级，逐步成为全球行业规则制定者。 珠江桥牌通过高新技术实现"智造"转型，推动南派酱油走向国际。行业从 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chongqing Brewery, with an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6][17]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.355 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.46%, and a net profit of 473 million yuan, up 4.59% year-on-year [1]. - The sales volume in Q1 2025 reached 883,500 tons, reflecting a 1.93% increase year-on-year, with a slight decline in beer business price per ton by 0.3% to 4,804 yuan [2]. - The report highlights a decrease in costs leading to a slight improvement in profitability, with a net profit margin of 21.6%, up 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 14.86 billion yuan, 15.21 billion yuan, and 15.61 billion yuan, with growth rates of 1%, 2%, and 3% respectively [3]. - The net profit for the same period is forecasted to be 1.28 billion yuan, 1.35 billion yuan, and 1.42 billion yuan, with growth rates of 15%, 5%, and 5% respectively [3]. - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, including EBITDA and earnings per share (EPS) estimates, with EPS projected to be 2.65 yuan in 2025 [5][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6][17]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.355 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.46%, and a net profit of 473 million yuan, up 4.59% year-on-year [1]. - The sales volume in Q1 2025 was 883,500 tons, reflecting a 1.93% increase year-on-year, with a slight decrease in beer business price per ton by 0.3% to 4,804 yuan [2]. - The company is focusing on high-end products, with revenue from high-end products (above 8 yuan) reaching 2.603 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.21% [2]. - The net profit margin improved by 0.7 percentage points to 21.6% in Q1 2025, driven by a decrease in cost per ton by 1.5% [3]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated to grow at 1%, 2%, and 3%, respectively, with corresponding revenues of 14.86 billion, 15.21 billion, and 15.61 billion yuan [3]. - The net profit for the same period is expected to grow by 15%, 5%, and 5%, with net profits of 1.282 billion, 1.352 billion, and 1.421 billion yuan [3]. - The company maintains a stable financial position with a projected PE ratio of 22X, 20X, and 19X for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3]. Market and Product Insights - The company is increasing its investment in non-current drink products, which is showing gradual results, while waiting for the recovery of current drink scenarios [3]. - The revenue from different regions showed balanced growth, with the Northwest region generating 1.178 billion yuan, the Central region 1.835 billion yuan, and the Southern region 1.231 billion yuan in Q1 2025 [2].

Core Insights - The Chinese beer market is entering a new phase characterized by stock competition and structural adjustments, with a projected 0.6% decline in production for 2024, marking the beginning of a "volume reduction and price increase" cycle [1][3] - Major beer companies are experiencing revenue declines, with the top five companies reporting a 4% drop in total revenue, while profit performance is increasingly divergent [3][5] Industry Performance - In 2024, the beer industry saw a 5.7% decline in revenue, making it the only category in the food and beverage sector to experience negative growth [5] - Key players like China Resources Beer, Budweiser APAC, and Tsingtao Brewery reported revenue declines of 0.76%, 8.9%, and 5.3% respectively, while Chongqing Brewery's revenue fell by 1.15% [5][8] - The total sales volume for major companies also decreased, with China Resources Beer down 2.5% and Budweiser APAC down 11.8% [8] Profitability Trends - Tsingtao Brewery managed a slight profit increase of 1.81%, while Yanjing Brewery saw a significant profit growth of 63.74%, contrasting with declines in profits for other major players [3][10] - Yanjing Brewery's revenue grew by 3.2%, allowing it to surpass Chongqing Brewery and become the fourth largest in the industry [10] Market Dynamics - The beer market is witnessing a shift in consumer preferences, particularly among younger generations who favor lighter drinking experiences, leading to a decrease in traditional beer consumption [12][13] - The restaurant industry is facing challenges, with a significant reduction in the number of registered dining establishments, impacting beer sales in on-premise channels [12][13] Strategic Responses - Companies are adapting by exploring new sales channels such as e-commerce and instant retail to meet changing consumer demands [13][14] - The rise of craft beer is also influencing the market, with a notable increase in the number of craft beer companies established in recent years [14] High-End Market Challenges - Despite efforts to target the high-end market, growth appears to be plateauing, with many companies facing competition from lower-priced craft beers [15][16] - Companies like Qingdao Beer and China Resources Beer are focusing on brand building and product innovation to maintain competitiveness in the high-end segment [15][18]

