Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry in China is experiencing significant growth but faces challenges from climate change, necessitating effective climate adaptation actions and risk management strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Climate Change Impact and Industry Response - The express delivery sector is increasingly recognizing the challenges and opportunities posed by climate change, integrating climate risk management into corporate governance frameworks [1][2]. - From January 1, 2025, listed companies in Hong Kong will be required to disclose information related to greenhouse gas emissions, financial impacts, and risk management [1][17]. Group 2: Carbon Reduction Achievements - Major logistics companies such as JD Logistics, SF Express, Jitu Express, ZTO Express, and YTO Express have made significant carbon reduction achievements and launched various carbon reduction plans [2][40]. - JD Logistics has set a target to increase its annual procurement of renewable electricity by 100% by 2030 compared to 2019 levels, aiming for a 50% reduction in total carbon emissions across scopes 1, 2, and 3 [8][9]. Group 3: Specific Carbon Reduction Initiatives - JD Logistics has implemented a series of initiatives, including the use of over 10,000 self-operated new energy vehicles and the first large-scale use of hydrogen fuel trucks in the industry, reducing diesel consumption by approximately 600,000 liters annually [5][10]. - SF Express has achieved a carbon reduction of over 660,000 tons through green packaging and has invested in 1,918 reusable packaging containers, achieving over 1 billion cycles of use [26][27]. Group 4: Green Packaging and Transportation - The express delivery industry is focusing on green packaging and transportation, with JD Logistics promoting the use of X-series boxes that reduce raw material usage by 5% to 25%, resulting in a carbon reduction of 12,164 tons annually [24][39]. - Jitu Express has introduced biodegradable packaging materials and circular transit bags, significantly reducing carbon emissions associated with packaging [35][38]. Group 5: Future Goals and Collaborations - Companies are setting ambitious future goals, with SF Express aiming for net-zero emissions across its value chain by 2050 and JD Logistics committing to a net-zero target from 2023 to 2050 [14][31]. - The "Climate and Low-Carbon Transition Partnership Initiative" launched by JD Logistics aims to foster cross-industry collaboration for green upgrades across the entire supply chain [9][12].

Core Insights - The Chinese e-commerce logistics market is experiencing rapid growth, becoming a key driver for industrial upgrades and consumption growth in the digital economy era, with a projected market size of 1.4 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.8% [1][14] E-commerce Logistics Overview - E-commerce logistics refers to the supply chain system that provides comprehensive services such as warehousing, sorting, transportation, delivery, and returns for e-commerce transactions, aiming to efficiently connect sellers and consumers [1] E-commerce Logistics Classification - E-commerce logistics can be classified based on service objects (B2C, B2B, C2C), operational models (self-operated, third-party, crowdsourced, cross-border), and delivery timeliness (instant delivery, same-day/next-day delivery, standard delivery) [2][3] Development History of E-commerce Logistics in China - The industry has evolved from traditional delivery methods to intelligent services, with significant growth from 2008 to 2015 due to the explosion of e-commerce platforms, followed by a consolidation phase from 2016 to 2020, and entering a high-quality development phase driven by innovation since 2021 [4] Relevant Policies for E-commerce Logistics - Various policies have been introduced to support the e-commerce logistics sector, focusing on digital empowerment, network optimization, and green transformation, which are essential for the industry's high-quality development [6][7] E-commerce Logistics Industry Chain - The industry has formed a complete value chain, including upstream logistics infrastructure, intelligent devices, and technology service providers, with core operational links involving comprehensive logistics service providers and specialized service providers [8] Current Status of E-commerce Logistics Industry - The online retail market in China has shown steady growth, with online retail sales projected to reach 15.52 trillion yuan by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 7.19% [10] Competitive Landscape of E-commerce Logistics Industry - The industry features a tiered competitive structure, with leading companies like JD Logistics and SF Express dominating the high-end market, while the second tier includes the "Tongda" system (ZTO, Yunda, YTO) focusing on cost advantages [16][17] Key Enterprises - SF Express reported a revenue of 284.4 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 10.1%, while JD Logistics achieved a revenue of 182.8 billion yuan, reflecting a 10% increase [18][20] Future Trends in E-commerce Logistics - The industry is expected to focus on service quality enhancement, accelerated digital transformation, green low-carbon initiatives, and deeper global supply chain integration, driven by technological innovation and evolving consumer demands [22][25][26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the transportation industry [1][3][5] Core Views - The logistics sector is benefiting from the introduction of unmanned delivery vehicles, which are expected to reduce costs and improve efficiency in the last mile of delivery [2][47] - The shipping industry is experiencing a divergence in performance, with oil tanker rates rising significantly for smaller vessels while VLCC rates