信达证券 2025 年 5 月"十大金股"组合 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 4 月 28 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 李春驰 电力公用联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522070001 邮 箱：lichunchi@cindasc.com 庞倩倩 计算机首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522110006 邮 箱：pangqianqian@cindasc.com 刘旺 传媒联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120005 邮箱：liuwang@cindasc.com 莫文宇 电子首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522090001 邮箱：mowenyu@cindasc.com 证券研究报告 策略研究 [策略Table专题报告 _ReportType] [Table_A 樊继拓 uthor 策略首席分析师 ] 执业编号：S1500521060001 邮箱：fanjituo@cindasc.com 程丽丽 食品饮料分析师 执业编号：S1500523110003 邮 箱：chenglili@cindasc.com 罗岸阳 家电行 ...

股票代码：600188 股票简称：兖矿能源 编号：临 2025-032 兖矿能源集团股份有限公司 关于召开2024年度股东周年大会的通知 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： (一) 股东大会类型和届次 2024年度股东周年大会 召开的日期时间：2025 年 5 月 30 日 9 点 00 分 召开地点：山东省邹城市凫山南路 949 号公司总部 1 股东大会召开日期：2025年5月30日 本次股东大会采用的网络投票系统：上海证券交易所股东大会网络投票 系统 (二) 股东大会召集人：董事会 (三) 投票方式：本次股东大会所采用的表决方式是现场投票和网络投票相结 合的方式 (四) 现场会议召开的日期、时间和地点 (五) 网络投票的系统、起止日期和投票时间 网络投票系统：上海证券交易所股东大会网络投票系统 网络投票起止时间：自2025 年 5 月 30 日 至2025 年 5 月 30 日 采用上海证券交易所网络投票系统，通过交易系统投票平台的投票时间为股 东大会召开当日的交易时间段，即 9:15-9:25 ...

| 日期 | 2025/4/25 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 12.43 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 26.00/11.90 | | 总市值(亿元) | 1,247.95 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 736.34 | | 总股本(亿股) | 100.40 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 59.24 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 25.5 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 兖矿能源 沪深300 相关研究报告 《成本管控对冲煤价下跌影响，关注 煤炭主业成长—公司 2024年报点评报 告》-2025.3.31 《Q3 业绩稳健海外高增，兼具高分红 与 高 成 长 — 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2024.10.28 煤炭/煤炭开采 兖矿能源（600188.SH） 煤炭量价齐跌致业绩承压，关注煤炭煤化工成长 2025 年 04 月 28 日 投资评级：买入（维持） 财务摘要和估值指标 | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E ...