Group 1 - The company is accelerating new product launches in the beer category, focusing on high-end products and a higher proportion of canned offerings [1] - Multiple new products have been introduced since 2025, including "Carlsberg Smooth 5°" and "Ushuaia Beer Tianshan Original Brew" [1] - The company is also expanding into non-beer categories, such as carbonated drinks and functional beverages, leveraging production capacity and channel resources [2] Group 2 - The current consumption environment shows pressure on the ready-to-drink channel, with notable holiday siphoning effects [3] - In April, the overall restaurant industry faced challenges, with a slight decline in the industry prosperity index compared to March [3] - The company continues to promote high-end products in non-ready-to-drink channels and is diversifying its product offerings [3] Group 3 - Revenue forecasts for the company are projected at 14.83 billion, 15.01 billion, and 15.29 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.3%, 1.2%, and 1.8% respectively [4] - The expected net profit for the same period is 1.27 billion, 1.30 billion, and 1.36 billion yuan, with growth rates of 14.0%, 2.5%, and 4.7% respectively [4]

Core Viewpoint - Chongqing Brewery reported positive growth in Q1 2025, driven by increased sales volume and cost optimization strategies [1][4] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved beer sales of 883,500 kiloliters, a 1.93% increase from 866,800 kiloliters in the same period last year - Revenue reached 4.355 billion yuan, up 1.46% from 4.293 billion yuan year-on-year - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 473 million yuan, reflecting a 4.59% increase from 452 million yuan in the previous year [1] Product Structure Optimization - The company has a strong brand portfolio consisting of local and international brands, categorized by price levels: high-end (8 yuan and above), mainstream (4 to 8 yuan), and economy (below 4 yuan) - In Q1 2025, high-end beer revenue was 2.603 billion yuan, mainstream beer revenue was 1.55 billion yuan, and economy beer revenue was 91 million yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 1.21%, 1.99%, and 6.09% - High-end beer accounted for 59.77% of total revenue, continuing the positive growth trend from the previous year [2][3] Growth Opportunities - The company is focusing on its "Big City" strategy, targeting 39 major cities while expanding into over 60 additional cities - The strategy includes selling higher-end beers to penetrate new markets and extending product lines with more mid-range products [4] - The company has launched new products under six brands and is diversifying its portfolio to include non-beer beverages, although this segment is still in the cultivation stage [4] Market Outlook - The Chinese beer industry has been in a decline since reaching its peak in 2013, with a reported production of 35.213 million kiloliters in 2024, a 0.6% decrease year-on-year - The market is characterized by intense competition among the top five beer companies, which hold over 90% of the market share, alongside the emergence of niche and imported brands [6][7] - The company maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook for the beer industry in 2025, anticipating a more favorable environment for growth despite challenges such as increased competition and cost fluctuations [7]

Core Viewpoint - The beer industry is recovering in 2025, with Chongqing Beer showing growth in revenue, sales, and net profit in Q1 2024, despite previous industry downturns [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, Chongqing Beer achieved a beer sales volume of 883,500 kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 1.93% [2] - The company reported a revenue of 4.355 billion yuan, up 1.46% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 473 million yuan, an increase of 4.59% [2] - The revenue per hundred liters reached 492 yuan, maintaining a leading position in the industry [1] Group 2: Product and Channel Strategy - Chongqing Beer is focusing on product structure optimization and has launched nearly 10 new products across 6 brands in Q1 2024, with more to come in Q2 [2][7] - The company is shifting towards non-on-premise channels, with approximately 5% of sales transitioning from on-premise to non-on-premise, and canned products are growing at a double-digit rate [1][8] - The company is also innovating with new product lines, including craft beers and non-alcoholic beverages, to meet changing consumer demands [5][6] Group 3: Cost Management - The company has benefited from a decline in raw material costs, with a cost increase of less than 0.5% against a revenue growth of nearly 1.5% in Q1 2024 [3][4] - Chongqing Beer locks in raw material costs for 12 to 18 months in advance, providing predictability in cost management [4] Group 4: Market Expansion - The company plans to focus on 39 core large cities while expanding into over 60 additional cities, enhancing its market share [9] - Chongqing Beer is increasing collaboration with instant retail platforms like Meituan and JD.com to adapt to changing consumer behaviors [9]

