机构：中金公司 研究员：Yan CHEN Preannounced earnings down 38% YoY for A-shares Yankuang Energy Group preannounced its 1H25 results, estimating that its net profit attributable to shareholders fell about 38% YoY to Rmb4.65bn and recurring attributable net profit declined 39% YoY to Rmb4.4bn under Chinese accounting standards. The decline in earnings was slightly sharper than we expected, which we attribute to falling coal prices and sales volume amid weak demand. Trends to watch Easing supply and demand conditions wei ...

Core Viewpoint - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (兖矿能源) is experiencing a significant decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to falling coal prices and a supply-demand imbalance in the coal market [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company expects a net profit of approximately 4.65 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a decrease of about 2.9 billion yuan compared to 7.6 billion yuan in the same period last year, representing a year-on-year decline of 38% [1]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the company's net profit was 2.71 billion yuan, down 27.89% from the previous year [2]. Group 2: Coal Market Analysis - The decline in performance is attributed to a downward trend in coal prices, with the domestic coal market experiencing a supply-demand imbalance since 2025 [2][4]. - The price of Q5000 thermal coal in Shandong dropped to 535-560 yuan per ton by June 27, 2025, a decrease of 162.5 yuan per ton (22.89%) from the end of 2024, with an average price of approximately 619.35 yuan per ton, down 184.37 yuan per ton (22.94%) year-on-year [2]. - Overall, coal prices fell by more than 20% in the first half of 2025 [3]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - The oversupply in the coal market is due to high domestic coal production and record-high port coal inventories, despite a slight decrease in imported coal [4]. - Demand for coal is primarily driven by non-electric industries and fluctuating speculative demand from traders, with limited demand from the power sector [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the coal market may see some improvement in the second half of 2025, with potential demand increases during peak seasons, although the overall supply-demand imbalance is expected to persist [4]. - The chemical business of Yanzhou Coal Mining Company is showing positive growth, with production of chemical products reaching 2.414 million tons, an increase of 11.59%, and sales of 2.018 million tons, up 7.27% year-on-year [5]. Group 5: Chemical Business Performance - The chemical segment, while smaller compared to coal operations, has been performing well, contributing approximately 500 million yuan in revenue in the first quarter of 2025 [5]. - The decline in coal prices has reduced costs for the chemical business, as about 70% of its costs are linked to coal prices, providing support for profitability [5].

金融界消息 截至2025年8月14日收盘，兖矿能源（600188）报收于13.07元，下跌1.58%，换手率 0.58%，成交量34.25万手，成交金额4.51亿元。 天眼查商业履历信息显示，兖矿能源集团股份有限公司，成立于1997年，位于济宁市，是一家以从事煤 炭开采和洗选业为主的企业。企业注册资本1003986.0402万人民币，实缴资本1003748.05万人民币。公 司法定代表人为李伟。 通过天眼查大数据分析，兖矿能源集团股份有限公司共对外投资了60家企业，参与招投标项目5000次， 知识产权方面有商标信息256条，专利信息2197条，此外企业还拥有行政许可49个。 来源：金融界 资金流向方面，今日主力资金净流出4032.46万元，占比成交额8.94%。其中，超大单净流出1953.79万 元、占成交额4.33%，大单净流出2078.67万元、占成交额4.61%，中单净流出流入1316.52万元、占成交 额2.92%，小单净流入2715.93万元、占成交额6.02%。 兖矿能源最新一期业绩显示，截至2025一季报，公司营业总收入303.12亿元、同比减少23.53%，归属净 利润27.10亿元，同比减少 ...