Summary of Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (兖矿能源) - **Date of Call**: April 27, 2025 Key Financial Highlights - **Q1 2025 Revenue**: Decreased by 23.5% to 30.3 billion yuan [2][3] - **Net Profit**: Decreased by 27.9% to 2.71 billion yuan [2][3] - **Coal Production**: Increased to 36.8 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.17 million tons [3][5] - **Chemical Products Production**: Increased to 2.41 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 250,000 tons [3][5] - **Total Assets**: Increased by 2.3% to 366.8 billion yuan [3] Operational Strategies - **Cost Control Measures**: Implemented ten cost reduction initiatives, resulting in a 13.8% decrease in coal sales cost per ton [2][5][19] - **Chemical Sector Performance**: Chemical segment profitability increased by 440 million yuan in Q1 2025, contributing to a total profit of 536 million yuan [3][5] Market Outlook - **Coal Price Forecast**: Anticipated stabilization in Q2 2025, with potential recovery in the second half of the year due to domestic economic recovery and investment policies [2][6][23] - **Methanol Price**: Increased by 4.1% year-on-year in Q1 2025, expected to maintain a favorable trend in the upcoming quarters [2][6] Acquisition of Northwest Mining - **Acquisition Details**: Cash purchase of 26% stake in Northwest Mining for 4.748 billion yuan, increasing ownership to 51% through additional investment of 9.3 billion yuan [2][8][9] - **Resource Potential**: Total resource volume of 7.3 billion tons, with over 3.3 billion tons of recoverable resources [8] - **Expected Profit Contribution**: Anticipated net profit contribution of over 1.1 billion yuan in 2025 from Northwest Mining [8][14] Challenges and Risks - **Previous Acquisitions**: Acquisitions of Xinjiang Energy and Lushi Mining underperformed due to coal price declines and policy restrictions, with a potential shortfall in the promised net profit of 11.4 billion yuan over three years [4][11] - **Market Volatility**: Coal price fluctuations and regulatory challenges in deep mining operations in Shandong province [18][12] Future Capital Expenditure - **Investment Plans**: Total investment of approximately 32 billion yuan for two ongoing and two planned projects, with 6 billion yuan already invested [10] - **Debt Management**: Aiming to maintain a debt ratio below 60% while ensuring sufficient cash flow for operations and dividends [20][21] Conclusion - **Management Confidence**: Despite current market challenges, management remains optimistic about improving operational performance and shareholder returns in the coming quarters [23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [11] Core Insights - The report highlights concerns regarding limited coal demand during the peak season due to negative growth in electricity generation and recent tariff disruptions, suggesting that the impact of tariffs may not reverse the stabilization of coal prices during the peak season [2][7] - Despite the seasonal demand typically increasing in the second and third quarters, the report indicates that the actual demand may be limited, and the market remains cautious due to macroeconomic uncertainties [6][7] - The report suggests that the coal price stabilization trend is likely to continue, supported by steady supply and rising demand for coal, particularly in the context of domestic needs and risk aversion in the market [2][9] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The coal index (Yangtze) decreased by 0.59%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.97 percentage points, ranking 29th out of 32 industries [19] - As of April 25, the market price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal was 655 CNY/ton, down 8 CNY/ton week-on-week [19][47] Demand and Supply Analysis - The report notes that the coal supply in the twenty-five provinces was 5.076 million tons, an increase of 7.7% from the previous week, while the coal consumption was 4.765 million tons, a decrease of 1.3% [40] - The report emphasizes that despite the current low demand season, the upcoming summer peak season is expected to see a seasonal increase in coal demand, although the extent may be limited due to tariff impacts [7][8] Price Outlook - The report anticipates that coal prices may stabilize or even experience a mild rebound due to steady supply and the necessity for coal consumption, despite potential downward pressure from current demand levels [8][9] - The report also discusses the potential impact of tariffs on coal prices, indicating that while there may be some constraining effects, the overall trend towards price stabilization remains intact [8][9] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the coal sector for the next 1-2 quarters, particularly highlighting companies such as China Shenhua (A+H), Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal Mining [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of coal allocation, highlighting a stable economic environment as indicated by the political bureau meeting, which focuses on stability [1][3] - The coal sector is viewed as entering a "Golden Era 2.0," with core value assets expected to rise again due to favorable macroeconomic policies and capital market support [4][12] - The report suggests that coal stocks are attractive for both stable dividend investment and cyclical rebound potential, with expectations of improved demand and prices following policy implementations [4][12] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - The coal sector is seen as a stable dividend investment due to weak domestic economic performance and favorable international monetary policies [4][12] - The cyclical rebound potential is highlighted, with both thermal and coking coal prices expected to stabilize and rebound as supply-demand fundamentals improve [4][12] - The report identifies key coal stocks that are likely to benefit from these trends, categorized into dividend logic, cyclical logic, diversified aluminum elasticity, and growth logic [4][12] Key Indicators Overview - The coal market experienced a slight decline of 0.63%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.02 percentage points [7][9] - The current PE ratio for the coal sector is 10.6, and the PB ratio is 1.2, indicating relatively low valuations compared to other sectors [9] Thermal Coal Industry Chain - As of April 25, the price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal is 655 CNY/ton, down 1.21% from the previous week [15] - The operating rate of coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia is 81%, reflecting a slight decrease [15] - The total inventory at ports in the Bohai Rim is 31.09 million tons, down 2.66% from the previous week [15] Coking Coal Industry Chain - The price of main coking coal at the Jing Tang port remains stable at 1380 CNY/ton [16] - The average daily pig iron production from major steel mills is 2.444 million tons, showing a week-on-week increase [16] - The profitability of major steel mills has improved, supporting the demand for coking coal [16]

2025 年 04 月 27 日 政治局会议传递"稳"字当头，否极泰来重视煤炭配置 ——行业周报 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -29% -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 煤炭 沪深300 相关研究报告 《火电降幅收窄叠加进口减量，否极 泰来重视煤炭配置 —行业周报》- 2025.4.20 《贸易摩擦升级内需有望发力，否极 泰来重视煤炭配置 —行业周报》- 2025.4.13 开 源 证 券 证 券 研 究 煤炭 请务必参阅正文后面的信息披露和法律声明 1/31 《美国关税超预期致市场趋于避险， 重视煤炭攻守兼备 —行业周报》- 2025.4.6 张绪成（分析师） zhangxucheng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520020003 本周要闻回顾：政治局会议传递"稳"字当头，否极泰来重视煤炭配置 （1）动力煤方面：从价格端来看，本周动力煤港口价格小跌，截至 4 月 25 日，秦 港 Q5500 动力煤平仓价为 655 元/吨，环比下跌 8 元/吨，跌幅 1.21%；CCTD 动力 煤现货价（Q5500）为 66 ...