are under pressure due to geopolitical factors [1][20][68] - The air travel sector is entering a low season, but domestic passenger flight volumes remain above 2019 levels, indicating a potential for recovery in pricing and demand [2][40][42] - The express delivery market is seeing strong demand growth, with major players like SF Express and ZTO Express planning to scale up their fleets of unmanned delivery vehicles [2][51] Summary by Sections Shipping Sector - Oil tanker rates have shown significant divergence, with small vessel rates increasing while VLCC rates are under pressure due to geopolitical tensions [1][20] - The report anticipates a rise in shipping rates due to limited new capacity and potential demand recovery, recommending companies like COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy [1][68] Air Travel Sector - The overall and domestic passenger flight volumes have decreased slightly, but remain above 2019 levels, indicating resilience in the market [2][40] - The report suggests that domestic airfares may stabilize and recover in 2025, with recommendations for airlines such as Air China and China Southern Airlines [2][42] Express Delivery Sector - The introduction of unmanned delivery vehicles is expected to significantly reduce costs for leading companies in the express delivery market [2][47] - SF Express is projected to maintain a strong growth rate of 15-20% over the next two years, with a PE ratio of approximately 20 times for 2025 [2][51] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a focus on companies with stable operations and potential for steady returns, including SF Express, ZTO Express, and China Merchants Energy [5][27]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Aviation Industry - Boeing's aircraft delivery suspension has a limited impact on the Chinese aviation industry, with three previously suspended aircraft set to be delivered to Xiamen Airlines and China Southern Airlines. China Eastern Airlines plans to introduce 46 Boeing aircraft by 2025, with about 10 already delivered in Q1. These new aircraft represent less than 1% of the total industry fleet of 4,300 aircraft [2][4] - Market expectations suggest that tax rebates may compensate airlines for the delivery suspension, which has not significantly affected stock prices [4] - The summer 2025 aviation market is expected to see good pre-sales, with non-fuel ticket prices projected to achieve double-digit growth, although current seat occupancy rates are lower than last year [5] Express Delivery Industry - The express delivery sector is experiencing price increases, particularly in Yiwu, while intense price wars among major companies have not yielded expected results. The growth rate for Zhongtong's parcel volume in Q1 was only 19%, compared to the industry average of 22% [6] - The price war may reach a temporary bottom if price increases continue, presenting a good opportunity for investment in companies like Zhongtong, Jitu, YTO, and Shentong [6] - The application of unmanned vehicles in the last-mile delivery is rapidly advancing, with SF Express increasing its investment in unmanned vehicles, significantly reducing per-package costs [7][8] Chemical Industry - The CCPI price index has decreased due to oil price fluctuations and the seasonal decline in consumption. The index currently stands at 44,033 points, down one percentage point from the previous week [9] - U.S. inventory growth in March was 3.47%, indicating potential future demand decline, which may affect chemical product exports [10] - OPEC's decision to increase production may impact the chemical industry, with a focus on supply-constrained products [11] Fertilizer Market - Potash fertilizer contract prices have risen, with ongoing tight supply and demand conditions expected to maintain high prices. The price for potash contracts in India is $349 per ton, up $70 year-on-year [13][14] Refrigerant and Vitamin Markets - Refrigerant prices are rising due to increased downstream demand, with R32 reaching 51,000 yuan per ton. Vitamin E prices are expected to rise due to low inventory levels and production halts among leading companies [15] Precious Metals Market - Silver prices are rising due to increased tariffs on copper and aluminum, while platinum and palladium prices are influenced by industrial demand fluctuations. The gold market is currently volatile, with attention on potential risks to the U.S. dollar's credibility [18][19] Oil Market - Brent crude oil prices have risen to $66.65 per barrel, with expectations of fluctuations between $63 and $67 in June. Despite OPEC's production increase, global demand remains tight [20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for integrated players such as SF Holding, JD Logistics (JDL), and the leader ZTO, while adopting a "Neutral" rating for others like STO, Yunda, and J&T, and a "Sell" rating for YTO and Sinotrans-A/H [7][21]. Core Insights - The express delivery sector in China is experiencing intense price competition, leading to a decline in average selling prices (ASPs) and profitability across franchise-based players, while integrated logistics providers show resilience [1][21]. - The report revises the expected industry volume growth for 2025E from 18% to 20% year-on-year, driven by a shift towards lightweight and small parcels, and the growth of emerging eCommerce platforms [2][21]. - The report highlights that the competitive landscape will depend on strategic adjustments by incumbents and potential policy interventions to stabilize pricing [1][21]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The express delivery sector concluded 1Q25 with a 22% year-on-year volume growth but faced a 6-10% decline in ASPs across major players [21][22]. - The ongoing price competition is attributed to a trade-down trend in