煤炭巨头兖矿能源（600188）（SH600188，股价13.07元，市值1312亿元）发布的一则半年度业绩预减 公告，为本就处于下行周期的煤炭市场再添一丝寒意。 8月13日晚间，兖矿能源表示，按中国会计准则初步测算，公司预计2025年上半年实现归母净利润约 46.5亿元，与上年同期的76亿元相比，大幅减少约29亿元，同比降幅达38%。 这一业绩滑坡并非偶然。自2025年以来，受国内外宏观经济、能源结构转型及市场供需关系变化等多重 因素影响，整个煤炭行业已进入深度调整期。面对行业寒冬，即便是兖矿能源这样的龙头企业也感受到 了巨大经营压力。 面对困境，兖矿能源并非坐以待毙。公司通过"优化生产组织扩能增量"，力图以量补价。2025年第一季 度，集团商品煤产量达到3680万吨，同比增加6.26%。然而，在价格的剧烈下挫面前，产量的增长显得 杯水车薪，未能扭转利润下滑的局面。 多元化尚未"挑起大梁" 《每日经济新闻》记者注意到，兖矿能源今年一季度的业绩已现疲态，归母净利润同比下降27.89%。 如今，半年度业绩预告的降幅进一步扩大，凸显了行业下行周期中市场对公司的严峻考验。在主业承压 的背景下，兖矿能源的化工等多元化 ...

Group 1 - The company expects a decline in net profit for 1H25, with a forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.65 billion yuan, down approximately 38% year-on-year, and a non-recurring net profit of 4.4 billion yuan, down 39% year-on-year, primarily due to falling coal prices and weak demand leading to a decrease in coal sales [1] - The market is experiencing a loose supply-demand situation, which has pressured coking coal prices. National coal production increased by 5.4% year-on-year in 1H25, while demand remained weak, with power generation down 2.4% and crude steel production down 3.0% year-on-year [1] - The company's coal sales declined due to weak demand, with total coal sales in 1H25 down 4.9% year-on-year to 64.56 million tons, despite a 6.5% increase in coal production [1] Group 2 - Since 3Q25, coal prices have rebounded due to increased demand for electricity during peak season, with the price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal rising from 615 yuan/ton at the end of June to 694 yuan/ton as of August 13, indicating a potential recovery in company profits [2] - The expectation of further tightening supply in the domestic market may lead to a more balanced coal supply-demand situation, supporting a sustained increase in thermal coal prices and improving company profitability compared to 2Q25 [2] Group 3 - The company's earnings forecast and valuation remain largely unchanged, with the current stock price corresponding to a P/E ratio of 14.3x/12.2x for A-shares and 9.9x/8.1x for H-shares for 2025E/26E [3] - The target price for A/H shares is maintained at 16.00 yuan for A-shares and 10.00 HKD for H-shares, implying a 20% upside for A-shares and a 3% upside for H-shares based on the 2025E/26E P/E ratios [3]

港股煤炭股普遍走低，其中，金马能源跌近6%，兖矿能源、蒙古能源跌4.5%，中煤能源跌2.5%，中国 神华、兖煤澳大利亚跌1.5%。 消息上，双焦期货继续下挫。焦煤主力合约跌超5%，现报1225元/吨；焦炭主力合约跌4%，现报1712 元/吨。有分析指出，煤炭行业短期受制于政策与需求双杀，中长期面临能源革命替代，建议规避中小 型、高成本煤企。若参与反弹，需紧盯：1）冬季取暖季短期需求波动；2）稳经济政策下钢铁/化工阶 段性复产。(格隆汇) | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 へ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 06885 | 金马能源 | 1.460 | -5.81% | | 01171 | 兖矿能源 | 9.280 | -4.62% | | 00276 | 蒙古能源 | 0.630 | -4.55% | | 01303 | 汇力资源 | 0.285 | -3.39% | | 01898 | 中煤能源 | 10.180 | -2.49% | | 00065 | 弘海高新资源 | 0.580 | -1.69% | | 01393 | 恒鼎实业 | 0.064 | -1.54% ...