Core Viewpoint - Chongqing Brewery has shown a steady start in Q1 2025 with beer sales of 883,500 kiloliters and revenue of 4.355 billion yuan, despite facing growth pressures in 2024 [1][2] Product Structure Optimization - In Q1 2025, Chongqing Brewery achieved a beer sales increase of 1.93% year-on-year, with revenue growth of 1.46%, and a net profit increase of 4.59% [2] - The company faced overall pressure in 2024, with both revenue and net profit declining, but has shown resilience in Q1 2025, enhancing management confidence [2] - The company has accelerated the launch of new products, introducing over 10 new items across 6 brands in Q1 2025, marking the highest number of new products for the same period [2][3] Channel Dynamics - The sales of high-end beer (priced above 8 yuan) saw a decline in revenue by 2.97% in 2024, primarily due to weak recovery in on-premise consumption [4] - Chongqing Brewery is focusing on expanding non-on-premise channels and increasing the proportion of canned products, which rose to 26% in 2024, up 3.5 percentage points from 2023 [4] - The company aims to increase the canned product sales ratio to 40% to better match market potential, leveraging both cost and sales advantages [4] Beverage Market Expansion - Chongqing Brewery is entering the beverage market, launching new products like orange-flavored soda in 2025, following the introduction of Dali Cang'e soda in 2024 [5][6] - The company is focusing on strong market areas for beverage product promotion, despite the current small revenue contribution from beverages [6] Dual-track Strategy for Domestic and International Brands - As a subsidiary of Carlsberg Group, Chongqing Brewery is optimizing its product mix under the "Jiasu Yangfan" strategy, focusing on strong market profitability and expanding coverage in growth markets [7] - In 2024, domestic brands generated revenue of 8.862 billion yuan, down 3.3%, while international brands saw a slight increase of 0.58% to 5.308 billion yuan [7] - The company maintains healthy inventory levels as of the start of 2025, with expectations for further optimization during the summer peak season [7]

Core Viewpoint - 2024 is a challenging year for Chongqing Beer, experiencing its first decline in both revenue and net profit since 2015 due to extreme weather and adverse external conditions [1][2]. Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 is approximately 14.645 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.15% - Net profit attributable to shareholders is about 1.115 billion yuan, down 16.61% compared to the previous year [2]. Market Dynamics - The decline in local brand sales is attributed to pressure on the dining channel, prompting the company to shift focus towards non-on-premise channels [5][11]. - Local brand revenue is nearly 8.9 billion yuan, down over 3%, while international brand revenue is around 5.3 billion yuan, showing a slight increase [12]. Strategic Adjustments - The company plans to enhance its product offerings in non-on-premise channels, including high-end products and canned packaging [5][17]. - In 2025, marketing expenditures will be adjusted to favor more attractive non-on-premise channels [18][20]. Production Capacity and Innovation - The Carlsberg Foshan factory, a global flagship brewery, has an annual production capacity of 500,000 kiloliters and is recognized for its advanced manufacturing and sustainability practices [10][11]. - The company has introduced new products and packaging, particularly for local brands, to meet diverse consumer needs [16]. Inventory Management - The company completed its inventory reduction efforts by the end of last year, positioning itself for a healthier market presence in 2024 [6][16].