eCommerce goods and the need for express players to maintain capacity utilization [22][23]. Financial Performance - The report indicates that the group operating profit for Tongda players is expected to decline by approximately 12% year-on-year in 2025E, with SF being the only player projected to see double-digit profit growth [6][7]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for franchise-based players are revised downwards by 9% to 19% below Bloomberg consensus [7][21]. Company-Specific Insights - SF Holding is noted for its strong performance, with a 20% year-on-year EBIT growth in 1Q25, benefiting from cost optimization and a diversified revenue stream [1][40]. - ZTO is highlighted as the only Buy-rated franchise-based express delivery name, expected to stabilize its market share despite near-term earnings weakness [7][21]. - Yunda and YTO are projected to experience low-to-mid teens year-on-year profit declines, while STO and J&T China are expected to see flat earnings [6][7]. Market Dynamics - The report anticipates continued competition in 2Q-3Q25, with potential for strategic adjustments or industry consolidation to mitigate pricing pressures [1][21]. - The ASP for express delivery services is forecasted to decline by 6% to 8% across major players in 2Q25E, reflecting a slightly easier base compared to 1Q [22][23]. Volume and Revenue Estimates - The report raises the industry volume estimate for 2025E to 20% year-on-year, factoring in strong growth momentum and a shift in parcel mix [2][21]. - Revenue estimates for ZTO are cut by 6% due to less-than-expected impacts from gross revenue bookings, while Yunda and YTO see slight revenue increases [2][6]. Valuation - The report continues to value China express delivery companies based on a 1-year forward EV/EBITDA multiple, which remains unchanged at an average of 7X [13][15].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the logistics and transportation industry, particularly the integration of unmanned vehicles and the profitability of airlines [1][2]. Key Points on Unmanned Vehicles - Unmanned vehicle procurement is expected to more than double, leading to cost reductions in the last-mile delivery segment [1]. - Forecasted unmanned vehicle scales for 2024 are as follows: - SF Express: 800 units - ZTO Express: over 1000 units - YTO Express: 500 units - Shentong Express: 200-300 units - By 2025, leading express companies are anticipated to see unmanned vehicle scales double [1]. - The price of the E-series unmanned logistics vehicle from Jiushi Intelligent has dropped to 19,800 yuan, with a monthly subscription service for FSD starting at 1,800 yuan [1]. - Different procurement strategies are being adopted by express companies: - SF Express is utilizing a leasing model for quicker deployment. - The Tongda system is supporting franchisees in procuring unmanned vehicles to reduce costs [1]. - There is an expectation for further opening of road rights, which would enhance cost reductions in last-mile delivery through unmanned vehicles [1]. Key Points on Airline Profitability - The domestic airline revenue management strategy has begun to show effects, with domestic ticket prices experiencing year-on-year growth [3]. - It is projected that the year-on-year decline in seat revenue for listed airlines in Q2 will narrow to 3%-4% [3]. - Due to OPEC+ continuing to increase production unexpectedly from May to July, it is anticipated that airline unit fuel costs will decrease by approximately 18% year-on-year by Q2 2025 [3]. - The correlation between ticket prices and fuel costs suggests that the three major airlines are likely to achieve positive profits in Q2, with private airlines also expected to show year-on-year growth [3]. - There may be a decline in volume and price data following the exam period and the Dragon Boat Festival, which could present a reverse layout opportunity [3]. - Recommendations include: - Juneyao Airlines - Huaxia Airlines - Spring Airlines - Air China H - China Southern Airlines H [3]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the profitability turning point for airlines and the potential for unmanned vehicles to significantly impact cost structures in logistics [1][3].

Core Viewpoint - YTO Express (圆通速递) reported strong growth in its 2024 annual results, with revenue and net profit exceeding industry averages, leading to an "Accumulate" rating from Pacific Securities [1][2]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for the reporting period reached 623 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 19.67% [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 40.12 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.78% [2]. - The company plans to distribute approximately 12.3 billion RMB in cash dividends for 2024, which is about 30.7% of the annual net profit [2]. Business Segments - The express delivery segment generated 623 billion RMB, accounting for 90.2% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 19.2% [2]. - The freight forwarding segment reported revenue of 37.6 billion RMB, up 22.5% year-on-year, contributing 5.5% to total revenue [2]. - The air freight segment achieved revenue of 17.2 billion RMB, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 43.2%, although it incurred a gross loss of 1.7 billion RMB [2]. - Other businesses generated 11.6 billion RMB in revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 5.8% and a gross profit of 6.1 billion RMB [2]. Future Outlook - The company is leveraging technology to enhance its comprehensive capabilities, with business data for 2024 expected to grow by 25%, surpassing the industry average [2]. - The average target price from 13 institutions over the last 90 days is 16.66 RMB, with 11 institutions recommending a buy and 2 recommending an accumulate rating [2].

Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 69.033 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.67% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.012 billion, up 7.78% year-on-year [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of approximately 1.23 billion, which is about 0.36 per share, accounting for 30.7% of the annual net profit [1] Financial Performance - For the 2024 fiscal year, the company achieved a net cash flow from operating activities of 5.857 billion [1] - The basic earnings per share were 1.16, with a weighted ROE of 13.27% [1] - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 17.06 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%, while the non-deductible net profit decreased by 10.3% [3] Business Segments - The express delivery segment generated revenue of 62.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.2%, accounting for 90.2% of total revenue [4] - The freight forwarding segment reported revenue of 3.76 billion, up 22.5%, contributing 5.5% to total revenue [4] - The aviation segment had revenue of 1.72 billion, with a significant year-on-year increase of 43.2%, but reported a loss of 170 million in gross profit [5] - Other businesses generated revenue of 1.16 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 5.8% and a gross profit of 610 million [6] Investment Outlook - The company is leveraging technology to enhance its comprehensive capabilities, with highlights including a 25% year-on-year increase in express delivery volume, surpassing industry average growth [7] - The average revenue per shipment slightly decreased by 4.9% compared to the previous year [7] - The aviation segment's gross margin increased by 10 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved efficiency [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the transportation industry [1][2][4]. Core Views - The shipping sector is experiencing a rebound in freight rates driven by geopolitical tensions and a strong demand recovery, particularly in oil transportation [1][18]. - The air travel market is expected to see a gradual recovery in passenger demand, with domestic airlines likely to improve profitability as supply constraints persist [1][34]. - The express delivery industry shows robust growth, with significant increases in volume, particularly for SF Express, which is outperforming its peers [1][44]. Shipping Sector Summary - Oil transportation rates are expected to rise due to limited new capacity and strong demand recovery, with VLCC rates showing resilience despite recent geopolitical tensions [1][19][20]. - The overall shipping market is projected to maintain upward pressure on freight rates, with a focus on companies like COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy [1][19]. Air Transportation Summary - Domestic air travel demand is recovering, with passenger flight volumes nearing pre-pandemic levels, while international travel remains subdued [1][34]. - Airlines are expected to improve profitability as the supply-demand gap narrows, with recommendations for major carriers like Air China and China Southern Airlines [1][38][66]. Express Delivery Summary - The express delivery sector is experiencing high demand, with a year-on-year volume growth of 19.1% in April [1][44]. - SF Express is highlighted for its strong performance, with a 30% increase in logistics volume, significantly outpacing the industry average [1][44]. - The competitive landscape is expected to intensify, particularly among major players, but long-term growth prospects remain positive [1][45]. Key Companies and Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include SF Express, COSCO Shipping Energy, China Merchants Energy, Air China, and China Southern Airlines, with a focus on their potential for growth and profitability [1][4][66].

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery sector is experiencing increased performance uncertainty, but there are opportunities for valuation recovery among leading e-commerce express companies such as Zhongtong Express and YTO Express, driven by market share growth and cyclical bottoming of express delivery services [1] Group 1: Industry Growth Prospects - The express delivery business volume is expected to grow over 20% year-on-year in the first four months of 2024 and 2025, driven by structural demand growth from factors like small parcelization, reverse logistics, and new models such as live e-commerce and community group buying [2] - The trend of strong growth in business volume is likely to continue into 2025, supported by policies to boost domestic demand and support from e-commerce platforms [2] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Price competition is expected to intensify in the first four months of 2025, with a year-on-year decline in single ticket revenue of 8.3%, reflecting increased focus on market share among leading companies [3] - Despite the intensified price competition, it is anticipated that healthy competition will prevail, aided by regulatory measures against malicious competition and the lack of large-scale capital expenditures by express companies [3] Group 3: Performance of Leading Companies - Leading e-commerce express companies maintain strong competitive advantages due to asset barriers, cash reserves, and profitability, demonstrating resilience in price competition [4] - Zhongtong Express showed stable performance in Q1 2025, with a narrowing decline in market share, and attention is needed on whether market share will rebound in the second half of the year [4] - The leading position and potential for improved profitability of direct-operated companies are expected to provide more certain returns for investors [4]