消息面上，兖矿能源发布公告，公司预计2025年半年度实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润约人民币46.5 亿元，同比减少38%左右；预计2025年半年度实现归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润约 人民币44亿元，同比减少39%左右。公告指出，期内公司优化生产组织扩能增量，主要产品产能高效释 放，挖潜增效精准发力，成本管控取得良好效果，化工业务实现较好协同增盈，一定程度上对冲了煤炭 价格周期性下行影响。但由于煤炭供需总体宽松，煤价较同期大幅下降，影响归母净利润同比减少。 兖矿能源（600188）(01171)跌超3%，截至发稿，跌2.98%，报9.44港元，成交额2.47亿港元。 ...

消息面上，兖矿能源发布公告，公司预计2025年半年度实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润约人民币46.5 亿元，同比减少38%左右；预计2025年半年度实现归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润约 人民币44亿元，同比减少39%左右。公告指出，期内公司优化生产组织扩能增量，主要产品产能高效释 放，挖潜增效精准发力，成本管控取得良好效果，化工业务实现较好协同增盈，一定程度上对冲了煤炭 价格周期性下行影响。但由于煤炭供需总体宽松，煤价较同期大幅下降，影响归母净利润同比减少。 智通财经APP获悉，兖矿能源(01171)跌超3%，截至发稿，跌2.98%，报9.44港元，成交额2.47亿港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company expects a significant decrease in net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to a decline in coal prices despite operational optimizations and cost management efforts [1][5]. Financial Performance Forecast - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 4.65 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a decrease of about 2.9 billion yuan or 38% compared to the same period last year [2][3]. - The expected net profit, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, is around 4.4 billion yuan, also reflecting a decrease of about 2.9 billion yuan or 39% year-on-year [2][4]. Previous Year Performance - In the same period last year, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.6 billion yuan [3]. - The net profit, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, was 7.3 billion yuan [4]. Reasons for Performance Change - The company has optimized production organization and increased capacity, which has helped mitigate some impacts of falling coal prices. However, the overall supply-demand balance in the coal market has led to a significant drop in coal prices, adversely affecting net profit [5]. - The company plans to adapt to market changes by optimizing production, enhancing cost management, and expanding marketing channels to create value for investors [5]. Other Important Notes - The financial data provided is preliminary and subject to final confirmation in the official half-year report for 2025 [8]. - The company completed the acquisition of a 51% stake in Northwest Mining in July 2025, which will be included in the consolidated financial statements from that date [8].

Core Viewpoint - Yancoal Energy Group Co., Ltd. expects a significant decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, projecting approximately 4.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 38% due to a substantial drop in coal prices and a generally loose supply-demand situation in the coal market [1] Industry Overview - The domestic and international coal market prices have significantly decreased in the first half of the year, with domestic prices for various coal types dropping between 23% to 29% year-on-year, and the Australian API5 index down by 21% [1] - The coal mining and washing industry reported a revenue of 1.24 trillion yuan and a total profit of 149.16 billion yuan from January to June 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 21% and 53% respectively [1] Company Performance - Yancoal Energy's coal production increased by 6.54% year-on-year to 73.6 million tons, achieving a historical high for the same period [2] - The company managed to reduce its self-produced coal sales cost to 318 yuan per ton, a significant decrease of 13.8% year-on-year, while maintaining a relatively high gross profit margin despite a decline [2] - The coal chemical segment showed growth, with methanol production up by 6.71% to 2.1271 million tons and urea production up by 18.6% to 1.25 million tons, with sales volume increasing by 21.3% [2] Future Outlook - Positive factors are expected to drive company performance in the second half of the year, with signs of coal prices stabilizing and beginning to recover, as evidenced by a rise to approximately 690 yuan per ton for Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal [3] - The integration of the newly acquired Northwest Mining Company is anticipated to enhance overall profitability, as it adds significant production capacity and quality coal assets [3] - The company has a clear growth trajectory for coal production, aiming for a target of 300 million tons, supported by both internal and external expansion efforts [5] Dividend Policy - Yancoal Energy has distributed a total of 85 billion yuan in dividends since its listing and has committed to maintaining a cash dividend payout ratio of no less than 60% from 2024 to 2026, with a minimum cash dividend of 0.5 yuan per share [5]