Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for Chongqing Beer [4] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 met expectations, although profit was under pressure due to litigation provisions impacting net profit [2] - Revenue and net profit for 2024 were CNY 14.645 billion and CNY 1.115 billion, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.15% and 16.61% [2] - The company anticipates improvements in performance moving forward, particularly with the implementation of its "Big City 2.0" plan [10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the gross margin was stable at 49%, while the net margin was 15%, showing a decline of 0.6 and 2.9 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The operating cash flow for 2024 was CNY 2.542 billion, a decrease of 18% year-on-year [2] - Contract liabilities increased to CNY 1.780 billion by the end of 2024, up CNY 0.168 billion from the previous quarter [2] Product Performance - Revenue from international and local brands in 2024 was CNY 5.308 billion and CNY 8.862 billion, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +0.6% and -3.3% [3] - High-end products saw a revenue of CNY 8.592 billion, a decrease of 2.97% year-on-year, while economic products increased by 15.56% [3] Market Strategy - The company is focusing on expanding its presence in large cities and enhancing its product mix [9] - The non-immediate consumption channel has shown growth, while the immediate consumption channel faced short-term pressure [9] Earnings Forecast - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are CNY 2.62, CNY 2.74, and CNY 2.87, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 22, 21, and 20 [10][12]

Core Viewpoint - Chongqing Beer reported a disappointing financial performance for 2024, with both revenue and net profit declining, highlighting challenges in the high-end product market and ongoing legal disputes [1][2][3] Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 14.645 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.15% [1][2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.115 billion yuan, down 16.61% year-on-year [1][2] - The net cash flow from operations was 2.542 billion yuan, the lowest level in five years [1] - The company plans to distribute cash dividends of 1.162 billion yuan, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 104.21% [1][8] Quarterly Analysis - In Q4 2024, the company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit, with revenue at 1.582 billion yuan, a drop of 11.45% year-on-year [2][3] - The net profit for Q4 was a loss of 217 million yuan, marking a dramatic decline compared to previous quarters [3][4] Sales and Production - Total beer sales for 2024 reached 2.9749 million kiloliters, a decrease of 0.75% year-on-year [1][4] - High-end beer sales volume increased by 6.69%, but revenue from high-end products fell by 2.97% [7][8] - The company’s local brand sales volume decreased by 0.94%, while international brand sales volume increased by 9.95% [4][6] R&D and Expenses - R&D expenses for 2024 were 22.666 million yuan, a decline of 13.59% year-on-year, marking the third consecutive year of reduction [1][8] - The number of R&D personnel decreased from 1,484 to 1,058, representing a significant reduction in workforce [8] Legal Issues - The decline in net profit was partly attributed to a legal dispute with Chongqing Jiawei Beer, leading to a provision for expected liabilities of approximately 254 million yuan [1][3][11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6][17]. Core Views - The company is expected to face pressure on both volume and price in Q4, with a wait for subsequent demand improvement [1][2]. - For 2024, the company anticipates a revenue of 14.64 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.11 billion yuan, down 16.6% year-on-year [1][5]. - The company plans to continue increasing investment in non-dining channels while awaiting demand recovery [3]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company's sales volume is projected to decline by 0.75% to 2.975 million tons, with an average selling price (ASP) decrease of 0.4% to 4,923 yuan per ton [2]. - The revenue breakdown by product tier for 2024 shows high-end (above 8 yuan) revenue at 8.59 billion yuan (down 3%), mainstream (4-8 yuan) at 5.24 billion yuan (down 1%), and economy (below 4 yuan) at 330 million yuan (up 16%) [2]. - The company’s net profit margin for 2024 is expected to decrease by 2.9 percentage points to 15.4%, with a gross margin decline of 0.6 percentage points [3]. Future Projections - Revenue growth rates for 2025 to 2027 are projected at 1%, 2%, and 3%, respectively, with corresponding revenues of 14.86 billion, 15.23 billion, and 15.69 billion yuan [3]. - Net profit growth rates for the same period are expected to be 15%, 3%, and 4%, with net profits of 1.29 billion, 1.32 billion, and 1.37 billion yuan [3]. Key Financial Metrics - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 2.30 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 24.53 [5][6]. - The company’s total assets are expected to be 10.97 billion yuan in 2024, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 77.63% [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chongqing Beer (600132.CH) with a target price of RMB 69.2, representing a potential upside