与云维股份遭遇同样困境的还有盘江股份（600395.SH）。今年一季度，盘江股份营业收入同比增长27.33%达24.82亿元，但归母净利润却同比降逾590%， 亏损额达1.05亿元。该公司同样将业绩亏损归咎于煤炭销售价格下跌带来的负面影响。根据公司经营数据，今年1-3月，盘江股份商品煤产量同比增长7%达 218万吨，但商品煤销量却同比下滑11.2%至168.9万吨，导致公司商品煤销售收入、毛利分别同比下滑33.26%、70.42%至11.35亿元、1.29亿元。 今年一季度，我国煤炭供给整体宽松，全国规模以上工业原煤产量累计约12亿吨，同比增长8.1%。 近日，多家煤炭企业披露一季报。据Wind数据统计，22家已披露业绩的煤炭企业中，19家公司一季度归母净利润出现下滑，其中15家公司同比降幅在两成 左右。 上述15家煤企中，云维股份（600725.SH）降幅居前。今年一季度，该公司实现营业收入1.49亿元，同比下降33.2%；归母净利润亏损331.2万元，同比大降 8359%。云维股份解释称，受煤炭市场竞争加剧等影响，公司一季度煤炭产品销售量减少4.19万吨，毛利润同比减少530.25万元，由此公司营业利润同 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the coal mining industry [3][4]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a 2.9% year-on-year decline in Russian coal maritime exports for Q1 2025, with the proportion of loss-making coal companies in the Kuzbass region rising to 57% [2][3]. - Global energy prices have shown a downward trend, with Brent crude oil futures settling at $66.87 per barrel, down 1.60% from the previous week, and natural gas prices also declining significantly [1][3]. - The report emphasizes potential investment opportunities in companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others, particularly those involved in share buybacks [3][6]. Summary by Sections Coal Mining - In Q1 2025, coal production in the Kuzbass region decreased to 51 million tons, a 3.6% decline year-on-year [3]. - The report notes that the total losses in the Russian coal industry could exceed $3.1 billion in 2025, doubling from $1.4 billion in 2024 [3][5]. - The report provides specific coal price data, indicating that Newcastle port coal prices are at $93.8 per ton, down 1.4% from the previous week [1][37]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong performance, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others, with a particular emphasis on those that are initiating share buybacks [3][6]. - The report also mentions the potential for increased investment in companies like Huayang and Gansu Energy [3]. Market Trends - The report indicates a significant drop in coal prices across various markets, with European ARA port coal prices at $92.3 per ton, down 7.6% from the previous week [1][37]. - The overall trend in the coal mining industry is characterized by a challenging market environment, with many companies facing financial difficulties due to rising production costs and declining prices [3][5].

证券研究报告 | 行业研究简报 gszqdatemark 2025 04 27 年 月 日 煤炭开采 俄煤：25Q1 海运出口同比-2.9%，库兹巴斯煤企亏损面至 57% 本周全球能源价格回顾。截至 2025 年 4 月 25 日，原油价格方面，布伦 特原油期货结算价为 66.87 美元/桶，较上周下跌 1.09 美元/桶（-1.60%）； WTI 原油期货结算价为 63.02 美元/桶，较上周下跌 1.66 美元/桶（- 2.57%）。天然气价格方面，东北亚 LNG 现货到岸价为 10.98 美元/百万 英热，较上周下跌 0.91 美元/百万英热（-7.7%）；荷兰 TTF 天然气期货 结算价 32.32 欧元/兆瓦时，较上周下跌 3.26 欧元/兆瓦时（-9.2%）；美 国 HH 天然气期货结算价为 2.94 美元/百万英热，较上周下跌 0.31 美元/ 百万英热（-9.5%）。煤炭价格方面，欧洲 ARA 港口煤炭（6000K）到岸 价 92.3 美元/吨，较上周下跌 7.6 美元/吨（-7.6%）；纽卡斯尔港口煤炭 （6000K）FOB 价 93.8 美元/吨，较上周下跌 1.3/吨（-1.4%）；IP ...