of 15.7% from the current price of RMB 59.8 [2][5][12]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the weak performance in Q4 2024 was primarily due to the company's proactive inventory clearance, which has now returned to a healthier level. The sales performance in Q1 2025 is expected to be stable, and the company is projected to perform better in 2025 compared to 2024 due to a lower sales base in the second half of the year [1][5]. - The company is making progress in adjusting its product and channel structure, with expectations for more positive changes by 2026. The growth of brands like Lebao and regional products is helping to balance the product mix, which has been heavily reliant on the high-end product Uusu [1][5][11]. - The report highlights a shift in sales channels, with the proportion of on-premise sales decreasing from 55% in 2019 to 44% in 2024. The company plans to continue expanding its off-premise channels in 2025 through new product launches and marketing innovations [5][11]. Financial Performance and Forecast - For 2025, the report forecasts a revenue of RMB 14,937 million, reflecting a 2.0% year-on-year growth, while the net profit is expected to be RMB 1,157 million, a 3.8% increase from 2024 [7][9]. - The average selling price is projected to remain under pressure due to weak market demand for high-end beers, despite a favorable outlook on raw material costs [5][11]. - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, including a projected gross margin of 42.1% for 2025, with a stable cost structure anticipated due to declining barley prices [7][9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chongqing Beer (600132.CH) with a target price of RMB 69.2, representing a potential upside of 15.7% from the current price of RMB 59.8 [2][5][12]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the weak performance in Q4 2024 was primarily due to the company's proactive inventory clearance, which has now returned to a healthier level. The sales performance in Q1 2025 is expected to be stable, and the company is projected to perform better in 2025 compared to 2024 due to a lower sales base in the second half of the year [1][5]. - The company is adjusting its product and channel structure, which is expected to lead to more positive changes by 2026. The growth of brands like Lebao and regional products is helping to balance the product mix, which has been heavily reliant on the high-end product "Wusu" [1][5][7]. - The report highlights a shift in sales channels, with the on-trade channel's share decreasing from 55% in 2019 to 44% in 2024. The company plans to continue expanding its off-trade channels in 2025, which will help mitigate the impact of declining foot traffic in on-trade channels [5][11]. Financial Performance and Forecast - For 2025, the report forecasts a revenue of RMB 14,937 million, reflecting a 2.0% year-on-year growth, while the net profit is expected to be RMB 1,157 million, a 3.8% increase from 2024 [7][9]. - The average selling price is projected to remain under pressure due to weak market demand for high-end beers, despite a favorable outlook on raw material costs [5][9]. - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, including a projected gross margin of 42.1% for 2025, with a stable cost structure anticipated due to declining barley prices [7][10]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The report notes that the company is focusing on enhancing its market share in key cities while maintaining a consistent number of cities covered in 2025. This strategy aims to deepen market penetration and improve brand visibility [5][11]. - The competitive landscape is highlighted, with the company facing challenges from market competition and the need to improve its product structure to sustain growth [5][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company reported total revenue of 14.645 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.115 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.15% and 16.61% respectively [1] - The company aims to expand its market share and is optimistic about industry recovery in 2025, driven by improved consumer demand and strategic initiatives in high-end non-consumption channels [4] - The company has experienced a slight decline in gross margin due to increased depreciation costs from the new factory and pressure on beer prices, with a gross margin decrease of 0.57 percentage points [3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 14.937 billion yuan, 15.206 billion yuan, and 15.457 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 2.0%, 1.8%, and 1.7% respectively [5] - Expected net profits for the same years are 1.285 billion yuan, 1.340 billion yuan, and 1.388 billion yuan, with growth rates of 15.3%, 4.3%, and 3.6% respectively [5] Market Position and Strategy - The company maintained its market share despite a 0.75% decline in sales volume, achieving a market share increase of approximately 0.3 percentage points [2] - The company is actively promoting high-end products and enhancing its product matrix and digital marketing strategies to adapt to changing market conditions [2][4] Financial Metrics - The company reported a slight decrease in beer price per ton by 1.14%, with revenue from high-end, mainstream, and economy beers showing varied performance [2] - The company has a high dividend payout ratio of 104% for 2024, indicating strong cash flow management [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Chongqing Beer is maintained as "Buy" [8] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 met expectations, with revenue of 14.645 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.15%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.115 billion yuan, down 16.61% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 1.582 billion yuan, a decline of 11.45% year-on-year, and a net loss of 217 million yuan, compared to a loss of 7 million yuan in the same period last year. The lower net profit was primarily due to a provision for expected liabilities of 254 million yuan related to litigation [1] Summary by Sections Revenue and Sales Performance - In 2024, the total sales volume was 2.9749 million tons, a decrease of 0.75% year-on-year, with an average price of 4,923 yuan per ton, down 0.40% year-on-year. The fourth quarter sales volume was 317,900 tons, a decline of 8.07% year-on-year, with an average price of 4,975 yuan per ton, down 3.68% year-on-year. The high-end beer sales ratio increased, with premium revenue down 2.97% (volume up 1.37%, price down 4.3%), mainstream revenue down 1.02% (volume down 3.81%, price up 2.9%), and economy revenue up 15.56% (volume up 13.49%, price up 1.8%) [2] Regional Performance - The South region performed relatively well, while the Northwest and Central regions faced challenges. In 2024, the Northwest, Central, and South regions generated revenues of 3.884 billion, 5.969 billion, and 4.316 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -3.46%, -1.88%, and -0.42%. In Q4 2024, revenues were 211 million, 620 million, and 631 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -17.47%, -15.57%, and -8.59%. The South region's revenue share increased by 0.45 percentage points to 30.46%, mainly driven by tourism recovery in regions like Yunnan and Guangxi [3] Profitability and Costs - The company's gross margin and net profit margin in 2024 decreased by 0.58 and 2.94 percentage points to 48.57% and 15.36%, respectively. In Q4 2024, the gross margin and net profit margin decreased by 5.42 and 26.53 percentage points to 43.38% and -26.38%, respectively. The cost per ton based on operating costs was 2,532 yuan, up 0.72% year-on-year, while the cost per ton for beer business was 2,396 yuan, down 1.06% year-on-year [4][5] Future Outlook - For Q1 2025, a slight growth is expected, with beer consumption showing signs of recovery. The company anticipates a modest increase in revenue and profit for the first quarter. For the full year 2025, growth in sales is expected to be driven by the recovery of dining scenarios, with stable expense ratios. The cost per ton will need to be monitored based on sales performance, with potential increases in depreciation and amortization costs from the Foshan factory, although improvements in raw material procurement costs and transportation costs may offset some of these increases [6] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The revenue growth rates for 2025-2027 are projected at 2.0%, 2.6%, and 2.6%, while the net profit growth rates are expected to be 14.4%, 4.4%, and 4.3%. The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 2.6, 2.8, and 2.9 yuan per share, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 22.7, 21.7, and 20.8 times, respectively. The current valuation is considered cost-effective, supporting the "Buy" rating [7]

盈利预测与投资建议 维持稳健高分红比例，或有事项影响落地 核心观点 公司主要财务信息 | 风险提示 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业收入(百万元) | （此处简单列示风险，正文需单独对风险提示详细展开描述） 14,815 | 14,645 | 15,057 | 15,428 | 15,737 | | 同比增长 (%) | 5.5% | -1.1% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.0% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 3,353 | 3,185 | 3,346 | 3,531 | 3,699 | | 同比增长 (%) | 1.6% | -5.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.8% | | 归属母公司净利润(百万元) | 1,337 | 1,115 | 1,352 | 1,427 | 1,497 | | 同比增长 (%) | 5.8% | -16.6% | 21.3% | 5.6% | 4.8% | | 每股收益（元） | 2.76 | 2 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·食品饮料 重庆啤酒（600132） 2024 年报点评：符合预期，期待改善 2025 年 04 月 04 日 增持（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 14815 | 14645 | 14844 | 15085 | 15340 | | 同比（%） | 5.53 | (1.15) | 1.36 | 1.63 | 1.69 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1337 | 1115 | 1266 | 1310 | 1345 | | 同比（%） | 5.78 | (16.61) | 13.59 | 3.50 | 2.67 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 2.76 | 2.30 | 2.62 | 2.71 | 2.78 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 21.51 | 25.79 | 22.71 | 21.94 | 21.37 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summ ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·食品饮料 重庆啤酒（600132） 2024 年报点评：符合预期，期待改善 2025 年 04 月 04 日 增持（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 14815 | 14645 | 14844 | 15085 | 15340 | | 同比（%） | 5.53 | (1.15) | 1.36 | 1.63 | 1.69 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1337 | 1115 | 1266 | 1310 | 1345 | | 同比（%） | 5.78 | (16.61) | 13.59 | 3.50 | 2.67 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 2.76 | 2.30 | 2.62 | 2.71 | 2.78 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 21.51 | 25.79 | 22.71 | 21.94 | 21.37 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summ ...